The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Sep 1, 2017 - 1:30am
Pete
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Data correction @ cmegroup

From my EOD data provider:

CMEGroup bulletin for 8/25 shows 1278.50A Probably they Adjusted 1281.30 which was in error. Go with 1278.50

Given the position of the low, this would change many calculations...

Fri, Sep 1, 2017 - 11:25am
Pete
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Friday AM gold

The hourly chart shows a clear impulse wave up, completing after the BLS report. w.3 = 162+% w.1, and w5 = w1. Price appears at this moment to be trading back to the iml that was zoomed down from the high (best seen on the 5 or 15m chart). There is a volume reversal on the 5m chart, showing increasing selling at this resistance.

So it looks like we have a w.a down from the 1234.5 top. That top was made a couple of ticks beyond the 0 ml 3-4 of the 60m chart, which sets up some interesting a/r possibilities into the next trading session (the peak to low line is the ml also). I'll post that later.

I suspect corrective price action for the rest of the session. The mkt appears as dazed as I am by the swift correction from the high (w.a or part of A down). I was long at the w.4 low (1323.0) quite perfectly but did not realize the possibility of the w5 top. Got stopped with a 4-tick slippage on my stop at 1323.1.

If this idea is correct, there will probably be a w.ii correction into Sunday night that "should" lead to a very strong upward move early next week--we would be in a w.iii of a one- degree-larger w.3 on the daily chart.

There can be other interpretations at this point, but this is the simplest. As I hit save, the mkt weakness is apparent on the 5m chart.

Sat, Sep 2, 2017 - 5:37pm
Pete
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Prep for Sunday night holiday session

Here's my idea for the next session. Generally the strategy is to buy the low or sell the high of the day and allow the daily range to generate profits. Since the daily trend is up, buying the low is the primary focus. I'm reluctant to sell into this uptrend for a correction unless the chart is crystal clear and the risk is very low.

If the market is about to enter a w.c downward, support is apt to be found at/near the line intersects shown. Given the probable continuation of the strength of the trend, w.c might not exceed the w.a low.

Because the market peaked on Friday on 0 ml 3-4 exactly, that ml is useful as a center line. The first reaction line to it has been drawn in. The Babson 0-4 R1 line has also been drawn, as well as the modified Schiff fork for the initial ml channel downward (that tends to describe the correction to the prior impulse when the Andrews ml appears too steep to be useful). The 38%R level already held w.a, and may well continue to support further correction. Other Fibonacci levels are confluent with the 50%R level assuming the w.b top is no higher than shown, and it would very strongly support the market if reached.

The current position seems to me to be one where one might be able to hold a unit long for many days. If my market view is correct, we are in the unfolding middle of a third wave up, starting from the low of 8/25 (i.e., a 1-2, 1-2 sequence). And that is within a larger wave from lower lows. A possible target for the major pivot is the Major Pivot Far H currently near 1375, about $50 higher from here. The settlements have been accelerating away from the Major ML as we move into the "fast lane" of the Major fork (above the ML).

I included a reaction line from a potentially good 3p cl that suggests a move into the end of September toward 1395.

Sat, Sep 2, 2017 - 8:41pm
Pete
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A look back; new discovery

While I did see that the last major pivot low (July 10) was a 3x formation of downsloping lines, I was puzzled and disappointed that I could not locate an upward sloping geometric line at/near the low to serve as a support angle. Well, looking further back and deeper into the GCZ7 contract, I think I found it. It has implications, possibly, for how high gold might go in this run.

That darned MLH was touched exactly at the July 10 low this year!

UncleFester, your target line for a potential top (of "what you are trading to") turns out to be the sliding parallel to the IML of the chart. Gold may well stop there, at the SH. Yet, the message of this chart pattern is that gold has the equal potential to reach about 1400, and even edge out the yearly top of July 6, 2016 in the Dec contract, the important recovery high out of the Dec 2015 abyss. Having broken through a Major double top, gold will have a lot of steam behind it. Typically, it can go about the same # of points above the resistance zone as it reached below.

This would break the 1377.5 high of $gold.

It also suggests that a top about 1400 in the Dec contract could be it for a long time (months, probably). Or, possibly, gold accelerates through that point in a panic to higher levels.

