This is an excellent presentations by Ronnie showing where we stand in the gold and silver price arena. Ronnie gives a very clear way of understanding the probabilities of where prices are headed. IMO, I believe the bulls are in store for an epic battle. This is the "price maginot line" where the bulls and bears will fight it out.
Silverwood: thanks for Ronnie's video. Friday's silver action was important. I can't believe it was all GDP news moving silver, something else seems to be happening...creates questions.
Monday open, Wed FOMC, Fri BLSBS all important...and China is closed...lots of data input next week.
Pining: I'm with you, currently in JDST. Good RSI data study, thank you for posting it.
I'm thinking Friday was a simple gold relief rally and am still looking for a test of 1160, but???
I'm glad to see Ronnie putting emphasis on 1160. Crash 1160 and we test recent lows, hold and it's off to the races. My JDST play was to 1160 or close to it, sell then watch...wanting to switch to JNUG after Friday's assumed lows on BLSBS and an important hold of 1160.
Take a look at netdania weekly gold chart 1088.72 ending red candle and netdania daily gold chart blue candle ending at 1088.72....the pattern has been pretty close so far, this year to last in both events and charting. I think that's where we are IF we are to repeat last year. The difference being NIRP announced by BOJ last year this time as the fuel for the following blue candle run and only a continuance announcement of BOJ bond buying this Thursday. Also the confluence of FOMC/BLSBS/China closed next week should give us OML which IMO changes the pattern somewhat, but then it's off to the races. It makes more sense in my head vs typing it out, but I've been watching this for a bit waiting on this coming week. I firmly believe this week sets up Feb-April '17, and I'm in the bull camp after OML.
Hi there. As you can see, I like to consider alternate possibilities--or not get surprised. I always respect the price action at/near R1 on the 60m level, especially when additional evidence is present (the 38% thing). But it doesn't mean it won't go lower than R1. The last 60m ml is down, too, which is not bullish at all. But perhaps it is a good place to take some profits and get back in short higher if you want to stay short (i.e. scalp). My guess is the picture will evolve to look more like what I was suggesting here on the long term chart. But I've been surprised before when prices just don't retrace much. I agree with your momentum concept. This is probably only a short-term counter move. There would have to be something out of the ordinary (lately) to overcome the implication of major medians all going down, seems to me. So, there are different degrees of trend and evidence, as you know. Price probably needs to find a much stronger support angle (like an MLH) than a 60m R1 line. After all, R1 lines get broken all the time
I awoke to find gold in the position below. Price had put in a reversal bar pattern (lower close) on the r1 line of the few-day downtrend, on slightly higher volume (the circled bars). Earlier it had reached the 38%R level. The chart now shows 2 consecutive upside zooms of the min-3 60m ml, which more strongly supports the possibility of a good move up: The first is the "4 AWI" pivot and the second is p6. AWI is short for advanced warning indicator (from the zoom rule). The data is delayed 10m.
As I was preparing the chart, which takes a few minutes, gold burst higher above the r1 line and reversal bars. So it appears to be in a third wave higher. Note that on its way down to the lower r1 line (upsloping, from prior post) we could count a nice 5 pivots, but here, on its way up to the latest possible r1 line, we have only 2. Having 5 or more to the r1 line increases the odds of a turn there (the move is more likely exhausted).
The energy of a third wave (i.e. after a p2 pullback) is often necessary to break the r1 line. r2 (not drawn) is now a possible target area where there might be a turn. Assuming this is just a small rally on the daily chart, it might come back to the larger upsloping 0-4 line center line that it crossed on its way down to the r1 line support angle. That would be a place to look to go short if other considerations support. But, having found support at the r1 from below, it might be going back to 1220. I can't predict what it will do. I'm just presenting how the Action-Reaction lens creates a quasi-logical way of looking at the apparent randomness.
On the 60m chart, gold declined from 1220.1 to a 162% external retracement of its last swing up from 1195.4. This was a factor I didn't see because the cmegroup.com software doesn't have Fib retracements/extensions. When this measurement is confluent with a 38% retracement of a larger time frame, it's very powerful to reverse the trend. Throw in a recovery of the R1 line, and you have a stronger case for a move up and a reason to cover short positions. How high I don't know, but I would expect to the 4AWI level at least, and maybe the 1220.1 high.
