The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 1:26am
boomer sooner
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It's going ^ > v that way or <

Wow. Broker is becoming more humble. Things are a changing.

Great writings all.

Something that has been knawing at me is why are ALL markets not responsive to real inputs. Casino is the best term I can find for the markets of today. The oNE financial item that has a stable path, you cannot buy, as far as I know. That is the national debts. Is there an etf that tracks, say the US debt. That would be an easy one to grab. Or Italian debt, French? No. Why? Because it's predictable and you could make honest money rather than gambling on which way the cronies are going to push, and how hard. The instability is how the insiders end up with your stuff.

Even those of us who don't trade can see its becoming harder to stay afloat. Those with higher that modest lifestyles are going to get a rude awakening in the next 10 years, unless a boom hits. Sure, some are making more fiat, but the number of those is dwindling and can't see it because they are making more through some kind of subsidy, primarily government or insurance.

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 5:54am argentus maximus
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Probabilities and

Probabilities and possibilities, isn't that what it's all about ?

70-75%ish probability with a breakout in the same direction as it was before:


Less than 30%, five waves down

argentus maximus wrote:

... The market only does fives a third of the time or less.

Somewhat comforting going forward. BOJ announcement today, stronger yen and a weaker dollar?

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 11:56am
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Silverwood- to your mining point

Regarding mining, one interesting tidbit from TF's interview last week with Brent Cook (highly experienced mining geologist, very professional, no-nonsense 30 year pro) was a side comment he made that really made me sit up and take notice. His investment strategy for seeking and rating mining companies is designed to be somewhat immune to gold price fluctuations, he is one of those pros who takes emotion out of it and just sees gold as stuff in the ground you get out at X grams per ton of ore, extraction cost X$ per ton, geologic layer should project to be be X meters thick, etc. His approach is to A. identify mid-tier producers that own large, proven reserves, put value to those reserves the way the biggest mining companies would, then B. calculate the buyout potential and buy the best of those companies. The big boys need ounces and proven reserves, and have to get them somewhere, and they have no choice but to buy these companies sooner or later, period.

Anyway, his comment was this- For the last 15 years, the top 5 mining companies in the world have been producing roughly 90 tons of gold for every 40 tons of new, proven mineable reserves discovered, anywhere, period. They have bought all the good reserves, mined most of them, and bought out all the good mid-tier companies, so Brent and his partner are now having to buy much smaller companies way down the food chain because those are the only proven companies with reserves of any size left.

Coming from such a no BS, no hype guy like that, I was pretty amazed... I know the stock to flow ratio is truly huge for gold, recycling is huge, etc., but still... profitable new supply is just not out there anymore, by and large. One would think this fact will have an effect at some point, the question is how old will we be when it happens?

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 3:00pm Pining 4 the Fjords
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Pining asks

"the question is how old will we be when it happens?" Probably not too old to still be able give all those goose killers one great big giant Bronx Salute!

Mon, Dec 19, 2016 - 4:52pm eclectic
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eclectic,

Sir, you articulate very well the sentiments I feel about the possibility of a doomsday scenario for the bugs. I believe I have arrived at the conclusion of saying 'eff! the rothchild bankers and the cartel members' who make life on this planet the misery and suffering they have created through funding wars and other tools of financial manipulation through hedgemony. As another poster stated, I may not receive the fruits and benefits of my honest money, but I'll be cheering from above if it's not in my lifetime. Sometimes we have to fight the battles we know we may well lose. I say, 'from my cold dead hands'. Yes, they are trying to totally demoralize us and destroy us financially. I would refer you to the following site for a potentially more optimistic view, especially the writings in his archives last month.

thank you for voicing my feelings so well!

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 2:17am brokerk22
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Re: Brokerk22 --- Rambus

I read the latest Rambus also. I lost major respect for him. Months ago he was ranting about how this was the big continuation of the bull market, generational wave up, etc... and now he says he never really believed in that rally. What a fcking whore! These arsehats will make up anything for subscribers. Theres this guy peter on twitter who loves to yap about holding strong opinions lightly. An opinion held lightly cannot be strong! Its all a bunch of rhetoric imo so they can pat themselves on the back and caress their ego no matter which way the market turns. I think everyone has the right to express their views on which potential ways markets can go , but i take this kind of dishonest discussion about the markets personally. Its a reflection of your character. I wouldnt want to be out on any battlefield with a biittch that holds strong opinions lightly.

