The setup for the big trade

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Sat, May 20, 2017 - 6:02pm
silverwood
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Ronnie Fattal's 5/20/17 gold and silver analysis

Elliott Wave Analysis of GLD, Gold & silver as of 20th may 2017

He's a real nowhere Man,
Sitting in his Nowhere Land,
Making all his nowhere plans
for nobody.

Doesn't have a point of view,
Knows not where he's going to,
Isn't he a bit like you and me?
Nowhere Man, please listen,
You don't know what you're missin',
Nowhere Man, the world is at your command.



He's as blind as he can be,
Just sees what he wants to see,
Nowhere Man can you see me at all?

Nowhere Man, don't worry,
Take your time, don't hurry,
Leave it all 'till somebody else
lends you a hand.

Doesn't have a point of view,
Knows not where he's going to,
Isn't he a bit like you and me?

Nowhere man please listen,
you don't know what your missin'
Nowhere Man, the world is at your command

He's a real Nowhere Man,
Sitting in his Nowhere Land,
Making all his nowhere plans
for nobody.
Making all his nowhere plans
for nobody.
Making all his nowhere plans
for nobody.

Sun, May 21, 2017 - 2:55am
Solsson
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Are you loaded up with

Are you loaded up with bitcoins? I am not, I wish I had bought it a couple of years ago, right now it looks like a speculation bubble:

I am pro bitcoin/blockchain-tech and such but near term bitCoin looks overvalued vs. Gold and Silver

Gold backed crypto currency coming:

Video unavailable

A good speech by Stefan Molyneux:

Bitcoin vs. Political Power: The Cryptocurrency Revolution - Stefan Molyneux at TNW Conference
Sun, May 21, 2017 - 3:46pm
Pete
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ES heads up

I have so little time to keep up with this forum these days, and I have little time for any market analysis. I'm holding all my metal, but will sell enough into a PM rise to pay off my mortgage. The days when my interest in trading was all consuming are over. But, from time to time I dip into the charts, and when something of genuine interest shows up I will post if I have the time.

When ES failed to make the ml at pivot e, it was a clear sign of weakness at the top and you had to sell the break of the lower parallel. Yet, it is possible that a pattern may be developing in ES for a top that looks like this one that happened in DX in January:

(see the lower chart) https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/661174#comment-661174

The similarity is the ending expanded pivot pattern that would be created with a new or equal high in ES; it could happen at the Babson R1 line of the (assumed) A wave of a 4th wave correction in progress (a la Trader Joe and Daneric). Note the strength of the 0-4 cl! The R1 may yet be reached is all I'm saying.

This setup could provide for a low risk, high reward entry (short) for an upcoming C wave. Of course, the B wave top could already be in, but a possible expanded pivot formation should not be ignored.

BTW, the 60 year cycle, James Flanagan's favorite, projects from the yearly top in the DJIA in 1957 to 7/12/17. Just a date/time frame to keep in mind.

Best wishes to all.

Mon, May 22, 2017 - 2:00pm
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CME Calendar for Gold and Silver COT etc

Remember the little guys get run out the end of month before, but the big guys can hang on for the final month. The little guys rarely get a good price, so that moment presents as counter trend.

Large specs are often wrong, but not always.

It's my understanding the market makers can roll direct and never have to convert to cash. However, if they are over their limits their end of half year/end of year accounting may document such a situation, so at certain times their power to dodge reporting is more restricted. In this way the "pulse of the comex" applies to it's owners too, as far as that goes.

Options at expiry either expire worthless (90% of them) or convert to a future position and cascade into the future delivery month's open interest.

LBMA does not disclose to retail. They can be used for a little cheque (check) kiting by the biggest guys.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 23, 2017 - 1:37pm
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Today's post is in the AM

Today's post is in the AM Blog..

Here's a shortcut link:

On the Nature of Cash, Bonds, Digital Cash, and the Derivative Market

By argentus maximus | Tuesday, May 23, 2017 at 6:26 pm

What factor(s) specifically give(s) a Federal Reserve Dollar Note it's value? A Pound Sterling coin it's value? A five Euro note? A T-Bond or Bund? How about a Venezuelan Bolivar?

