The setup for the big trade

12394 posts / 0 new
Last post
Tue, May 26, 2015 - 4:40pm
fslade
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jul 23, 2013
88
359

This is the dollar weekly

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/639429#comment-639429

This is the dollar weekly 2012/2013.

Had someone said that, on the way down from A, "if there is a close below the last pivot (the hammer-ish candle that I should have labelled that just dips below the 8144 SR) then price will go to 7880", that would have been a similar call to the one Turd made. Price also reversed immediately after the close here like it did recently after Turd's call, as was pointed out - yet, price DID go to 7880, eventually. It just took the money of all the people who had the same idea and got short with their stops above the pivot at A first.

There is no such thing as an obvious trade. And I'm not knocking Turd by the way, I'm just pointing out something he knows, that being "right" (price could still go where Turd said) and making money are different things. If you want to read webpages that point out, with 100% certainty, that price is about to move in a straight line from X to Y with no drawdown, then let me know when you find it, as I'd like to read it too.

Tue, May 26, 2015 - 7:11pm
Hammer
Offline
-
Somewhere over the rainbow
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
5504
16209

for your perusal - interesting angle....or just self promotion ?

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
Thu, May 28, 2015 - 5:20am
Oboma
Offline
Joined: Sep 1, 2011
155
733

Gold the Hedge Against

Gold the Hedge Against Government Posted on May 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong I have stated countless time that gold is NOT the hedge against inflation, hyperinflation, the anti-fiat antagonist against the dollar, or manipulation keeps gold down, paper gold suppresses the price, and anything of the sort that amounts to promotions or excuses. Gold has followed the deflationary trend in commodities if you haven’t paid attention to oil and money supply is not a one-to-one relationship with inflation for this is a global economy driven by CONFIDENCE. All of that nonsense is pure BULLSHIT to state it bluntly. Every single one of those sales promotions are meaningless and most manipulations in metals have been to the upside to get the unsuspecting to rush in and buy every single high and then they crash it. This has been going on since the 1970s. I knew the Hunt brothers in the early 1970s. They became a household name when the promoters exposed them to get people convinced they would see $100 silver so buy now at $50. All of these promotions existed for the 19 year decline from 1980 to 1999. They roll them out to dupe people into buying every rally and these same pretend analysts are selling gold which is a conflict of interest. Come on. There is more regulation today protecting the public in buying a used car than there is in gold. I am not selling gold. There is ALWAYS a time to BUY and there will be a time to SELL. Sorry – I am a trader first and foremost. Gold is the hedge against government. The low in terms of dollars is still probably not in place. Keep in mind that we may yet see a major rally in the dollar and that will help gold decline in dollars. NEVERTHELESS, that is the TRADING view. Gold from the hedging perspective may have lost its movability. This will have some dampening effect in price long-term. However, if we are talking about trading, then there may be better opportunities than gold. Perhaps the way to make gold movable again is we should all start to wear bling-bing as they call it. Perhaps a 2 ounce wedding ring. If we are talking about hedging, then yes you should have some common gold coins or jewelry. Where to store them is another whole problem. So we are not talking about trading in this context. They are moving rapidly to shunt down paper currency for they see this as the only way to prevent a bank meltdown, collect all taxes they ever dreamed of, and prevent anyone from buying or selling without government approval using terrorism and drug dealers as the prime excuse. Of course how are the police going to make money? When I landed in Poland, big signs at the airport declared it was illegal to carry ANYTHING would more than €10.000. This is going to be a very questionable future we face. I remain skeptical that these people can hold on to power for we may be faced with a serious political meltdown come 2016 into 2017. Gold is the hedge against government not fiat or inflation. In this context coins of common date will be the best rather than bars. Of course you may not be able to leave your home. We cannot stop what is coming. We have to crash and burn. We are in a battle for our freedom and that of our children. This is the only reason I have not run off to a beach and retire. What about my own posterity? While the crash and burn is inevitable, perhaps we can reduce the pain if we push back when the time comes and prevent the complete loss of all rights, privileges, and immunities, which for Americans was once embodied in our Constitution securing the right of citizens to travel from one state to another was already protected by the Privileges and Immunities Clause.

Thu, May 28, 2015 - 7:29am
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3826
25124

Today is both an inflection

Today is both an inflection and and a G-V peak of some size.

Usual stuff beginning financial, medical, crime, and the usual power interaction:

https://uk.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-biggest-fear-is-a-killer-flu-2015-5?r=US

Weak yen helps Nikkei rise a 10th day, its longest win streak in 27 years

No reported military events just yet.

Next one has been known about for decades but something somehow happens about it this week:

https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/27/us-soccer-fifa-arrests-idUSKBN0OC0B020150527

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Still hard to say which way gold will break. On balance I'm bullish, but it's still non-directional and not a done deal just yet. Stops!!

On the daily timeframe volatility is due to increase for gold.

There are bigger inflections next month than today, but that's then and this is now, and I can't see how today won't accompany a decent price event of some kind.

Holding longs with no leverage, probably will add a small amount of Au to holdings, about 1%.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, May 28, 2015 - 9:16am Oboma
fslade
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Jul 23, 2013
88
359

"I have stated countless time

"I have stated countless time that gold is NOT the hedge against inflation, hyperinflation, the anti-fiat antagonist against the dollar, or manipulation keeps gold down, paper gold suppresses the price, and anything of the sort that amounts to promotions or excuses. Gold has followed the deflationary trend in commodities if you haven’t paid attention to oil and money supply is not a one-to-one relationship with inflation for this is a global economy driven by CONFIDENCE. All of that nonsense is pure BULLSHIT to state it bluntly."

This is the kind of tone and vocab used by a malcontent in a newspaper comments section. It takes a notable track record before I will listen to someone banging the table shouting "and another thing...." - which he doesn't have.

Thu, May 28, 2015 - 9:35am
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1101
4201

What about stockmarkets AM? I

What about stockmarkets AM? I have no fur on my wolf butt, got fleeced yesterday :-/ stops trigged once again, false brakeout's both up and down ... the wolf pack howls and laughs at the same time, I am no longer the alpha ...

What is thread readers opinion about the grexit, final decision on Sunday ...

  • no->stockmarket fall
  • yes->stockmarket rise, but for how long?

/Sol"The trader wolf with no fur"son

Thu, May 28, 2015 - 11:00am Solsson
Silver_Surfer
Offline
Joined: Jul 5, 2014
135
325

Solsson wrote: What is thread

Solsson wrote:

What is thread readers opinion about the grexit, final decision on Sunday ...

  • no->stockmarket fall
  • yes->stockmarket rise, but for how long?

/Sol"The trader wolf with no fur"son

With regards to Grexit I don't think it will happen. it would raise doubts about Italy and NATO needs Greece in the western camp. (Partial) Default is not unlikely though (as they are unable to pay in the long run). My guess would be however that they kick the can down the road once more to see a (partial) default later in the year.

Looking to trade crypto on leverage? BitMex is the biggest and most liquid crypto futures exhange that offers leverage up to 100x. Click here to get a 10% fee discount during the first 6 months. Please don't wreck yourself by actually leveraging 100x. Alternatives are 1Fox & 1Broker (1Broker has forex & legacy markets also).
Thu, May 28, 2015 - 12:40pm Solsson
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3826
25124

Solsson wrote:What about

Solsson wrote:

What about stockmarkets AM? I .....

Hi Solsson. Since you asked so nicely , and since today is "other markets Thursday" I wondered what you might like most. The best fights are where one contestant is "a local boy" ...... so here is a long term exploration of something local to you - the OMXS30.

This is the big picture here - but this afternoon I'm working it down to daily timescale to produce some zoomed in with greater and most interesting details for RNP-ers.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, May 28, 2015 - 1:00pm
Offline
-
Dublin
Ireland
Joined: Jan 20, 2013
3826
25124

SLV weekly update

And for everybody else here is the update of the weekly projection for the SLV fund.

I have an alt scenario running on this, my "A" scenario to which SLV will someday return, and this would be called my "B" scenario, but it's the one playing right now.

So here is an extremely interesting SLV chart for readers of "Setup for the big trade":

If this scenario keeps playing out Mr Polny will have a good run. If it breaks, and it's only got a 30%-40% play probability, but it's been relatively ok recently, I'll post the alt projection when that happens possibly about mid June. Generally it follows the seasonal for silver with a mid summer low followed by a rally. Odds always favour the seasonal by a small percentage even if it's not working at any given time, but that's what stops are for, right?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, May 28, 2015 - 1:18pm Oboma
zman
Offline
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
1401
4644

JazzTalker wrote:Gold the

JazzTalker wrote:
Gold the Hedge Against Government Posted on May 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong I have stated countless time that gold is NOT the hedge against inflation, hyperinflation, the anti-fiat antagonist against the dollar, or manipulation keeps gold down, paper gold suppresses the price, and anything of the sort that amounts to promotions or excuses. Gold has followed the deflationary trend in commodities if you haven’t paid attention to oil and money supply is not a one-to-one relationship with inflation for this is a global economy driven by CONFIDENCE. All of that nonsense is pure BULLSHIT to state it bluntly. Every single one of those sales promotions are meaningless and most manipulations in metals have been to the upside to get the unsuspecting to rush in and buy every single high and then they crash it. This has been going on since the 1970s. I knew the Hunt brothers in the early 1970s. They became a household name when the promoters exposed them to get people convinced they would see $100 silver so buy now at $50. All of these promotions existed for the 19 year decline from 1980 to 1999. They roll them out to dupe people into buying every rally and these same pretend analysts are selling gold which is a conflict of interest. Come on. There is more regulation today protecting the public in buying a used car than there is in gold. I am not selling gold. There is ALWAYS a time to BUY and there will be a time to SELL. Sorry – I am a trader first and foremost. Gold is the hedge against government. The low in terms of dollars is still probably not in place. Keep in mind that we may yet see a major rally in the dollar and that will help gold decline in dollars. NEVERTHELESS, that is the TRADING view. Gold from the hedging perspective may have lost its movability. This will have some dampening effect in price long-term. However, if we are talking about trading, then there may be better opportunities than gold. Perhaps the way to make gold movable again is we should all start to wear bling-bing as they call it. Perhaps a 2 ounce wedding ring. If we are talking about hedging, then yes you should have some common gold coins or jewelry. Where to store them is another whole problem. So we are not talking about trading in this context. They are moving rapidly to shunt down paper currency for they see this as the only way to prevent a bank meltdown, collect all taxes they ever dreamed of, and prevent anyone from buying or selling without government approval using terrorism and drug dealers as the prime excuse. Of course how are the police going to make money? When I landed in Poland, big signs at the airport declared it was illegal to carry ANYTHING would more than €10.000. This is going to be a very questionable future we face. I remain skeptical that these people can hold on to power for we may be faced with a serious political meltdown come 2016 into 2017. Gold is the hedge against government not fiat or inflation. In this context coins of common date will be the best rather than bars. Of course you may not be able to leave your home. We cannot stop what is coming. We have to crash and burn. We are in a battle for our freedom and that of our children. This is the only reason I have not run off to a beach and retire. What about my own posterity? While the crash and burn is inevitable, perhaps we can reduce the pain if we push back when the time comes and prevent the complete loss of all rights, privileges, and immunities, which for Americans was once embodied in our Constitution securing the right of citizens to travel from one state to another was already protected by the Privileges and Immunities Clause.

I have to disagree with MA here.

"gold is NOT the hedge against inflation"

Yes it is, if we experience inflation that hurts stocks, real estate, bonds, and cash it will work as that hedge. If the inflation isn't high enough to hurt those investments (1980's-2000), gold isn't needed.

"Gold is the hedge against government"

This really makes no sense, he doesn't even go into detail why he thinks the US government will fail.

Thu, May 28, 2015 - 3:08pm argentus maximus
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1101
4201

argentus maximus wrote: Hi

argentus maximus wrote:

Hi Solsson. Since you asked so nicely I'm working it down to daily timescale to produce some zoomed in with greater and most interesting details for RNP-ers.

Haha yes I am alway's a little bit too direct and since you managed to spell my name correct I will try to ask you in a more humble way in the future. I was in the middle of a trade and you were online so no time for diplomacy.

Thank you Silver Surfer, yes agree that's the most logical outcome, so no hope for a grexit to trigger my c wave, US/Obama do not want to let the greeceians walk away into Putins lap.

Thu, May 28, 2015 - 5:27pm Solsson
Silver_Surfer
Offline
Joined: Jul 5, 2014
135
325

Grexit

I don't have the means to verify but according to twitter the EFSF/Bund spread has increased significantly today. Will be interesting to see who will take the eventual loss on Greek bonds. I would guess that IMF and EFSF would be first on the hook but the individual countries have guaranteed a lot as well. Not sure to what extent private investors are involved.

Keeping Southern-Europe and Ukraine afloat must cost the west a lot though...

Looking to trade crypto on leverage? BitMex is the biggest and most liquid crypto futures exhange that offers leverage up to 100x. Click here to get a 10% fee discount during the first 6 months. Please don't wreck yourself by actually leveraging 100x. Alternatives are 1Fox & 1Broker (1Broker has forex & legacy markets also).
Thu, May 28, 2015 - 8:37pm
Hammer
Offline
-
Somewhere over the rainbow
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
5504
16209

Worth a read perhaps -

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
Fri, May 29, 2015 - 4:57am
SilveryBlue
Offline
-
Auckland
New Zealand
Joined: Mar 7, 2013
1652
5689

I was weak today

Added Phys.

Health reminder: Don't use your back like a crane! Stay upright & use your legs

Fri, May 29, 2015 - 8:30am zman
Green Lantern
Offline
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
8518
48989

When Does Gold Do Well?

zman wrote:

"Gold is the hedge against government"

This really makes no sense, he doesn't even go into detail why he thinks the US government will fail.

I've been looking at cycles of consumerism in modern and ancient cultures. The rise of the Leisure Class type stuff by Veblen. As more of society rises into ease and comfort, the lower class tries to imitate the wealthy by purchasing brands and goes into debt. This cycle is timeless.

Sometime back AM posted a video on some celtic booty and gold torcs. I thought I'd look more into a society that valued these things almost above all other things. They liked their fancy clothes and jewelry and their fermented wheat. To maintain that lifestyle they had to invade neighboring tribes. But they liked Roman wine even more. So a happy friendship was forged. Obviously, the Roman thirst for good wine created an enormous grape trade that spanned the globe. Expansion, expansion, expansion. The big lie.

The can do spirit engendered during World War 2 was all but gone by mid-60's a causality of consumerism/materialism. Please don't mistake my invoking of those terms as a call to go live in a cabin in the woods as a spiritually superior way of life.

As the leisure class rises, the lower class move into a state of slavery and live off the public dole unwilling to step into a new line of work that pays less. Humanities mobility slows in terms of physical and mental movements. Is that not the very condition of slavery? That is our societies state today.

I wanted to see if Martin Armstrong tapped into this cycle and with a google did find, he has acknowledged this cycle in humanity. Yes, it's more than government. It's government only mimicking the needs and wants of the populace. https://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2013-2/the-age-of-materialismconsumerism If you didnt' want or need more, why would you vote a guy that promises the samething ever four years?

However, I don't think Armstrong is complete because going back and looking at bull markets through history, you find times where society is industrious and are producers like after the revolutionary war. The cycle of war comes along and the easy life goes away. The war is almost a clash of the human need for more, and nature seeking balance.

It's in these transition times that gold seems to best based on looking a few analogues especially turning points in the industrial revolution. This could be an entire books and nights of research. AM has also remarked it wasn't deflation or inflation but periods of transition (interest rates) too that gold does best. Am I recalling that correctly? The finances are just showing transitions in needs and pursuits. Need more money for expansion and war. The populace is never gonna call the politicians out on the lie that continual expansion is possible because they are living it.

And whenever sloth and mental slavery take over society, there seems to be this invisible that force sweeps in to balance out this materialistic force. Gold seems to do very well. Probably a dozen or more pieces of data or markers you could use to look at timing of these things but if we are talking generalities, I think this is an over looked one.

It might take an inordinate amount of time to put up gold charts of the past, and look at other markers besides currencies, interest rates, cycles of inflation/deflation but it can probably be done and predict the turn everybody is looking for as accurately. The increased frequency of "scandals" Libor, Forex, housing debacle is obviously an overt cycle that indicates a transition is happening. Just not the one everybody thinks it is.

Fri, May 29, 2015 - 8:31am zman
Green Lantern
Offline
Joined: Jun 15, 2011
8518
48989

dupe

dupe

Fri, May 29, 2015 - 10:00am Green Lantern
foscotanner
Offline
-
UK
Joined: Aug 28, 2012
562
1696

inner feelings

All I will say is that over the past week / two weeks I have noticed a couple of things.

This week I have felt totally down on the markets. As in - I have felt like throwing in the towel. I have wondered what I have been doing.

Last week I was on the phone to a Director of a mining company I hold stock in. He was re-assuring me not to sell and not to panic. They would ride it out. He is a good guy.

I have noticed a trend on when I speak to the director of the mining company. I have noticed a trend on when I feel this way.

The only time I sold some metals I felt this way. They broke out the following week. Mostly it is just before an up move. However - I also felt like this when price collapsed through 1500. I didnt call the director of the mining company then though.

I never feel like this at tops. I have different emotions. Oddly - having realised that I feel how I would normally feel at bottoms just before an increase in price I now feel (today) how I would feel closer to tops. Is this evolution of me and my emotions? Or is it that metals will rise today to be hammered and go down next week :-).

All paths go to one conclusion. There is no easy way to make money..... Just hard ways and less hard ways!

Fri, May 29, 2015 - 4:50pm
Solsson
Offline
-
Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1101
4201

My fur is growing back  a

My fur is growing back a c-wave finally on it's way?

https://se.investing.com/indices/omx-stockholm-30-advanced-chart

Have a nice weekend!

Sun, May 31, 2015 - 8:39am
Oboma
Offline
Joined: Sep 1, 2011
155
733

armstrong

Meanwhile, April saw the biggest decline in gold shipment to China that traditionally go through Switzerland. They fell 67% in April. As the economy has been turning down in Asia, the demand for gold has fallen by about 36%.

With demand dropping, government cutting off the ability to even buy gold in Europe, mixed with a rising dollar, all warns that the final low for gold may yet be on the horizon.

Sun, May 31, 2015 - 8:54am
gold slut
Offline
-
London
UK
Joined: Feb 23, 2013
471
2898

Armstrong - well it must be true then!

Don't get me started about that Mr Armstrong. When you hear 'messages' like that, it just smacks of desperation to chase peoples interest from PMs. They will be saying buying gold and silver gives you cancer next. Sheesh....