Thank you for the update. Ivars pointed out the Fib date of Jan 22, 2015. The same date appears in my cycle research. I thought it might be an interm bottom, but it appears to likely be a top.
The end of the month price action appears to be setting up for large movements as you have pointed out. A brief pull back and then continue upwards? What do you see?
Indeed it seems to be a top; bottom was when previous long term Fibo sequence converged in mid January; now the question remains how low will gold drop back ..could be a final one ..but I would still doubt real uncertainty about monetary system-it looks more like rapid but preplanned sequence of events- until David Rockefeller is still alive and, presumably , capable, and CIA is still guarding him. When the Emperor falls and the fight for succession begins, then we shall see the monetary uncertainty -> mess that will bring gold UP in USD.
Not sure about ECB QE either; but if is comes, it may be as gold negative as FED QE.
Finally I understood why the Swiss depegged:
Same USA war with Russia strategy continuation, as with oil prices. rocks still have a say in CB decisions all over the world.
Little BoP calling for an aggressive move.
Presumably you get an aggressive move up to finsih the up move.
Makes sense to have a quick wash out the day before.
Not convinced 22nd is end of up move. But its coming. Because all moves end :-)
I would agree with AM in that this move does not seem done yet. Kind of hard to call a top when gold is down <0.1% and silver is up 1.3% on the day.
A little consolidation is necessary, we've been moving so fast. This is a nice pause at expected resistance levels. Good opportunity for offloading some short-sighted longs, and fresh shorts to be entered for the next round of short squeezes.
We've reached my initial target, but I was expecting a bit more decisive retreat in price. Something just "feels" different about the metals lately although that is not a basis to make decisions on. I know I'm lousy at day trading and 90% of the time I take profits too soon. Copper and oil seem to be consolidating at these levels, so I'm going to sit tight. I bought deep enough that I have quite a bit of leeway to wait out a few days of market indecision.
My Jul 2013 Comex Gold forecast is running towards the end of it's period.
Just to mention that. But there is an unfulfilled aspect which was the forecast implied the taking out of the trading range high in the final upwards swing. We have taken out the down trending resistance, but the horizontal price levels are not yet broken.
Basis the continuation CMX contract chart those three highs are three separate levels not one price level. They are under 1435, 1393 and 1347. They are now the targets for this upswing in US dollars cross with gold for that particular forecast. Hitting even only one ends the forecast, coming to the end of the allotted time also ends the forecast whether the upswing makes the price level or not.
And here is the chart which has stayed relatively "tight" for such a long time, 18 months now:
For clarification, the ending price of the forecast is not the important thing, it's the ending price relative to the higher pivots of the trading range of 2014. Only a few days left for this one! But I have done plenty of fresh work since Jul 2013 I assure you.
I am glad that I found this thread two years ago, looking forward to another interesting year.
Thank you for the update AM will do some thinking about how to trade my miners. They act in very different ways, it's almost like eleven different prices of gold.
So Little Bo P says up up and up. Whilst he is busy dreaming about Infinity and beyond with Buzz Lightyear Armstrong does what Armstrong does. He bashes the people who saved his backside (although he has re-written history on that one) and says it is time for a direction change and gives you the up numbers and the down numbers.
Argentus offers a sobering thought. Piece it together and what do you get....
1) The chance that Bo P is right for a few days and we see a big up move to challenge 1350, take out Armstrongs daily and weekly but falter at this monthly close one next week?
2) Like 1 except it presses on to Argentus target number 2.
3) A reversal - which isnt going to be slow.
Luckily we know pretty soon. Probably a day. I like the look of 1. You get a move like we have had and it feels as though it needs to go further. I'm not sold on 3. There are a lot of resistance lines that are now support. Unless the dollar is going up by 30% in 13 mins. Maybe that is one for Argentus to figure out. When does the dollar have its parabolic spike up? :-)
Either way - the top is near. Look at the volume of posts on here. Look at the volume the last time I commented on how quiet it was. What a difference a week of going up makes.....
After this run up and side ways trading for the entire year Excitment will be over very soon
Happy New Year boys and girls. What a start to the year.
With regards to gold:
A lot of my miners are showing so much strength it's unbelievable... If they start consolidating this huge move, I will be buying more....
Drahgi tonight, gonna be a disappointmont even more than the leaks....
Been reading, great gear guys!
Just A Regular Guy
S&P 500 Monthly
I know it's a crappy photo, but I wonder what happens when the current selling trend on the -DX (i.e. red line) breaks thru that lower red line where it's kinda sitting. Things could get very interesting! (Note the +DX - i.e. green line, i.e. BUYING STRENGTH trend is getting weaker!).
I'd post a chart of one of the miners I own, but I'm kinda blocked by the site so this chat will do it, but essentially it's run up about 150% from its lows (I averaged in about 10% higher than the current all time low!! ) and as I was hammering on about companies trading below NTA, it still is (AND HAS ZERO DEBT!!!). Could be a 10-20 bagger imo, maybe more if this gold rally gets retardedly out of hand.... One of the better indicators I use, Twiggs Money Flow, is so f'kin bullish on the daily/weekly/monthly it's insane. It has ripped from a -0.17 to a +0.3 (the Twiggs Money Flow RESPECTS THE ZERO!!!) on the daily chart in about 2 weeks and the monthly has gone from -0.42 to -0.08 today (comparing last month to this month). I am getting very excited!
I am readying dry powder for what comes after coming run down of PM price. If it (run down) does not happen I most likely will not trade, since then I have had totally wrong assumptions for the whole last year...Or then we shall enter some bull phase without the last dip..I wonder.
Can Gold Continue to Rise?
Posted on January 22, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
We need a closing ABOVE 1305 to keep gold neutral right now. Additional key resistance begins at 1310, 1319, 1321, and 1326. It may prove to be very difficult for gold to rise beyond this seasonal high in the face of a very strong dollar. Caution is the word that applies to gold right now.
Look at yesterdays post for Armstrong. He said that 1298 was the daily bullish reversal.
Now today he says 1305 is needed to keep gold neutral. So not sure which day the 1305 relates to.
This is why I like Argentus. You need to be a full time Armstrong watcher to try and keep up with him. With Argentus - you just get the key info well in advance. Sometimes you get inversions but the dates are the dates and its easy to follow.
I'll have to agree with you on that one re Armstrong's forecasts being confusing. If you try to look at the charts he posts, his method of expressing what he intends people to get is very poor. His labels for all the different cycles mean nothing to most people so only people who have studied his method can benefit possibly from them...I for one find them confusing. I have to agree with you 100% foscotanner, that AM's method of presenting the information is much clearer and makes much more sense to me. That's why I'm here reading it daily.
I'm sorry but none of the people's forecast people are posting and discussing comes close to this work of art. Or am I hallucinating? I can't refold a dress shirt this accurately even when I take it out of the bag and the creases are still visible. Forgot about putting the pins back.
Yeah, looks like he was a day off here and there on the market turns and price levels seem to have a mind of their own from time to time but in terms of timing and market direction, and future price levels to look for, nobody is posting anything close to this kind of stuff. If somebody is doing it, bring it on but these are the charts we should be talking about and dates and price levels we should be talking about.
Only a few days left for this one! But I have done plenty of fresh work since Jul 2013 I assure you.
i.e Ya know damn well he's got another chart out 6 months at least as accurate as the last 12 month track record. I have no idea how many people view this forum or Armstrong or Sinclair or for what reason but if it's not for the accuracy of their analysis, than I'm clueless. There should be hordes of people in here soley based on the timing. I'm not advertising for him, just I really really don't get it.
Gold in yen is near it's 35 year high of 157,749 (their high was not in 2011 but 2013). This looks to be very noteworthy. Not least, that high was just before the April 2013 PM smash and massacre, that launched this miserable PM bear market. Did the yen price comprise a factor in this event?
Note that the all time high in yen was in 1980, at 302k yen per ounce. That was when the yen was much weaker. Many pundits are just plain ignorant of that, because they assume that a 20 year chart tells all, but ok. We are now near that 35 year yen price high. I guess we could call that a formidable resistance level, but if we clear it, what then? If it was to some extent the reason for the April 2013 smash, then TPTB are now right back where they were. Will they have to smash it again, or have they lost that fight?
Do you have the exact date of the 35 year old, ie all time high for gold-yen?
I can do stuff with that.
I may not be able to fully articulate a compelling or persuasive case for my position; since I am also under the weather; but I think the simple answer is that most of us do not fully trust ourselves. For example I know that I have been inaccurate in being able to predict the future; but that's another can of worms since successful trading has noting to do with being able to predict the future.
would just look at the chart and see, not think about it, just see how could one argue what was said over a year ago and what happened. they align perfectly. Most people are in denial and can't see what's in front of them
If it's dark blue and some one is going to argue with you it's light blue it's not worth the agrument. they just don't want to see.
It's all been documented very clearly and not even worth discussing why people don't see it. every day i run into people who have their views; it's just their views and has nothing to do with reality
I've had the privlage of speaking to AM privately now on many occaisions. Well worth's one time as there are things that he showed me that have boggled my mind. Will never probally be shared on this forum...but that's what it is.