The setup for the big trade

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Fri, May 22, 2015 - 10:44am
Byzantium
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@ foscotanner

just one consideration to add to your mix.

What do the cartel want the long term chart to show, and will they pick up today's easy money fleecing shorts and longs in turn, if as a consequence it turns the long term chart more bullish?

Fri, May 22, 2015 - 1:52pm
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Dollar

Last Friday Turd stated that if the dollar closed below 94 and certainly if below 93.25, it was going to 90. The dollar has now rallied all week and sits at 96.18 or more than 3% higher. So, my question is what happened? If the answer is well it's all manipulated, then what's the point of looking at charts and trying to read the tea leaves when those in control will just control things the way they want. If the answer is Turd just got it wrong, than the question becomes is Turd more wrong than right and if it's the former, is there much value in listening to what he has to say. I must say I feel like Turd has definitely been far more wrong than right over the past 4 years. However, maybe that is just my personal bias.

Fri, May 22, 2015 - 3:38pm Stock_Canines
foscotanner
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@ stock canines If there is a

@ stock canines

If there is a clear trend where someone is mostly wrong it is as valuable as a trend where someone is mostly right. As long as you can see the trend.

:-)

Fri, May 22, 2015 - 5:21pm Stock_Canines
zman
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Stock_Canines wrote: Last

Stock_Canines wrote:

Last Friday Turd stated that if the dollar closed below 94 and certainly if below 93.25, it was going to 90. The dollar has now rallied all week and sits at 96.18 or more than 3% higher. So, my question is what happened? If the answer is well it's all manipulated, then what's the point of looking at charts and trying to read the tea leaves when those in control will just control things the way they want. If the answer is Turd just got it wrong, than the question becomes is Turd more wrong than right and if it's the former, is there much value in listening to what he has to say. I must say I feel like Turd has definitely been far more wrong than right over the past 4 years. However, maybe that is just my personal bias.

What US Dollar bears never mention in their analysis is why do they think the Euro, Yen, and Pound are going to trade higher on a relative basis?

If you went to Europe, I think you would find that the US dollar still doesn't buy very much and that the Euro is still overvalued at 1.10.

Sat, May 23, 2015 - 10:58am
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VAP weekly for spot silver and gold

Here is an update of the volume at price, weekly timescale, for spot gold and silver.

The balance within weekly is well displayed and the difference between the two metals is quite striking.

Gold remains balanced on top of a bell curve, possibly a tad below peak, whereas silver has without fuss slithered over on it's way towards the next trough and now has some support under. Silver needs to get plenty more of this to hold against next month/end of half year's incoming selling burst. Gold is on the balance because buyers have held against sellers as delivery date approaches, but the sellers have not cut and run.

Note that volume this week does not suggest any particular contest between sides has been determined. It's possible to say that Q4 2014 and Feb last contain the victory which has propelled and held the metals (above recent lows) and supported them at current levels against the multitude of bear trend followers. The late bears have not gone away, but they are late and taking risks. Some more churning before resolution expected.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, May 24, 2015 - 11:59am argentus maximus
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Explanation of VAP and how to

Explanation of VAP and how to use it:

Though they now seem to call it price by volume .... same thing.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/pbvchart.asp

A (different) video version for those who prefer it:

Trading with the Volume by Price Indicator

Regular readers of The Setup for The Big Trade and RNPers will know I have my own style in the way I use this and the VAP charts with commentary I post here periodically probably explain my interpretation reasonably well.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, May 24, 2015 - 6:01pm
Oboma
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Bit gold?

whats' this all about

Mon, May 25, 2015 - 12:06am
banman17
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re Bit Gold

I read in a tweet that goldmoney.com was sold to Bitgold.com, including all of its intellectual property rights for $51 million. Bitgold now allows you to pay for anything using currency, by selling the required amount of gold grams for dollars, and then transacting via the use of an Interac-like card. The beauty of this, as I see it, is that it will work anywhere for payment. Goldmoney formerly had to have the store accept goldgrams. But now, you can save in gold, and transact in dollars, since it does the conversion for you. The other nice thing is that storage is free for the gold, and it allows you to save outside of the banking system in gold.

See their features page here: https://www.bitgold.com/features

Mon, May 25, 2015 - 6:46am
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Announcement about Bitgold

BitGold Inc. Announces CAD 51.9 Million Acquisition of GoldMoney.com, Integrating over CAD 1.5 Billion in Assets and over 135,000 User Signups onto the BitGold Aurum Network

From the bitgold.com website :

" ..... Our Corporate By-Laws require the company to secure all physical gold at LBMA or COMEX approved Vaults under fully allocated, segregated, accounts for the benefit of customers. Currently, BitGold Inc. has partnered with The Brink's Company ("BRINKS") one of the most trusted names in vault security with roots tracing back to 1859. .... "

So it's held within the LBMA umbrella for vaulted provenance/quality control and security.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 26, 2015 - 8:00am
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Predator football in the jungle

Predator football in the jungle

The/our competitor trader-sheep have been playing football games in the jungle clearing since the 18th inflection day (month high price). The little lambs pass the golden ball from one to another, running hither and thither as they do it. But nobody really seems to be winning the game they like so much to play. The referees/brokers at the sidelines have been kept ticking over with the low level of activity and look like they won't starve. The market maker bullion banks who seem to own the jungle, clearing, pitch and all, seem to have managed to tilt the pitch slightly at the moment, and the ball and active players are slowly drifting closer towards one side of the pitch as play progresses.

