The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Feb 9, 2015 - 3:13pm
Solsson
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The Rally

The latest rally was Ok and I don't know if it's over yet? It probably is after the break of 1250 level. 1307-1140=$167 from 5th November, that's good but I was waiting for 1347. Hopefully next time we break 1347 + 1375 + 1435 that would be nice.

Mon, Feb 9, 2015 - 4:06pm
SilverWealth
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hello

just dropping by to say hello. I seem to remember years back when silver was trading around 28 and on its way down that a broker or x-broker on this site attempted to excoriate me for some comments I had made regarding the good possibility that silver would crash thru 18 and head south in search of a bottom possibly around 15 or as low as 10. I don't know why I recall this now as it has been years and I don't trade the stuff anymore or much of anything for that matter and while in Asia I never checked the price of metals and had no interest.

I am in full agreement with the assessment of Paul Craig Roberts that the metals markets are manipulated routinely and shamelessly in the wee hours of the morning when volume is very light in the futures. There is just no other way to interpret the charts and the radical drops in prices from short selling that are seen therein imo but people I'm sure will always be able to find other imagined explanations. The metals won't return to bull form until there is enough fear and uncertainty regarding the Empire so until then this period is best described as purgatory imo. Im curios as to what Armstrong is predicting this year. A triggered political event that drains confidence in the U.S. system or a military event of course is what is necessary.

anyway hello and good will to all. I see Redwood is still here and I wonder about Pailin and some of the others and send my best. What happened to the fellow who's pic was Keith Richards, its been years? take care everyone, SW

Mon, Feb 9, 2015 - 4:22pm
redwood
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Silverwealth

What a pleasant surprise. Hope you will visit again. I have so missed your eloquent posts. :) Ask Pailin about Rico's departure. Who knows maybe he'll return too.

Wed, Feb 11, 2015 - 3:25pm
Cottonbelt21
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Fair Weather Captains ...

… worthwhile interview with Felix Zulauf when time permits (apx 20min) – his cautious perspective around our slow-motion, global financial / currency crisis and possible pathway for gold & silver … ‘when the storm hits’ (late 2016 from his perspective), five years of ‘crisis’ (!)

Agree with his expectation that commodities (ex precious metals) face numerous headwinds given the sluggish global economy & interventionist policies of ‘The Golden Age of Central Banks’…

https://kingworldnews.com/felix-zulauf-2-1-15/

... back to my popcorn

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 3:32am
yangster
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(No subject)

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 8:20am
eclectic
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FOR IVARS:

Ivars, for your interest and perusal. He's a gold promoter of sorts but his missives always make for an interesting read. I just wish he were right on the price for once. (:-) Cheers.

https://blog.milesfranklin.com/how-far-is-too-far

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 8:41am (Reply to #7115)
eclectic
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IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN WE THINK?

The above subject is a statement made my A.M. some time ago.

Cottonbelt/Slosson, take a look on Kitco at the charts for 1999 and 2001. A summary of the price action is as follows.

July 20, 1999: Fix low at 252.80

August 26, 1999: Historic low at 252.20 (bid)

October 5, 1999: Fix high at 326.25; representing a 30% price increase.

NEW BULL MARKET? NOT!!!

From those highs we went right back down to an intra-day low of 252.50 bid on February 16, 2001.

Prices did not make any progress on the upside until the low PM fix of 255.90 on April 2, 2001.

Then FINALLY! a new bull market; but prices were static for about one year, and 9-months from the lows in 1999.

So, it appears quite probably that we may not see any upside progress for quite some time using this comparison.

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 11:51am (Reply to #7117)
ivars
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China is supporting Russia

China is supporting Russia only as proxy in the fight for position with West before next round of negotiations about the reserve currency; there is no inherent alignment of interests between China and Russia; on the contrary, China is after demise of Russian Empire as everyone else.

When the Empire is crumbling nothing can stop it ; violent convulsions does not change the overall direction of process and yes its still Russian Empire who will disappear in WWIV.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 1:09pm
Stock_Canines
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Armstrong

With Armstrong's 'computer' calling the January high to the day, I think it foolish to ignore his call for bottom in late 2015/early 2016. Another year of declining prices and miner swoons. It's all fairly tedious. Especially with the stock market hitting new high after new high.

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 2:22pm (Reply to #7120)
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Be careful about putting too

Be careful about putting too much reliance on any particular analyst. If we get through to the 2nd week of March without making a new low in PMs it will be very expensive for gold bears to get it back down again.

...and the Fed does NOT have an unlimited ability to spend! Their credibility is hanging by a thread right now.

I would like to remind about the uncanny ability of the gold market to frustrate the strategies of the greater number of participants. A genuine long term low will not likely be used by many bulls. Now casting my mind back to before Xmas, I seem to remember many voices calling for gold to plummet after it broke down - falsely - to the downside. I assume those guys didn't buy November and then bought higher late January and are the very longs being tested right now.

Now the likelihood of a low Sept-Oct 2015 is reasonably good, but a lower - the lowest - low? I'd rather be already long and adding more if it gets low enough to satisfy. But I have said several times, don't count on that. The eight year cycle low is an erratic thing, not always making it's low on the final intermediate downswing. There is an article in the AM Blog about that, and showing the 3 or 4 lows comprising a typical eight year cycle bottoming sequence.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 2:52pm (Reply to #7121)
eclectic
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A.M.

I was probably too impetuous (and early) in calling for 1525-1800 this year. One year and 9 months added on to the lows at 1130 in November brings up a time frame around August, 2016. I judged that Wave A of II had been completed at the January lows; with a 'failure' to reach new lows on Jan 2nd. That analysis looks suspect with the big down move last Friday. So, it remains to be seen if the moves up from November are part of a beginning diagonal (5-up) or a flat (3-up)? If we see new lows it may be in the form of Wyckoff's 'spring formation'; this making the ending of Wave A of II still having been formed in November, 2014. Excellent post A.M.

