The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Dec 16, 2016 - 3:36am
Pete
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Gold Monthly

Here's another look at the situation.

Price just touched the old R1 line today (Thursday). Next month there is super strong support at 1106.8-1107.60. I mention this range, absurd as it may sound, because the July top was within several ticks of the cross of the lines shown. The lines have worked pretty well to define the monthly ranges of prices after the high. The big 2P line doesn't hurt, either. FWIW.

I believe that the monthly closes must stay above the old r1 line at this point if gold is to find a bottom above last year's low.

These markets have lost all sense of value.

Fri, Dec 16, 2016 - 4:44am
Byzantium
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Well, at 103, I guess the longtime formidable resistance at 100, has now been comprehensively pierced.

Does it now have a clear run to 120?

Fri, Dec 16, 2016 - 1:30pm argentus maximus
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argentus maximus wrote: ...

argentus maximus wrote:
... gold needs to begin picking up a bid there ...
Yes I think Trump&Co will fight a stronger dollar in order to get the wheels rolling. A stronger dollar would not benefit the new administration. Then he needs to liquidate debt so he really needs inflation. They will be forced to initiate qe4 sooner or later. Do you think there has been a phase shift for the timeline of Gold due to the bond walking into a wall on 7th of July 2016, bye bye a-b-c structure, hello impulsive waves 1-5? Or is it too soon to make a call ... one step at the time.

I looked at HUI, GDXJ, SILJ and SLV this morning and all of them look really strong. A possible third wave coming in 2017:

I bought a small position in JNUG today, just for the fun of it have a nice weekend folks.

Edit:

Welcome back Pete, what a week. Hahaha Crimex Gold monthly, yes I agree I am upset when real assets gets hammered and pumped up fake stockmarkets keeps on going, 7years now without a real correction, disgusting stuff !

Sat, Dec 17, 2016 - 6:31pm
silverwood
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Ronnie Fattal's 12/17/16 gold and silver analysis

Wow! Ronnie is as bearish as you can get. If you believe what he is saying then making money with bearish gold/silver etf's is very low risk. My problem with this bearish scenario is so is everyone else! Will everyone make a killing playing the downside to PMs?

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold & Silver as of 17th December 2016
Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 7:20am argentus maximus
Solsson
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argentus maximus wrote: This

argentus maximus wrote:

This down pulse has days left, not weeks, imo.

Agree, I think it will turn around next week. These EW experts like Ronnie Fatal has a overly bullish/bearish view during trendshifts. We are very late in the correction, 3-4months now and a final washout lately. At the same time we got a parabolic rise in stocks. This has to turn around soon and looking at last two seasons that has been the case. Miners might correct a little bit longer into mid Jan or 20th when Trump heads into office.

If we keep it simple, looking at the latest developments in gold will it break upwards or downwards:

Remember Argentus BP chart from 61.8 years ago, in 1954 the company changed name from Anglo-Iranian Oil Company to British Petroleum. The chart showed a breakout gap to the upside, I dont know ... what do you think, will the EW be correct ? Next week is key imo.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 10:02am
brokerk22
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@silverwood

If that Elliott Wave guy is even half right we are totally fucked. Then its time to throw your silver and gold out the window. No point even posting here then. Turd's site would be shut down. He is talking about 2 years plus grinding in low teens for silver and 900-1100 in gold. 50% of miners would be toast. In short it would time to throw in the towel. They win we lose period!

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 10:38am
brokerk22
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@silverwood

Ill have to admit watching an EW video like that scares the abosolute shit out of me and tests my resolve. In the face of obvious positive fundamentals the paper price does not and will not react because of egregious interferance. It defintately could happen that way and I constantly worry about this possibility. I will lose tremendous wealth, credibility, and suffer great stress in addition to what I have already suffered. If we do move lower and dollar higher it will have to be quick and a quick recovery. If not then yes I think this Ronnie Fataly could be correct unfortunately. If it is long and drawn out then we are in a hopeless scenario for our positions for the most part because even 2 more years of this would destroy most. Only the ones getting in at the bottom and physical holders would benefit. Truly a worst case scenario.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 10:59am
Solsson
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#brokerk22 Have you seen the

#brokerk22

Have you seen the movie "The Mist" written by Stephen King? You do not want to be one of the guys in the car at the end. Sheer up.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 11:22am brokerk22
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@silverwood/broker22

