The setup for the big trade

11983 posts / 0 new
Last post
Fri, Feb 26, 2016 - 7:08pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3757
24877

Thanks for this Markedtofuture

It appears somebody else than myself is paying attention to Platinum!

CME Group Hiking Margins For Gold, Platinum Futures

Submitted by Markedtofuture on Main St TFMR. Hat Tip!

Did the Cabal need some help to get things rolling?

CME Group Hiking Margins For Gold, Platinum Futures

By Kitco News Friday February 26, 2016 08:18

(Kitco News) - CME Group is raising margins on gold futures for the second time this month, and this time the margin on platinum is rising as well.

The changes will go into effect as of the end of business on Friday, CME Group said in a notice late Thursday. The gold margin was also hiked two weeks ago.

The “initial” margin for speculators in the main 100-ounce gold contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange will rise to $4,950 from $4,675. The “maintenance” margin for existing accounts, as well as all hedge accounts, will increase to $4,500 from $4,250. The margin will also change for smaller-sized gold contracts.

The initial margin for speculators in the main Nymex platinum futures contract will rise to $2,310 from $2,090. The maintenance margin for existing accounts, plus all hedge accounts, will rise to $2,100 from $1,900.

Margins act as collateral for holders of positions in futures market, with traders putting up only a small percentage of the total value of a contract. In a notice late Thursday, CME Group said the increases were “per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”

A link to the full notice for the gold and platinum margins, as well as margin changes in a number of other markets, can be seen right here.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2016-02-26/CME-Group-Hiking-Margins-For-Gold-Platinum-Futures.html

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Feb 27, 2016 - 11:57am (Reply to #8751)
SilverRunNW
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
968
4241

argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

....response for the people who copy it on other sites less than two hours after I post here, and who never give credit for where they got it from.

I'm not going to type it for copiers who then put their name on my work, nor for computer text reading web sampling algorithms, nor for market makers on the opposite side of my trades!

That explains a lot and makes perfect sense. Thank you for taking the effort to respond.

Sun, Feb 28, 2016 - 4:09am
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1046
4068

I would buy a ticket to GSR

I would buy a ticket to GSR 100 no problem, perhaps a +2year trip or in 6-7months, let the market decide.

My first ever attempt to draw a pitchfork ala Pete :-) we are in the upper trading channel by a wide margin.

Going into next week, I am extremely exited, I've followed the DUST like a hawk, my goal is to double my trading portfolio in a month. I bought in too early as usual, problems to control my greed demon. The foolish gap up in GDX was my, failed entry, revenge.

I don't know if a COT report at 427016 is significant for a major correction, but it do look bearish:

https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/gold-daily-COT-3.png

Finally Platina or as you call it Platinum, Tesla and batteries, meehh it aint the future. The future for cars is Fuel cells and those need alot of Platinum. Most analyst says silver is the thing to watch but maybe the answer is Platinum. I know there is a date for Pt in a near future.

Sun, Feb 28, 2016 - 12:52pm (Reply to #8754)
Pitchfork
Offline
-
Pismo Beach
Joined: Feb 7, 2015
27
131

GSR

Solsson Nice chart and could not agree more with your strategy. Ran a Fork on DUST and definitely see why you are excited. That my friend looks like a real interesting trade. I wonder if gold cna bounce off 1160 as Pete suggests. It may drop more if that COT stay high.

Mon, Feb 29, 2016 - 8:00am
erewenguy
Offline
-
GA
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
1004
3671

Gold:Silver ratios

I had to dig way back into this thread for some speculation I had done earlier (post 6804 back in Dec 2014).

The text and chart from that post:

"There are also potentially repetitive patterns noted above, suggesting the G:S might go quite a bit higher that I can conceive of at the moment. Unfortunately, this would also correspond to a long-term undervaluing of silver - perhaps in the extended price consolidation / handle formation hypothesized by others ? All that being said, historical patterns are only good in hindsight. I guess I'll have to update this chart in 25 years to see where we just came from "

AM's chart shows the update on where the GS ratio is today. It might be simplistic of me to project a long-term GS ratio peaking at about 140, so I'd be happier just stopping at 100. I could see a double top forming there, and following a pullback, for the ratio to keep rising again. To me, this does not necessarily say that silver won't rise, but what we've been seeing of late is that gold is rising faster and pulling a more reluctant silver with it.

Mon, Feb 29, 2016 - 8:58am (Reply to #8755)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1046
4068

Pitchfork wrote:Solsson 

Pitchfork wrote:

Solsson Nice chart and could not agree more with your strategy. Ran a Fork on DUST and definitely see why you are excited. That my friend looks like a real interesting trade. I wonder if gold cna bounce off 1160 as Pete suggests. It may drop more if that COT stay high.

Thank you very much Pitchfork here is another chart that tells us Gold will have a weak month in March:

Mon, Feb 29, 2016 - 8:42pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3757
24877

@erewenguy: I remember when

@erewenguy: I remember when you posted that chart. Well spotted.