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 3:37pm (Reply to #7120)
SilverRunNW
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RE: Armstrong

Armstrong calling January high? Who are you kidding? Everybody called the January high swing and it was "due" for a pullback on the never ending up & down moves of the market.

Yeah, keep calling for new lows. Seems bullish to me!

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 4:19pm (Reply to #7121)
Solsson
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argentus maximus wrote: Be

argentus maximus wrote:

Be careful about putting too much reliance on any particular analyst...
...and the Fed does NOT have an unlimited ability to spend!...
I assume those guys didn't buy November ...
but a lower - the lowest - low? I'd rather be already long, I have said several times, don't count on that...

+10

In a nice gesture to this thread and the creator I am going to present my Shamrock Trade tomorrow

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 5:29pm (Reply to #7121)
Green Lantern
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argentus maximus wrote:There

argentus maximus wrote:

There is an article in the AM Blog about that, and showing the 3 or 4 lows comprising a typical eight year cycle bottoming sequence.

As luck would have it, I was rereading and watching your 8 year cycle work about two hours before you posted after the mention of Armstrong again. Armstrong is such an 8 year type of guy and you've warned us multiple times in being dogmatic in following calls. I delineated his previous calls three or four pages back for a reason.

A couple of things popped out with your article. One being how the lows come in before the cycle low, retest, often followed by swift kick in the ass to the up side. The first low has already landed and as AM said a just a couple of posts ago the Euro/Gold train might have left the station unless it comes back to pick up a stranded passenger or two. And if it does, I expect more long timers coming back for a visit. Yet that low is NOT bearish despite all the bearish sentiment if AM's analogues of past 8 year cycles is correct.

AM also pointed out that there other things going on besides the 8 year cycle that gold isn't fitting neatly into it. I didn't get what those other things were but just noted it. Because if somebodies predictions is being based totally on it and there are "other" things going on, I'm not taking it to heart.

Now the overwhelming bearish attitude that flew in here this week from sporadic posters and the amount of endorsement they got despite the ground work that has been laid here especially the part by Paul Craig Roberts and who is always a compelling read but have seen nothing from him that would indicate he has knowledge of timing the markets. (toss that analysis out immediately). And the whole idea that gold and silver won't continue to do anything despite manipulation after three years of discussion on that subject???? I have no idea what PCR's track record is with timing this market, but I do know AM's. Since when do the folks in the setup give a hoot about manipulation when timing the market???

My smell detector is telling me that people are not interested in the lows anymore as buying opportunities because everytime they arrive, everybody goes bearish. Especially a person who says I'm out of here for another couple of more years and everybody agree's that's the righteous path. That's not a person who is interested in buying the lows. It might take that long for him to feel satisfied with previous purchases but that's not the deck of cards being dealt.

The horses are now being let in the gate, Greece (parting ways or not?), Congressional approval to go to war with ISIS and maybe they'll be more disappointed to the downside next G-V inflection point or rockets red glare and bombs bursting in the night might land at the same time. If I recall correctly, next set of important inflection points. End of Feb, early march?

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 6:54pm
Safety Dan
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@Green Lantern

Yesterday I watched both of AM's past videos he posted looking for that 8 year cycle info. Now as I remember it was a post for a thread he made. Isn't that correct?

-Edit Found the gold post: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6069/gold-2ndterm-us-presidents

​and the silver post: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6144/where-long-term-silver-cycles-a...

I still keep his videos handy and enjoy watching them.

Thu, Feb 12, 2015 - 9:45pm (Reply to #7126)
Green Lantern
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Safety Dan wrote:Yesterday I

Safety Dan wrote:

Yesterday I watched both of AM's past videos he posted looking for that 8 year cycle info. Now as I remember it was a post for a thread he made. Isn't that correct?

-Edit Found the gold post: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6069/gold-2ndterm-us-presidents

​and the silver post: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6144/where-long-term-silver-cycles-are-now

I still keep his videos handy and enjoy watching them.

Yes, going back is a good habit until you internalize the concepts. Also, bookmark the last few months of posts so when something arrives which he discussed a few months, nobody should be shocked or go into a reactive bearish mode. If you are going to read Armstrong, which I do, it is useful comparing commentary.

And as you know Safety Dan, he pointed out that your posts in the thread with the early Presidents as being useful. As a result, I reread all those posts. The gift that gave again. It's a Sherlock Holmes type task looking for useful historical analogues.

Fri, Feb 13, 2015 - 12:17pm (Reply to #7127)
eclectic
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8-YEAR CYCLE DISCUSSION

Yeah, that's the ongoing problem w/those pesky cycles. Will they arrive early or late? I think GL provided an excellent insight to this dilemma when he said that a cycle will 'turn/flip' whenever the trend reverses.

Fri, Feb 13, 2015 - 1:04pm
eclectic
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SPEAKING OF TRENDS.....

Fri, Feb 13, 2015 - 1:12pm
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The 8 year provides the clue

The 8 year provides the clue as to underlying trend due to it's multiple lows. In an uptrend the first low is the lowest of the set, but in a downtrend the final low will be lowest. If November last was one such we have a long time before the next one. Case not yet proven

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 13, 2015 - 1:57pm
Solsson
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mmm, Rick Rule also bearish

mmm, Rick Rule also bearish right now. In his newest newsletter he stated that "we have not seen capitulation yet, end of Oct was close but no cigar". I don't know, but with all due respect for Mr Rule's knowledge and experience. How much lower do you want to go from here: