The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Dec 14, 2016 - 4:06pm Solsson
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Solsson wrote: JNUG being

Solsson wrote:

JNUG being beaten up pretty bad, are you waiting for 5.50 Pining ?

5.37 holy smokes that was a massacre for sure ... I just bought a position and was stopped out with a quick -5% loss, jumping back in ...
Wed, Dec 14, 2016 - 4:25pm
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My friend, I'm not catching knives today

With quad witching Friday and the many other thoughts floating about, I've been well on the sidelines for quite some time, excepting a small scalp to the short side last week. I need to see price show signs of sticking or going sideways before I jump at JNUG, and I suspect that there will be some end of year portfolio rebalancing that might mean gold goes sideways while miners keep sliding. This would be my dream scenario actually... where JNUG would be then, I've no idea. Lower, I hope!

Wed, Dec 14, 2016 - 4:31pm
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GDXJ Weekly GDXJ plotted

GDXJ Weekly

GDXJ plotted against itself for the last four years. With a red coloured trendline thrown in for good measure.

I screenshot it a couple of hours ago .... 2 more handles gone since ..... already half way down to thirty from 34.xx where this chart shows it. End of year weakness is visible in three of the four past years prices shown in green.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Dec 14, 2016 - 6:03pm eclectic
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8-Yr

Correction an error. The next to last sentence should read: February, 2017 not April as stated in my post.

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 12:53am
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Considering Janet

Considering Janet Yellen raised rates yesterday, isn't that a good thing for Gold? So yesterdays action was a big misunderstanding and a gift for us

This thread is almost 4years old:

"Now I expect that interest rates will go negative before TPTB throw the towel into the PM ring. But that time is relatively close. It seems clear that the beginning of the next PM bull will be simultaneous with a rise in interest rates. Now if the Japanese screw with the JGB, (Kyle Bass post xmas interview) and manage to torpedo world bond markets, this will set a few big dominoes crashing against each other, and when it comes home to the dollar bonds they will start falling. But it doesn't have to be the Japanese that set it off. I do think however that bond yields are the key to the lock of our PM treasure box"

Negative rate firsts=
Rise in interest rates=
Bond yield rising=
Rising Gold&Silver prices=

Three thumbs up and we are waiting for the fourth!

This is inline with your recent posts eclectic, let the rates be negative here in Sweden but our spirits should be positive going into 2017!

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 6:41am
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Solsson

my pre-market shows we might see a 4- handle on JNUG, either at the open or at some point today... I'm guessing the HUI will open 164-166 area if this keeps up. So let's say gold gets sticky around here, and the bears don't break it down below an 1100 close, and we start churning sideways with gold closes between 1120-1140ish. Next few weeks see some year-end selling of miners. GDXJ looks to open around 31, further year-end selling (if it comes) could put it between 26-28 conceivably? So a JNUG number between 3 and 4 wouldn't be out of the question...

Just FYI I've noticed that there is an artificial dip in JNUG price every day centered around 10:00 eastern standard time US, +or- 5 minutes. I suspect it's due to internal rebalancing or something, but regardless of direction it's good for a 15-30 cent discount relative to normal price like clockwork, lasts only a minute or two but works 3 of 4 days. I've used it to enter then have a cushion then set tight stops so if price moves against me I can sell for no loss- it's gotten me out 4 times with no losses on this run down (thank goodness) so worth trying.

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 7:51am Solsson
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Musings About Janet by Slosson

Slosson, your post may be the most important of the year, as you outline all the fundamental drivers of long term gold prices currently in place. Now, back to A.M.'s drawing board in trying to divine those moving cyclical time windows!

I wanted to report that I had the privilege of talking with Argentus Maximus. His approach and demeanor was a breath of fresh air compared to most of the characters I found myself acquainted with in this business back during my days in London. I couldn't help but be impressed by the depth and breadth of his knowledge. His expertise eclipses all the technical analysis we conducted when that school was still in it's infancy. We made a lot of good calls, but we also got away with a lot because our methodologies were not subject to rigorous testing. I believe his work to be unique.

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 8:07am
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@Solsson: What I think is

@Solsson: What I think is required is a decoupling of existing correlations.

Bonds and gold are presently correlate for the recent "risk on" in which stocks did best. But gold needs to de-synchronize from bonds. The next swing will be "risk off", from stocks to bonds presumably, and gold needs to begin picking up a bid there so that during each swing/counter swing gold outperforms the other two asset classes slightly and sets up a breakout in relative performance charts.

If the correlations are detected as having changed, the arbitrage algos will follow and that would funnel carry trade money flow in changed directions.

