I typed this post at first for the DOTS forum, but since the Setup forum focuses not only upon the market, but also upon the inner mind of the trader and those who immerse themselves in it, I decided to post it here too.
This Youtube channel looks at body language of some of the personalities discussed here from time to time.
She does a good job of it in my opinion. (Which is a confession that her conclusions match up with many of my own before I watched her videos. And the differences were interesting enough to make me think. )
So have a browse of your favourite alt YT big name and see if she liked or dislikes their body language as a veracity test of what they were saying.
Here is the channel: Bombard's Body Language
and some highlights:
Body Language: Graham and McCain Relationship
Body Language: Megyn Kelly
Body Language: Pope Francis
Body Language: Angela Merkel
Body Language: Kellyanne Conway/The View
Body Language: John Podesta
Have fun. There's lots more there. I'll be interested to read your take on this.
Now that's looking at other people, celebrities, with an expert eye. Can I or you apply this to myself/yourself to see when we are being honest with ourselves? That should help with investing and choosing the good from the bad trades. (I'd be more interested to hear your take on that!)
Maybe it will help with self insight, if not it's still entertaining to see what she sees in the micro movements of the big names while they speak.
My plus one? When speakers are accessing memory, they may be remembering true events, but a really cold fish might instead be remembering a previously carefully constructed script so as to not deviate from it. Professional training about bearing and body language needs to be adjusted for too, as some professions have a great deal of training on that.
But I'm not an expert in these things. Not as good as I aspire to be anyway.
By the way, the Pope video reminded me of the Michael Lewis story in Liars Poker about the investment banker's wife at the meeting with the Queen mother.
Ronnie keeps the bullish faith...Amen
hi argentus, reading your post regarding global warming made me think of this video...one of the most helpful i've found in trying to understand what is happening to our earth and our climate...obviously, there has been some manipulating of data. the frustrating thing, for me, is that it is impossible to talk to anyone about this that has their mind made up...no room for discussion!
Top 6 Climate Change Problems
Ben Davidson did a really good summary in that video.
...Now, for the last bit of observations. I also mentioned that Bitcoin is distinct from Gold in terms of its financial properties. And guess what, I did not provide any evidence. Well, here it is. Bitcoin returns and Gold returns are not correlated, or in other words, they neither co-move with each other nor countermove against each other. Here's a chart to prove this:
Average 30-days running correlation for Bitcoin and gold in terms of daily log-log returns is 0.03025 historically, which is statistically indifferent from zero. Across the three periods of Bitcoin volatility structure (defined above), average correlation between Bitcoin and gold log-log returns was 0.0147, 0.0182 and 0.0529 respectively. All of these are statistically indifferent from zero. In history of the Bitcoin, there were only 7 occasions on which daily returns were correlated positively with gold price with correlation in excess of 0.5. and 5 with negative correlation in excess of -0.5 in absolute value None with correlation in excess of 0.65 in absolute value for either positive or negative correlations.
Bitcoin comparatives to gold hold about as much water as a colander hit by a shrapnel shot.....
Excerpt from Constantin Gurdgiev's Economics Blog
I have gradually come to a tentative view that BTC is closer to a tech stock than the assets it is popularly supposed to represent. Sometime I'll have a go at testing that little thought with some research, and seeing if it can grow up into a hypothesis.
argentus maximus wrote: I have gradually come to a tentative view that BTC is closer to a tech stock than the assets it is popularly supposed to represent. Sometime I'll have a go at testing that little thought with some research, and seeing if it can grow up into a hypothesis.
I think that's the right way to look at BTC. It's not just a "currency" but an investment in the future of crypto-currencies and block-chain technology. I think that's the narrative that people should focus on rather than spending time comparing it to gold. They're not comparable IMHO.
csquared13 wrote: argentus maximus wrote: I have gradually come to a tentative view that BTC is closer to a tech stock than the assets it is popularly supposed to represent. Sometime I'll have a go at testing that little thought with some research, and seeing if it can grow up into a hypothesis. I think that's the right way to look at BTC. It's not just a "currency" but an investment in the future of crypto-currencies and block-chain technology. I think that's the narrative that people should focus on rather than spending time comparing it to gold. They're not comparable IMHO.
Agreed, in the event of a downfall in socioeconomic complexity of a society, BTC won't do much for you. As such it is IMHO a bet on an increase of socioeconomic complexity and a (radically?) different social structure. See the Sovereign Individual or this tweetstorm for more context. Whether this would be good or bad, too early to say if you ask me. I see plenty of downsides (mostly privacy). The alternatives of nationalism and financialised globalism have their downsides as well though.
This man predicted the terrorist attack in Stockholm, one month in advance. Now is remark about Sweden is not so strange anymore.
and he represents the fruit orange with the esoteric meaning of danger, a warning. In ancient societies the hunters was heading home when the sun turned into orange to avoid getting caught by darkness.
CME Group plans to close CME Europe, CME Clearing Europe by year-end
" ... our customers have shown that they prefer to access our global products, deep liquidity and greater capital efficiencies through our U.S. infrastructure," said William Knottenbelt, CME Group Senior Managing Director, International. ... "
Yeah. Right. I'm sure client demand is the cause and not Eu-US, ECB-Fed-Bundesbank geopolitics ..... :-)
So we get a big G-V, US firing cruise missiles into an energy resource containing former Soviet Bloc ally country adjoining Israel, Scandinavian crowd-truck-crashing terrorists, Chinese army moves hundreds of thousands to North Korean border, airline commits public image suicide by security staff-on-passenger wrestling, LBMA gold fix departs substantially from gold spot in an unexplained fashion probably off-the-record LBMA & OTC contract settlement squeezes, and gold, already proximate to long term upper channel boundary, takes out an interim high to the upside.
As usual, events of substance cluster, as forecasted and as always will. G-V tells me we ain't seen nothing yet.
And then there was this item drawn to my attention by a watchful Setup & RnP reader:
>>>The Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) has announced the historic launch of DGCX Shanghai Gold Futures (DSGC), following the signing of a landmark deal with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) last year. The yuan-denominated contract, DSGC, marks the first-ever usage of the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price in international markets. The launch of the DSGC was officially announced at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference (DPMC) taking place on Sunday.<<<
As reported here - credit peaking in the stock markets, public coming in. I am paying attention to the Japanese markets at the moment. After that I need to brush up on my Shakespeare SDR.
So big rocks are beginning to roll. Future rallies in stocks require watching carefully. Support and resistance status of bonds are vital.
Greg Mannarino, his Greg Hunter interview last week, could be worth catching up on. If you missed it here's a link:
I'm a little puzzled why the miners are not buying into this gold rally. We had strong resistance above $1262. That's been shattered. Gold is the highest since last November. Into the 1280s now. Yet the miners barely move.
I'm wondering if it's gonna take 1300+ before folks get interested again.
I'm inclined to give them a month to a month and a half and then see what they have done before making my mind up. And in 7-8 months look for pullback/retests to set longer term direction again.
Basis Newmont Mining, I see it trading in the region of the April 2013 selloff in Comex Gold. That's in the 36 region. There is a place around 30 where some trading might have to take place before the following big thing gets going. So maybe a 15 to 20% correction when the current triangular trading range swings get tired would get it there. Would mid year be too soon to expect that? It could take another 6 months, possibly. There's a lot of speculation in this reply!
The trendline with the big T, finally to be broken? It's 4,5years old now:
This is the weekly, look at the volume. Do we have another month of upmove in miners or are we topping out here?
Many questions not a lot of answers, let the market decide.
#NC Fred, maybe the technical traders is watching the trendline and are awaiting a break before they buy miners, just a guess ...
Odds are we're topping out here, but there is no requirement to be guessing about that.
Set the stops off prices at G-V peaks, price will move and remain either over or under these levels.
There is a track record of several market behaviours, none with a perfect record, which informs about the probabilities upon pullbacks to descending resistance. Here is one: late phase gold bear trend retests that fail, fail suddenly and often after a false breakout signal becomes aborted. That is to say they breakout temporily before fading fast.
In which case I am prepared to deal with an eg 1-3 period breakout which then fails to carry through. If that happens I would not expect a second chance pullback. The key takeaway is to not get locked in by a sharp move counter to one's position at these stages.
Another takeaway: buying breakouts at top of range is chancy, but the buying should be done at range lows upon a failed breakdown, and that is safer. It makes allowance for entry on not so rare occasions when price runs from bottom of range, through breakout, to top of range in as few as one price bar, or during closed hours.
There are other conclusions too (also not perfect) for those who do the research or pay to have it done for them by reliable traders. That is something I do for others. A few selected market books contain this kind of practical experience - I've recommended some here. Actually I promised to sometime do a follow up to that with a more advanced reading list. I'll bring that project forwards and make it into a weekend AM blog article.
Here is a long term target for the PALL ETFS Physical Palladium shares:
I wonder if I have the swing directions right? Too soon to try estimating swing size, but it's got 9 to 14 months to run and do wave, symmetry, volume, and ratios.
Let's wait and see if a big trade presents itself at the appointed time.
We are nearing a probable turning point low, perhaps a wave 4 or A of 4 per Daneric and T.Joe.
A reaction line was drawn using the 3-4 center line because pivot 4 was made very close to 3 a-b ml. Pivot 2 is the action point.
Note the two daily tops on 2 uh 3-4. Intraday, this is a double H bounce pattern, with potential to reach 2 ml 3-4. (There was a good sell point at the h on Wednesday.)
The rl and ml cross next trading session (Monday) near 2303-2304. Watch for a reversal at/near there.
I would absolutely love this scenario to play out the coming months:
and it's in line with my own work, looking at a fractal in a gold index, predicting a high in a month. However I do not trust it one bit bcos this is the first time I am looking at this kind of analysis, I have no experience in this field.
Interesting take from two "old bond trading colleagues" on a new IMF paper that sees potential problems ahead:
Mohamed El-Erian: Reconciling the IMF's 3 Growth Messages
Bill Gross: Brainteasers
IMF : World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?
Summary: Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges........ More HERE
Well, it appears that we have arrived at a most unusual time. Two weeks of continuous peak Geopolitical Effect begin today, the first week of which will also have elevated Violence Effect.
G-V outlook is extreme from 21st April through to 8th May, (but not at rare levels like is what sets the tone for a decade).
And already we can see Operation Gladio style vote canvassing under way in France. Reports of thirty thousand facepuke accounts affiliated with LePen's support base deleted, reports of 500,000 extra French voting cards sent out, terrorist attacks in Paris 3 days prior to the election round one causing early cessation of candidate canvassing. There is of course more since this is a program not isolated incidents and not everything made the news big or was intended to do so. The events are separate but not disparate, being diffused action for a cause. Will the NATO secret files have "For US eyes only" written on them this time, as the files in NATO connected with Italian train station bombings during the 1980s did? I doubt it.
Dogs of war. But whose dogs? There are several dog owners around. Who? Well, who was on the list of countries that promised an investigation into Gladio but somehow never got round to it?
"... the parliament of the European Union (EU) drafted a resolution sharply criticizing the fact. Yet only Italy, Belgium and Switzerland carried out parliamentary investigations, while the administration of President George H. W. Bush refused to comment..."
" ... In 1991, a report by Swiss magistrate Pierre Cornu was released by the Swiss defence ministry. It found that P-26 (Projekt-26)was without "political or legal legitimacy", and described the group's collaboration with British secret services as "intense". "Unknown to the Swiss government, British officials signed agreements with P-26 to provide training in combat, communications, and sabotage. The latest agreement was signed in 1987... P-26 cadres participated regularly in training exercises in Britain... British advisers – possibly from the SAS – visited secret training establishments in Switzerland." ...
...In 1990, Colonel Herbert Alboth, a former commander of P-26, declared in a confidential letter to the Defence Department that he was willing to reveal "the whole truth". He was later found in his house, stabbed with his own bayonet. ... "
Let's see: Europe/Eu members back then + UK + USA - Italy, Belgium and Switzerland.
That would be USA, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
Ah, those dog owners.
So, this latest Paris attack ... if you get bitten by a dog, the dog needs to be put down or muzzled, but the owner who trained and let that dog out ... that party or group, and those behind it or them, who let the dogs out requires to be identified and included with the dogs when creating a solution. These dogs canvass for electoral votes with violence, a common kind of modern dog, and a species not seen parading at Crufts.
These two weeks gold will have the firepower to decide serious trading range contests and it's possible it could set some of price range parameters for the rest of 2017, and likely until Q3.
What are the odds? Silver COT showing a record short position. $18.63 is a number to watch for in silver. What are the odds we are going down further and moving sideways at best the rest of spring and into late summer? Ronnie says no fairytales for you! But just remember this...
Fairy tales can come true
It can happen to you if you're young at heart
For it's hard, you will find
To be narrow of mind if you're young at heart
You can go to extremes with impossible schemes
You can laugh when your dreams fall apart at the seams
And life gets more exciting with each passing day
And love is either in your heart or on it's way
Don't you know that it's worth
Every treasure on earth to be young at heart
For as rich as you are
It's much better by far to be young at heart
And if you should survive to a hundred and five
Look at all you'll derive out of bein' alive
And here is the best part, you have a head start
If you are among the very young at heart
I am bearish, both metals and stockmarkets:
US money supply is falling off a cliff:
The deciding factor for the business cycle: Lower money supply growth means fewer transactions and the end result is lower GDP. If this pattern continues USA will soon fall into a recession.