Of course, what actually happens is what matters, but this possibility needs to be kept in (my) mind.

Additional note: A top of 1400.8 would represent an exact 1.382 extension of the leading diagonal for w.1 as described by Trader Joe some time back (end of wave 2 @ July low).

Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 4:01am
Solsson
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Happy Saturnday Maybe we are

Happy Saturnday

Maybe we are close to a top in the stockmarket, I don't know Mr Nenners trackrecord. My trackrecord is 50/50 close to a random guess. Looking at the chart, that seems like a stupid call today, maybe the news is about to support the outcome?

How about some major GV event coming soon, I don’t know, but I am keeping an eye at AM's GV dates.

JNUG is one of my 21miners just to test it's performance against real miners. So far JNUG is the best performing “miner” so far. If you are able to catch a trend it is a very nice vehicle to own. You only have to worry about decay if it's trending sideways. Congrats to Pining for his very early call, I think his JNUG position is up more than 50% by now.

To be honest I had to throw out a couple of rotten eggs in my portfolio. Company risk is a hard thing to deal with. Earlier in my “career” I just waited for things to turn around, now I’m trying to jump out as quick as possible.

********************'

Ok, that was yesterday, the site was down so I had to post it today instead. September the 3rd a GV event coming soon, checking the news, Kim Kong firing a nuke ...

Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 1:04pm
Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 2:18pm
Pete
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@Solsson

What were the rotten eggs, may I ask? I'm holding many shares recommended by Byron King, whose advice I purchased via Rickards over a year ago (I have not renewed...way too expensive primarily). I wonder if he has jettisoned some, such as KNT, which I still hold. Since you follow various companies' actual performance and news, could you share what the rotten eggs have been for you?

When I realized that BK's picks are generally not going to outperform the junior/exploration sector while it was still down trending and gold going sideways, I started to follow some 21 picks of his via weekly charts with a view to buying when the technicals looked good.

BTW, BAR.TO gave a weekly chart buy signal last Friday; I had been waiting on that one. Some of them started to perform weeks ago, and now they are picking up.

So, what can you share of rotten eggs? I'd be happy to share what I see of these.

Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 2:29pm
Pete
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A heads up and a request

The heads up: I discovered last night that the TradingView software used by cmegroup.com at their site has been upgraded to include Fib tools and even more neat pivot/EWave labeling tools. Anyone here can use this great, accurate software to post their charting ideas graphically. I find I cannot follow verbal descriptions of concepts...especially when I haven't been able to learn them in the first place.

It's very easy to post or link pictures here. I went the route of posting first to imgur.com (created my own account), from where it is easy to copy to clipboard their link to your imgur.com post, and then hyperlinking using the hyperlink tool in this blog's toolbar. One advantage of this is that I have a complete record of my chart concepts all in one very convenient place. I can help you get going with imgur.com.

The request: UncleFester, I am very interested in your FesterFan tech, but need to see graphic examples in order to understand it. The TradingView software over at cmegroup.com is extremely good and flexible enough I am sure to allow you to chart your fan concepts so that you can post them here. I'd like to see what you are doing.

With the TV software, you can choose the size bar you want, from a minute to a month, and put on whatever studies, angles, etc you want. If you haven't looked at it, I think you are missing something valuable. The only restriction, and it could be meaningful, is that cmegroup posts only individual contract data, not continuous data such as is used for $gold and $silver.

From my account at imgur.com I have started to print out for my own review the patterns I discerned often after-the-fact, with hopes that with further study I might see more patterns evolving in real time--for the purpose of making great trading decisions. Very often the correction low (p2), or the impulse extreme (pz) occur at the intersection of various geometric lines, and if these can be discerned in advance, in real time, then you really have something, whether a day trader or a position trader. Practice makes perfect.

Sun, Sep 3, 2017 - 3:53pm
Pete
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ESU7

ESU7 (yet to check the Dec ct) is looking very interesting for an intraday short play and possible position play. Remember that p2s are very valuable, and a Major P2 is even more so, if that's what it is...

Mon, Sep 4, 2017 - 3:43am
Solsson
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I will get back to you

I will get back to you Pete,

Is a $10 gap up in Gold good enough for a BP analog breakout?

Mon, Sep 4, 2017 - 8:56am
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I made a post at the DOTS ...

I made a post at the DOTS ... thread (in reply to a post referring to the Jewish Calendar) and the post I made goes into long term cycles that operate strongly in the markets covered by Setup For The Big Trade.

If you want to see the posts above and below to get the context it's here: #15497

I copied my post below:

argentus maximus wrote:
NW VIEW wrote:
The results seem to be what data one is hooked into. I like looking at the events of the 9th of Av, throughout history. I also have my "speculations". Jim

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/946703/jewish/What-Happened-on-the-Ninth-of-Av.htm

1st August this year? I expect the 9th of Av "tendency for ill winds blowing" fell on 29th July instead.

If occasionally 9 Av sees a catastrophe, and most years it does not, then a question arises as to what other thing occurs on some 9th of Avs so as to trigger the potential for dire events of that time. And of course this coincidence of 9 Av and something else does not happen every year.

it's interesting, also, that the tribes were in thedesert and on 9 Av some of them decided to not invade the promised lands. And the story goes, that those who doubted their god incurred his wrath and had to wander in the desert for 40 years , which happens to be 38 years extra.

Well 38 years is almost 39 years, depending upon what time of year you start counting and what part of year you end your count. And 19 years is the Metonic cycle, during which the sun, moon, and earth return to their original positions exactly, in respect to each other. So ... two Metonic cycles later, those Jews in that proto historic biblical story got to enter into Canaan. This is interesting because the 9 Av is a Hebrew Calendar date, different from the Gregorian calendar we use today. But being based on the Lunar month, not a 28, 30, 31 day month, it counts Lunar months. And naturally after every Metonic cycle the big event is at it's same interval as the sub period was the previous Metonic cycle.

So you have, by mentioning 9th AV, brought up 19 years ....

Are you aware that the Metonic period is also the period after which the Eclipse cycle repeats? The Babylonians used it in conjunction with their historical records to predict eclipses. And eclipses where when the god, the light in the heavens that makes all things grow and looks down upon us all, went away unexpectedly, which was construed as a very bad thing. So eclipses, and lunar 29.5 day months, and 19 years and 38 years are all tied together in this 9th of Av matter.

They were two Metonic cycles in the desert if the story is true. And that's interesting in itself, because the ratio between any Fibonacci number and the Fibonacci number two places lower on the series is 38.2%.

And since 19 years is ... well 19 years long ... it can accommodate an eleven year cycle and an eight year cycle within it. So every 38 years you would have two 11s and two 8s. But interestingly, a pair of those elevens takes you very close to the 22 1/2 year solar cycle, which is reflected in summer and winter warmth. That would be important for a tribe living in a desert I think, if they could figure it out. And those early Jewish priests and scribes were good at their Kabbalistic mathematics, having brought a great number of ideas from Babylon. We have other stories about how some of their number managed to predict famines and plentiful years in advance, achieving great wealth and power in the process. Gold told those people, and I often wonder if that was the bright light up in the heavens that is referred to, because, I always remember that Metonic cycle is composed of three in one, I mean the Earth, the moon and the sun, and one in three.

Three is also an important number in the bible. This is why I think that is so.

It's all so long ago. It's been told and retold verbally, and written in scrolls, wwhich were copied onto other scrolls later with minor differences, some scrolls kept and others thrown out, and translated, and edited. And even more important to observe, it's all encoded so as to hide the true meaning of the things being discussed, by wrapping everyday simple-life-in-the-desert storylines around the maths and the important numbers mainly so the gentiles wouldn't get it. Spread the goodness around, or not. Not everybody is a friend.

Gentlemen ... gentiles .... hmmmm. So much in that right there ....

By the way gentle folks. How long was gold going up in the bull from the 2000 low, and how long has the bear been since the 2011 peak? It seems to be an off topic thing to bring up, given the context in which you made your post in reference to biblical catastrophes recurring on 9th Av, but I just thought I'd mention it.