So this downthrust by bears represents the first retest of the end of year 2015 lows. This retest calibrates the following upswing. The higher the price that arises from, the better it will grow.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 8:14am
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Silver cartel

So are the price-fixing fines just another cost of doing lucrative business? Does it just carry on? You'd think by silver's price action, that the riggers are just flaunting their intention to double down. Sheesh.

I was watching platinum fall and fall over the last year; at one time it was $300 lower than gold, now the gap has closed to about $210. Of course it had to close; platinum risked becoming cheaper than palladium. Catherine Austin Fitts said in an interview not so long back, that the market manipulators have gotten themselves into a terrible mess; when everything is rigged, the real value is not known any more for anything, even the riggers lose the plot.

Is this US stock market rise on volume? Can JPM and GS create volume by selling one share back and forth between themselves, a trillion times a day?

We are so far down the rabbit hole, I'm starting to wish I never looked down it in the first place.

Late edit: Silver at 16.08. $15 here we come. Maybe $10 by Christmas. What does reality have to do with these markets any more.

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 8:30am
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In Euro gold is almost

In Euro gold is almost unchanged.

In GBP gold only slightly down.

But silver is taking tough selling pressure, seemingly across currencies.

Today is a potential big reversal day for GSR. Silver over gold in January maybe. We'll see.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 9:11am
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Arbitrage

kentucky
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 9:20am
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It's crazy out there, and not just in PMs

The volatility in currencies has been breathtaking, I'm not sure how some large traders or funds didn't get caught on the wrong side of some of these moves. As recently as November 9, just 6 weeks ago, USD/JPY ran stops overnight to as low as 101.17. Today it just topped 118.68. That is a monster 17% move, in a major foundational currency pair, in just 6 weeks... might be enough to blow up a few levered funds. Margin calls anyone?

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 10:03am
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At this point

everyone here should be routing for the dollar to go higher from and much higher. We should all for this to happen as quick as possible. The sooner the dollar crushes all other currencies the sooner this is over.

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 10:08am
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@ Pining & Argentus

to tie up both your posts, yeah, gold in Yen continues to be relatively flat, as it has been for 5 years now. Even silver to some extent.

I know this Yen angle has been covered so many times before, but it continues to be an absurdity.

Following the logic through, we'll go sub $1000 gold, at around 133 yen to the dollar. That's assuming a straight line relationship; but that relationship has been in place now for almost 6 years, and has held firm so far, and up to 124 Yen:USD.

Luckily, according to your chart, the dollar:yen has finally settled /(sarc).

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 10:09am eclectic
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eclectic wrote: Slosson, your

eclectic wrote:

Slosson, your post may be the most important of the year ...

Ah Tx, you make me blush and btw it's Solsson

Pining, I am looking for 3.93ish that is a final frontier for this downmove? Thank you for the tip .

Of course this is only a small portion of my portfolio.

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 10:19am
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It just occurred to me that

It just occurred to me that what I said in the above post can be misconstrued!

What I mean is at the end of January I suspect gold may stop outperforming silver, but for a couple of weeks, maybe about four, it looks (at the moment to me) like silver might be starting to do some catching up with gold's recent weakness, i.e. taking a turn in the role as the weaker of the pair of PMs.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 3:16pm argentus maximus
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AM

Great. We go down for the next month. Buy low sell high.

Gann global, Ski, Jimmy Rogers, TDG, Hurst, Randomowski, D-square, Rambus, Hunt, Hoye, Capt. Hook, Frailey, and every technician worth his salt is bearish.

There is nothing to stop this from sub 1000 and 12 silver. Bring it on

kentucky
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 3:17pm argentus maximus
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(No subject)

kentucky
Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 4:52pm
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Footsie now above 7000

Dammit. It is confirming the move in the DOW.

Or is it just JPM and GS selling a second share back and forth a trillion times a day, this time in London?

Thu, Dec 15, 2016 - 6:01pm kentucky
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kentucky wrote:..... There is

kentucky wrote:
..... There is nothing to stop this from sub 1000 and 12 silver. Bring it on

There is strong support which I marked on a recent chart. If the bears can't break that, 2016 plots a higher low retesting the 2015 lows. The decline is fast, and close to this support already - which is indeed bearish.

BUT ..... we are above that support. Above is above. And the favourable time for putting on bear trades with good prospect of success is almost over. Late bears are likely to experience financial pain getting out! Experienced bears will know not to push the odds taking on risk into fading liquidity. This down pulse has days left, not weeks, imo.

Let's see how the week goes, only one day left, and we will see whether I remain short term bearish next week. I want to see how far the bears can get it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets