The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Apr 8, 2016 - 12:00am
Pete
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@AM

What plugin is required for a TurdTalk Chat?

Fri, Apr 8, 2016 - 12:34am
Pete
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gold 5m lookback

There was no way to predict the corrective price action that I know of. But what happened illustrates the general concept of being watchful for a 5 pivot pattern inside the r1 line. What constitutes 5 pivots is often subjective and uncertain, but this case was very clear, both in pivot size and structure.


Fri, Apr 8, 2016 - 1:21am
Pete
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Another correction/buy op

Again, using the reaction line tech to spot better retracement opportunities for buys. Buy the dip in the third wave (there is still room to the r1 line on the daily for continued rally). Look for oversold on appropriate time frame (won't be oversold on 60m chart). I think we can say there would be 5 pivots if RL is reached.

Fri, Apr 8, 2016 - 10:55am
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Hat tip to Mish for this

Hat tip to Mish for this story:

Ukraine About to Break Apart! Transcarpathia Region “Demands” Autonomy From Kiev

The date of the vote is the recent G-V day posted in Setup For The Big Trade.

At time of typing this , the western media have not given coverage to this story. Wait and see.

.

They are however covering the (also G-V synchronized) Netherlands story:

Netherlands rejects EU-Ukraine partnership deal

.

Today is the first following day of importance, with a multi day G-V high lasting from a peak Friday until the next peak in the middle of next week.

.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Apr 8, 2016 - 11:05am (Reply to #8912)
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Pete wrote: What plugin is

Pete wrote:
What plugin is required for a TurdTalk Chat?

I'm not sure. But we could use Skype or Google Hangout.
Drop me an email to: baitboat_dude[at]yahoo[dot]com

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Apr 8, 2016 - 8:34pm
blue pill dreaming
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Pete an update to earlier chart

An EW suggestion and possible cycle count.

both are showing the current correction indicates underlying strength.

Until proven wrong of course.

Sat, Apr 9, 2016 - 5:11pm
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Read the first line of the

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Apr 10, 2016 - 8:25am
Solsson
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Hold on to your junior miners

Hold on to your junior miners for a while:

PLAN A= FAILED ! Due to greed, I bought the best juniors out there, but I sold them too early and jumped into high leverage short etf, the Dust, and lost 20% of my profit in less than three weeks

PLAN B= So far so GOOD. Moved into high risk pennie stox that had great potential. Large properties, good management, well funded and unbelievable undervalued, down more than -90% since the top.

PLAN C= Stop trading, this is not an option, not today.

Sun, Apr 10, 2016 - 1:45pm
Pete
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I hear you blue pill

There is underlying strength. I just checked the latest CoT and both sides are upping the ante. AR tech says prices should make the r1 line at a minimum (or the budding rally is actually weak and not strong). With that in mind, I favor a short term (at least) bullish stance but I've been unable to get low-risk long due to many factors outside my control (I'm not a day trader though part of me would like to be; I have other obligations that are far more important to many others). I just discovered the little chart fact below that the committed bulls who keep buying this market on dips are dancing to (some consciously, I believe). It's that small outside sliding parallel on the daily that has nailed the daily low of the last two trading sessions [I meant to say "within 2 ticks" on the chart--a typo]. I may be too late to use it, but I'd like to buy at 1238.1 (the osh value for Monday) and sell/maybe reverse at the r1 line--with willingness to get back long on a thrust over the r1 value. My guess is that's a $20 trade (1238 to r1) within 3 days. A lot of buying pressure has been building that could give us a very strong middle-of-the-third type of thrust that could take price over r1 and on toward r2, with 1300+ in sight.

Mon, Apr 11, 2016 - 8:06am (Reply to #8903)
Solsson
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argentus maximus wrote: The

argentus maximus wrote:

The area at 100 requires more trading by GLD in my opinion. This may be soon as a medium term outcome, but if not visited during 2016 it may alternatively materialize in the longer term at the next business cycle lows for GLD.

Down into midsummer solstice or we wait until next year ?

argentus maximus wrote:

And gold so far has come through unscathed. Next and more likely time for an end to the weekly consolidation is between Friday at the close and then next Wednesday 13th with probability of the two being Wednesday. I suspect gold will wake up Wednesday.

Hmmm, wake up or down ... silver is happy today, but for how long? Miners is moving up predicting the move for Gold?

I can not sell my explorers, too much going on at the moment that could drive the price into the stratosphere.

Overbought on a monthly chart, not so much on a weekly. I am tempted to say up from here ...

Tue, Apr 12, 2016 - 1:01am
Pete
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ES short term update

Tue, Apr 12, 2016 - 1:06am
Pete
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Gold short term

Tue, Apr 12, 2016 - 4:06pm
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The publicity for the

The publicity for the current/recent medum term gold bull swing has now entered the mainstream media full coverage.

My take on this is that the miners have been selling gold and silver like mad to regain badly needed capital, and the banks are spinning the contractual future deliveries up x 50 to 100 into leveraged supply.

But the open interest created by all this selling of gold has not driven gold back down in any substantial way. We only have a 4 week consolidation so far. Therefore the demand expressed by bulls is of a tougher kind, less easily stampeded by thin trading hours selling.

Hence the requirement for the establishment to attract fresh buyers who would be weak, over-leveraged and easy to push into full flight by bear attacks.

Usually I can pinpoint some period during mid month when the action will arrive, and I am expecting that this month. However as well as that, I think we will see an advance bear's test of the gold market tomorrow, 13th April.

If this is attempted by the bears, the trading volume will make such an attempt clear for us to see, and the price difference during any elevated volume give indication as to the power or lack of it on the bears' side.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Apr 12, 2016 - 7:21pm (Reply to #8915)
banman17
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G-V peaks

I don't know how you construct your algorithm for G-V peaks, but I'd say it's spot on and pure genius in terms of how it predicts the future. If it wasn't for giving away how it works if you'd patent it, I'd say to patent it. Thanks for sharing all the great timing dates with this keen algorithm you developed. It still amazes me how it predicts what will happen in the near future though.

Wed, Apr 13, 2016 - 4:04am (Reply to #8925)
Solsson
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banman17 wrote: I don't know

banman17 wrote:

I don't know how you construct your algorithm for G-V peaks, but I'd say it's spot on and pure genius in terms of how it predicts the future. If it wasn't for giving away how it works if you'd patent it, I'd say to patent it. Thanks for sharing all the great timing dates with this keen algorithm you developed. It still amazes me how it predicts what will happen in the near future though.

Yepp, just last week:

https://www.sydsvenskan.se/

  • Osama Krayem from Malmö, Sweden's third largest city, part of IS elit.
  • Explosion in an Arabic/Muslim school last weekend.
  • A man shot to death on Monday, not registered for any crime before.
  • Man almost stabbed to death at 3 pm yesterday.

The globalist's in Sweden is working overtime to push things in their way, scary shit !

Wed, Apr 13, 2016 - 8:50am
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I drift back to Zen-like self

I drift back to Zen-like self analysis from time to time.

And the non traders find it hard to see what this is all about. They await the magic tip or trading system signal (both of which are handing leadership of self to another).

And yet, if you take the time to read autobiographical (as opposed to 3rd party reports) thoughts of the awesome traders and investors of any era, they constantly talk about balance, ego, self and calmness under stress and stimuli from outside in the market or world at large.

Even the Whipsaw Song which I linked a few days ago in the IWWTI thread contains the line:

"What do we do with a hot news flash, honey … .
We stash that flash right in the trash ...."

This song came from a trading giant, Ed Seykota. I mentioned him here in past posts. How about if I mention he made 250,000% profit over 16 years? So if he write a trading song, it might be worth a listen maybe. And he plays banjo too.

So in the light of the above I saw today that Dr Eric Berg posted a YT video clip about stress, and andrenalin which just happens to provide newcomers to this with the connection route of another of the internal strings and triggers we have and I sometimes mention here.

Hidden Environmental Stressors

Now when andrenalin hits following stimuli either seen, or heard or remembered, the body sends blood flow to the limbs, (preparation for immediate fight or flight) and in order to do this it reduces blood supply to the brain. Yes, when you get triggered your ability to think decreases physically. Your thinking parts of your brain shut down. Really! And that would be at about the same time you are about to place or close a trade. It's worth considering the implications of that for a moment.

There are plenty of other "strings" - lots more in everybody - but we learn step by step how to see them and pick them apart. You know your hot buttons already. Call these your cold buttons, a far less visible internal reactive sequence of similar type. What Dr Berg said in that video about andrenal triggers matters a lot.

In case you didn't know there was a song about trading which was written by a market wizard, here's the link to that. I hope you like bluegrass!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LiE1VgWdcQM

Ed also wrote a recent book called "Govopoly" if you have an interest in another thesis of his that takes more than a banjo and 3 minutes to explain.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Apr 13, 2016 - 5:18pm
Nick Elway
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On this scale the silver

On this scale the silver 18.33 line looks interesting:

Wed, Apr 13, 2016 - 6:15pm
Pete
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ES 60m

Note re gold. Hit the daily chart r1 line and could not close over it after getting above. Today a sell off...

Wed, Apr 13, 2016 - 6:32pm (Reply to #8928)
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Nick Elway wrote:On this

Nick Elway wrote:

On this scale the silver 18.33 line looks interesting

It'll likely produce a sell fest when touched.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Inflection news (13 April) received so far seems to be quite mild in tone and volume:

  • The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirms that the Zika virus causes severe birth defects including microcephaly.
  • Police in Jordan shut HQ of the Muslim Brotherhood in Amman .
  • Peabody Energy, the US coal producer, largest private global producer, filed for bankruptcy
  • Urgent Central Banker-High Office Politico meetings for, as yet, unknown reasons
  • Russian fighter jets buzzing US naval ships
  • Goldman Sachs announces $5Bn settlement (12th April)
  • US leading stock indices, & UK FTSE100 arrive at upper edge of quarterly-half yearly trading range, not confirmed by secondary & mid cap indices, and this appears to be a sharp upmove for leading financials. (see point about CB meetings above possibly)
argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Apr 13, 2016 - 9:32pm
Pete
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June Gold 2hr bar chart

Here's a 2 hr chart because it's tough to fit in a 60m chart. Same result. Now what price action is probable according to the theory? Hint: R1 often defines the limit of a retracement.

My story: Couldn't catch it--had to be flying on Monday, all day. Even the flight was delayed, with no internet access. :-(

Expect a third wave down; those are the odds (the weakness may surprise us). Maybe there is a challenge of the high, like at 1280+ (left side of chart).

We had been considering a move toward the Major ML into late April, early May, or later...not calling for a bottom there necessarily (way too early), but suspecting one. Remember, the top above 1280 formed near a multi-month R1 line itself.

If there is a reversal higher soon with a daily close above Tuesday's top, this latest R1 is toast and away we go to the upside.

randomness