And setup readers have been resting deep in shadows having a well appreciated snooze.

But now it's time to wake up and pay attention. Time to climb out of our comfy hammock, stretch, yawn, breath deeply, sharpen our claws and move carefully towards the long grass at the clearing's edge. Be careful to choose the right side of the clearing/pitch or the action will be too far away to participate. If the price of lamb/gold comes down towards where we want it, and maybe comes into our no escape strike zone, we will have fresh golden fleeced lamb for supper.

A few chops would be nice, or a leg or two, but no need to expose ourselves trying to make a big catch. Certainly never break cover and chase your game in the open! Foolhardy beyond sense to try to take the golden ball itself for several sharpshooter rifles are trained ready to specially treat anyone trying to rip off the owners! We move in the safer margins. There are always plenty of other times and opportunities that will pop up. And though a great opportunity has already passed there might be more, even possibly better ones might be only a cycle or two away. After all - it's the market. It's our never ending game.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 26, 2015 - 8:58am argentus maximus
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... and next arrives the

... and next arrives the deflationary news .....

(courtesy of hammer's post in his thread)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11625098/HSBC-fears-world-recession-with-no-lifeboats-left.html

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 26, 2015 - 12:38pm argentus maximus
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argentus maximus wrote:...

argentus maximus wrote:

... and next arrives the deflationary news .....

(courtesy of hammer's post in his thread)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11625098/HSBC-fears-world-recession-with-no-lifeboats-left.html

The fulcrum of power is shifting, and AM's " the politicians are going to run the bankers under the bus" is happening under our noses under the guise of ultimate criminality and with a little bit more savoir faire than tossing them out of windows and the flows of money are drying up as a result.

Which bank is going to flood the markets with easy money when middle level executives are being indicted for "manipulation" (interest rates, currency rates) and record number of banks are being socked with record fines? Yes, money is drying up like prunes and regulations (including the ones that haven't been on the books yet but will soon come) will make it worse. But is it the politicians who are running these low level pawns under the bus or are they being hand delivered by somebody else?

They are hanging the international bankers out to dry, handing them over to the politicians and the courts, as the fulcrum of power moves away from the hated bankers (now being made scapegoats) and into the hands of people that like a more sort of global money and centralized authority or maybe nationalization that is still controlled by others. And that includes lending decisions drying up the velocity of money.

So ultimately all the people in the metals community crying about the criminality of fractional banking could get what they want as that lending power is taken away from the banks and either given to a more central authority or politicians whose strings can be pulled easier.

Just replace Libor with Forex. You need a reason to shift the fulcrum of power.

https://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/4056/The-LIBOR-Scandal-Is-a-Sham-Engineered-by-Central-Banking-Elites/

The other more popular opinion is that these are just garden variety forms of criminality for absolutely no reason than a few guys in a room want to get rich and doing it on highly traceable technology. I appear to be in an extreme minority.

Then there is the other propaganda meme that AM mentioned, the War on Cash, Digital Money. I am on the fence with that one. Get you all into cash, a last ploy into the metals, really put the hurt on velocity of money as money gets out of banks into your mattress or it's necessary or as somebody else said "TPTB cannot make NIRP bite without getting rid of cash." I think our friend Armstrong is ont he side of digital money. Whatever they lose to hacks they can “reprint” NOt sure of that one. There are a couple very good minds on both sides of the fence with it, so I'll continue to weigh the evidence.

Tue, May 26, 2015 - 1:15pm
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You are harking back to a

You are harking back to a post I made back in November 2013: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/609737#comment-609737

and which I developed further in February 2014 in this blog article: Corporate Asset Stripping, Empires, Leadership and Hidden Organization

It's not a coincidence but I looked those two posts up yesterday to catch my line of thought back then, and now you've referred to one or both of them today. This is what I'm thinking now: Admission of criminality by the banks is a big game changer in the politico-banker partnership.

The implication is that there will be no more money given to banks, the politicians are back to the wall and need what they have and more but don't know where to get it. Invasion of resource countries is reflexive in such a circumstance. But the resource countries are wising up and joining together. Today for example BRIICS and Asian trading blocs form "for business without depending on your consumers needs", tomorrow that morphs into "you invade us once more and we all get together and teach you a lesson you won't forget".

