The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 7:24pm
SilverRunNW
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Well, at least you had this

Well, at least you had this part right :

Sure, .33/20.67 is around 70%

I would contend that this is all you have to really look at.

So on April 1, 1933, I went to my bank and gave them .67 for a St. Gaudens 1 ounce gold coin. Yeah, I'm that old.

But on January 30th, 1934, FDR signed "The United StatesGold Reserve Act". So I go into my bank and buy another St. Gaudens 1 ounce gold coin and it now cost me .

So, it cost me 70% more dollars to buy that same coin. Let's do the math:

.67 x .70 (.693275278) = .33

.67 + .33 =

Now, in this example, the banker and myself would have been thrown in jail because on April 5, 1933 FDR signed Executive Order 6102 and we could no longer buy that gold. But, given the fact that if I could have acquired that gold coin at the new price of , I would have had to fork over 70% more dollars to do it. Not 40% more dollars, which would have been:

.67 x .4 = .27

$20.67 + $8.27 = $28.94

Just the way I see things.

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 7:37pm
Byzantium
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@ silverNW

wasn't aimed at you SilverNW; every other author I have ever seen on the topic sees it your way too. Andy Hoffman describes for example, that many currencies have lost over a hundred percent of their purchasing power in the last few years. !

I was just noting, in poorly worded fashion, how collectively we see the same thing, and describe it so differently. Which doesn't matter so much, except for those things that we don't collectively see, and rely on others to describe to us. But surely of no consequence; we humans never misunderstand each other. ;-)

Wed, Feb 24, 2016 - 9:48pm
SilverRunNW
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@Byzantium

I was prompted by something that you wrote though, to respond to the topic of Roosevelt's devaluation against gold. Not directed at you, just prompted by your post.

Understood. It's all good!

Thu, Feb 25, 2016 - 7:03am SilverRunNW
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SilverRunNW wrote: Wait for

SilverRunNW wrote:

Wait for it. Wait for it.

No, I couldn't wait any longer, scaled in again after a naive, silly move yesterday, a gap up in GDX.

The wave structure in 60min Gold chart is pretty clear:

arrghh, my file storage is full, anyone know how to delete a file, yes I've tried the ? help and pushed delete but nothing happens.

Thu, Feb 25, 2016 - 12:04pm
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I have been busy for a few

I have been busy for a few days with govt agency documentation compliance requirements and with installation of refreshed and better data analysis equipment. This is necessary as what I do seems to have overtaken the capacity of my last generation of office technology! But this stuff just sucks up available time!

Great posts everybody and I like that chart Pete.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Gold ... intraweek (daily) breakout of the last inside range week. Temporary (prior to this week's close) higher weekly low and higher weekly high in place. = tentative but inconclusive short term bullish swing continuation hints. So far ... OK.

But .... time is ticking on this swing.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On another note .... didn't the G-V (posted in Setup at previous month's beginnings) catch this bullish sentiment change for gold really nicely! Lots of violence brewing, and it's not done . But the geo rises to meet the violence now, whatever covert projects are still in the pipeline spew out into public consciousness, and then they both subside after week 1 of March, with the significant daily peaks protruding from a somewhat lower weekly plateau after that.

The question is ... what happens to the precious metals markets after the next G-V peak? Ratios charts well worth our scrutiny are gold: silver and gold:platinum. Silver: platinum anyone? I'll be looking at that.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 6:43am argentus maximus
Solsson
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argentus maximus wrote: But

argentus maximus wrote:

But .... time is ticking on this swing.

Yepper, just look at the extended B-wave for both Gold and GDX. It's almost the same size as S.Rex homeland cliff Preikestolen:

https://www.virtualnorge.com/preikestolen/preikestolen.html

Scandinavia is beautiful, have a nice weekend !

Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 11:13am
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Well the end of month futures

Well the end of month futures rollover bus passed our stop overnight without much trouble for gold, though silver fell off at the market makers exacted their turnstile fee from non-delivery longs.

This has shoved the GSR into new highs, running 82.107 at last check. Which confirms that gold's worry valuation is giving it strength during this G-V peak (which carries into today by the way), a strength that silver has yet to generate.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 12:07pm
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Here are the gold silver

Here are the gold silver ratio charts that matter.

Above monthly spot GSR

Below is a longer term quarterly Comex continuation contract view.

The different delivery months and open interest dynamics cause the Comex to look a bit different from spot from time to time ....

