The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 12:04pm
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Ha!

Good snag on the open early- I hesitated waiting to see if we got something better thus did not jump in, so am still crouching on the sidelines. And hey, at least your day is going better than this guy!

https://i.imgur.com/OsdC58v.mp4

I hope that vid isn't a metaphor for our attempts here...

Tue, Dec 20, 2016 - 12:32pm
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Ray Dalio, Bridgewater

Ray Dalio's 1-month-in assessment of the Trump administration's prospects:

Reflections on the Trump Presidency, One Month after the Election

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reflections-trump-presidency-one-month-after-election-ray-dalio

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Dec 21, 2016 - 1:16am
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from Raymond Merriman (astro cycle analyst)

FWIW:

In discussing aspects culminating soon:

"...Although all are important, it is the opposition between Jupiter and Uranus that stands out most, for it is the highest ranked of all planetary aspects correlating with primary or greater cycles in the DJIA, given an orb of 12 trading days, as reported in our studies of The Ultimate Book of Stock Market Timing Volume 3 : Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles. In every instance analyzed since 1934, at least a half-primary cycle has unfolded in this time band, and in over 83% of those cases, it has been a primary or greater cycle that culminated. (my emphasis)

Much else in the monthly message, publicly available.

Wed, Dec 21, 2016 - 12:52pm
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The 12 days of Solstice - Day 12 - sunlight in the passage of ..

The 12 days of Solstice - Day 12 - sunlight in the passage of Newgrange on the dawn of Winter Solstice

Winter Solstice has officially arrived. Today the sun reaches its minimum declination - its furthest southerly position in the sky. This is the turning point of the year. As the sun rises above Red Mountain in the Boyne Valley this morning (weather permitting), its light will enter through an opening above the passage entrance known as the 'roof box' and will illuminate the central chamber, which lies about 20 metres inside the cairn, for around 17 minutes. The lucky Winter Solstice Lottery winners will be inside, while hundreds will gather outside. This year, there will be 20 Irish wolfhound dogs at Newgrange too. It should be a great morning.

The photo shows a view taken on Winter Solstice 2010 just as I was emerging from the chamber where I had witnessed the solstice illumination for the first time. As you can see .........

If you're interested, more can be found about this, and the other days of the solstice in the Mythical Ireland Blog HERE

if you want to read the series of entries of "the twelve days of the winter solstice" - and I recommend it for the photos of megalithic construction alone - the first entry can be found HERE

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Dec 21, 2016 - 10:28pm (Reply to #9633)
HardAssets
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Ray Dalio

argentus maximus wrote:

Ray Dalio's 1-month-in assessment of the Trump administration's prospects:

Reflections on the Trump Presidency, One Month after the Election

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reflections-trump-presidency-one-month-after-election-ray-dalio

A pro-business US with its rule of law, political stability, property rights protections, and (soon to be) favorable corporate taxes offers a uniquely attractive environment for those who make money and/or have money. These policies will also have shocking negative impacts on certain sectors.

What are the thoughts on that last sentence?

These policies will also have shocking negative impacts on certain sectors.

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 5:06am
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Interesting headlines appearing

I was interested to read this today:

Bank of Japan raises growth outlook:

>>>The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold and turned optimistic on the growth outlook as a slide in the yen sharply improves the outlook for Japan in 2017.

Japan’s economy is “likely to turn to a moderate expansion” with rising domestic demand, large-scale fiscal stimulus and growing exports, the central bank said...... <<<<

https://www.ft.com/content/718994aa-c662-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f

and also this:

Japan Slashes 2017 Bond Issuance By 5% In Implicit Boost To QE; First Reduction In 10Y JGBs Since 1998

>>> ..... Japan's ministry of finance announced on Thursday that for the first time since 1998 it would slash government bond issuance in fiscal 2017 which starts on April 1. The MOF plans to issue Y154.0 trillion in JGBs in coming fiscal year, down 5% from an initial Y162.2 trillion for the current fiscal year, as a result of sliding demand for debt amid continued very low to negative interest rates.

The JGB plans also feature a rare year-on-year cut in the issuance of 10-year JGBs: such a reduction is the first since fiscal 1998.

According to MarketNews, the government is also trying to reduce its dependence on debt issuance ...... <<<

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-21/japan-slashes-2017-bond-issuance-5-implicit-boost-qe-first-reduction-10y-jgbs-1998

So what was the year 1998 in terms of the gold market's past? It was moving towards the end of a brutal bear market which had seen the value of the precious metals reduced to 60% of what it formerly was..

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 5:30am
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1998 Gold Chart

1998 Gold Chart:

Now I'm not saying that this is exactly the same - Japan is only one of the global heavyweight countries - but gold has been in a multi year descending consolidation (since the early 2014 high), and if you look at the chart above, after the late 1997 low gold also went sideways and a bit down for three years or so.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 8:22am (Reply to #9638)
eclectic
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@1998 Gold Chart

Won't bore the group with many details but A.M.'s chart and my musings on the 8-yr gold cycle, dovetail with the following analog. The extreme price low was recorded in late August, 1999, consolidated and tested again in April, 2001, a time period encompassing 19-months. If history repeats, (which it seldom does exactly) nineteen months from the lows recorded in December, 2015 would take us into July, 2015 before an impulsive CIT to the upside. Again, those pesky cycles of fixed periodicity!

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 12:10pm (Reply to #9638)
Solsson
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argentus maximus wrote: Japan

argentus maximus wrote:

Japan is only one of the global heavyweight countries

Fiddling with JGB sounds very familiar to me. What if Japan would get some help from BRICS I don't know if there is something coming up going into 2017. What if BRICS wants a bigger slice of the pie I am not sure what pie I am talking about but you need +15% of it in order to have a veto. US losing pie and BRICS gaining ...

The red chart looks interesting:

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 2:35pm
HardAssets
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XAU-Precious Metals Miners Index Chart

It seems like there should be long term support at the Yellow box area. This is a Log chart. That is another 8-9% down

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 2:37pm
HardAssets
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XAU-Precious Metals Miners Index Chart

Whoops duplicate post. That was odd. I'll delete this one.

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 4:10pm
kentucky
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Jordan

Precious Metals Video Update: Rally Coming Now or at Lower Price?
kentucky
Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 4:14pm
brokerk22
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@HardAssets

Im sure if it drops another 8-9% you can find another chart that says we need to drop another 8-9% to hit support. The point is, in a downtred it always needs to go lower for some fictional support level. Its fuckin rigged nothing else.

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 5:22pm
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They can only rig it in ways

They can only rig it in ways that will work or they risk losing their money instead of taking yours! In other words they can't rig it randomly. And non random moves are predictable moves. There are rules implicit in the art of rigging. And if you learn what they need to make rigging successful, then you might be able to see what they see. Then you might buy at lows instead of at other times.

By the way. If rigging was random in implementation, you do know that random markets can be traded profitably? Here's an example of a trading system for random price movement. You wait until it goes randomly up high, then sell. Later when it randomly decides to come down low you buy. In between, for random periods you do nothing.

Anyway what makes you think that rigging is the dominant factor in price moves? Could it be that global economics accounts for let's say 10%, wars and military ventures for maybe 30%. How about weather, climate and agricultural success or failure changing inflation in food? Let's give weather related factors 25%? That's 65% of the price movement accounted for and 100% minus 65% leaves 35%. What about the rigging now? Does it control the remaining 35% of price change? We didn't allow for gold mining, discoveries of new gold and end of lifespan of old gold mines .... those factors must surely be worth at least 20% of the gold price moves. So now we have 35% minus 20% = 15% for rigging. And I didn't mention political uncertainty which must be a biggie but lets' skip that or the rigging might begin to look like I deny it's existence.

Markets have been rigged since forever. There never was a time when bullying tactics and tricks and misinformation were not employed to take money from the weak in this arena. You thinks it's bad but need to know there never was a good old days in markets. It was always tricks and force.

And here we are trying to spot the bottom and take advantage of the selling, or rigging, or whatever it was because I don't really care why it went down. What I care about is taking advantage of that and buying as low as I can. I hope you do too. A year ago I said I thought we would have a retest and you called me out on it. You said I was too bearish. I replied in the vein of big trading range basing formation construction. Well .... here we are. I think it's great we can buy again.

But it's better for you than it is for me. You need to look at gold in other currencies than the dollar to see why. I use Euros. Gold is way up, even at lows. The dollar is the outlier, not gold. Expensive dollars and cheap gold ... what should a thoughtful person do?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 9:13pm (Reply to #9644)
HardAssets
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brokerk22

brokerk22 wrote:

Im sure if it drops another 8-9% you can find another chart that says we need to drop another 8-9% to hit support. The point is, in a downtred it always needs to go lower for some fictional support level. Its fuckin rigged nothing else.

It does seem like that sometimes. AM answered in a deeper way.

For a period of time - precious metals companies were ran into the ground by incompetent greedy empty suit asshat CEO's and board members. Thats what led into the price collapse. It wasn't always that way. These companies were some of the best trading i.e. price predictable companies from 2001 - 2007. Supposedly - a lot of the balance sheets have been improved. Earnings also start looking better -- when compared to a previous year that was a collapse.

Thu, Dec 22, 2016 - 9:26pm (Reply to #9639)
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Eclectic

Love your posts... succinct and to the point unlike some of the endless esoteric drivel that goes on here.

Fri, Dec 23, 2016 - 8:36am
eclectic
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Post 9629

Just noticed a silly error. Sentence should read: 'should take us into July, 2017'.

Sirtitan45 thank you for that compliment. Wish I were more knowledgable.

Fri, Dec 23, 2016 - 8:56am
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AM and Armstrong

I don't think there is much distance in what both are saying. I think they go out it slightly differently and wonder if maybe they are both tapping into something similar.

The bear maybe not over quite yet from what im seeing both say. but i could be wrong. Armstrong is saying that we have to hit a closing below a certain number for the intraday low ti occur in 2017 and that will be it. IF it doesn't happen then it's expanding into later 2017/early 2018 before we take off.

We could be entering a new low shortly, but AM has been calling points in time that look like attractive buys. So this has been good insights.

Ive started to also take a few trades--i started looking at armstrong over a year ago and went into the dow. im up 15% not bad.

i shorted gold for the fist time im UP. I may go long in the dollar as well. waiting and watching. Patience is key.

Dont' buy the dips buy the turning points. would have saved me much money.

Is turd still saying buy the dips.

Fri, Dec 23, 2016 - 10:10am
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GoldMania

TF has been advising caution (not saying buy now, rather be cautious of further decline) and warning that until the COT structure washes out more, it's dicey. That said, were getting to a point where rallies can happen but the market is such a joke there's no telling for sure. He has been advising longer term investors that stacking at these cheap prices is a gift.

As for Armstrong, I posted this on his missing the most profitable turn and rip (30% in 6 months) in gold quite badly, while TF and Argentus nailed it. Links embedded for accuracy:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/660534#comment-660534

Fri, Dec 23, 2016 - 10:21am (Reply to #9650)
GoldMania3000
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GoldMania

I actually have purchased Armstrongs Ask-socreates and the gold report. Armstrong did actually call the turn at end of December. "gold is not as weak: and ask -scoreteas report gold turning back up.

The armstrong videos have been good along the way--you don't get the details from the blog.

randomness