What gives a currency longevity overcoming the attacks from external powers? Power? Faith? Reputation? The alternatives currently available, or lack of alternatives possibly? And when a new alternative becomes available, from where does it truly get it's value? From where does it derive it's value ..... ?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 24, 2017 - 6:03pm
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The view of Crypto-FX from a Central Bank's perspective

We constantly hear what bitcoin afficionados think. And I have made my position on this quite clear. I won't touch a private virtual currency using my hard earned money, not even to short term trade it. Past results for others won't persuade me on this due to the comparison with seigniorage and my sovereign opposition action expectations.

But external information may cast doubt upon the BTC fans, or upon myself. Information breadth is required. Reduction of macro to micro, while remaining objective, is one of the things I try to be good at in "The Setup for The Big Trade" thread.

What does the establishment think?

Read this for a first insight into a central bank view:

Bank of England wrote:
... in its original implementation, and still at the time of writing, Bitcoin is limited to between 7 and 10 transactions per second, or roughly 3,500 transactions per hour, perhaps sufficient to provide electronic payment services to a medium-sized town.11 Despite this, the real resource cost of maintaining the Bitcoin network is on the scale of entire national economies. O’Dwyer and Malone (2014) estimate that the total electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network in early 2014 was comparable to that of Ireland (roughly 5GW). Deetman (2016) further estimates that, at current growth rates in computing efficiency and popular uptake, the Bitcoin network could potentially consume as much as 15GW by 2020, similar to the consumption rate of Denmark in 2014.

On this basis alone, we believe that in order for a digital currency system to be socially beneficial over the long run, an alternative method of addressing the cheap talk problem in transaction verifications needs to be developed and adopted.

...

... central banks have always had the ability to grant universal access to their balance sheets through the issuance of banknotes.14 However, banknotes require storage and physical exchange for payment, and pay an interest rate of zero. And the existence of an interest-free financial asset, after accounting for storage and transaction costs, represents the basis for a lower bound (ZLB) on central banks’ policy rates. Various proposals for materially circumventing the ZLB have been put forward, including, among others, a tax on banknotes (Gesell (1916)), a managed exchange rate between cash and electronic forms of money (Agarwal and Kimball (2015)) and the abolition of cash altogether (Rogoff (2015)). However, no central bank has attempted to implement one of these schemes to date.

... our simulations will show, there are reasons to believe that, when searching for expansionary monetary policy options at the ZLB, the injection of additional CBDC would represent a promising alternative to negative policy rates, thereby removing part of the rationale for the withdrawal of bank notes.

...

... So long as banks remain necessary gatekeepers to the payment system, they will have the capacity to achieve systemically-important status if they manage to obtain a sufficient market share. But if a universally accessible and sufficiently large CBDC payment system were to be established as an alternative alongside the existing bank-based payment system, the hypothetical failure of any individual bank, however large, need not necessarily cause an amplification through the economy by impairing payments.

In the event of an actual bank failure, CBDC could also help to ensure an orderly resolution.

...

... Both central banks and private financial institutions are paying increasing attention to the emergence of digital currencies and the distributed ledgers on which they are based, as this technology may present an opportunity to improve the efficiency, resiliency and accessibility of systems that facilitate monetary and financial transactions. There are, however, serious problems with existing private versions of such currencies. These problems are not associated with the viability of distributed ledgers in general, but rather with their prohibitively high costs of transaction verification. Alternative implementations, such as “permissioned” systems, may potentially avoid these costs by stepping away from purely decentralised designs while still retaining many of the benefits. One possible application of such a permissioned system would be the issuance of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) — universal, electronic, 24x7, national-currency-denominated and interest-bearing access to a central bank’s balance sheet ....

Full paper is here:

Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 605

The macroeconomics of central bank issued digital currencies

John Barrdear and Michael Kumhof July 2016

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, May 26, 2017 - 12:59pm (Reply to #9976)
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Thank you for writing down

Thank you for writing down your thoughts on crypto. Especially as I believe it's far from your favorite subject. While I have to admit that my experience in capital markets pales in comparison to most on this forum, I did have some squabbles with some of the conclusions in this piece.

Looking at the people I know who are into Bitcoin, the reasons for buying are similar to the gold crowd. Expectations of monetary turmoil and distrust of authorities. Bond yields don't really factor in their decision making proces. This could be different for larger (institutional?) parties of course.

One could argue that an (failed?) attack by a sovereign against Bitcoin is something we just saw in crypto. The scaling debate is stuck due to the intransigence of Chinese miners. On top of this, China went after the leveraged trading on it's exchanges, Chinese exchanges halted BTC withdrawals and Bitfinex suddenly has problems with its Taiwanese bank (and Wells Fargo). It's interesting that Japan and Korea moved in to fill the gap in traded volume on exchanges.

I might be seeing ghosts here, but it seems that the US and pro-American powers are pro-bitcoin. With China (and other continental powers) at the very least uneasy about it, and likely against it.

With regards to states not wanting to let go of the seignorage advantage that they have: Imho, the traditional seignorage advantage that governments have doesn't make that much sense in the current age. Printing cash will have us go full Weimar in no time. The current system of bringing money in circulation through bonds only works if you have people buying loads of government debt. This worked with the savings of relatively uninformed babyboomers, but with a better informed and smaller labor force, I don't see it repeating.

Looking at the geopolitical environment and the questionable nature of the seigniorage advantage in the information age, an attack by all governments in concert seems highly unlikely to me.

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Fri, May 26, 2017 - 2:23pm (Reply to #9978)
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You think the ransomware

You think the ransomware attack (which just happened to somehow target hospital care centres for the people in a very scary way) and brought BTC to the news connected with that wasn't a combination of sovereigns in action? Who benefits?

Problem: Evil internet ransomware from bad guys we can't trace to put out of business. Worse than drug gangs!

Govt Answer - (All say together) -: "Look we like BTC it's so creative and all. But it's too anonymous for good people to want to be involved in. Here, look at this nice clean, legal, approved version we just introduced. As good as BTC. Works the same. But our one is clean and open and HONEST, and without lumping you in with criminal gangs."

And this too - "We will be working on a way to identify everybody who exchanges money into or out of BTC and all not authorized digi-FX. Nothing to be afraid of! We just need to be able to tax people correctly and fairly so they pay their fair share. And catch any bad guys who try something on like shutting down hospitals and stuff like that."

Bitcoin is just a brand name. All it needs is to get marginalized to avoid achieving critical mass. Competition. The odd court case. PR management. No problem. New brands suprass existing brands all the time, with a little help from our friends.

The blockchain technology can be used by anybody no need for BTC. It's good, but not exclusive.

IMO it's will be good while it lasts but it's tulips.

There was a news item doing the rounds. If you bought BTC x years ago you would have made 30 million bucks. I guarantee you every government department head, every politician, every spy agency executive who read that all thought the same "I could do a lot with that 30 M". One second later:"30M x how many BTCs? Well, Well! How did I miss out on that?" Next round will be theirs.

But we already had the ransomware attack, and more appear to be promised .... so they're not behind the curve, already busy at work.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, May 26, 2017 - 7:26pm (Reply to #9979)
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Well, that was also the frame

Well, that was also the frame that I was looking for when I first heard of the attacks. Interesting thing is that Bitcoin didn't get demonized afterwards. There was only the initial mention of $300 in Bitcoin being demanded. One could argue that this taught the wider population that Bitcoin can be bought in fractions(!). Afterwards there were people blaming the NSA, and some people suspecting or blaming North Korea.

And this too - "We will be working on a way to identify everybody who exchanges money into or out of BTC and all not authorized digi-FX. Nothing to be afraid of! We just need to be able to tax people correctly and fairly so they pay their fair share. And catch any bad guys who try something on like shutting down hospitals and stuff like that."

Here I agree with you. Being anonymous while using Bitcoin is a pipedream at the moment. Trying to evade taxes with Bitcoin is not something I would advise. This is also where the moral downsides of crypto come into play. It could make the world a lot more transparant, allowing tracking of all transactions. There are also anonymized crypto currencies (Eg. Monero, Zcash & Verge), but I lack the technical expertise to judge how credible the promises of anonymous transactions are.

All in all I think the cat's outta the bag. You could marginalize bitcoin, but the next competitor will rise now that the concept of trustless non-government currency has been proven. The declining inflation (deflation in practice) is a masterful way of social engineering and will ensure growth of the network. China tried (temporarily) shutting down exchanges, causing an explosion of OTC volume.

Some other facts that strenghten my suspicion that crypto is not against the interests of the anglo-american, western or perhaps trilateral elite.

Sorry to hijack the thread like this. While I'm still not sure whether I should be a proponent of crypto from a moral perspective, I do believe it should be on our radar.