That's a thirty one year period. You could put a rising trend over the highs after the year 2000 in the Comex version. Anyone want to buy a ticket for the trip to 100?

So what about all those stories to the effect that silver is really really scarce? I guess they need a little more time for the scarcity to manifest.

Looking at it the way I do, rather than fundamentally, next month looks interesting basis monthly charts, with a two following months possibility sort of attached to that view, but it's a big chart, we're already in interesting prices.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 5:14pm argentus maximus
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Calling a spade a spade

Looking at it the way I do, rather than fundamentally, next month looks interesting basis monthly charts, with a two following months possibility sort of attached to that view, but it's a big chart, we're already in interesting prices.

Let's just call a spade a spade. This thread isn't what it used to be. AM used to actually give directional potentials and more understandable information. It's now turned into an advertisement for Norm's gold trading service.

If it wasn't for Pete's awesome charts and explanations, I'm not sure there's any value left in this thread. Yes, there are other valuable posters here, including Solsson, but no one beat's Pete's charts!

Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 6:58pm SilverRunNW
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SilverRunNW wrote:.... Let's

SilverRunNW wrote:
.... Let's just call a spade a spade. This thread isn't what it used to be. AM used to actually give directional potentials and more understandable information.

You are absolutely right. This thread has changed. It changed when I started buying heavily several months ago, and I said so here. I bought gold, not silver at the time. Good or bad decision?

Now I comment about silver and platinum, but do not consider it quite right yet.

Nowadays I show the information visually rather than say it out loud and simple. This is my logical reaction and response for the people who copy it on other sites less than two hours after I post here, and who never give credit for where they got it from.

So ... did you notice anything in the lower chart in my above post? Just try looking. Look really hard and you might see something that is very clear. The scenario in the chart and the alt scenario in the text are both presented easy to see and at the same time intentionally hard for the lazy to skim and get. I'm not going to type it for copiers who then put their name on my work, nor for computer text reading web sampling algorithms, nor for market makers on the opposite side of my trades!

I owe you nothing whatsoever but nonetheless give you cost free material of a quality unavailable in the market for under two and a half grand a month. Stop whinging that I haven't spoon fed it to you! Use your eyes and intellect and see what is here. Still don't get it, try asking by PM!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 7:08pm
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Thanks for this Markedtofuture

It appears somebody else than myself is paying attention to Platinum!

CME Group Hiking Margins For Gold, Platinum Futures

Submitted by Markedtofuture on Main St TFMR. Hat Tip!

Did the Cabal need some help to get things rolling?

CME Group Hiking Margins For Gold, Platinum Futures

By Kitco News Friday February 26, 2016 08:18

(Kitco News) - CME Group is raising margins on gold futures for the second time this month, and this time the margin on platinum is rising as well.

The changes will go into effect as of the end of business on Friday, CME Group said in a notice late Thursday. The gold margin was also hiked two weeks ago.

The “initial” margin for speculators in the main 100-ounce gold contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange will rise to $4,950 from $4,675. The “maintenance” margin for existing accounts, as well as all hedge accounts, will increase to $4,500 from $4,250. The margin will also change for smaller-sized gold contracts.

The initial margin for speculators in the main Nymex platinum futures contract will rise to $2,310 from $2,090. The maintenance margin for existing accounts, plus all hedge accounts, will rise to $2,100 from $1,900.

Margins act as collateral for holders of positions in futures market, with traders putting up only a small percentage of the total value of a contract. In a notice late Thursday, CME Group said the increases were “per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”

A link to the full notice for the gold and platinum margins, as well as margin changes in a number of other markets, can be seen right here.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2016-02-26/CME-Group-Hiking-Margins-For-Gold-Platinum-Futures.html

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Feb 27, 2016 - 11:57am argentus maximus
SilverRunNW
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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

....response for the people who copy it on other sites less than two hours after I post here, and who never give credit for where they got it from.

I'm not going to type it for copiers who then put their name on my work, nor for computer text reading web sampling algorithms, nor for market makers on the opposite side of my trades!

That explains a lot and makes perfect sense. Thank you for taking the effort to respond.

Sun, Feb 28, 2016 - 4:09am
Solsson
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I would buy a ticket to GSR

I would buy a ticket to GSR 100 no problem, perhaps a +2year trip or in 6-7months, let the market decide.