I remember reading last week just before the jump that Volkswagen are embedding silver in their windshields as a defroster. This will replace copper and is set to be installed on even lower end models like Golf.
60m gold has rallied in 5 m3 60m pivots and satisfied the "zoom rule", which was to reach the value of the prior p4 of 1205 at a minimum. P3 reached the ml from p0; but then p4 failed the ml from p1, and p5 failed the ml from p2. This is a shakeout, and a warning that the trend could sharply reverse lower from here; this could be the start of a third wave down. A reliable trend change signal in this pivot pattern is the hourly close under the sh drawn. In the current context it would also serve as an exit long signal, and a short signal if the risk is acceptable. The upper parallel of the initial channel, sloping down on the daily chart, was pretty close to the high made so far this evening.
Gold started lower on the sh break (after p5) but not for long. So the shakeout concept failed. Price found support at the latest ml from 3, conjunct wl#1 from below. After taking out p5, it retraced back to a tick above, and popped strongly higher. The pivot pattern of p3 thru p6 reminds me of the running correction pattern in EWave (for a wave 2 in a 3rd wave up). At this point it looks like the turn at the larger R1 (and 38%R) with implied return to pZ is the correct interpretation of the price action. A turn at pZ or higher that also reaches the initial ml from p0 would be something to look for, as that ml has already been touched once (at 3). Maybe this happens at the 2p tops line, where the old CL crosses? That's in about 10 bars.
I threw in the classic H&S projection line, and it's in the neighborhood.
Could this price action be the start of something much larger to the upside? It could be.
Or is it just a B or X wave, with lots more downside to come? Whichever it turns out to be, a return to PZ appears most probable.
Turning at a major line intersection so far today...
I'm already beginning to look past the month of January to February 2017, and 5th-6th, 8th and 12th look promising for good trading opportunity
Is that long or short?
In that post I also said :
G-V Very high V condition in place from now until end of January, particularly now until about 25th.
Left wing riots in Berkeley University on 1st Feb at a right-side speaking function, fire, balaclavas and pepper sprays used by thug-like "protestors" against attendees from the other side.
There's two weeks of this, with the G, the geopolitical-power-contest, element level climbing up to meet up and overtake the V which now reduces a little off recent high.
Peaks are hard to pinpoint, it's all high through 18th Feb. But as I suggested 5-6, 8-10-11, 17, and I'll do the rest of Feb later.
So off the streets and into the boardroom and operations rooms the violence goes. it will spill back out on the highlighted times but go back behind the facade in between.
And this early Feb event anger-fear-reprisal will all return the first week of March.
This might be a time to return to the memory of events on university campuses (campi?) during 1968 (Orangeburg) which is about now, and in the coming months we will see returns of psychology like was present before and after the MLK and RK deaths. The media will play a big part as they did in this event.
Can you feel the mindset returning? Do you think the left wing enforcer surrogate gangs will be let continue with this? When force chooses to oppose force ....
And the return of Ayatolla Khomenei from the US (ever wonder about that given the consequences?) to Iran took place thirty eight years ago yesterday which is also relevant to what is happening today and during the coming couple of months.
I think gold might have a bid under it (hard to sell through support) with all the G-V event psychology, which is always ticking along with irregular peaks, but that's not good enough to trade with. Stocks on the other hand, I have stops very close under those now, but haven't been chased out of them just yet.
argentus maximus wrote: ... And the return of Ayatolla Khomenei from the US (ever wonder about that given the consequences?) to Iran took place thirty eight years ago yesterday which is also relevant to what is happening today and during the coming couple of months. ...
Cheeses Crust All Muddy,
don't know where u pick up your propaganda from,
but the Ayatoldya returned to Iran from PARIS FRANCE,
and prior to those couple of months he spent there
he was living in exile in IRAQ
for over a decade.
Ever "wonder about that given the (Facts) "
Spartacus Rex wrote: Cheeses Crust All Muddy, don't know where u pick up your propaganda from, but the Ayatoldya returned to Iran from PARIS FRANCE, and prior to those couple of months he spent there he was living in exile in IRAQ for over a decade. Ever "wonder about that given the (Facts) " Cheers
You are absolutely correct, according to the historical records in the media. He flew back from Paris, France.