In case you have read the above, and think those time periods I mentioned are not applicable to the price of gold, in the modern day Comex Exchange, after the input of the powerful and shadowy players have been fully exerted upon trading, think again. The major low for gold in 1976 was followed by the next huge double bottom low at 1999 which was 23 years later. that was a double bottom low in 1999 and 2001. Let's pick a middle date for the bottom and say 2000. Eight years later was the interim (on a monthly basis) high at Jan 2008, followed by a buying point. Then the bull resumed to make top in July 2011 which was eleven years after the bottom at 1999/2000/2001.

Let's go back to the 1980s, but look at the top. That was at 961.60 in Jan 1980. The last high of that giant trading range was 1999, nineteen years after. If we move 23 years from the top into the future, as it was the future then, that takes us to 2003. This was missed by one month as I will explain now. The price of gold made its high for the month at Feb 1996 at 508.20, then began the final downswing of the bear, which involved a major breakdown in 1997. This Feb 1996 high was taken out Jan 2004 eight years later. The breakdown was replaced by a breakthrough the 1996 top to the upside on Jan 2004, eight years after. The 1976 low and the 2000 bottom can be bisected by a major high in 1987, which is 11+ years after 1976 and 11+ years prior to the 1999 low and 11+ years from that to the 2011 top.

There is a lot of reading and re-reading in the above paragraph. Some might get a BIG chart out and work it through a few times.

So if I then the top at Q3 2011, and add 5, 8, 11.5, 19, 23 years - are there any dates coming up in the near future that might be worth paying special attention to? Those years would be 2016 (Dec 2015 being the major low for the bear, or the bear to date) 2019, 2019 again, 2022-3 and I'll stop there.

Off the charts analysis, soon to be on them.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Sep 4, 2017 - 9:44am
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While we are on alternative

While we are on alternative calendars, here's a heads up on another HebCal event coming up: Yom Kippur 2017 is 30 September.

Those who have read Christopher Carolan's book The Spiral Calendar as I recommended in a past Setup post will know this sometimes matters for stocks. It refers to the possibility and timing or September or October surprises in the stock market.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Sep 4, 2017 - 10:39am
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Pete

I will try to take a look at the cmegroup tool, but with a wife, kids, and day job it will not happen soon. Still, I appreciate your interest in the bottom fan.

I also think this run has the potential to get to 1400 by the end of the year. A nice complete picture would have this wave 3 challenge the old 1377 high, wave 4 pullback, then wave 5 to 1400. Then again I'm trying not to be too bull headed...if you know what I mean.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Mon, Sep 4, 2017 - 7:18pm
Pete
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How often is a gap in the lead gold contract unfilled?

Almost never as far as I can see.

Neither do I like the look of the holiday trade bar, with close higher than open, after a gap up.

I'm betting that the gap will be closed, and then look out to the upside.

So far, the short is working out, slowly.

Tue, Sep 5, 2017 - 11:25am
Pete
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Gold 120m

This fork uses the min-2 daily pivots and appears to describe the advance well.

(Note that the holiday gap got filled)

Tue, Sep 5, 2017 - 12:00pm
UncleFester
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Pete

Logged in just to hat tip the filled gap. Cheers.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Tue, Sep 5, 2017 - 12:44pm
Solsson
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#Pete Giant

#Pete

Giant Turd No.1:

https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.knt/k92-mining-inc?post...

maybe the potential is still there, Papua New Guinea isn't my favorite country at the moment. Jumped out last week.

Giant Turd No.2:

https://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.sbr/silver-bear-resourc...

Two oligarchs stepped in and diluted the crap out of the company, no major potential midterm. I am out!

Tue, Sep 5, 2017 - 1:18pm Solsson
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September the 23rd

Virgo giving birth to a giant baby, Jupiter circling around in Virgo's womb for 9months. She got a crown with 12 stars even though Leo only has 9, predicted by the bible, Revelation chapter 12:

September 23 2017 Revelation 12 Sign l The Blood Moon Tetrad and Augst Eclipse points at the Sign!

Framed by Argentus GV dates of 21,22 - 24-26. Maybe Virgo needs a little bit of calmness during her childbirth?

Tue, Sep 5, 2017 - 2:56pm
Solsson
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I am a natural born gold

I am a natural born gold stock loser, bought back half my position in K92 after news ...

Tue, Sep 5, 2017 - 6:54pm
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Thx to Murphy for the heads up

Christopher Carolan of Spiral Calendar tweet:

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets