The setup for the big trade

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Sun, Sep 25, 2016 - 8:02am
brokerk22
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@AM

How about a simple yes or no? Is this what you possibly expect? Answering my question.

Sun, Sep 25, 2016 - 8:13am
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I'll add this. If the next

I'll add this. If the next downswing takes the form of a medium term sideways flag, and it could - the mega gold bull is on, Venezuela Weimar Germany, the whole nine yards. I won't underestimate the clowns in charge!

The rest of what I posted is perfectly clear.

"Yes" or "No" about something like markets over multi year periods .... you jest.

Remember I am long. This is a discussion about the rare moments when and where I might adjust my long term position.

If a high arrives where I expect a low, for example the market would be telling me to wait longer for the turn I expect. I would be crazy not to let the market adjust my opinion. It's a juggernaut and I am an ant in the highway.

Caution is good. Lows are opportunity. If you are a (long term) bull, should you look upon highs as opportunity? That's the real question and I can't answer it for you. I find it impossible to answer it for me! Best guesses, that all we have.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Sun, Sep 25, 2016 - 8:27am
brokerk22
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@AM

The chart you showed clearly shows gold going nowhere (except for a few hundred point rally) in short term into a new low under $1000 into mid 2018. It gave several variations of such. Ok if this a strong possibility in your opinion. If it is than we may never see new highs unless a "world changing event" occurs. Many reputable analysts are forecasting gol over $3000-$5000 in next five years. You are throwing up scenarios where goes frickin nowhere for another 2-3 years. These charts you are throwing up suggest the almighty dollar never falls. Come on support your position if you have one. I remember you also showing a chart a while back where silver never made it over $20 for several years. We just hit $21.50 not long ago.

Sun, Sep 25, 2016 - 1:39pm brokerk22
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brokerk22 wrote: ....  You

brokerk22 wrote:
.... You are throwing up scenarios where goes frickin nowhere for another 2-3 years. These charts you are throwing up suggest the almighty dollar never falls. Come on support your position if you have one. I remember you also showing a chart a while back where silver never made it over $20 for several years. We just hit $21.50 not long ago.

You have a selective way of looking at charts or reading my comments. I try to be very clear about short, medium and long term but you don't appear to appreciate this point.

OK so, let's take your quote above.

I will use a dollar chart since you can't seem to get out of the dollar mindset, though this is vital for seeing more of what is happening. note I said more, nobody has a crystal ball. We are all just varying degrees of blind when looking forwards.

So .. a gold dollar chart:

This has a percentage scale on the right side, which clearly shown that if you bought gold in 2010 and held (a stacker, correct?) until now you got exactly no return on your money. All the worry none of the gain. So that os six years of a big zero gain for gold and zero fall for the dollar you hate so much.

The trick is in the timing. Buy at B and you lost bigtime. Buy at C and you got nothing. Buy at D and you are currently looking at a big gain, provided you sell before it turns back again. You can believe anything you choose, but it will do what it's going to do regardless of you and your little belief set.

So is six years long enough for accepting the dollar takes longer to fall than you "want it to take"? It's taken that long already! I could have chosen the 1970-80s where it went sideways or down (depending on when you bought) for 21 years!

Time it or price it. Both are good. Catch the swings. And if you tried that and can't do it - don't slag off people who have tried and made a better fist of the job, even though they are nor perfect when viewed through retrospection. I sense rightly or wrongly a big vibe of negativity in your posts. This is probably belief based, and a result of markets not behaving according to what you believe they should do.

What I tell you is this - don't believe anything - it'd the market - you can go long or go short and are not married to any side. You can get out and lose 100% of the stress. Stress may cost you more years lost through shortened lifespan than money gained can ever claw back.

And get off my back. I criticize none but put out there information unavailable in the public domain. YOU "could always" open a thread and post YOUR outlook several times a week for five years and see what happens. Nobody is stopping you showing how clever you are in the best way possible.

For everybody else: high G-V levels recede somewhat over the coming days.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Sun, Sep 25, 2016 - 5:31pm
kentucky
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broker

I have had the same feeling about AM in the past. He does not speak like those from the US trained in sound bites. It is frustrating to comprehend coming from that mind set. He is paranoid with justification and speaks in riddles to obfuscate those wishing to plagiarize his work. Continue reading and you will gain valuable information as there are times when you will experience clarity as much as anyone can give you in the markets. His GV peak is a top. So expect sideways to down for now. That is as clear as it gets.

When I was angry and frustrated I had too much at risk and was afraid.

kentucky
Mon, Sep 26, 2016 - 5:51am
Solsson
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I rather not to comment on

I rather not to comment on broker22's comments, we will end up with a Viking ax, b-movies from the 50's and such. We have had that weird cycle recently, so lets not go there.

There are many analysts out there supporting an idea of a B wave (are we at the top?) and a final wave C down to new lows. I do not know why so many guldbugs gets offended when you point that out, I've been banned from two forums for stating that we might end up at a new low in gold!? If you are able to time the B reasonable well and the following C you are in a sweetspot of a century imo.

However me thinks we are not at the B top yet. Just looking at a random miner, we still got at least 3 waves left in this bull rally between two lows. A comfort blanket for broker:

5 minor waves up in six months, creating major wave 1 and then a three month correction a-b-c creating major wave 2. We are waiting for major wave 3, 4 and 5 to end this bull.

Tue, Sep 27, 2016 - 2:39pm Solsson
Erewhon888b
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(888) 888-8888 This is the

(888) 888-8888

This is the most coveted US-based phone number for the Chinese because the number 8 is considered very lucky. In China a phone number containing all 8's was sold for $270,723 USD

https://chineseppl.blogspot.co.uk/2011/03/play-on-words-chinese-lucky-and-unlucky.html

Tue, Sep 27, 2016 - 4:54pm
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Everybody likes a good

Everybody likes a good correlation analogue. We all want "roadmaps".

I would never pin my hopes, ego or money blindly on an analog just because it has a good correlation. That's a mistake. Being led rather than using a tested and proven system. Usually what happens is that the wiggles follow the analog until a certain inflection arrives and then they cruse off in the opposite direction without warning.

Actually one thing I have done is spend a very long time attempting to figure out when this break with an analog will occur, and I have my own ideas about this, and how good or bad I am at "seeing it coming". But there are stop loss orders, which these work fine too to provide error insurance, and are a required tool.

So I posted BP from the 1970s a few posts ago. Did everybody see what it resembles? If not yet, here is the same chart once again, but this time I have overlaid the past 7-8 years of Spot Gold on top in red.

So ... Spot Gold last 5-6 years vs BP about 61 years ago:

So it's not ideal. The timescale is stretched on one to make it match the other. BP put in a deeper low, then a higher low, whereas gold put in a deep low followed by a lower low. All differences.

But there are substantial similarities too that intrigue. Question: was the resumption of the bull for BP started by the break of that downtrend, or was it simply the passage of time? Because gold has also broken a downtrend (shown), hut gold has that unfortunate lower low whereas BP did not when the downtrend was taken out. BP had a tentative uptrend forming prior to it's breakout, a tentative uptrend which gold has yet to construct. Well times are different now, but has this requirement changed or not? We all hold a private view on that I suppose.

So back to the analog chart:

Breaking the downtrend, check.

Higher low, not checked yet.

Passage of time? Not addressed in this chart, but the correlated wiggles (as far as the correlation goes) do seem to suggest an interesting time coming relatively soon whereby bears have a last great "heave".

Other trigger? Who knows!

Meanwhile it's election year and the various markets are in holding patterns at one side or another of their two and-or four year ranges for just a little longer. I think that probably merits a new article in the AM blog.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Wed, Sep 28, 2016 - 7:00am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Something like this, passing

Something like this, passing of a little bit more time:

Thu, Sep 29, 2016 - 2:27am
Pete
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AG at a low?

Hi. I've been away on vacation.

Looks like gold and silver are finding support so far in all the right places. In gold there is also the Major pivot 0-4 line, a very strong line, on the $gold chart a little below the current price action in case it goes a bit lower. The gold correction has gotten nowhere near the Major ML, but rather chopped sideways to slightly down in the upper half of the Major fork. This kind of price action is usually prelude to a break out to new highs and a strong move; and the longer it takes the higher it can go.

The chart of AG interests me, as I think we may have set a major pivot low on Tuesday. Price went to wl#1, closing just below it after testing it earlier, forming a perfect 5 min-0 pivot line (a gap counts as a pivot). If the daily reversal signal continues and we get a turn higher now (after the 5 min-3 pivots down), odds are very good we get a retracement back to the zoomed m3 ml from the top. This line is roughly near 15. From there, we have to see what might happen next. (Note: this pattern of retracement back to the ml after wl#1 reached happened in ES after it "mini-crashed".)

Call prices are reasonable for AG with good upside potential over the next few months.

Also, ES and YM put in bullish signals on Tuesday, from different support lines (their forms are different), thus reinforcing good potential for new highs.