However, the US was involved in every detail of Mohammed Reza, Shah's, rule before and during Khomeini's exile. And their Shah implemented US policies during his reign. I figure that US were deeply involved in every detail at the time that their asset the Shah was losing ground to the new strongman.
My mental process slipped into the written word and I made an incorrect statement, according to the historical record. I guess I was wrong to write it the way I did. Khomeini clearly had nothing in common with the US or anybody working for the US. He called the US the great Satan (which went down well with his supporters and gained more local support) so therefore obviously was a US enemy.
Curiously, there are indications that the US supplied arms to Iran during the Iran-Iraq war which began one year after Khomeini's return to Iran. Which might is officially construed as keeping a balance between dual foes and oil suppliers (Iran and Iraq) , but also might be construed by a few people as supporting Khomeini's regime after he took Iran.
Khomeini was champion of Islamic Revival and the US which appeared to oppose all he did back then.
Curiously the US has more recently been supporting Muslim Brotherhood (support of MBrotherhood usurpation of a revolution in Egypt and supported installation of MB Morsi as Egyptian ruler)) and de facto support of Islamic "moderate" fighters, arming, dropping bombs on forces fighting ISIS at crucial moments and other similar accidents.
The US and Islamism are not at odds when it comes to opposition to eg the far reaches of Russia and China's territories. The US would not have an interest in supporting an Islamic thorn in Russia or China's backside at all, not Brzezinski nor any of the neocon policymakers.
And I'm sure the US couldn't figure all that out in 1979. I mean Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard was not published until 1997.
Until you notice that Brzezinski was the United States National Security Advisor during 1977–81 under the administration of President Carter. Khomeini returned to Iran 1979.
Or notice that with Vietnam over there might be nobody to buy stuff like US, British, French made armaments in large quantities for a while.
So that's US, or better said Anglo-French-US, grand strategic interests and corporate military industrial complex interests aligned on and nothing in the historical record connecting them to Khomeini.
As I said my mental analysis slipped into my written words and I am not supported by the public historical record. So thanks for putting me straight on that. I was wrong to say that, he went from France, and my apologies for making you go go "cheeses crust all muddy" on such a mistake!
If/when prices decline below the sliding parallel to the ML drawn from the low at 2175, the downside risk significantly increases (especially on a close).
What does it mean?
Can't get free to post for a couple of hours. Up to my eyes in figuring out new software features!
G-V. Stops raised last G-V to next appropriate level, elevated emotions on US streets and Ukraine raised activity
next G-V violent in character - very much so
Mid Feb to bring a hard attack military, civil, probably precious metals too
Therefore gold may put in a peak/retest peak next week which has ability to "harden relatively quickly" and resist penetration from price if it gets pushed below, or less likely from above if acting as support due to price getting over levels prevailing at peak V.
And that goes for bonds.
Stocks probably entering or just entered daily 4 down of weekly 3 up of monthly 5 of run up from 2009 low. Wave fours can have a vertical beginning if three is sharp. Stocks could go corrective-impulsive after, ie enter a wedge formation.
I am doing constant risk-potential reward evaluations on stock holdings.
Silver may have flipped from new harmonic setup back to pre mid 2016 cyclical setup, no way to be sure, just potential is clearly elevated right now. QE alterations by central bankers currently in progress!
US centric readers - 2017 is an election year. Forget Trump psychaledic mind entrancement news flow. Most is not events that matter, just words to distract. Iran Pshaw! Immigration ... .been going on since forever! Been there done that thirty plus years ago. (How many exactly?) Crowd psychology ... I'll do an audio post.
Sorry no pics available this week! But a new software here requires to be "trained" and this is taking up all my time last few days. Cheers! AM
I love Grant William's presentations and this one is well worth the time to listen to. This presentation from Mines & Money in London in December 2016. A follow-up to Nobody Cares which focuses on gold's performance in 2016, the reaction to Donald Trump's election and joins a series of dots that may lead to the end of the petrodollar system and a new place for gold in the global monetary system.
In keeping with my iconic symbol and maybe some of you are too young to know who the Lone Ranger was but I believe it is time to quote him after viewing Ronnie's analysis for this week..."HI HO SILVER AWAY!"