The setup for the big trade

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Sat, May 6, 2017 - 4:24am brokerk22
Solsson
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brokerk22 wrote: AM's cycle

brokerk22 wrote:

AM's cycle is almost identical to none other than Marty Armstrong. Go to sleep folks gold and silver wont bottom until late 2018 early 2019. Check back in another 18 months or so.

Hell no, why?

There is alot of money to make in between the major swings. Am once told us that he is a rangetrader and I am trying to be the same. I will give you an example later today, rangetrading is much less stressful than daytrading and other versions of trade and hopefully much more profitable in the long run.

Sat, May 6, 2017 - 12:34pm
silverwood
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Ronnie Fattal's 5/6/17 gold and silver analysis

Bearish sentiment so thick you could spread it on toast. OK if bears win and silver plunges back to it's 2015 lows. How long will it stay there? What will it do to miners who will create future supply? Will the stackers come out in force and buy the dip or throw up in frustration? Are we going into digital/paper Nirvana? Time to go fishing...Aloha

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold and Silver as of 6th May 2017
Sat, May 6, 2017 - 1:30pm
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Am looking/hoping to add Monday-Wed

Sentiment is terrible, lots of capitulation, sellers exhaustion due to set in, and gold going into backwardation... plus we're near the bottom of the near term range. Very nice risk-reward setup, with tight stops. Mine (stop) is 19 on the gdx but hoping to build a position in the next 3 trading days at a discount. Then ride it for a swing trade. We will see...

Sun, May 7, 2017 - 4:29am
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Ancient argentus

Ancient argentus maximus knowledge:

I am looking for a low at or around end of June, a bounce up here and another correction later? Will we see gold at 1165-1170?

Gold has more room for bearishness looking at MACD.

Mon, May 8, 2017 - 7:09pm
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The extreme G-V levels are

The extreme G-V levels are winding down again.

And during the past few days we have seen selling off of the gold and silver prices as they retreat from the secondary range high retest to lower short term trading range boundaries.

And interesting posts here at Setup arrived just on time, as well as that we saw an epic podcast from our host, Turd, last Friday as the stress in the PM community rose to peak levels concurrent with the G-V peak .

The questions are : What levels have been established by the volume trading of the past two weeks? What levels have been demolished? What seniority or scale of swing/support and resistance have we seen being worked by the market players. Charts tomorrow on this, and hopefully the move away by prices from present levels will be a sustained swing for several days/per cent.

The political EU scene is of triumph of consolidating empire (and corporatism/globalism) over democracy (which is not to say that the democratic side don't have their own sponsors'globalist policies onboard too). Disappointment for US, Russia, and China as the EU rallies. They'd prefer weak single EU member countries to bully. For the near term, the EU political class are back again in the ascendent, which represents a reversal of the Brexit/Trump election trends. Apparachiks (and wives, secretaries, relatives, etc) gaining from well paid positions are sighing breaths of relief, and planning to skin their expense accounts all the harder and all the sooner because some day this could actually come to an end. Just not today, not this month.

Thanks Solsson for posting the summary above. It's good to have the record set straight and I appreciate that.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

And I would like to draw readers' attention to what happened in cryptocurrencies during the recent (extended) G-V period. You know what the G-V measures, and all that crypto-FX interest and price movement can therefore be characterized by you and I, using this knowledge, in a certain way. Enough said.

Remember NASDAQ in March 2000?

Here's a little reminder:

So .... March 2000 + (1/2 x the Central Bankers' cycle)

... 2000.25 + (37/2) plus or minus a little

... 2019.0

Which is interesting, seeing as today the NASDAQ chart looks like this:

Fascinating .....

Two candidates ..... shaping up almost a full cycle later. We are certainly well within the "possible period" already. Ideally it would wait for later in 2018. But ideal is not to be expected of course! I wonder how many more other "candidates" will enter the .... err ... competition during the coming months?

What form will this one choose to manifest in?

The seeds are sprouting all around us right now. Already. If only we look self-honestly to see them we will not be surprised.

Enough said for now.

Various G-V rises and falls due during the coming weeks and I'll not bore you with details for the rest of May since the last two weeks were much of it, but June contains a biggie. Take a look at those OI levels.

Has any reader here got up to date backwardation or leasing (actual not implied) prices and a willingness to contribute to Setup? If you do, please get in touch. Thanks.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, May 8, 2017 - 11:13pm
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It may go up. It may go down.

It may go up. It may go down. Hide behind the cloak of esoteric jibberish and contrived charts i will. Pay up suckas... uh err i mean subscribers.

Mon, May 8, 2017 - 11:13pm
Sirtitan45
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It may go up. It may go down.

It may go up. It may go down. Hide behind the cloak of esoteric jibberish and contrived charts i will. Pay up suckas... uh err i mean subscribers.

