The setup for the big trade

11813 posts / 0 new
Last post
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 9:11am
kentucky
Offline
-
maggie valley, NC
Joined: Jun 20, 2011
115
342

Arbitrage

kentucky
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 9:20am
Offline
-
PA
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2162
43758

It's crazy out there, and not just in PMs

The volatility in currencies has been breathtaking, I'm not sure how some large traders or funds didn't get caught on the wrong side of some of these moves. As recently as November 9, just 6 weeks ago, USD/JPY ran stops overnight to as low as 101.17. Today it just topped 118.68. That is a monster 17% move, in a major foundational currency pair, in just 6 weeks... might be enough to blow up a few levered funds. Margin calls anyone?

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 10:03am
brokerk22
Offline
Joined: Apr 12, 2012
975
4265

At this point

everyone here should be routing for the dollar to go higher from and much higher. We should all for this to happen as quick as possible. The sooner the dollar crushes all other currencies the sooner this is over.

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 10:08am
Byzantium
Offline
-
London
UK
Joined: Feb 20, 2012
1601
8507

@ Pining & Argentus

to tie up both your posts, yeah, gold in Yen continues to be relatively flat, as it has been for 5 years now. Even silver to some extent.

I know this Yen angle has been covered so many times before, but it continues to be an absurdity.

Following the logic through, we'll go sub $1000 gold, at around 133 yen to the dollar. That's assuming a straight line relationship; but that relationship has been in place now for almost 6 years, and has held firm so far, and up to 124 Yen:USD.

Luckily, according to your chart, the dollar:yen has finally settled /(sarc).

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 10:09am (Reply to #9588)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1025
4002

eclectic wrote: Slosson, your

eclectic wrote:

Slosson, your post may be the most important of the year ...

Ah Tx, you make me blush and btw it's Solsson

Pining, I am looking for 3.93ish that is a final frontier for this downmove? Thank you for the tip .

Of course this is only a small portion of my portfolio.

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 10:19am
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3725
24718

It just occurred to me that

It just occurred to me that what I said in the above post can be misconstrued!

What I mean is at the end of January I suspect gold may stop outperforming silver, but for a couple of weeks, maybe about four, it looks (at the moment to me) like silver might be starting to do some catching up with gold's recent weakness, i.e. taking a turn in the role as the weaker of the pair of PMs.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 3:16pm (Reply to #9597)
kentucky
Offline
-
maggie valley, NC
Joined: Jun 20, 2011
115
342

AM

Great. We go down for the next month. Buy low sell high.

Gann global, Ski, Jimmy Rogers, TDG, Hurst, Randomowski, D-square, Rambus, Hunt, Hoye, Capt. Hook, Frailey, and every technician worth his salt is bearish.

There is nothing to stop this from sub 1000 and 12 silver. Bring it on

kentucky
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 3:17pm (Reply to #9597)
kentucky
Offline
-
maggie valley, NC
Joined: Jun 20, 2011
115
342

(No subject)

kentucky
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 4:52pm
Byzantium
Offline
-
London
UK
Joined: Feb 20, 2012
1601
8507

Footsie now above 7000

Dammit. It is confirming the move in the DOW.

Or is it just JPM and GS selling a second share back and forth a trillion times a day, this time in London?

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 6:01pm (Reply to #9598)
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3725
24718

kentucky wrote:..... There is

kentucky wrote:
..... There is nothing to stop this from sub 1000 and 12 silver. Bring it on

There is strong support which I marked on a recent chart. If the bears can't break that, 2016 plots a higher low retesting the 2015 lows. The decline is fast, and close to this support already - which is indeed bearish.

BUT ..... we are above that support. Above is above. And the favourable time for putting on bear trades with good prospect of success is almost over. Late bears are likely to experience financial pain getting out! Experienced bears will know not to push the odds taking on risk into fading liquidity. This down pulse has days left, not weeks, imo.

Let's see how the week goes, only one day left, and we will see whether I remain short term bearish next week. I want to see how far the bears can get it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Dec 16, 2016 - 3:36am
Pete
Offline
-
Fair Oaks, CA
Joined: Jun 24, 2011
1005
3615

Gold Monthly

Here's another look at the situation.

Price just touched the old R1 line today (Thursday). Next month there is super strong support at 1106.8-1107.60. I mention this range, absurd as it may sound, because the July top was within several ticks of the cross of the lines shown. The lines have worked pretty well to define the monthly ranges of prices after the high. The big 2P line doesn't hurt, either. FWIW.

I believe that the monthly closes must stay above the old r1 line at this point if gold is to find a bottom above last year's low.

These markets have lost all sense of value.

Fri, Dec 16, 2016 - 4:44am
Byzantium
Offline
-
London
UK
Joined: Feb 20, 2012
1601
8507

USDX

Well, at 103, I guess the longtime formidable resistance at 100, has now been comprehensively pierced.

Does it now have a clear run to 120?

