Sorry for not contributing ... I am stressed out and working long hours at the moment Tx for the latest RNP's Am, great stuff.
For now I am looking for a price when wave 2/b will end, 1165 to close the breakout gap? Sold 10% of my K92 after the breakout in order to make another JNUG bet in Feb, so things are looking really good trading wise, work wise not so much.
Tx Pete for the charts!
What in the world is going on with Palladium? Up for most of the past year and then down almost 10% in 24 hours.
I goofed on my calculations for the reaction line for the ES weekly. The R1 value this week is 2340.80, not what was posted at #9738. The correct number is not so confluent with 2353. Interestingly, Trader Joe mentioned 2330-2340, instead of 2353, as a top number (where 5 = 1), and I don't know why. Remember, it's the closes that really matter with reaction lines. They point out areas of probable support/resistance, not necessarily exact values, though sometimes they will do that too, especially with other, supporting lines coming into the same time/price (including Fibonacci values, in my opinion).
As usual, great call on the turn. I also went that route way back on Jan 16th when I saw the gold Daily RSI creep above 70, and saw that 16 of 18 trading days in a row had been in the green (suggesting buyers should be getting scarce) and knew we had op-ex and the Chinese holiday looming. I was a bit early, but have hung in there and added to my short (DUST) at 1215.
Problem is, we (your JDST, my DUST) have not been rewarded as much as we should have, price wise... VIKING06 posted this interesting chart on Main and it is worth reposting here- the shares are still well above where they should be relative to price of gold, silver, and USDX moves.
I think this suggests that either we get something of a correction to realign the price of metals with the price of the shares (during the Chinese trading holiday starting tomorrow?), or they are just being accumulated for longer-term, and aren't as price sensitive as usual (which might be a good sign for longs, going forward). We will see. Either way, will let this run into (late?) next week, then look to exit.
Green is SDR, blue USD, purple GBP, red EUR, and orange AUD.
Different pivots are visible to a non US centric analyst.
So does breadth mean much in FX, and by how long might such a leading indicator lead?
Yes, I now do agree. Was trying to read too much into the readings and the rule would not apply. Tks for your feedback.
...and I don't know if he was talking futures or cash, but he mentioned 2340-2350 for the sp500 (not 2330-40 I had said above).
Friday AM and gold is showing some strength. The CL looks good. If there is an up daily close, this could have legs to an equal or higher high (above b). Holding at 38.2%R for a p2 is indicative of a potentially explosive market.
The "lid" on the upward movement may come from the m3 60m 0-4 line, just reached. An hourly close above it would be bullish, and a close above its corresponding r1 line (not drawn) would likely take us back to the top, given the larger context in the post above.
Your post made me think of something and wonder if there was a pattern, so I checked it out and thought I would comment- just food for thought. In the arena of the "trend is your friend", I was interested in how downside momentum like we have seen in gold has played out over the recent past. We went above 70 RSI on the daily, and on this drop we've now we've come back down to neutral, just below 50.
In the past four years, daily RSI has gone from above 70 to break the 50 line 9 times (like we've just seen). Of those 9, 7 times price kept falling to an RSI of 35 or lower, 1 time it tracked sideways, and only once did it reverse and start a move higher. Not definitive, obviously, but a move up from here would look to be much lower odds (11% of the time we've seen this setup) vs. a continued move lower (77% of the time we've seen this setup), at least in the four years 2013-2016.
I'll probably get burned, but I am hanging with my shorts a little while longer, see what next week brings.
This is an excellent presentations by Ronnie showing where we stand in the gold and silver price arena. Ronnie gives a very clear way of understanding the probabilities of where prices are headed. IMO, I believe the bulls are in store for an epic battle. This is the "price maginot line" where the bulls and bears will fight it out.
Silverwood: thanks for Ronnie's video. Friday's silver action was important. I can't believe it was all GDP news moving silver, something else seems to be happening...creates questions.
Monday open, Wed FOMC, Fri BLSBS all important...and China is closed...lots of data input next week.
Pining: I'm with you, currently in JDST. Good RSI data study, thank you for posting it.
I'm thinking Friday was a simple gold relief rally and am still looking for a test of 1160, but???
I'm glad to see Ronnie putting emphasis on 1160. Crash 1160 and we test recent lows, hold and it's off to the races. My JDST play was to 1160 or close to it, sell then watch...wanting to switch to JNUG after Friday's assumed lows on BLSBS and an important hold of 1160.
Take a look at netdania weekly gold chart 1088.72 ending red candle and netdania daily gold chart blue candle ending at 1088.72....the pattern has been pretty close so far, this year to last in both events and charting. I think that's where we are IF we are to repeat last year. The difference being NIRP announced by BOJ last year this time as the fuel for the following blue candle run and only a continuance announcement of BOJ bond buying this Thursday. Also the confluence of FOMC/BLSBS/China closed next week should give us OML which IMO changes the pattern somewhat, but then it's off to the races. It makes more sense in my head vs typing it out, but I've been watching this for a bit waiting on this coming week. I firmly believe this week sets up Feb-April '17, and I'm in the bull camp after OML.
