The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 8:17am gold slut
Green Lantern
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gold slut wrote:Don't get me

gold slut wrote:

Don't get me started about that Mr Armstrong. When you hear 'messages' like that, it just smacks of desperation to chase peoples interest from PMs.

If you are a gold bug, Armstrong being a counter indicator of price movement would be great news for gold bugs. As it turns out, the majority of the gold analysts people quote on this site, have been the counter indicators, Armstrong not so much.

There is still some bearish forces we have to contend with in gold. That's just the reality.

Don't mean to be a downer on a Monday morning but it's much more profitable to know the truth.

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 9:53am Green Lantern
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armstrong has a tendency to

armstrong has a tendency to be pretty accurate big picture.

but he gets his timing wrong at times. With gold top - he was right but just early. he called the top before the final spike and missed some. but big picture he was right. Gold was overbought and has corrected for ages!

He calls the bottom. The same may be the case. He may miss some of the rise. If you read his writings he now says that we may still see a bottom / we may not have seen the bottom yet. He isnt saying Gold has not reached bottom which he did previously. This subtle change of language is Armstrong saying - Gold could well spike down for fresh lows. But they may not if certain bullish reversals are triggered. Time has been satisfied for a low but it is possible to see another spike down.

He doesnt say the low is in for the euro. He is very specific. The 80 level will be tested. He doesnt say that 800 gold will happen. He says that we may see a spike lower and 1000 or 800 could be tested.

But track records are what they are. You need to follow people for a long time to understand when they are being cautious and when they are overly optimistic / pessimistic.

When Sinclair says GOTS and when Armstrong say GOTS - do they mean GOTS if you are a joe bloggs or do they mean if you have masses to lose. Someone with £20k in the bank has a different problem to someone with £5m in the bank. If the governments walked away from everyone with £20k in the bank - there will be riots. If they walk away from everyone with >xk in the bank - they will get away with it. Where is xk. I can guarantee the govts have modelled this. They will know. A government does not need to enslave a slave. Especially when they are ignorant to the fact. MA calls governments stupid but they are not that stupid.

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 5:55pm
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COMEX

Looks like COMEX clearing is getting in the danger zone...

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Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 6:29pm
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fosco

You are right, governments are not stupid. Somebody posted this link and I thank them for it. It is very enlightening on how government works, there not so secret anymore strategies are explained.

It explains the reason for all the data collection and this was written 35 years ago. There are a lot of complex equations that I had to skim over but the underlying story explains the way things are today and why.

https://www.lawfulpath.com/ref/sw4qw/index.shtml

edit: I went back and looked for who posted that link. I was unsuccessful. Who ever it was I thank you.

The article was written in 1979.

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 7:02pm
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@ sengfarmer

The manner in which governments can effectively be stupid, and tend to be stupid, is that policy groups and ideological stances can be numerous and even diametrically opposed within the same 'government,' with the waters further muddied by lobby and pressure groups, including the banksters, military, MSM, electorate, allies, the issue of short termism within the political cycle and so on.

The results can often be as we see in US policy in the middle east, where we can scratch our heads and wonder and debate what on earth is the policy. Because there is likely not one, but the expression of a fractious and divided 'head office.' The invariably very clever left and right hands do different things, and even sabotage each other. To the outside observer, it can indeed look like government stupidity.

just my 2 cents.

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 5:32am
sengfarmer
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Byzantium

Thank you for your thoughts. That was pretty much the way I thought until I read that paper, now not so much. How could a paper written 35 years ago explain why things are happening the way they are happening today and at an accelerating pace? Every thing makes sense in a horrifying way. All the false flags, the spying and the collection of every individuals data, HAARP, chemtrails, the use of disinfo agents, the disarray and chaos within the system, it's all being used as a means to get to the end by those at the very top running the program.

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 11:57am sengfarmer
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conspiracy

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/public-gets-chance-buy-royal-154356323...

If you want conspiracy - have a look at this....

Why would you open up this service with gold in a mega bear?