Fri, Dec 16, 2016 - 1:30pm (Reply to #9589)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1025
4002

argentus maximus wrote: ...

argentus maximus wrote:
... gold needs to begin picking up a bid there ...
Yes I think Trump&Co will fight a stronger dollar in order to get the wheels rolling. A stronger dollar would not benefit the new administration. Then he needs to liquidate debt so he really needs inflation. They will be forced to initiate qe4 sooner or later. Do you think there has been a phase shift for the timeline of Gold due to the bond walking into a wall on 7th of July 2016, bye bye a-b-c structure, hello impulsive waves 1-5? Or is it too soon to make a call ... one step at the time.

I looked at HUI, GDXJ, SILJ and SLV this morning and all of them look really strong. A possible third wave coming in 2017:

I bought a small position in JNUG today, just for the fun of it have a nice weekend folks.

Edit:

Welcome back Pete, what a week. Hahaha Crimex Gold monthly, yes I agree I am upset when real assets gets hammered and pumped up fake stockmarkets keeps on going, 7years now without a real correction, disgusting stuff !

Sat, Dec 17, 2016 - 6:31pm
silverwood
Offline
-
Kilauea, HI
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
651
1754

Ronnie Fattal's 12/17/16 gold and silver analysis

Wow! Ronnie is as bearish as you can get. If you believe what he is saying then making money with bearish gold/silver etf's is very low risk. My problem with this bearish scenario is so is everyone else! Will everyone make a killing playing the downside to PMs?

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold & Silver as of 17th December 2016
Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 7:20am (Reply to #9601)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1025
4002

argentus maximus wrote: This

argentus maximus wrote:

This down pulse has days left, not weeks, imo.

Agree, I think it will turn around next week. These EW experts like Ronnie Fatal has a overly bullish/bearish view during trendshifts. We are very late in the correction, 3-4months now and a final washout lately. At the same time we got a parabolic rise in stocks. This has to turn around soon and looking at last two seasons that has been the case. Miners might correct a little bit longer into mid Jan or 20th when Trump heads into office.

If we keep it simple, looking at the latest developments in gold will it break upwards or downwards:

Remember Argentus BP chart from 61.8 years ago, in 1954 the company changed name from Anglo-Iranian Oil Company to British Petroleum. The chart showed a breakout gap to the upside, I dont know ... what do you think, will the EW be correct ? Next week is key imo.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 10:02am
brokerk22
Offline
Joined: Apr 12, 2012
975
4265

@silverwood

If that Elliott Wave guy is even half right we are totally fucked. Then its time to throw your silver and gold out the window. No point even posting here then. Turd's site would be shut down. He is talking about 2 years plus grinding in low teens for silver and 900-1100 in gold. 50% of miners would be toast. In short it would time to throw in the towel. They win we lose period!

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 10:38am
brokerk22
Offline
Joined: Apr 12, 2012
975
4265

@silverwood

Ill have to admit watching an EW video like that scares the abosolute shit out of me and tests my resolve. In the face of obvious positive fundamentals the paper price does not and will not react because of egregious interferance. It defintately could happen that way and I constantly worry about this possibility. I will lose tremendous wealth, credibility, and suffer great stress in addition to what I have already suffered. If we do move lower and dollar higher it will have to be quick and a quick recovery. If not then yes I think this Ronnie Fataly could be correct unfortunately. If it is long and drawn out then we are in a hopeless scenario for our positions for the most part because even 2 more years of this would destroy most. Only the ones getting in at the bottom and physical holders would benefit. Truly a worst case scenario.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 10:59am
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1025
4002

#brokerk22 Have you seen the

#brokerk22

Have you seen the movie "The Mist" written by Stephen King? You do not want to be one of the guys in the car at the end. Sheer up.

Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 11:22am (Reply to #9608)
eclectic
Offline
-
Houston, TX
Joined: May 3, 2013
310
922

@silverwood/broker22

Sir, you articulate very well the sentiments I feel about the possibility of a doomsday scenario for the bugs. I believe I have arrived at the conclusion of saying 'eff! the rothchild bankers and the cartel members' who make life on this planet the misery and suffering they have created through funding wars and other tools of financial manipulation through hedgemony. As another poster stated, I may not receive the fruits and benefits of my honest money, but I'll be cheering from above if it's not in my lifetime. Sometimes we have to fight the battles we know we may well lose. I say, 'from my cold dead hands'. Yes, they are trying to totally demoralize us and destroy us financially. I would refer you to the following site for a potentially more optimistic view, especially the writings in his archives last month.

https://averybgoodman.com/myblog/

Finally, there is this slightly more optimistic EW interpretation, from guy named 'Sam' on a private blog.

I posted earlier that extreme patience would be necessary. My hope is to be a survivor. If not I fought a good fight for intangibles that are worth more than any amount of money.



Sun, Dec 18, 2016 - 11:33am
brokerk22
Offline
Joined: Apr 12, 2012
975
4265

@electic

I understand you guys are EW technical folks. I am not huge fan of charts being predictors and the holy grail. That scenario is not much better and if prove even close to correct we might as well sell all metals go long the market. Something has to give.