Anybody notice Russia kicking out the (US backed) non government organizations that subvert Russian intentions? "No thanks Mr Salesman we have enough colour revolutions already and don't want to buy another from you today!" It's the evolution of the other side.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 26, 2015 - 1:52pm argentus maximus
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argentus maximus wrote:You

argentus maximus wrote:

You are harking back to a post I made back in November 2013: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/609737#comment-609737

and which I developed further in February 2014 in this blog article: Corporate Asset Stripping, Empires, Leadership and Hidden Organization

It's not a coincidence but I looked those two posts up yesterday to catch my line of thought back then, and now you've referred to one or both of them today.

Yes, and probably not a coincidence that I had been looking for the place you had mentioned the Templars and looking back to see what happened next with money.

The confessions are coming rather effortlessly aren't they?. Harkens back to a time in Ancient Rome and Greece and China where your confessions brought leniency and denial certain death. I wonder what the other choice was?

Tue, May 26, 2015 - 2:08pm argentus maximus
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I meant to post this last

I meant to post this last week. Whether this has any connection to the theme of this video I'll let you decide for yourself.

Bunds Home Time
Tue, May 26, 2015 - 2:58pm
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Really big money has two

Really big money has two nightmares.

1 The people arise and against all odds they overcome the authoritarian class followed by putting big money to confiscation, flight, death. aka French Revolution

2 The ruling class take a look at big money and act against big money before they are given the blame for bad times by the people. aka King Philip of France and the Templars he framed and then burned at the stake, after confiscating their wealth.

When big money gets it right, war based patriotism, removal of rights and authoritarianism reduces the power of the people thus defeating them, and the ruling class can blame rulers of another country for the bad times. During the conflict, big money moves towards the victorious power, having bought their place there long in advance.

I expect everybody that sees this post can look around and observe every single step of that process in action today, no matter where they live.

The modern day version of King Philip of France's unexpected victory over big money (and prolongation of his rule until his death) would be democratic rulers getting together and asserting control over transnational corporations, mercenary-military complex, trusts, and finance while at the same time defending themselves from the hostile actions of subservient foreign powers and their traitorous NGOs within. Not so easy.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 26, 2015 - 3:45pm
Oboma
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Armstrong

Wonder if he is becoming too popular to follow--look at Jim rickards--his calls not amounting to anything. I see Armstrong as a slight bias on gold. Seems to hate the gold bugs. I do to...buy buy buy but they didn't see. Greed has it's play. But armstrong smart guy yet doens't really speak on how to divide your money. Says gold is not a buy yet--reading in between the lines. AM buying along the way/on the downs.

Tue, May 26, 2015 - 4:02pm
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Long time no see, I'm busy

Long time no see, I'm busy reading books and trying my wings in markets. Gold is not that interesting at the moment and that's AM's fault not mine.

This is NOT the year for a crash, a big correction like -40-50%. My EW count does not add up to a crash 2015 imho:

Ok my count isn't perfect, I do not have any trading platform yet. The chart above is OMXS30 and I am trading via a certificate with a high leverage. This is not my prefered cert. but it has good liquidity.

It is a great feeling using your newly received knowledge to trade markets, it's just a lot of fun. I am not too happy with my profit so far, losing a little bit too much by triggered stop/loss events. But I am stubborn and I am not giving up easy.

So here is my latest trade, trying to catch wave c for almost a week now, stopped out 2 times with a 7% loss, but now i think i got the c wave. Lets see how it unfolds :

Tue, May 26, 2015 - 4:16pm Stock_Canines
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It's manipulated. It always

It's manipulated. It always was, even 100 years ago.

Charts worked then and they work now because though everything seems to have changed, nothing has changed in all that time. But back then, as also now, only a minority did/will succeed in trading because that's how it was then, and still is.

So the best way I can put it is that when all look at the same charts, some lookers see a different thing there in the charts. Not the same ones all the time. About 15% get it right for a year because they are inherently bullish or bearish, and that year works in their favour. But over a running three year period less than 10% get it right consistently as conditions change.

So any year 75% lose, 15% profitable making headway with favourable winds in their sails, >10% profitable with prospect of being in the same group next year and the one after. Since profitable traders make money, the odds of the top group being large traders is high, and that makes the odds of a small trader even lower. It's a really tough job to stick at and the difficulty is greatly underestimated by just about everybody that can't do it. So humility is suitable as we all get taught extremely tough and highly painful lessons by the market.

Obviously I would not pass judgment on our site host, only the market and time can do that in an objective fashion. In general I avoid commenting about any other professional analyst and prefer to recommend people keep records of the good and bad parts so they can be balanced in a neutral manner.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, May 26, 2015 - 4:37pm
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Ok the Gold part wasn't

Ok the Gold part wasn't entirely true. It's 50/50 between gold and common stock, here is an interesting chart. If you want some success with your miners, avoid the Venture:

Conclusions:

  1. The best period for gold the venture didn't match the performance of the physical metal
  2. During 2007-2011, gold was +100% and Venture was -40%

Stay away from Venture and buy quality instead. The venture is like looking for a needle in a haystack.

However, maybe Bear creek, Kaminak and Goldstrike is worth a DD?