Unless you see a big pop and a bit of media frenzy imminent to get people to buy into this with a view to then confiscating all of the gold that is stored there.

Its almost perfect. How hard is to confiscate gold held in a private vault. a lot harder than if it is stored in the royal mint.

Of course this is all conjecture and horse play :-)

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 12:09pm
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Same story another media

Same story another media link:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-3105718/Pay-20-slice-gold-new-accessible-bullion-scheme-Royal-Mint.html

Here is The Royal Mint site for this new "product" :

https://www.royalmintbullion.com/

Based on my charts this is a couple of weeks early of whatever public surprise event it represents anticipation of.

And let's not forget the recent Bitgold entry to the retail bullion PM market.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 1:04pm argentus maximus
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If we extend the conspiracy

If we extend the conspiracy concept......

The bilderberg meeting comes on June 9th i think to 14th.

Whatever gets agreed there could be interesting. Or could be a load of hot air. But I suspect that something is planned.

Is the bilderberg meeting to put the finishing touches on it. Is it to provide air cover to get the conspiracy nuts blaming the bilderbergers. Something is coming regardless.

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 4:59pm Silver_Surfer
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Silver_Surfer wrote: Looks

Silver_Surfer wrote:

Looks like COMEX clearing is getting in the danger zone...

A COMEX default, when will some of you guys give this one up?

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 11:35pm
Safety Dan
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From A Friend..

I do my Armstrong models from major turns NOT fixed dates.

I split into 1/8ths as per his H&S pattern.

Turns at 2/8ths 3/8 4/8 5/8 6/8 and 8/8ths.

The chart below shows up to 6/8ths with that mid Aug 2015.

Interestingly, the full 8.6 years ends Oct 11 2017.

Yep, 10 years exactly from 2007 top and 1 day more than 15 years from 2002 low.

What a coincidence !!!

Wed, Jun 3, 2015 - 12:00am
Safety Dan
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Submitted by tyberious on June 3, 2015 - 11:52am.

A new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today says that US Secretary of John Kerry was “gravely wounded” yesterday (31 May) after a secret meeting he was holding with a top Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS/ISIL) commander erupted in gunfire in what Federation intelligence analysts are calling an “obvious assassination attempt”.

https://www.eutimes.net/2015/06/us-secretary-of-state-kerry-reported-gravely-wounded-after-french-gun-battle/

Wed, Jun 3, 2015 - 12:05am
Safety Dan
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From previous post on: May

From previous post on: May 21, 2015 - 6:19pm

#7548

AM,

Your dates from the above post ending our "downward ho" cycle is looking right on man!

From a previous post:

"May 8, 2015 - 5:51pm

Safety Dan #7503

AM, here's some more cycle dates:

May 13th & 15th are concluding cycles. So are May 25th & 28th important dates. "

Is it possible?

Its looking like I got one right as the upward cycle ended on May 14th, 2015. May we celebrate with posting of additional forward dates?

For June: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th are all inflection dates. June 9th and 12th are concluding cycles.

Without question I will miss on some of these dates and need to eat crow.

Wed, Jun 3, 2015 - 1:11am
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If Bo is right...

and we get a June spike up in gold (with Grexit?), it will be game on if/when the Dec futures close above the monthly lower H on the chart below (green arrow). If it can do that, there's potential for a move to the red ML up near 1340+ (red arrow). Meanwhile, there should be stiff resistance to any rally attempt at the downtrend line (black arrow).

It could make for a great option play, or leveraged ETF. Must take profits at the ML.

Wed, Jun 3, 2015 - 4:11am
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Peaks in GV and inflections

Peaks in GV and inflections would be yesterday, 10th, 14th, 16th, 24th, 30th.

But it's all crazy for the second half of the month. Looking forward, and in my opinion, mid June 2015 contains high potential for big market turn or breakout. Those who keep track of the G-V here just need to know that it is elevated from 10th June, and the peaks this month come in the form of spikes above elevated to extreme high levels for short periods. The two weeks after mid June remain sufficiently and chronically high on G-V to sustain a campaign of international size. Am I blowing smoke? We'll soon see.

