argentus maximus wrote: Hi Solsson. Since you asked so nicely I'm working it down to daily timescale to produce some zoomed in with greater and most interesting details for RNP-ers.
Hi Solsson. Since you asked so nicely I'm working it down to daily timescale to produce some zoomed in with greater and most interesting details for RNP-ers.
Haha yes I am alway's a little bit too direct and since you managed to spell my name correct I will try to ask you in a more humble way in the future. I was in the middle of a trade and you were online so no time for diplomacy.
Thank you Silver Surfer, yes agree that's the most logical outcome, so no hope for a grexit to trigger my c wave, US/Obama do not want to let the greeceians walk away into Putins lap.
I don't have the means to verify but according to twitter the EFSF/Bund spread has increased significantly today. Will be interesting to see who will take the eventual loss on Greek bonds. I would guess that IMF and EFSF would be first on the hook but the individual countries have guaranteed a lot as well. Not sure to what extent private investors are involved.
Keeping Southern-Europe and Ukraine afloat must cost the west a lot though...
Worth a read perhaps - interesting.
Health reminder: Don't use your back like a crane! Stay upright & use your legs
zman wrote: "Gold is the hedge against government" This really makes no sense, he doesn't even go into detail why he thinks the US government will fail.
"Gold is the hedge against government"
This really makes no sense, he doesn't even go into detail why he thinks the US government will fail.
I've been looking at cycles of consumerism in modern and ancient cultures. The rise of the Leisure Class type stuff by Veblen. As more of society rises into ease and comfort, the lower class tries to imitate the wealthy by purchasing brands and goes into debt. This cycle is timeless.
Sometime back AM posted a video on some celtic booty and gold torcs. I thought I'd look more into a society that valued these things almost above all other things. They liked their fancy clothes and jewelry and their fermented wheat. To maintain that lifestyle they had to invade neighboring tribes. But they liked Roman wine even more. So a happy friendship was forged. Obviously, the Roman thirst for good wine created an enormous grape trade that spanned the globe. Expansion, expansion, expansion. The big lie.
The can do spirit engendered during World War 2 was all but gone by mid-60's a causality of consumerism/materialism. Please don't mistake my invoking of those terms as a call to go live in a cabin in the woods as a spiritually superior way of life.
As the leisure class rises, the lower class move into a state of slavery and live off the public dole unwilling to step into a new line of work that pays less. Humanities mobility slows in terms of physical and mental movements. Is that not the very condition of slavery? That is our societies state today.
I wanted to see if Martin Armstrong tapped into this cycle and with a google did find, he has acknowledged this cycle in humanity. Yes, it's more than government. It's government only mimicking the needs and wants of the populace. https://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2013-2/the-age-of-materialismconsumerism If you didnt' want or need more, why would you vote a guy that promises the samething ever four years?
However, I don't think Armstrong is complete because going back and looking at bull markets through history, you find times where society is industrious and are producers like after the revolutionary war. The cycle of war comes along and the easy life goes away. The war is almost a clash of the human need for more, and nature seeking balance.
It's in these transition times that gold seems to best based on looking a few analogues especially turning points in the industrial revolution. This could be an entire books and nights of research. AM has also remarked it wasn't deflation or inflation but periods of transition (interest rates) too that gold does best. Am I recalling that correctly? The finances are just showing transitions in needs and pursuits. Need more money for expansion and war. The populace is never gonna call the politicians out on the lie that continual expansion is possible because they are living it.
And whenever sloth and mental slavery take over society, there seems to be this invisible that force sweeps in to balance out this materialistic force. Gold seems to do very well. Probably a dozen or more pieces of data or markers you could use to look at timing of these things but if we are talking generalities, I think this is an over looked one.
It might take an inordinate amount of time to put up gold charts of the past, and look at other markers besides currencies, interest rates, cycles of inflation/deflation but it can probably be done and predict the turn everybody is looking for as accurately. The increased frequency of "scandals" Libor, Forex, housing debacle is obviously an overt cycle that indicates a transition is happening. Just not the one everybody thinks it is.
All I will say is that over the past week / two weeks I have noticed a couple of things.
This week I have felt totally down on the markets. As in - I have felt like throwing in the towel. I have wondered what I have been doing.
Last week I was on the phone to a Director of a mining company I hold stock in. He was re-assuring me not to sell and not to panic. They would ride it out. He is a good guy.
I have noticed a trend on when I speak to the director of the mining company. I have noticed a trend on when I feel this way.
The only time I sold some metals I felt this way. They broke out the following week. Mostly it is just before an up move. However - I also felt like this when price collapsed through 1500. I didnt call the director of the mining company then though.
I never feel like this at tops. I have different emotions. Oddly - having realised that I feel how I would normally feel at bottoms just before an increase in price I now feel (today) how I would feel closer to tops. Is this evolution of me and my emotions? Or is it that metals will rise today to be hammered and go down next week :-).
All paths go to one conclusion. There is no easy way to make money..... Just hard ways and less hard ways!
My fur is growing back a c-wave finally on it's way?
Have a nice weekend!