Hi there. As you can see, I like to consider alternate possibilities--or not get surprised. I always respect the price action at/near R1 on the 60m level, especially when additional evidence is present (the 38% thing). But it doesn't mean it won't go lower than R1. The last 60m ml is down, too, which is not bullish at all. But perhaps it is a good place to take some profits and get back in short higher if you want to stay short (i.e. scalp). My guess is the picture will evolve to look more like what I was suggesting here on the long term chart. But I've been surprised before when prices just don't retrace much. I agree with your momentum concept. This is probably only a short-term counter move. There would have to be something out of the ordinary (lately) to overcome the implication of major medians all going down, seems to me. So, there are different degrees of trend and evidence, as you know. Price probably needs to find a much stronger support angle (like an MLH) than a 60m R1 line. After all, R1 lines get broken all the time
I awoke to find gold in the position below. Price had put in a reversal bar pattern (lower close) on the r1 line of the few-day downtrend, on slightly higher volume (the circled bars). Earlier it had reached the 38%R level. The chart now shows 2 consecutive upside zooms of the min-3 60m ml, which more strongly supports the possibility of a good move up: The first is the "4 AWI" pivot and the second is p6. AWI is short for advanced warning indicator (from the zoom rule). The data is delayed 10m.
As I was preparing the chart, which takes a few minutes, gold burst higher above the r1 line and reversal bars. So it appears to be in a third wave higher. Note that on its way down to the lower r1 line (upsloping, from prior post) we could count a nice 5 pivots, but here, on its way up to the latest possible r1 line, we have only 2. Having 5 or more to the r1 line increases the odds of a turn there (the move is more likely exhausted).
The energy of a third wave (i.e. after a p2 pullback) is often necessary to break the r1 line. r2 (not drawn) is now a possible target area where there might be a turn. Assuming this is just a small rally on the daily chart, it might come back to the larger upsloping 0-4 line center line that it crossed on its way down to the r1 line support angle. That would be a place to look to go short if other considerations support. But, having found support at the r1 from below, it might be going back to 1220. I can't predict what it will do. I'm just presenting how the Action-Reaction lens creates a quasi-logical way of looking at the apparent randomness.
On the 60m chart, gold declined from 1220.1 to a 162% external retracement of its last swing up from 1195.4. This was a factor I didn't see because the cmegroup.com software doesn't have Fib retracements/extensions. When this measurement is confluent with a 38% retracement of a larger time frame, it's very powerful to reverse the trend. Throw in a recovery of the R1 line, and you have a stronger case for a move up and a reason to cover short positions. How high I don't know, but I would expect to the 4AWI level at least, and maybe the 1220.1 high.
I remember reading last week just before the jump that Volkswagen are embedding silver in their windshields as a defroster. This will replace copper and is set to be installed on even lower end models like Golf.
60m gold has rallied in 5 m3 60m pivots and satisfied the "zoom rule", which was to reach the value of the prior p4 of 1205 at a minimum. P3 reached the ml from p0; but then p4 failed the ml from p1, and p5 failed the ml from p2. This is a shakeout, and a warning that the trend could sharply reverse lower from here; this could be the start of a third wave down. A reliable trend change signal in this pivot pattern is the hourly close under the sh drawn. In the current context it would also serve as an exit long signal, and a short signal if the risk is acceptable. The upper parallel of the initial channel, sloping down on the daily chart, was pretty close to the high made so far this evening.
Gold started lower on the sh break (after p5) but not for long. So the shakeout concept failed. Price found support at the latest ml from 3, conjunct wl#1 from below. After taking out p5, it retraced back to a tick above, and popped strongly higher. The pivot pattern of p3 thru p6 reminds me of the running correction pattern in EWave (for a wave 2 in a 3rd wave up). At this point it looks like the turn at the larger R1 (and 38%R) with implied return to pZ is the correct interpretation of the price action. A turn at pZ or higher that also reaches the initial ml from p0 would be something to look for, as that ml has already been touched once (at 3). Maybe this happens at the 2p tops line, where the old CL crosses? That's in about 10 bars.
I threw in the classic H&S projection line, and it's in the neighborhood.
Could this price action be the start of something much larger to the upside? It could be.
Or is it just a B or X wave, with lots more downside to come? Whichever it turns out to be, a return to PZ appears most probable.
Turning at a major line intersection so far today...
I'm already beginning to look past the month of January to February 2017, and 5th-6th, 8th and 12th look promising for good trading opportunity
Is that long or short?