The volatility in currencies has been breathtaking, I'm not sure how some large traders or funds didn't get caught on the wrong side of some of these moves. As recently as November 9, just 6 weeks ago, USD/JPY ran stops overnight to as low as 101.17. Today it just topped 118.68. That is a monster 17% move, in a major foundational currency pair, in just 6 weeks... might be enough to blow up a few levered funds. Margin calls anyone?
everyone here should be routing for the dollar to go higher from and much higher. We should all for this to happen as quick as possible. The sooner the dollar crushes all other currencies the sooner this is over.
to tie up both your posts, yeah, gold in Yen continues to be relatively flat, as it has been for 5 years now. Even silver to some extent.
I know this Yen angle has been covered so many times before, but it continues to be an absurdity.
Following the logic through, we'll go sub $1000 gold, at around 133 yen to the dollar. That's assuming a straight line relationship; but that relationship has been in place now for almost 6 years, and has held firm so far, and up to 124 Yen:USD.
Luckily, according to your chart, the dollar:yen has finally settled /(sarc).
eclectic wrote: Slosson, your post may be the most important of the year ...
Slosson, your post may be the most important of the year ...
Ah Tx, you make me blush and btw it's Solsson
Pining, I am looking for 3.93ish that is a final frontier for this downmove? Thank you for the tip .
Of course this is only a small portion of my portfolio.
It just occurred to me that what I said in the above post can be misconstrued!
What I mean is at the end of January I suspect gold may stop outperforming silver, but for a couple of weeks, maybe about four, it looks (at the moment to me) like silver might be starting to do some catching up with gold's recent weakness, i.e. taking a turn in the role as the weaker of the pair of PMs.
Great. We go down for the next month. Buy low sell high.
Gann global, Ski, Jimmy Rogers, TDG, Hurst, Randomowski, D-square, Rambus, Hunt, Hoye, Capt. Hook, Frailey, and every technician worth his salt is bearish.
There is nothing to stop this from sub 1000 and 12 silver. Bring it on
Dammit. It is confirming the move in the DOW.
Or is it just JPM and GS selling a second share back and forth a trillion times a day, this time in London?
kentucky wrote: ..... There is nothing to stop this from sub 1000 and 12 silver. Bring it on
There is strong support which I marked on a recent chart. If the bears can't break that, 2016 plots a higher low retesting the 2015 lows. The decline is fast, and close to this support already - which is indeed bearish.
BUT ..... we are above that support. Above is above. And the favourable time for putting on bear trades with good prospect of success is almost over. Late bears are likely to experience financial pain getting out! Experienced bears will know not to push the odds taking on risk into fading liquidity. This down pulse has days left, not weeks, imo.
Let's see how the week goes, only one day left, and we will see whether I remain short term bearish next week. I want to see how far the bears can get it.
Here's another look at the situation.
Price just touched the old R1 line today (Thursday). Next month there is super strong support at 1106.8-1107.60. I mention this range, absurd as it may sound, because the July top was within several ticks of the cross of the lines shown. The lines have worked pretty well to define the monthly ranges of prices after the high. The big 2P line doesn't hurt, either. FWIW.
I believe that the monthly closes must stay above the old r1 line at this point if gold is to find a bottom above last year's low.
These markets have lost all sense of value.
Well, at 103, I guess the longtime formidable resistance at 100, has now been comprehensively pierced.
Does it now have a clear run to 120?
argentus maximus wrote: ... gold needs to begin picking up a bid there ...
I looked at HUI, GDXJ, SILJ and SLV this morning and all of them look really strong. A possible third wave coming in 2017:
I bought a small position in JNUG today, just for the fun of it have a nice weekend folks.
Welcome back Pete, what a week. Hahaha Crimex Gold monthly, yes I agree I am upset when real assets gets hammered and pumped up fake stockmarkets keeps on going, 7years now without a real correction, disgusting stuff !
Wow! Ronnie is as bearish as you can get. If you believe what he is saying then making money with bearish gold/silver etf's is very low risk. My problem with this bearish scenario is so is everyone else! Will everyone make a killing playing the downside to PMs?
argentus maximus wrote: This down pulse has days left, not weeks, imo.
This down pulse has days left, not weeks, imo.
Agree, I think it will turn around next week. These EW experts like Ronnie Fatal has a overly bullish/bearish view during trendshifts. We are very late in the correction, 3-4months now and a final washout lately. At the same time we got a parabolic rise in stocks. This has to turn around soon and looking at last two seasons that has been the case. Miners might correct a little bit longer into mid Jan or 20th when Trump heads into office.
If we keep it simple, looking at the latest developments in gold will it break upwards or downwards:
Remember Argentus BP chart from 61.8 years ago, in 1954 the company changed name from Anglo-Iranian Oil Company to British Petroleum. The chart showed a breakout gap to the upside, I dont know ... what do you think, will the EW be correct ? Next week is key imo.
If that Elliott Wave guy is even half right we are totally fucked. Then its time to throw your silver and gold out the window. No point even posting here then. Turd's site would be shut down. He is talking about 2 years plus grinding in low teens for silver and 900-1100 in gold. 50% of miners would be toast. In short it would time to throw in the towel. They win we lose period!
Ill have to admit watching an EW video like that scares the abosolute shit out of me and tests my resolve. In the face of obvious positive fundamentals the paper price does not and will not react because of egregious interferance. It defintately could happen that way and I constantly worry about this possibility. I will lose tremendous wealth, credibility, and suffer great stress in addition to what I have already suffered. If we do move lower and dollar higher it will have to be quick and a quick recovery. If not then yes I think this Ronnie Fataly could be correct unfortunately. If it is long and drawn out then we are in a hopeless scenario for our positions for the most part because even 2 more years of this would destroy most. Only the ones getting in at the bottom and physical holders would benefit. Truly a worst case scenario.
Have you seen the movie "The Mist" written by Stephen King? You do not want to be one of the guys in the car at the end. Sheer up.
Sir, you articulate very well the sentiments I feel about the possibility of a doomsday scenario for the bugs. I believe I have arrived at the conclusion of saying 'eff! the rothchild bankers and the cartel members' who make life on this planet the misery and suffering they have created through funding wars and other tools of financial manipulation through hedgemony. As another poster stated, I may not receive the fruits and benefits of my honest money, but I'll be cheering from above if it's not in my lifetime. Sometimes we have to fight the battles we know we may well lose. I say, 'from my cold dead hands'. Yes, they are trying to totally demoralize us and destroy us financially. I would refer you to the following site for a potentially more optimistic view, especially the writings in his archives last month.
Finally, there is this slightly more optimistic EW interpretation, from guy named 'Sam' on a private blog.
I posted earlier that extreme patience would be necessary. My hope is to be a survivor. If not I fought a good fight for intangibles that are worth more than any amount of money.
I understand you guys are EW technical folks. I am not huge fan of charts being predictors and the holy grail. That scenario is not much better and if prove even close to correct we might as well sell all metals go long the market. Something has to give.