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 4:19am
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G-V Newsflow samples:Russian

G-V Newsflow samples:

Russian ambassador shot in Turkey; 12 dead 48 injured in Truck-pedestrian terror-murder in Berlin, Clinton attempt to subvert electoral college function fails, 3 wounded in Zurich Islamic Centre shooting, Uber driver stabs passenger in Beverley Hills, Story about rape and murder of teenage daughter of a European Union (EU) official by an Afghan migrant/refugee finally breaks in Germany after running in the rest of the world first - German media interviews Merkel's PC excuses as part of their late coverage ....

From the limited perspective of this blog: In the circumstances gold couldn't be sold down. Gold has it's next timeline tomorrow. So the H2 2016 gold bear swing story is not quite done yet.

Winter solstice is tomorrow.

I remind readers that I reported a week or more back that the V component of my proprietary G-V Effect would peak 15, 17, 19 December, and will rise to elevated levels and remain extreme for a substantial part of January 2017 (dates not posted here yet). This times among other things precious metals and bonds volatility spikes but when it also times wider societal violence then the price control of gold by selling becomes unprofitable and risky to those who engage in it.

My sympathy, condolences and best wishes for any readers who may have family, or friends caught up in this V peak.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 7:09am
Safety Dan
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Make Money From Disaster??? >>> Deep EQ leads to large EQ

Make Money From Disaster??? >>> Deep EQ leads to large EQ Posted in main thread..

M6.7 earthquake strikes during update -- Deep EQ leads to large EQ

Watch this video and learn how he accurately predicts earthquakes.

Plus see how the smaller earthquakes cause larger quakes. How they are directed to a given area and focused energy results in damage. Repeated impacts to faults cause larger quakes.

12/19/2016 -- M6.7 earthquake strikes during update -- Deep EQ leads to large EQ

12/19/2016 -- M6.7 earthquake strikes during update -- Deep EQ leads to large EQ

Video is 57:32 long. Learn in the first 10 minutes of his accurate calls from the previous day.

This sounds horrific, but it seems one can profit by knowing where the quakes are going to happen and short their markets if its a larger quake forecasted. Ideas?

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 9:24am
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@Solsson

Looks like we're going to get that 3 handle on JNUG at the open... you taking a bite at 3.93? Just curious! I may wait to see if I can snipe a bit if I get an obvious shot at a low on the 9:55-10:05 drop and see if that holds up for the day, but I may just stand aside if it doesn't look good.

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 11:40am
Solsson
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Pining

Yepp scaled in for the second time, today at 3.87 should have sold all my miners when argentus put out his gold analysis last Monday, but then you think, how bad is it going to get. Pretty bad ...

but hey I didnt end up under a truck ... or got shot in the back ...

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 12:04pm
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Ha!

Good snag on the open early- I hesitated waiting to see if we got something better thus did not jump in, so am still crouching on the sidelines. And hey, at least your day is going better than this guy!

https://i.imgur.com/OsdC58v.mp4

I hope that vid isn't a metaphor for our attempts here...

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 12:32pm
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Ray Dalio, Bridgewater

Ray Dalio's 1-month-in assessment of the Trump administration's prospects:

Reflections on the Trump Presidency, One Month after the Election

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reflections-trump-presidency-one-month-af...

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Dec 21, 2016 - 1:16am
Pete
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from Raymond Merriman (astro cycle analyst)

FWIW:

In discussing aspects culminating soon:

"...Although all are important, it is the opposition between Jupiter and Uranus that stands out most, for it is the highest ranked of all planetary aspects correlating with primary or greater cycles in the DJIA, given an orb of 12 trading days, as reported in our studies of The Ultimate Book of Stock Market Timing Volume 3 : Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles. In every instance analyzed since 1934, at least a half-primary cycle has unfolded in this time band, and in over 83% of those cases, it has been a primary or greater cycle that culminated. (my emphasis)

Much else in the monthly message, publicly available.

Wed, Dec 21, 2016 - 12:52pm
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The 12 days of Solstice - Day 12 - sunlight in the passage of ..

The 12 days of Solstice - Day 12 - sunlight in the passage of Newgrange on the dawn of Winter Solstice

Winter Solstice has officially arrived. Today the sun reaches its minimum declination - its furthest southerly position in the sky. This is the turning point of the year. As the sun rises above Red Mountain in the Boyne Valley this morning (weather permitting), its light will enter through an opening above the passage entrance known as the 'roof box' and will illuminate the central chamber, which lies about 20 metres inside the cairn, for around 17 minutes. The lucky Winter Solstice Lottery winners will be inside, while hundreds will gather outside. This year, there will be 20 Irish wolfhound dogs at Newgrange too. It should be a great morning.

The photo shows a view taken on Winter Solstice 2010 just as I was emerging from the chamber where I had witnessed the solstice illumination for the first time. As you can see .........

If you're interested, more can be found about this, and the other days of the solstice in the Mythical Ireland Blog HERE

if you want to read the series of entries of "the twelve days of the winter solstice" - and I recommend it for the photos of megalithic construction alone - the first entry can be found HERE

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Dec 21, 2016 - 10:28pm argentus maximus
HardAssets
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Ray Dalio

argentus maximus wrote:

Ray Dalio's 1-month-in assessment of the Trump administration's prospects:

Reflections on the Trump Presidency, One Month after the Election

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reflections-trump-presidency-one-month-af...

A pro-business US with its rule of law, political stability, property rights protections, and (soon to be) favorable corporate taxes offers a uniquely attractive environment for those who make money and/or have money. These policies will also have shocking negative impacts on certain sectors.

What are the thoughts on that last sentence?

These policies will also have shocking negative impacts on certain sectors.

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 5:06am
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Interesting headlines appearing

I was interested to read this today:

Bank of Japan raises growth outlook:

>>>The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold and turned optimistic on the growth outlook as a slide in the yen sharply improves the outlook for Japan in 2017.

Japan’s economy is “likely to turn to a moderate expansion” with rising domestic demand, large-scale fiscal stimulus and growing exports, the central bank said...... <<<<

https://www.ft.com/content/718994aa-c662-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f

and also this:

Japan Slashes 2017 Bond Issuance By 5% In Implicit Boost To QE; First Reduction In 10Y JGBs Since 1998

>>> ..... Japan's ministry of finance announced on Thursday that for the first time since 1998 it would slash government bond issuance in fiscal 2017 which starts on April 1. The MOF plans to issue Y154.0 trillion in JGBs in coming fiscal year, down 5% from an initial Y162.2 trillion for the current fiscal year, as a result of sliding demand for debt amid continued very low to negative interest rates.

The JGB plans also feature a rare year-on-year cut in the issuance of 10-year JGBs: such a reduction is the first since fiscal 1998.

According to MarketNews, the government is also trying to reduce its dependence on debt issuance ...... <<<

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-21/japan-slashes-2017-bond-issuance-5-implicit-boost-qe-first-reduction-10y-jgbs-1998

So what was the year 1998 in terms of the gold market's past? It was moving towards the end of a brutal bear market which had seen the value of the precious metals reduced to 60% of what it formerly was..

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 5:30am
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1998 Gold Chart

1998 Gold Chart:

Now I'm not saying that this is exactly the same - Japan is only one of the global heavyweight countries - but gold has been in a multi year descending consolidation (since the early 2014 high), and if you look at the chart above, after the late 1997 low gold also went sideways and a bit down for three years or so.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 8:22am argentus maximus
eclectic
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@1998 Gold Chart

Won't bore the group with many details but A.M.'s chart and my musings on the 8-yr gold cycle, dovetail with the following analog. The extreme price low was recorded in late August, 1999, consolidated and tested again in April, 2001, a time period encompassing 19-months. If history repeats, (which it seldom does exactly) nineteen months from the lows recorded in December, 2015 would take us into July, 2015 before an impulsive CIT to the upside. Again, those pesky cycles of fixed periodicity!

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 12:10pm argentus maximus
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argentus maximus wrote: Japan

argentus maximus wrote:

Japan is only one of the global heavyweight countries

Fiddling with JGB sounds very familiar to me. What if Japan would get some help from BRICS I don't know if there is something coming up going into 2017. What if BRICS wants a bigger slice of the pie I am not sure what pie I am talking about but you need +15% of it in order to have a veto. US losing pie and BRICS gaining ...

The red chart looks interesting:

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 2:35pm
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XAU-Precious Metals Miners Index Chart

It seems like there should be long term support at the Yellow box area. This is a Log chart. That is another 8-9% down