Meanwhile, April saw the biggest decline in gold shipment to China that traditionally go through Switzerland. They fell 67% in April. As the economy has been turning down in Asia, the demand for gold has fallen by about 36%.
With demand dropping, government cutting off the ability to even buy gold in Europe, mixed with a rising dollar, all warns that the final low for gold may yet be on the horizon.
Don't get me started about that Mr Armstrong. When you hear 'messages' like that, it just smacks of desperation to chase peoples interest from PMs. They will be saying buying gold and silver gives you cancer next. Sheesh....
gold slut wrote: Don't get me started about that Mr Armstrong. When you hear 'messages' like that, it just smacks of desperation to chase peoples interest from PMs.
Don't get me started about that Mr Armstrong. When you hear 'messages' like that, it just smacks of desperation to chase peoples interest from PMs.
If you are a gold bug, Armstrong being a counter indicator of price movement would be great news for gold bugs. As it turns out, the majority of the gold analysts people quote on this site, have been the counter indicators, Armstrong not so much.
There is still some bearish forces we have to contend with in gold. That's just the reality.
Don't mean to be a downer on a Monday morning but it's much more profitable to know the truth.
armstrong has a tendency to be pretty accurate big picture.
but he gets his timing wrong at times. With gold top - he was right but just early. he called the top before the final spike and missed some. but big picture he was right. Gold was overbought and has corrected for ages!
He calls the bottom. The same may be the case. He may miss some of the rise. If you read his writings he now says that we may still see a bottom / we may not have seen the bottom yet. He isnt saying Gold has not reached bottom which he did previously. This subtle change of language is Armstrong saying - Gold could well spike down for fresh lows. But they may not if certain bullish reversals are triggered. Time has been satisfied for a low but it is possible to see another spike down.
He doesnt say the low is in for the euro. He is very specific. The 80 level will be tested. He doesnt say that 800 gold will happen. He says that we may see a spike lower and 1000 or 800 could be tested.
But track records are what they are. You need to follow people for a long time to understand when they are being cautious and when they are overly optimistic / pessimistic.
When Sinclair says GOTS and when Armstrong say GOTS - do they mean GOTS if you are a joe bloggs or do they mean if you have masses to lose. Someone with £20k in the bank has a different problem to someone with £5m in the bank. If the governments walked away from everyone with £20k in the bank - there will be riots. If they walk away from everyone with >xk in the bank - they will get away with it. Where is xk. I can guarantee the govts have modelled this. They will know. A government does not need to enslave a slave. Especially when they are ignorant to the fact. MA calls governments stupid but they are not that stupid.
Looks like COMEX clearing is getting in the danger zone...
You are right, governments are not stupid. Somebody posted this link and I thank them for it. It is very enlightening on how government works, there not so secret anymore strategies are explained.
It explains the reason for all the data collection and this was written 35 years ago. There are a lot of complex equations that I had to skim over but the underlying story explains the way things are today and why.
edit: I went back and looked for who posted that link. I was unsuccessful. Who ever it was I thank you.
The article was written in 1979.
The manner in which governments can effectively be stupid, and tend to be stupid, is that policy groups and ideological stances can be numerous and even diametrically opposed within the same 'government,' with the waters further muddied by lobby and pressure groups, including the banksters, military, MSM, electorate, allies, the issue of short termism within the political cycle and so on.
The results can often be as we see in US policy in the middle east, where we can scratch our heads and wonder and debate what on earth is the policy. Because there is likely not one, but the expression of a fractious and divided 'head office.' The invariably very clever left and right hands do different things, and even sabotage each other. To the outside observer, it can indeed look like government stupidity.
just my 2 cents.
Thank you for your thoughts. That was pretty much the way I thought until I read that paper, now not so much. How could a paper written 35 years ago explain why things are happening the way they are happening today and at an accelerating pace? Every thing makes sense in a horrifying way. All the false flags, the spying and the collection of every individuals data, HAARP, chemtrails, the use of disinfo agents, the disarray and chaos within the system, it's all being used as a means to get to the end by those at the very top running the program.
If you want conspiracy - have a look at this....
Why would you open up this service with gold in a mega bear?
Unless you see a big pop and a bit of media frenzy imminent to get people to buy into this with a view to then confiscating all of the gold that is stored there.
Its almost perfect. How hard is to confiscate gold held in a private vault. a lot harder than if it is stored in the royal mint.
Of course this is all conjecture and horse play :-)
Same story another media link:
Here is The Royal Mint site for this new "product" :
Based on my charts this is a couple of weeks early of whatever public surprise event it represents anticipation of.
And let's not forget the recent Bitgold entry to the retail bullion PM market.
If we extend the conspiracy concept......
The bilderberg meeting comes on June 9th i think to 14th.
Whatever gets agreed there could be interesting. Or could be a load of hot air. But I suspect that something is planned.
Is the bilderberg meeting to put the finishing touches on it. Is it to provide air cover to get the conspiracy nuts blaming the bilderbergers. Something is coming regardless.
Silver_Surfer wrote: Looks like COMEX clearing is getting in the danger zone...
A COMEX default, when will some of you guys give this one up?