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Fri, May 26, 2017 - 8:02pm
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@ Silver Surfer:I think

@ Silver Surfer:

I think you're totally right when you say the cat is out of the bag. And this enables given present day private crypto-FX an area to exist and be used, together with a reasonable sized population who will choose to use them.

So even if alternatives arrive displaying the official stamp of approval, there will exist a space for the private unauthorized crypto-FX so long as there are critical mass of users of it. Regulation will probably be designed to stifle and drag independent brands down while not declaring them illegal. They may work with use of fees to achieve the same ends and encourage the useage of "preferred" brands of crypto-FX. I am doing a lot of reading between the lines there! And of course, if they begin with interest bearing digi-cash, this would get the ball rolling for them substantially even if the rate of interest were very low.

A challenge is to decide which one will survive and thrive. BTC has the brand name for the competition present and future to emulate with Ethereum as the #2 contender right now. My take of the process of how the bull swings roll out through the brands is that this seems to be similar to the way a bull swing in stocks begins with quality and in 2 or 3 rotations it eventually rolls out into the insane growth stories, before it all comes crashing down. Maybe we can establish when the process of breadth diffusion within the different brands gets to a point that would predict such a crunch?

Given the inevitability that other brands will emerge, and that nation states will want to introduce their own brands, it appears to me that investment in the right crypto-FX technology which will be used to operate all crypto-FX types might be a better bet. But I acknowledge this is just how I see it so far. There are better experts than myself out there for research into this subject.

And what of the tensions between the west and the soviet-sino bloc? Will BTC et al be used as a currency weapon? I don't like to dwell on speculations like that but prefer in cases like this to focus more upon their individual charts. I might have a way to calculate price levels at which it comes to a stop. No proof until afterwards however and that's the problem.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, May 27, 2017 - 1:30pm
silverwood
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Ronnie Fattal Elliott Wave Analysis Gold and Silver 5/27/17

Dreaming about a breakout above $1300 gold!

Daydream Lyrics Lovin' Spoonful

What a day for a daydream
What a day for a daydreamin' boy
And I’m lost in a daydream
Dreamin' ‘bout my bundle of joy
And even if time ain’t really on my side
It’s one of those days for takin' a walk outside
I’m blowin’ the day to take a walk in the sun
And fall on my face on somebody's new mowed lawn

I've been havin’ a sweet dream
I been dreamin’ since I woke up today
It’s starrin’ me and my sweet dream
'Cause she's the one that makes me feel this way

And even if time has passing me by a lot
I couldn't care less about the dues you say I got
Tomorrow I'll pay the dues for droppin’ my load
A pie in your face for bein' a sleepy bulltoad

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold and Silver as of 27th May 2017
Sat, May 27, 2017 - 7:22pm
Pete
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Monthly Comex Gold

Gold is nearing a critical juncture. Next week's trade (end of month) and follow-through appear critical to the technical outlook. Go here: https://imgur.com/78DKwf6

Sat, May 27, 2017 - 7:23pm
Pete
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K92 bottom

Solsson mentioned K92 a short while ago. The chart shows a textbook, strong bottoming formation that occurs rarely but is very reliable--the X of the latest ML and the Far 2P line. The buy trigger is price reaching both lines (usually within a day of the X) but closing above both.

In other words, K92 has bottomed (high-probability thesis).

The upper MLH (red) is also the 0-4 major pivot trendline from the top made ~9 months ago. Price has zoomed the latest ML.

I'm looking to buy this stock on retracement for the long term potential.

I can't post the chart here right now, so go here: https://imgur.com/a/JUG8g

Sun, May 28, 2017 - 3:16am (Reply to #9984)
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Pete wrote: Solsson mentioned

Pete wrote:
Solsson mentioned K92 a short while ago.

Yepp, I've sold a boatload of stox in K92 this week, waiting for a summer low.

A broker at Sprott and argentus maximus ain't the biggest fans of k92 due to the high risk. I don't know they got veins that are very narrow, however the management team is first class. There is a sister company called Kenadyr Mining run by the same team.

It's in Swedish so you have to translate the page:

https://www.purchaser.se/?wysija-page=1&controller=email&action=view&ema...

Sun, May 28, 2017 - 3:58am
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Apple and NASDAQ topping out

Apple and NASDAQ topping out soon?