Tue, May 9, 2017 - 3:49am Sirtitan45
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@ Sirtitan45

I wonder how you can post lies like that immediately after Solsson posted a visual summarizing the calls I have made realtime during the past one and a half years, and what happened after I made them. Either you didn't bother to read his post or look at the visual or don't care but you're trolling in opposition to a successful track record. And in markets track record beats all.

You apparently didn't read ALL my words. Somehow you skipped over this:

argentus maximus wrote:
May 9, 2017 - 12:04am

" ... the move away by prices from present levels ..."

For your education, a breakout from a level is incontrovertible proof of a directional move. No matter if it is a manipulated market or random chaotic market, efficient market or whatever, it can't go up without breaking out first and it can't go down without breaking down first. Chart signals work. See? Astute people notice breakouts and use them. (Which is not to say they are good entry points. False break identification before the fact is one factor that sorts the best from the rest.)

Open your eyes to knowledge and learn investment techniques you have somehow not yet acquired instead of trolling during periods of high emotion.

Anyway trolls aims: try to discredit, distract or consume time of their intended victim, or lead him off message into stupid discussions. I've already wasted more time that is appropriate for your duplicated post.

Have you considered opening your own thread and posting your wisdom for us there so we can see what you're really made of as your track record comes into view over time?

Good day.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 9, 2017 - 4:02am
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Hi AM What do you think about

Hi AM

What do you think about this case?:

gold go up from here to end May, then make a low around mid June (may be a higher low), from there gold go up fast?

Please share your view on gold if you have free time. Thank you for all your works here!

Tue, May 9, 2017 - 5:12am
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Hi muatuyeta2That's pretty

Hi muatuyeta2

That's pretty close to what I think is most likely.

(I think) There are a few times when the fractal gold is bound within may break. If it doesn't break we go up this year net, make a plateau, and down towards end 2018.

There is a factor that is present that is growing but might not yet be significant. But I'm conscious of this. Gold has had weak year ends for a few years. Some time that pattern will break and put the late pattern recognition people on the wrong side. So, if (from subsequently looking back) that turned out to be this year, then a mid year low should not be missed as a later low, if it materialized, might disappoint those of us looking for good deep cutting entry for longs.

The BP 1950s analog has the (other roadmap) fractal leading to a 2018-9 low breaking about now, because if the energy bear of the '50s is precedent that suggests a possible permanent rise initiating from here and now. So that might be construed as my main "alt" scenario at the moment.

But it's not my main scenario, rather one to be triggered if the market begins to "walk that way", and a medium rise is possibel both scenarios, so the key seems to be choosing what level above today represents gold moving to the breakout into main trend, and if that level is not exceeded represents main scenario, we trade into a plateau which rests above the recent trading range, but would have a sharp "C" down at it's end to make a longer term low retest, and therefore set up a longer swing up after it's conclusion.

How to tell those levels? VAP. Extreme open interest, or open interest changes, behaviour upon reaching 1450-ish, QE depressing real (inflation adjusted) interest rates again even if nominal rates are higher that last few years (watch TIPS), and I expect advanced signs of distribution in global stocks. All these are already present, but for major turns they would most likely become more extreme and more advanced.

Then there's the 8 year cycle in gold. It is not an 8.6 Armstrong length. Not a Shemita seven either. It varies between seven to nine and a half which introduces problems that need to be sorted another way. but whatever length it is it tends to have four lows during the period from half way down to half way up. That descending wedge in gold between 2014 and 2015 is tough to evaluate in this regard, but some time it may become clearer.

Funny enough, silver might just hold a clue there. There are some long term cycles in silver whereas gold is more chaotic merely doffing it's hat to the cycles while in passing. I think I put an article in the AM blog at TFMR at the time I reworked them. About two years ago. I also did a couple of RnP videos after that with more information. If you have the RnP archive there's a monster silver fractal. This is probably a good time to rework and update those. Thanks for provoking me to think of that.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 9, 2017 - 5:32am
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I think I posted this here Sept 2016

British Petroleum : gold analog updated:

What it might look like if the people in charge run inflation starting 2017 and the markets see what's going on. It has served us well since I posted it here, but it's my secondary scenario at the moment. Note the large gap and pullback to what equates to the 1450 level in gold. That possibility has got to be respected and is why I only acquire but have not relinquished longs thus far.

You can't see it in that analog, but there was a big selloff in BP in 1956. That brought it crashing from overbought back to the rising trendline at base of the triangle upper right of the analog chart. Well, if it happens that gold is prevented from breaking out during the coming 14 months I would expect a similarly sudden crash-like downswing in gold. But if it hasn't broken out by then, that would be the final low of the bear that I talk about and hope to see. If it has broken out by then, then gold would have the breakout levels, 1450, 1950 as places to catch it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 10, 2017 - 7:59am
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Like clockwork

And like clockwork, in his own veiled way, Argentus marks buying points to the day. Even before events take place. Amazing.

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 1:35pm
silverwood
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A look at silver in different time frames

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 2:15pm argentus maximus
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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

Thanks Solsson for posting the summary above. It's good to have the record set straight and I appreciate that.

You are welcome, however I think the last part of my chart is questionable. Looking at summer solstice from last year we could turn around here, I think Pining is spot on. How about to analyze a gold miners wave count to fine tune a buying opportunity?

I am missing two waves, one up and one last down to finish the wave pattern ... the up today and down tomorrow, meh they are to small...

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 2:50pm
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Solsson- not so fast my friend!

I'm pleased you feel my recent analysis might be worthwhile- very much appreciated! But as Argentus continually reminds us, many possibilities must be considered and planned for, and there is ALOT to like about a June /summer solstice low! I am keeping that very much in mind as we move forward, and will adjust accordingly as the charts reveal themselves. I do think we have a great risk vs reward setup here, and I've built 75% of my position (I caught some nice prices near daily lows for buys Thurs, mon, Tues,and today to average in).

I was pleased to see the spot price of metals break down through trendlines, they so love to do, to wrong-foot people and harvest suffering and capitulating longs at the end of a downturn. Meanwhile the more stable (chart-wise, to me) GDX has a very clear stop to honor- the Dec low around 19, bottom of the 12 month trading range. Really, this is just a pretty entry for a standard range- trade.

However, the Solstice is very much in-play: we could get a fake out rise here and fall back, basically "double bottom" mid-June before taking off. We could just keep going down, break 19, and make a deeper low at that time... also very possible. So let's stay nimble and keep these "alternate scenarios" in mind, my friend- I am very glad you posted the chart above!

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 3:06pm
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Solsson wrote: ...  Looking

Solsson wrote:
... Looking at summer solstice from last year we could turn around here, I think Pining is spot on. How about to analyze a gold miners wave count to fine tune a buying opportunity?

I am missing two waves, one up and one last down to finish the wave pattern ... the up today and down tomorrow, meh they are to small...

We seem to require a rally and a fall to complete a five. Which puts us at end of three or start of four in the downswing. Possibly.

BUT under EW rules the five down itself has ability to "choose to " become a one. That possibility requires due respect. And stops. It's the next support that matters for that. Doubling of the range ( or recent trading range x 1.236, x 1.382, x 1.5, x 1.618) does not have to happen, but that potential must be allowed for.

Not saying I expect that. If it were to come to pass, It would probably mean B down has not completed and is becoming more complex. with an additional a-b-d possibly taking the form of an irregular flat or a zig-zag.

If you go to look at the 1998 bear ending you can see a sharp move to bottom of range taking the form of a five, then a break, and a larger five to end both the 2-3 year bear and the 21 year bear. Can it take the same form again? Probably not, but maybe.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 10, 2017 - 3:28pm
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One way to count 1999 bear termination

I'd usually use fractals and cycles, but this struck me at the time:

Check out the price scale. this is the weekly. On the daily those were brutal swings! And yes, the c of 2 looks horrible. Use a rising expanding a-b-c-d-e for 2 up of 5 down if you prefer.

And ... would the range boundary has suckered in a lot of early bulls? Sure it did! The daily shows that the breakdown was a gap to lock them in.

But you already know I don't think we are at that stage. We have a long term trendline of very large buyers and also esoteric trendlines providing strong support that would have to be overcome first. I just won't write off the ability of the global gov teams in charge to roger(*) the world up even more stunningly than they've already achieved.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 10, 2017 - 3:58pm erewenguy
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erewenguy wrote: And like

erewenguy wrote:

And like clockwork, in his own veiled way, Argentus marks buying points to the day. Even before events take place. Amazing.

Yes, May the 10th

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 4:34pm
Solsson
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Ok, AM and Pining why not

Ok, AM and Pining why not keeping it simple? A good old head&shoulders pattern, we got the left shoulder, the head and now we are building the right shoulder for a couple of weeks. Then a correction down to touch the supportline in the triangle one last time before take off that's my favorite scenario.

Many is trying to outsmart the market by making it more complex than it really is ... and what if the stockmarket runs into a wall soon, isn't that a necessary thing for gold and miners to catch a bid? Yes that would be nice, important parts of the markets puzzle falling into place at the same time.

About trying to outsmart the market, I am just looking at myself, I've been all over the place lately, but I am getting better and better to control my greed.

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 5:47pm
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It's very difficult to do

It's very difficult to do nothing and wait. Doubt rages inside and tries to make us do something, anything, quickly.

Getting some idea of market structure is a great help, though it will never ever be clear. I assume everybody has read Edwards & Magee or Murphy by now, and hopefully Prechter & Frost. That won't render what we try to do easy, but it can help substantially in making it into a possible goal.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets