The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Jan 22, 2015 - 7:13pm Green Lantern
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analysis

I suspect that there are a hardcore of followers of this site that really appreciate the work that Argentus does.

I will hold my hand up. I read this thread (I ignore the rest of TFMR), I read Armstrongs blog and Sinclairs site.

I read Armstrong and Sinclair because both have at some point in the past been kind and very respectful towards me and that goes a long way. I believe that both are genuine people although they view the world really differently. I do not always get to read the news. Some months I could go over a week with literally no news other than the content of this site, Armstrongs site and Sinclairs site. Between these three sources, I have found that pretty much everything I need to know is on there.

So analysis takes different forms. Both Armstrong and Sinclair work in tandem to provide me with a fantastic array of news analysis which goes hand in hand with this site.

Bo P is an interesting character. He reminds me a bit of a former Russian poet that some know. He makes calls that are really out there. When he is hot, he is really hot. When he gets it wrong - oh boy does he get it wrong. JS gives him huge respect. I have masses of time for JS so I will read Bo's stuff because Jim is one really sharp cookie and he reads Bo's stuff.

Different people get different things from analysis. Some people will not get the way Argentus puts things. Its all about what we hear and see when someone speaks and writes. If we are on a similar wavelength to someone, then the lightbulbs go wild. Otherwise we simply might not get it.

Thu, Jan 22, 2015 - 7:15pm GoldMania3000
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goldmania 3000

Hat tip and really agree.

Thu, Jan 22, 2015 - 7:15pm GoldMania3000
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goldmania 3000

EDIT - Ooopss. Double post!

Thu, Jan 22, 2015 - 7:29pm
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@ Argentus

I have a file, I'll email it to you, but I think it is by month.

Nonetheless, the yen high will probably be the same date as the dollar high in 1980.

Thu, Jan 22, 2015 - 8:26pm
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@ Argentus

File sent to you.

21st Jan 1980.

Apologies everyone, the all time high was 203,368 yen, not 302k as mentioned up-thread. (This might not have been the intra day high either, but the fix instead.... but the dollar value in the same file was $850, which I think is the figure we all recognise).

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 1:52am
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If you are a plebian buying

If you are a plebian buying gold in Japan, the current average cost for an ounce (coin) from a recognized dealer is 181,265 yen - 1530 usd 1019 gbp (which includes premium and the 8% consumption tax - The 8% consumption tax you get back when you sell though so effectively it is negligible by the way) as of right now, regardless of what the charts say. I don't know what the tax rate was back in 1980 for gold.

If you buy 31.1g in bar form it will still cost you 172,000 yen - 1451 usd 969 gbp

If you sell an ounce, you get 164,963 yen - 1392 usd 929 gbp at a shop (or less from the real rip off merchants if you are stupid enough to sell to them).

There is no point ordering from abroad as the rip off bank or forex exchange rate and transfer costs pretty much wipe out the point of doing it to make it cheaper- plus anything over 200,000 yen attracts customs tax.

N.B when calculating the usd and gbp numbers, I only used google. The actual spread of rates between buying and selling used by bucket shops and banks are obviously much greater if one were to use the services to buy anything abroad.

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 3:59am Green Lantern
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Green Lantern wrote: I have

Green Lantern wrote:

I have no idea how many people view this forum or Armstrong or Sinclair or for what reason but if it's not for the accuracy of their analysis, than I'm clueless. There should be hordes of people in here soley based on the timing. I'm not advertising for him, just I really really don't get it.

I think you do get it really, you are just saying you don't to express your frustration - I do the same. People in general want to satisfy their most immediate emotional needs, not behave optimally and rationally according to their goals and situation. AM does all you can do, which is give some probabilities and alternative scenarios and then it's up to the reader to use that to suit themselves - this is as good as they can hope for.

But even though consciously they may know this is all you can hope for, subconsciously they still crave "Event X is going to happen with 100% certainty, so buy at price $y with stop at $z and take massive profit and buy cocaine/prostitutes after price hits $w". This is not possible but looms nevertheless - and is why people drift away from AM and look for posts of people like our poor mate Bo who express (fake) certainty. We've all been there and all do it to some degree - but it's tough to break this habit.

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 4:35am
ivars
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This was quite

This was quite accurate:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/632623#comment-632623

The peak on 22nd, I mean. Gold reached 1308 yesterday. It could be of course not the end of ascent, but a pause happened as expected; gold also hit-not quite- some resistance in downtrending flag.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 7:14am
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Basis the Euro

In Euro terms, currently at 1157/oz, gold is now above the level it was at, just before the April 2013 waterfall decline. It has reversed the entire decline from that point. The same applies to Canadian and Australian dollars.

Basis the yen, gold is knocking at the door of it's 35 year highs.

The current drama is not in dollars, and the question is as to which currency is providing the effective gaps and resistance. There are critical inflections all over the place, when all major currencies are taken into account.

I guess this is a consequence of currency chaos. Each has a relationship to gold, and some are in a bear phase while others are bullish.

To those thinking in USD, CHF and GBP, we have still not recovered from the April 2013 waterfall (though GBP is close to taking out some important horizontal resistance). Which basket of currencies will now have the greatest gravitational pull on gold? This will be quite a contest.

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 7:39am Byzantium
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Thanks Byz.Next resonance on

Thanks Byz.

Next resonance on that timeframe: April-May 2015

I'll work it out more thoroughly later.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 8:07am
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A heads up to regular

A heads up to regular readers:

Video unavailable

Also not to miss:

German repatriation - trainspotters only

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 9:34am argentus maximus
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Obligation Fulfilled

Hi AM,my heartfelt thanks to you for the 140 recordings and countless invaluable postings. This forum is one place which I never miss to visit on a daily basis. Thanks for all the guidance ann would really hope to continue receiving your posts in the future. All the best and God bless.

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 10:16am
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Looks like today will be ugly

Looks like today will be ugly and most likely into next week as well.

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 10:50am redwood
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redwood wrote:Looks like

redwood wrote:

Looks like today will be ugly and most likely into next week as well.

we have to cool down the indices, plus option expiration next week. Pretty expected, I would say.

The only question is how low we go, whether 1250 (roughly 50% of the last rally) or lower.

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 11:37am
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@Redwood

So are you going to be the one to hold our hand, and call every downward move? How kind of you to volunteer. Where would we be without you.

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 12:09pm
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tlims77

No for heavens sake it is not AM it's Paul or belangp. Yes. I was a little bit shocked at first

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 2:12pm
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Dear AM

Thank you for your thoughtful unsefishness. Your words ring true for me. If I could be so bold, I would like to be able to watch and learn in the future. Thank you for completing your obligation. Godspeed in all you do.

Your secret admirer,

smcpvalu

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 2:28pm
brokerk22
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Miners

are getting taken to the rack here with gold and silver down modestly.

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 2:31pm
brokerk22
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on

no volume as well.

Fri, Jan 23, 2015 - 2:34pm smcpvalu
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140 Videos

No Irish accent. Not AM.

AM you do however totally rock. Thank you for being here

Edit typo. Cat on the keyboard & too early in the morning...