I would prefer if the GSR popped back under the breakout level - was it 80.70 I think that was it - but really it's already looking towards that old high in October 2008 at 88.20 (basis futures).

In spot the 2008 GSR high (no spike) was 83.46 which has already fallen February 29 2016 high of8 3.7340. What a large difference that is between the spot and Comex pricing! So we must be careful about building strategies based off that GC:SI high of Oct 2008.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Geopolitical_Violence extreme from now until 6th March, then it winds down for a week before peaking again 11 - 13 March.

Time for the schemes enacted during February to come to a climax I think. Which means volume will arrive in gold trading following the suitably appropriate news stories which appear. Today I read reports that Argentina has made agreements with it's last holdout creditors, Paul Singer et al, to the tune of 4600+ billion. I expect we'll see more of the like this week.

Other G-V signature type events from today: A new print newspaper launched in UK today to appeal to 30s to 50s, as Independent prepares to go out of print and online next month. And, sadly, a school shooting in Ohio. More mayhem in the pipeline no doubt. Also corporations will be getting shook up a bit too at such a time as this.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Feb 29, 2016 - 8:56pm
blue pill dreaming
Offline
-
Australia
Joined: Aug 12, 2013
46
197

Suggestion for A setup for A big trade

I would like to offer this triangle as a potential setup for a big trade.

On a breakout after E i am looking for $1350 Gold.

This should end Gold's 1st intermediate cycle and COT should seem extreme. (for a Bull Market)

Happy for thoughts???

Tue, Mar 1, 2016 - 5:56am (Reply to #8759)
eclectic
Offline
-
Houston, TX
Joined: May 3, 2013
311
925

Suggestion...

That's how I'd be betting were I a trader.

Tue, Mar 1, 2016 - 9:40pm
Pete
Offline
-
Fair Oaks, CA
Joined: Jun 24, 2011
1006
3618

YMH6

An important test of the R1 line appears to lie ahead for the DJIA. A close under after meeting/exceeding is a sell signal. w.c = 162% w.a fib target is close by.

Wed, Mar 2, 2016 - 2:15am
Pete
Offline
-
Fair Oaks, CA
Joined: Jun 24, 2011
1006
3618

ESH6

ES made a new low on Feb 11 whereas YM did not. This results in two reaction lines in ES to watch for a top. The important trend indicator is the price action (with closes) relative to R1, though prices might turn at/near R(z) and not reach R1. Perhaps we will see a pivot at both lines, at different times. Perhaps price will not reach either, though it is probable that at least one will be reached.

About the R1 line of ES relative to YM's: Let's say YM makes a top and turns down at its R1 in classic fashion. YM can still make a new high above that top (with continued high reliability of renewed downtrend) as long as there is no close higher than that top (what some would call a "failure at the high [to close higher]").

Thus, ES might yet make top at/near its R1 without invalidating an earlier turn in YM at/near its R1 line.

Take each index on its own merits.

Wed, Mar 2, 2016 - 11:37am
Pitchfork
Offline
-
Pismo Beach
Joined: Feb 7, 2015
27
131

ES/YM/GLD

Pete

It appears that we are getting to a very important convergence with the above indexes. If the Dow and S&P break to the downside Gold and Silver should move to the upside. Gold looks to be setting up in a bullish triangle pattern and although it could break to the downside and test your 1160 target it too could break to the upside. Copper is showing strength and that could bode well for SI. Do you still see GLD moving down before back up?

Wed, Mar 2, 2016 - 12:48pm
Pete
Offline
-
Fair Oaks, CA
Joined: Jun 24, 2011
1006
3618

June Gold Monthly and Weekly

The June Gold monthly chart makes me smile! If we are lucky enough to get a retracement back to the ML over the next two to three months, it would be an outstanding low-risk buying opportunity. I'd also watch the monthly 3p line for a retracement back to it. This is a chart screaming that this bear phase is over. And I agree with others here, I do not see five waves down from the 2011 top to create an Elliott W1 of a five wave (bearish) sequence. Meaning, I don't think we have witnessed the end of a W.A. I see a completion of W.C of an ABC correction. (It makes me happier, too.)

Watch the reaction lines over the year for unfolding trading ops if you are a trader. The lines are strong.

From the weekly chart pivot perspective, price still hasn't made the Babson R1 line, which still sits above the current high. The CoT is not encouraging. I would not expect an extending move higher right now, but the shorts will have a rough time getting the genie back in the bottle after some consolidation.

Something has fundamentally changed, and it's reflected in the price.

Wed, Mar 2, 2016 - 3:16pm (Reply to #8764)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1046
4068

Pete wrote:This is a chart

Pete wrote:

This is a chart screaming that this bear phase is over. Something has fundamentally changed, and it's reflected in the price.

Yes but our thread creator isn't overly bullish right now is he, that's worth paying attention to imo. I've got a dozen of emails from analysts pointing out the bullish pennant in gold, ready to explode to the upside. I am not so sure, this latest rally wasn't impulsive enough, It looks like another bear rally. Gold isn't ready to break out, we need a reformation of the debt before it's possible for gold to break out into a new bull. Stagflation isn't enough, we need great inflation as AM stated in a post earlier.