Here is an interesting idea:

What if the west have sold, leased or otherwise run down their gold holdings to the point where they can not apply sufficient leverage to move the price of gold to their advantage (both upwards as well as downwards)?

So if breaking it down has become impossible for the moment, due to a hardened class of accumulator style bids below price (witness the lows for 18-24 months) - then in that case it must move upwards to dislodge weaker holders from within that hardened class of buyers of gold, like eg cash strapped mining companies.

In which case, since armchair generals never lead the charge but use expendable infantry from other families, other peoples' money is required to bid up gold. And so we see the miracle of public news about gold in a positive context, even on Bloomberg.

Why not drop margins too? Lower the barrier and send out invites.

So when a fresh cullable herd forms, and their money spun up 50x behind the curtain, they can be stampeded up and down at lower cost than would otherwise be the case. And the west can retrieve some of their shiny back from Mr Market without having to bid so much freshly printed ... errr cash ... for it. (Was that "war on cash" or "war on other peoples cash" ? Some things seem quite a bit vague when you look carefully. People should someday shine the money laundering searchlight back at where it originates, now wouldn't that be entertaining!)

All makes sense to me. In which case as more public enters or becomes drawn in, volatility will rise both upwards and downwards as they get fleeced in the most scientific way possible.

Scientific is a nice word for it. It has an extremely wide range of meanings for those who have eyes and ears.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jun 3, 2015 - 7:59am
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Things that make you go "hmmmmm"

Posted on 2 Jun 2015 by Koos Jansen

US Government Lost 7 Fort Knox Gold Audit Reports

"Every year the gold in Fort Knox is ‘audited’ by checking the official joint seals that were placed on all vault compartments during the continuing audits of U.S.-owned gold from 1974 until 1986, when allegedly 97 % of the gold was inspected. However, a Freedom Of Information Act request I’ve submitted in order to obtain all audit reports could not be honored. Seven reports are missing....

If we carefully read the scarce audit reports available to us, we notice the audit procedures were revised in 1983. As a result more than 1,700 tonnes at the Fort Knox and the Denver depository, that were both fully audited and sealed at that time, needed to be re-audited....

When thinking about these re-audits, three scenarios pop to mind:

  1. In 1983 the OIG found out something was amiss with the audits performed 1974 – 1982. It was decided to destroy several audit and assay reports and no less than 1,700 tonnes needed to be re-audited.
  2. The US government wished to open the vaults of audited gold to lease or sell the metal on the open market. An excuse was needed to break the seals. The BGFO and Mint staff was replaced by the OIG and the “revised audit procedures” were invented as a reason to open several compartments.
  3. The auditors were bored and decided to re-audit 1,700 tonnes.

Why else would so much gold have been re-audited?"

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/us-government-lost-7-fort-...

Wed, Jun 3, 2015 - 1:15pm argentus maximus
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argentus maximus wrote:In

argentus maximus wrote:

In which case as more public enters or becomes drawn in, volatility will rise both upwards and downwards as they get fleeced in the most scientific way possible.

Scientific is a nice word for it. It has an extremely wide range of meanings for those who have eyes and ears.

If you've ever been fleeced by the newsflow and can admit to it (Aye), I'd print that out and put it on your refrigerator especially if and when those "shocking and unexpected" highs come in June and you're feeling happier than a pig in mud. I've been waiting for the next set of greenhorns to be called into action. If a good hustle works, why not use it again?

Reminds me of the time I had to pull off the highway in Harlem to check my tires. A guy approaches me and asks me if I want to buy any gold chains or watches. I looked him square in the eye and say naahh. Not the quality I'm looking for. Then he looks back at me and says to me every man needs a hustle. And shaw nuff, he was right! Who would have thought I'd find a philosopher on 125th Street in Harlem.

The gold news flow ain't much different than the street hustler selling 14k stainless steel.

Thu, Jun 4, 2015 - 6:52am argentus maximus
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Brilliant!

Long time lurker on this thread. What I love about your posts Argentus is that you challenge your readers to think for themselves. Of course, it isn't for everyone. There are many who prefer a guru who spoon feeds trades to them, naming no names. It is human nature to want success without effort. I have the same dialogue when helping my kids with their homework! I find your posts extremely challenging at times but the education is in the understanding, which requires diligence. Your "interesting idea" struck a chord with me and I wanted to thank you for sharing it with the community.

I can't really add too much to the thread. I last posted awhile ago, commenting on the Gold chart in AUD. The silver chart in AUD now interests me and looks to be completing a reverse head and shoulders which looks like it is ready to break out over the next week or so. I thought that it fitted nicely with your timescales.

Thu, Jun 4, 2015 - 9:26am
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Yes, a raise in interest

Yes, a raise in interest rates and OMXS30 is down by -1,2%, soon the c-wave is confirmed :-) waiting for the next RNP, I was inspired by RNP211-212:

Ok there is something going on at the quarter wave, but look were we are now, correction time if you ask me.

Fri, Jun 5, 2015 - 5:00am
Safety Dan
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Peaks In GV and Inflection Dates

From AM's post above:

Peaks in GV and inflections would be yesterday, 10th, 14th, 16th, 24th, 30th.

But it's all crazy for the second half of the month. Looking forward, and in my opinion, mid June 2015 contains high potential for big market turn or breakout. Those who keep track of the G-V here just need to know that it is elevated from 10th June, and the peaks this month come in the form of spikes above elevated to extreme high levels for short periods. The tw0 weeks after mid June remain sufficiently and chronically high on G-V to sustain a campaign of international size. Am I blowing smoke? We'll soon see.

Great thoughts AM....

I've indicated above that June 9th & 12th are key dates. Let me add the 12th and 19th are concluding cycles. Then as you indicate the 16th, 24th & 30th. I'll add 19th, 26th and 29th are important cycle dates for the two weeks after mid June.

This many monthly cycle dates gives me reason to believe something is going on behind the scene. Maybe it the GV of international size you posted. Maybe I have got more to learn regarding cycles..

Now for the conspiracy minded, here's more regarding John Kerry who broke his leg "while cycling". Please read this article on the injury and how the accident happened.

From LA Times:

https://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-kerry-accident-20150531-story.html

"Kerry, 71, broke his right femur early Sunday, said John Kirby, a State Department spokesman. The break is near the site of a prior hip replacement surgery, Kirby said."

From RT: https://rt.com/usa/263641-john-kerry-hospitalized-france/

It was later confirmed by a State Department spokesman that Kerry had in fact broken his right femur (thigh bone), but his injury was not life threatening and he is expected to make a full recovery. Kerry was set to return to the United States for treatment, canceling planned visits to Madrid and Paris, but decided to remain in hospital overnight.

"The cycle-loving, 71 year-old Kerry had been in Switzerland for talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to try and secure a nuclear deal. The June 30 deadline approaching, but Tehran has rejected a key demand by the West, which would grant access for inspections."

From LA Times:

"Kerry, an avid cyclist who brings his bike and cycling clothing with him on overseas trips, was bicycling in the town of Scionzier, France, just across the border from Geneva. He had set off to climb through an Alpine pass that is part of the Tour de France route.
When the accident happened, however, Kerry was traveling slowly on flat ground, the French news service Agence France Presse reported. His bicycle tire appears to have hit a curb, causing him to fall, local officials told the news service.
For more on U.S. foreign policy, follow @RichtPau."

Hope that is indeed the case - that an avid cyclist broke his right thigh bone, traveling slowly on a flat surface, when he hit a curb.

Question: how many avid cyclist break their thigh bone while traveling slowly, on flat ground, when they hit a curb? Apparently 1, John Kerry. Sounds a bit offish to me.. but hey, all is good..