Thu, Sep 29, 2016 - 6:08am Pete
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Welcome back Pete and Tx for

Welcome back Pete and Tx for the chart. I agree, silver is looking bullish, ready for a breakout. Give the zig-zag another week or 2 and we are of to the races. That is also what AM told us a couple of weeks ago, a buying opportunity mid October.

The same compression as in the gold chart above. A continuation formation in a bullish trend.

(oups I've forgotten the b-c in the correction, sorry for that)

Thu, Sep 29, 2016 - 9:12am
Solsson
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Ok, one last post before I

Ok, one last post before I enter into Ryder Cup mode. I've had plenty of time this week being at home with a bad cold.

First I have noticed that the Swedish Golden Clock has a year long pulse from Tick to Tack:
Will we get a Tacky Tac with a new ATH for Gold in SEK at year end?

Second, Greg Mannarino is also on the Silvery-train:

Video unavailable

and Third hahaha 888 keeps coming up, a very popular number on the internet:

Yes I am preparing for a life in the jetset world looking at a villa in Dubai this was a commercial.

Thu, Sep 29, 2016 - 6:14pm
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I am of the opinion that the

I am of the opinion that the rules of the game have changed, even though we have not been notified.

Maybe this is a good time to listen to the Carmen Reinhart interview from McAlvany Financial of two weeks ago - if you haven't caught it already of course:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUjLtQv0Xdw

And while our notification from BIS, IMF, ECB, FedRes, BOE, BOJ and the rest of the Central Bank buddy club about their plans for how our money can serve them best may have got "lost in the mail" here is a thought that might illuminate our darkness:

It's two years since Bill Gross left PIMCO. So .... how far out on the yield curve was he looking at when he made his decision? We now have two years of hindsight to apply in parsing for ourselves what he thought he saw coming for bonds back in September 2014.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Fri, Sep 30, 2016 - 12:31pm
Safety Dan
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A Little Off Subject.. But Interesting

From a friend..

$GVZ volatility index for gold, went on a sell signal last Friday, playing out

Sun, Oct 2, 2016 - 1:24pm
silver66
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History repeating ?

Silver66, There is incredible opportunity in adversity.

Sun, Oct 2, 2016 - 1:25pm
silver66
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History repeating ?

duplicate......sorry

silver66

Silver66, There is incredible opportunity in adversity.

Mon, Oct 3, 2016 - 10:34am
Pete
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important test of support coming up

While Dec Gold closed Friday beneath the major pivot trend line (the 0-4), that didn't happen in the daily continuation chart below ("$gold"). A test of that line appears imminent at about 1312.70 today. If there is to be a steep decline on a break, the upsloping ML (touching P4) may be the target for a significant low. Some interesting statistics online show an average 4% decline in gold prices during October of an election year in the US (over 8 cycles I think), measuring from 10/1 to 10/31. The ML mentioned is about that far down.

(Note: the uppermost green horizontal is the 38.2%R level of the 0-5 movement.)

Tue, Oct 4, 2016 - 12:12pm
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Bill Gross of Janus Capital

Bill Gross of Janus Capital Group, and ex-PIMCO Global Bonds Fund Manager, posted his monthly blog on the subject of Central Bankers being Martingale system gamblers, and how confidence (which is eroding) is required for them to up the stakes and continue their martingale strategies.

It's always an interesting read: https://www.janus.com/insights/bill-gross-investment-outlook

And for more information about martingale traders, anti-martingales, and bank solvency here is my own blog article posted January 2014 where I confronted the same subject in my own way:

https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rnp-102-free.html

You see .... trust is vanishing .... and the people who are out on a limb at the top are well aware of this. I once again will say that in my opinion they are becoming desperate and ready to make previously unacceptable choices as to what their next actions will be. As it happens, a cycle analyst knows not what they will do, but can have a reasonably idea of what it's effect will be regardless of their choice.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Tue, Oct 4, 2016 - 12:46pm
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Great Read

Thank you for that link AM. The central bankers are in dangerous I chartered waters. It appears to me that the US fed is playing poker the best out of all the CBs. If they announce a QE program Bitcoin and the Metals should soar. However, that time maybe further away the. We all had hoped

Tue, Oct 4, 2016 - 2:04pm
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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My silveranalysis went down

My silveranalysis went down the toilet, nevertheless I added to my position in my silverminers today. We are close to strong support imo. What a smack in silver today, holy macaroni.

I am all in now, waiting for the next leg up.