Complex structures crash in slow motion, we need a reformation of global debt and a possible deflation crash before the reformation, this is Mike Maloney thesis how this will play out and it aligns well with the Elliott Wave pattern supported by a couple of analysts that I have great respect for.

The three numbers that AM told us a couple of months ago puzzles me a bit, 104x, 102y and 97z. The 104x is Ok, that hurdle was passed in December. How about 102y, is it possible that we will get a new low soon, it doesn't fit my preferred Elliott count. We are in an ABC upmove, A is cleared we are waiting for a B corrective wave and the C wave has the potential to be something very special.

Thu, Mar 3, 2016 - 1:29am
Pete
Offline
-
Fair Oaks, CA
Joined: Jun 24, 2011
1006
3618

@Pitchfork and Solsson

Hello,

How frustrating that a carefully worded response to your questions and statements just went poof. Here is the abridged version:

Pitchfork, I expect the top is in or might be made on a thrust to the R1 line shown on the chart below. After that, I expect a decline toward the ML and/or the passed 3P line from the monthly tops. So GLD is near a top too. My long term bullishness will wane if prices do not find support near/at the ML for a low. (Note that two pivots formed on the 3P line as gold rallied to it, stalled, broke upside, quickly retraced back to it, etc. The 3P appears important too and may give some support.)

The "break" you are expecting might not come immediately after a YM/ES top. First, this top might be just w.A of an ABC for w2. (I agree with Daneric's counts if you need a reference.) But with a stock market panic later on, as w3 ripens, I expect gold to get into a w3 mode in the opposite direction, as you expect. First we need a P2 in gold, before we can get a W3 upside. We'll see.

Solsson, I hope the above clarifies that I am not immediately bullish on gold. But I do believe the decline from 2011 is over. No new lows in 2016. It may take some months for the P2 to work out. But there is plenty of time to consider what to do, if anything, if evidence points to a B wave per Daneric's gold count that should be followed by a C wave toward new lows like $500 an ounce. But I don't agree with the deflationist argument that somehow a dollar will become more valuable against gold as the debt pyramid collapses. The dollar is not backed by gold anymore. It's not "as good as gold" as they used to say pre-1934. It is based on "faith" alone (plus a big military budget, etc). The Comex price manipulation will fail as the physical runs out, I believe, in the financial panic I anticipate. If any gold is available for purchase at $800 or $500 an ounce, count me in. LOL

Thu, Mar 3, 2016 - 4:57am (Reply to #8766)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1046
4068

How bad is it going to get?

#Pete, thank you for your answer, I agree.

When the house of cards collapses perhaps physical gold is the only thing that will retain its value against all other asset classes. Look at 2008, everything went down, even miners was badly hurt.

Now the coming debt reformation might cause a similar event times 10. That's why AM is sitting on 70% physical gold compared to Silver. Physical gold will retain it's value, not paper-comex gold and miners. Then at the bottom you transfer your physical gold into paper again (miners, etf etc.). I do not think that fiat is the place to be, when the shit hits the fan so to speak.

Oh, I don't believe in $500, 61.8% retracement sits at $680 and AM mentioned 97z.

Is it possible with a new intervention by our friends at the FED mid March FOMC to break the strong supportline that Pete mentioned?

Thu, Mar 3, 2016 - 10:21am
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1046
4068

And we have a breakout, is it

And we have a breakout, is it real or just a double top ?

Thu, Mar 3, 2016 - 10:45am
Pete
Offline
-
Fair Oaks, CA
Joined: Jun 24, 2011
1006
3618

April gold 60m

We have the classic little whipsaw at the 3p line on the 60m, confirmed best by the hourly close over the line (i.e. a buy trigger at the target line).

I would love to be wrong about a top coming very soon. Maybe gold does explode up to the first reaction line on the monthly chart!? That would be very fun!

JUNE gold R1 today about 1278.50.

Thu, Mar 3, 2016 - 10:54am
Pete
Offline
-
Fair Oaks, CA
Joined: Jun 24, 2011
1006
3618

@Solsson

70% gold compared to silver? Do you mean in his physical holdings he has 70% $value in gold and 30% $value in silver?

Oh, and 61.8% R of what range? Please specify. I don't follow this thread closely...

What does 97z mean? Is that a typo?

Thanks, Pete

Thu, Mar 3, 2016 - 11:55am (Reply to #8770)
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1046
4068

1. Yes total physical

1. Yes total physical holdings

2. From the top in 2011

3. 12-13rows down in this post

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/648461#comment-648461

No, I want a new low I am in DUST, and I feel the pain, down -17% at the moment ...

This is a great day for all "cartoonist" analysts out there loving patterns like, oh it's a flag, no it's a pennant, yeah it's a symmetrical triangle, wohoo ...

A sad day for me who believes in elliott wave, timelines, fibonacci. I must give cartoon patterns greater respect in the future.