Sir, you articulate very well the sentiments I feel about the possibility of a doomsday scenario for the bugs. I believe I have arrived at the conclusion of saying 'eff! the rothchild bankers and the cartel members' who make life on this planet the misery and suffering they have created through funding wars and other tools of financial manipulation through hedgemony. As another poster stated, I may not receive the fruits and benefits of my honest money, but I'll be cheering from above if it's not in my lifetime. Sometimes we have to fight the battles we know we may well lose. I say, 'from my cold dead hands'. Yes, they are trying to totally demoralize us and destroy us financially. I would refer you to the following site for a potentially more optimistic view, especially the writings in his archives last month.

https://averybgoodman.com/myblog/

Finally, there is this slightly more optimistic EW interpretation, from guy named 'Sam' on a private blog.

I posted earlier that extreme patience would be necessary. My hope is to be a survivor. If not I fought a good fight for intangibles that are worth more than any amount of money.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 11:33am
brokerk22
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@electic

I understand you guys are EW technical folks. I am not huge fan of charts being predictors and the holy grail. That scenario is not much better and if prove even close to correct we might as well sell all metals go long the market. Something has to give.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 11:47am
brokerk22
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@Electic

I am to young (40s) to take that attitude. I need to discern if this fantasy is going to continue more than a year or two it is not worth it. Other than just holding physical and saying screw it which I will do. Exit all paper metal positions (miners) and look for a new career. Somewhat starting over after 21 years of brokering.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 12:06pm
brokerk22
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@electic, canary

If the dollar doesnt go to 110 or higher in the next 6-8 weeks than I think we will have our answer. It either needs to moonshoot in a short period of time or come down under 92 in next 8-10 weeks. If it doesnt do either than I would say we may be fucked and time to pack it in.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 12:59pm
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I find it challenging to say

I find it challenging to say where this decline will get to. EW says we are in a five down. I add that EW also allows for that five down to extend into a sub five, making nine down.

There are other EW counts which are also valid, EW does not dictate which is "the right count". Only the market can decide that.

Long term VAP is bearish, and I have been bearish for a while now. And I'm looking to find the termination of this swing when and where that forms. I do not want to fall into the trap of "seeing" some smaller scale reversal and thinking that that is the one I want.

But I am clear on one thing. This CAN hit new lows. It really can. And if or when that happens between December and March next, whatever everybody else does will not affect me in the slightest. I will be buying a spike bottom within a multi year trading range, looking for a rise as fast as the fall we see now.

Will I use leverage and get chucked off the bronco by the insiders? No. I will use fully paid up positions on the long side and catch that trading range. No stop running or margin rule changes will push me off. Then when I want I will lighten up and wait to do it again.

And there is a time when I won't lighten up, but this is not it.

For now, as far as I can tell this is a huge expanding bottoming pattern which is partly formed, and it will morph into a different pattern after the high following this low.

EW? Sure I use it in impulsive moves, which we are in on smaller timescale. But larger scale, this is all corrective, and the EW counts are all over the place when more than eg three years is considered. Precision is the attraction of Elliott, but to take Ronnie Fattal as an example, not knocking him in the slightest I like his candidness, but just to use his work as an example: where and when was the end of the last wave 4 up/wave B up, and what certainty is there about that - because the present count is anchored upon that starting point.

Try looking at Daneric ( nice - sounds like Prechter some of the time) or Tony Caldaro for alternative counts and try to then say this is the one and not that one. Price must choose, not the analyst. In EW the future is not written. Experience just enables better guesses as to the likely contender among counts.

So the precision of EW is an impression of precision, it's precisely measuring the angles of a spider's cobweb and drawing in the other side of the web, but only one side of the web is seen and the other side may be small and tied to this little twig , or it may be a massive and tied to the distant tree, making nonsense of our little drawing. You see, EW and every other worthwhile technique we have rely upon correct prioritization of corrections scale-wise. Prioritization sounds simple but it's the most difficult thing to get right! Take the central bankers, IMF, BIS and their gang. They look to repetition of a 37 year cycle. But Ray Dalio recently told them to look at the credit cycle, which is 70 something years since "we were here" before. I'm with Dalio on that as far as that point goes.

For EW I just call the current sub count a three of a five down, entering a four, and await the support to stop it, on a certain time point. I warn people from using EW for long term forecasts, the counts change too fast for that ESPECIALLY DURING CORRECTIVE MOVES. It's a good tool to have in the box, but it's still only one tool. If all you have is a hammer everything starts to look like a nail .... The market only does fives a third of the time or less.

Try some patterns:

The one in faint black is super bearish ending bottom right, and it's there in my possibilities. But I too have experience, which might or might nor help - I kind of like that one that I coloured green for you ..... and allow that the heavy black ones also look pretty likely to my eyes.

Can gold go up while the public is interested? Can stocks go down before they have been transferred to the public? So, what will it take to get gold into "the right hands"? A combination of price change and time. So if I'm that smart, why not just wait until the final and lowest bottom and buy? Well, I need the low before THE low, because I kind of think that best low idea won't work because I won't be able to get any PM that day due to premium going blastoff, funny legal problems, digital money/the payments system experiencing unexpected technical problems, meteors impacting the Fed, BIS falling into a sinkhole, lightning, death, plague, floods, pick your flavour! There WILL be an excuse why the public can't get on the bus before it leaves.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 1:22pm argentus maximus
eclectic
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A.M. on the EW

A great explanation of why Elliot Wave is not THE final answer for predicting time and price.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 2:30pm
brokerk22
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Electic & AM

Looking at all your EW charts, wouldnt it be safe to say none of them predict higher than say $1350 gold or $22 silver next year and most likely much lower prices say under $1000 and 12-14 silver. So if that is correct in terms of EW time to grab the ankles or just forget PM investing altogether. If you hold physical and afford to keep it, do. Other than that, its a lottery ticket and not worth the time unless say a major blackswan event.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 3:13pm brokerk22
eclectic
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broker22

I really can't answer that question re $1350 or $22 silver. I THINK Sam has an optimistic projection for gold at circa 1500 for wave C. Trading and short term forecasting is not my forte. In fact neither is long term forecasting. Look at all the gurus(Sinclair, Holter, Willie, KWN news, Richards and a slew of others) opining about how gold was going to go into a bull market for the last how many years? Iv'e lost count. It's amazing really and the banksters must me laughing their butts off. In fact you could keep a record of anytime they printed a story about a big buyer, the Comex failing, any black swan, etc. it was a perfect time to do the opposite and sell short. I have often wondered whose side those guys are really on. Shills? The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 6:55pm brokerk22
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brokerk22 wrote: If that

brokerk22 wrote:

If that Elliott Wave guy is even half right we are totally fucked. Then its time to throw your silver and gold out the window. No point even posting here then. Turd's site would be shut down. He is talking about 2 years plus grinding in low teens for silver and 900-1100 in gold. 50% of miners would be toast. In short it would time to throw in the towel. They win we lose period!

I'm with you man. But - I've never yet seen an Elliott Wave guy right -- near a big bottom. Maybe now will be a first - but its the same story each time.

I remember when gold broke out of the $400's and hit $755 -- then consolidated back to $570 or so for a couple of years in 2006. I chickened out from buying big at the lows - after listening to the Elliott Wavers screaming that Gold was heading down into low $400's. I've learned somewhat from that since.

But - I did let Armstrong talk me into selling some last December and not buying. Every other article was about the "slingshot" move where gold would break down into $800's -- possibly lower - before it made a move higher. He said the same thing about the equity markets.

It has always been a very hard trade -- buying gold - especially Gold miners --at or near a big bottom. Much panic is always in the air. Kudo's to AM/Norman. His cycle work has helped me balance the other views.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 7:11pm eclectic
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And yet it's still one of the

And yet it's still one of the best partial answers we can find!

Those greed, uncertainty and fear factors are tough to live with. But if it was easier everybody would be doing it, right?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 9:29pm
brokerk22
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LOL!

I just read Rambus (another elliott waver that I hate). They are getting laughable with their predictions. He now has a long term objective of $7.65 on silver and $685 on gold and 160 on the dollar. Maybe reality will never hit and I am the crazy one. He can shove his charts up his ass for all I care! That is so nonsensical I cant stand it.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 10:19pm
silverwood
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There is always consequences

Traders buying and selling metal contracts, investors buying and selling long and short precious metal ETFs, Chartist analyzing price movement and making projections from them and all of them can be justified in their thinking. But there is one fundamental reality to all this. Mining is a bitch! It takes tremendous effort to bring a pure ounce of gold or silver to the market. All-in-sustaining costs will ultimately trump all those traders, investors and chartist. So the bears can get greedy and drive prices to levels that may seriously injure or just kill the golden goose. If they do that then we will finally get our moon shot! So godspeed bears!