There is a harmonic count in Apple. We are in sub wave iii of v that will get us to the final fifth wave up 5 of 5. After the fifth wave we will get a major correction, for a year maybe, but according to the skilled Swedish EW we still got 15-16years left in this bull trend for the west. I am very much in doubt about that just looking at global and US debt right now.

maybe this is just the first wave up of 5 impulsive waves? So the Keynesians knows what they are doing ...

Sun, May 28, 2017 - 11:53am
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What about QE?Where is the

What about QE?

Where is the fresh money going? Is it going elsewhere?

Or have they turned off the tap(faucet)?

Take a look at the ex-tech vs tech chart HERE Copyright prevents me posting it but that link will do.

Now ... in your mind think about stock rotations during a bull. Then think of money streaming into the specialist story stocks as breadth thins out. Then consider for a moment what a crypto-FX is. Is it a specialist tech stock? Being as fair as I can on this, the answer would appear to be: partially. The other parts are bond derivative, anti currency currency, branded cash transaction payment tool, and gambling vehicle. In my opinion.

In which case the portion of value appropriate to the part of a particular digi-FX's value might be treated as a spec tech stock?

Back to the question at top then. What about QE? Where is the fresh money going? I think I might be smelling central banker macro policy changes in the air, but it's subtle.... and hard to say specifically what I think I feel about this. So far.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, May 29, 2017 - 1:49pm
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More about the Central Bank

More solid information on the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) landscape and progress on the part of the current owners of monetary systems:

Legal tender and central-bank issued digital currency

Dr. Corinne Zellweger-Gutknecht

It lists several initiatives and pilot projects:

Ecuador

–dineroelectrónico: 02/2015, up and running, small amounts, centralised network

Canada

–MintChip: cancelled in 04/2014, digital representation of the Royal Mint’s coins, on smart cards

–Central Bank of Canada: 06/2016, project Jasper, CAD-coins for interbank purposeshttp://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/fsr-june-2017-chapman.pdf

Singapore:

–03/2017, proof-of-concept trial, Singapore dollar on DLT, for interbank purposes

China

–12/2016, trial completed, DLT-currency for transactions and settlements of bank acceptance bills

–09/2016, considerations re issuance of digital legal tender by banks on behalf of PBoC

Bank of England

–2015, One Bank Research Agenda; pilot projects

–2016, Barrdear/Michael on macroeconomics of CBDC; fintech accelerator

Netherlands

–2015, DNBcoinprototype 1 and 2, completed, for internal test purposes (focused on the blockchain)

–2016, DNBcoinprototype 3, announced, for settlement in financial market infrastructures

Sweden

–11/2016, e-Krona

–03/2017, project plan; possible start of implementation is not expected before 2019

Presentation summary here: https://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/law/projects/lfm/blockchain/Zellweger%20%20C.pdf

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, May 29, 2017 - 7:25pm
Pete
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GDX

The weekly pattern in GDX is cause for concern. A shakeout is potentially developing above a major 3p line. A shakeout is when prices fail to reach the latest 2 (consecutive) mls. A break of the 3p line from here gives us a "3p short retrace" pattern that usually results in a sharp move that is a multiple of the last price movement from the 3p line. Prices should rise strongly from a 3p line of this magnitude--otherwise, the move is apt to reverse strongly lower.

Pivot d failed to reach the ml from pa (on both weekly and daily), and pe has failed to reach the ml from pb--so far.

Chart here.

Mon, May 29, 2017 - 8:46pm
Pete
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AAPL

Solsson, you made me look!

A superb example of what a correction in a strong, long-term bull market can look like. It took about a year! AAPL

As for a possible top, consider this. Also watch WL#1 (above the latest highs) to the last ML, where the long correction ended. That ML is now a good CL.

Tue, May 30, 2017 - 10:55am (Reply to #9990)
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Thank you Pete, interesting

Thank you Pete, interesting charts

A Fibonacci Singular Event is coming soon has it something to do with the major fractal in Gold? The Centralbankers has painted themselves into an ugly corner with no way out? The toolbox is empty ...

*BOOM* a new monetary system-concept is born? I don't know I am, as usual, just guessing.

Year 2021 Fibonacci Singularity Event

hmm, I've got a strong sense of deja vu, I think I've asked this question before.