It's very soon to say.
I can do a couple of things: looking at the daily version, or separate all the cycles and look for "rogues in the pack", and post what I find
For the thread - seeing it displayed can make inversion easier to see if it's getting going. After the weekend I'll post the same chart for spot silver however on it I arrange the price projection is visible in both orthodox and inverted modes.
Not sure how relevant this is, but for consistency of disclosing all PM transactions I'll mention it. I increased silver holdings this week with some modern collectible Ag. A high premium type. About 1% of holdings added, the purchase more to do with availability rather than a perceived precision in timing.
Seems like he's saying keep powder dry folks to 4th qtr. I don't think we are out of the woods yet with gold or silver. Going to need to wait to 2016 probally from what im reading over there and over here.
Thank you. Much appreciated but it was not my intention to make you work harder, as you already do so much for this forum.
It does seem like this year Gold is not going to do anything. I see no one called the oil downturn. No one on this board. Gold as has been mentioned will not take off this year. It's bottom is not seen in the charts yet. Someone mentions 2016 which is probally the case. There is no more hope for this year for gold. Just sit back and count your loses
I like Avi Gilburt, but this statement gives me a lot of pause, and he keeps reiterating this like a broken record.
"This mass form of progression and regression seems to be hard wired deep within the psyche all living creatures. This is what we have come to know today as the driver of the "herding principle." And the movements within these herds seem to turn at Fibonacci ratios, which is the reason for my accuracy within the metals market, and not because I am tied into the “cartel,” as the commenter above incorrectly suggested.
Humans are hard wired for herding within their basal ganglia and limbic system within their brain, which is a biological response they share with all animals. In fact, in a study performed by Dr. Joseph Ledoux, a psychologist at the Center for Neural Science at NYU, he noted that emotion and the reaction caused by such emotion occur independent and prior to, the ability of the brain to reason."
But at least he can acknowledge this.
"Now, I will admit that there could be certain attempts at moving the smaller markets at smaller degrees by some dominant players in those markets. However, I do not believe it is anywhere near the extent to which these “manipulation theorists” would have you believe, and certainly not to the extent which would cause silver to lose 70% of its value from its 2011 highs. "
Now it is accurate that the brain processes emotion prior to rational processes. But this a universal phenomenon that affects ALL human beings. So if one is to argue that "the herd" functions this way, one can also argue that the aggressors in the market function equally. The so called "dominant players" in the market are just as ruled by their greed and fear as the herd is. The difference is that they are more powerful, stronger, faster and can galvanize these qualities when it sees fit, just like the "cheetah" that moves at Lamborghini acceleration rates, and seizes its prey among the "herd", time and time again.
Have you ever seen a cheetah eaten by a gazelle? They both want to survive and they are both hungry.
So when Gilburt acknowledges that "attempts at moving smaller markets at smaller degrees" exist, I have to beg the question, is it smaller or just unknowable? If you look at how algos are programmed, they are precisely programmed in short, medium and longer term frames to capitalize on that primitive part of the brain that we call the limbic system and basal ganglia that regulate fear, greed, elation, compulsion etc.
And the market makers do because they can. We in the meantime as AM says have to work with our emotions, recognize them and try and let our sentient rather than our primitive selves guide us as best we can. It can be done but takes much time and training. As AM stated just the other day, the market taught me long ago to be "patient".
In the face of Friday's "apparent" collapse, patience is needed now more than ever.
I also need to highlight that the above is largely irrelevant where trading principles are concerned. One still needs to operate within the system at hand, understand the market, charts etc. So whether manipulation exists is a moot point. I just don't accept the argument above to support the notion that it doesn't exist.
The OIL downturn? This is a gold thread!
Count my losses? I just can't do that because the transactions I have documented here have created a position which is fluctuating between minus half percent and plus 7% at prices during the first month of this year.
So there are no losses (at time of writing) to count.
But you may someday be right and gold may someday be lower. It's price will always fluctuate! That is guaranteed. And of course the current fluctuation is not over for about another 30 days.
Upon reading my above post it occurred to me that I should have added I measure my portfolio in Euros! British Pound Sterling based readers of "Setup" will have pretty much the same P&L as myself at the moment, but in the USD precious metals performance looks a bit worse for now. (On the other hand US buyers have had more time to avail of better prices - but that's not a P&L account positive factor until later.)
This miner is ignoring new lows in Gold and the pattern is almost 20 months old.
It is an interesting phenomena, I mean a gold miner is dependent of the gold price, but in this case it looks a little bit different, the lows are synchronized. To be continued ...
The latest rally was Ok and I don't know if it's over yet? It probably is after the break of 1250 level. 1307-1140=$167 from 5th November, that's good but I was waiting for 1347. Hopefully next time we break 1347 + 1375 + 1435 that would be nice.
just dropping by to say hello. I seem to remember years back when silver was trading around 28 and on its way down that a broker or x-broker on this site attempted to excoriate me for some comments I had made regarding the good possibility that silver would crash thru 18 and head south in search of a bottom possibly around 15 or as low as 10. I don't know why I recall this now as it has been years and I don't trade the stuff anymore or much of anything for that matter and while in Asia I never checked the price of metals and had no interest.
I am in full agreement with the assessment of Paul Craig Roberts that the metals markets are manipulated routinely and shamelessly in the wee hours of the morning when volume is very light in the futures. There is just no other way to interpret the charts and the radical drops in prices from short selling that are seen therein imo but people I'm sure will always be able to find other imagined explanations. The metals won't return to bull form until there is enough fear and uncertainty regarding the Empire so until then this period is best described as purgatory imo. Im curios as to what Armstrong is predicting this year. A triggered political event that drains confidence in the U.S. system or a military event of course is what is necessary.
anyway hello and good will to all. I see Redwood is still here and I wonder about Pailin and some of the others and send my best. What happened to the fellow who's pic was Keith Richards, its been years? take care everyone, SW
What a pleasant surprise. Hope you will visit again. I have so missed your eloquent posts. :) Ask Pailin about Rico's departure. Who knows maybe he'll return too.
… worthwhile interview with Felix Zulauf when time permits (apx 20min) – his cautious perspective around our slow-motion, global financial / currency crisis and possible pathway for gold & silver … ‘when the storm hits’ (late 2016 from his perspective), five years of ‘crisis’ (!)
Agree with his expectation that commodities (ex precious metals) face numerous headwinds given the sluggish global economy & interventionist policies of ‘The Golden Age of Central Banks’…
... back to my popcorn
Ivars, for your interest and perusal. He's a gold promoter of sorts but his missives always make for an interesting read. I just wish he were right on the price for once. (:-) Cheers.
The above subject is a statement made my A.M. some time ago.
Cottonbelt/Slosson, take a look on Kitco at the charts for 1999 and 2001. A summary of the price action is as follows.
July 20, 1999: Fix low at 252.80
August 26, 1999: Historic low at 252.20 (bid)
October 5, 1999: Fix high at 326.25; representing a 30% price increase.
NEW BULL MARKET? NOT!!!
From those highs we went right back down to an intra-day low of 252.50 bid on February 16, 2001.
Prices did not make any progress on the upside until the low PM fix of 255.90 on April 2, 2001.
Then FINALLY! a new bull market; but prices were static for about one year, and 9-months from the lows in 1999.
So, it appears quite probably that we may not see any upside progress for quite some time using this comparison.
China is supporting Russia only as proxy in the fight for position with West before next round of negotiations about the reserve currency; there is no inherent alignment of interests between China and Russia; on the contrary, China is after demise of Russian Empire as everyone else.
When the Empire is crumbling nothing can stop it ; violent convulsions does not change the overall direction of process and yes its still Russian Empire who will disappear in WWIV.
With Armstrong's 'computer' calling the January high to the day, I think it foolish to ignore his call for bottom in late 2015/early 2016. Another year of declining prices and miner swoons. It's all fairly tedious. Especially with the stock market hitting new high after new high.
Be careful about putting too much reliance on any particular analyst. If we get through to the 2nd week of March without making a new low in PMs it will be very expensive for gold bears to get it back down again.
...and the Fed does NOT have an unlimited ability to spend! Their credibility is hanging by a thread right now.
I would like to remind about the uncanny ability of the gold market to frustrate the strategies of the greater number of participants. A genuine long term low will not likely be used by many bulls. Now casting my mind back to before Xmas, I seem to remember many voices calling for gold to plummet after it broke down - falsely - to the downside. I assume those guys didn't buy November and then bought higher late January and are the very longs being tested right now.
Now the likelihood of a low Sept-Oct 2015 is reasonably good, but a lower - the lowest - low? I'd rather be already long and adding more if it gets low enough to satisfy. But I have said several times, don't count on that. The eight year cycle low is an erratic thing, not always making it's low on the final intermediate downswing. There is an article in the AM Blog about that, and showing the 3 or 4 lows comprising a typical eight year cycle bottoming sequence.