My first ever attempt to draw a pitchfork ala Pete :-) we are in the upper trading channel by a wide margin.

Going into next week, I am extremely exited, I've followed the DUST like a hawk, my goal is to double my trading portfolio in a month. I bought in too early as usual, problems to control my greed demon. The foolish gap up in GDX was my, failed entry, revenge.

I don't know if a COT report at 427016 is significant for a major correction, but it do look bearish:

https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/gold-daily-COT-3.png

Finally Platina or as you call it Platinum, Tesla and batteries, meehh it aint the future. The future for cars is Fuel cells and those need alot of Platinum. Most analyst says silver is the thing to watch but maybe the answer is Platinum. I know there is a date for Pt in a near future.

Sun, Feb 28, 2016 - 12:52pm Solsson
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GSR

Solsson Nice chart and could not agree more with your strategy. Ran a Fork on DUST and definitely see why you are excited. That my friend looks like a real interesting trade. I wonder if gold cna bounce off 1160 as Pete suggests. It may drop more if that COT stay high.

Mon, Feb 29, 2016 - 8:00am
erewenguy
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Gold:Silver ratios

I had to dig way back into this thread for some speculation I had done earlier (post 6804 back in Dec 2014).

The text and chart from that post:

"There are also potentially repetitive patterns noted above, suggesting the G:S might go quite a bit higher that I can conceive of at the moment. Unfortunately, this would also correspond to a long-term undervaluing of silver - perhaps in the extended price consolidation / handle formation hypothesized by others ? All that being said, historical patterns are only good in hindsight. I guess I'll have to update this chart in 25 years to see where we just came from "

AM's chart shows the update on where the GS ratio is today. It might be simplistic of me to project a long-term GS ratio peaking at about 140, so I'd be happier just stopping at 100. I could see a double top forming there, and following a pullback, for the ratio to keep rising again. To me, this does not necessarily say that silver won't rise, but what we've been seeing of late is that gold is rising faster and pulling a more reluctant silver with it.

Mon, Feb 29, 2016 - 8:58am Pitchfork
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Pitchfork wrote:Solsson 

Pitchfork wrote:

Solsson Nice chart and could not agree more with your strategy. Ran a Fork on DUST and definitely see why you are excited. That my friend looks like a real interesting trade. I wonder if gold cna bounce off 1160 as Pete suggests. It may drop more if that COT stay high.

Thank you very much Pitchfork here is another chart that tells us Gold will have a weak month in March:

Mon, Feb 29, 2016 - 8:42pm
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@erewenguy: I remember when

@erewenguy: I remember when you posted that chart. Well spotted.

I would prefer if the GSR popped back under the breakout level - was it 80.70 I think that was it - but really it's already looking towards that old high in October 2008 at 88.20 (basis futures).

In spot the 2008 GSR high (no spike) was 83.46 which has already fallen February 29 2016 high of8 3.7340. What a large difference that is between the spot and Comex pricing! So we must be careful about building strategies based off that GC:SI high of Oct 2008.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Geopolitical_Violence extreme from now until 6th March, then it winds down for a week before peaking again 11 - 13 March.

Time for the schemes enacted during February to come to a climax I think. Which means volume will arrive in gold trading following the suitably appropriate news stories which appear. Today I read reports that Argentina has made agreements with it's last holdout creditors, Paul Singer et al, to the tune of 4600+ billion. I expect we'll see more of the like this week.

Other G-V signature type events from today: A new print newspaper launched in UK today to appeal to 30s to 50s, as Independent prepares to go out of print and online next month. And, sadly, a school shooting in Ohio. More mayhem in the pipeline no doubt. Also corporations will be getting shook up a bit too at such a time as this.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Feb 29, 2016 - 8:56pm
blue pill dreaming
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Suggestion for A setup for A big trade

I would like to offer this triangle as a potential setup for a big trade.

On a breakout after E i am looking for $1350 Gold.

This should end Gold's 1st intermediate cycle and COT should seem extreme. (for a Bull Market)

Happy for thoughts???

Tue, Mar 1, 2016 - 5:56am blue pill dreaming
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Suggestion...

That's how I'd be betting were I a trader.

Tue, Mar 1, 2016 - 9:40pm
Pete
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YMH6

An important test of the R1 line appears to lie ahead for the DJIA. A close under after meeting/exceeding is a sell signal. w.c = 162% w.a fib target is close by.