S&P 500 Monthly
I know it's a crappy photo, but I wonder what happens when the current selling trend on the -DX (i.e. red line) breaks thru that lower red line where it's kinda sitting. Things could get very interesting! (Note the +DX - i.e. green line, i.e. BUYING STRENGTH trend is getting weaker!).
I'd post a chart of one of the miners I own, but I'm kinda blocked by the site so this chat will do it, but essentially it's run up about 150% from its lows (I averaged in about 10% higher than the current all time low!! ) and as I was hammering on about companies trading below NTA, it still is (AND HAS ZERO DEBT!!!). Could be a 10-20 bagger imo, maybe more if this gold rally gets retardedly out of hand.... One of the better indicators I use, Twiggs Money Flow, is so f'kin bullish on the daily/weekly/monthly it's insane. It has ripped from a -0.17 to a +0.3 (the Twiggs Money Flow RESPECTS THE ZERO!!!) on the daily chart in about 2 weeks and the monthly has gone from -0.42 to -0.08 today (comparing last month to this month). I am getting very excited!
I am readying dry powder for what comes after coming run down of PM price. If it (run down) does not happen I most likely will not trade, since then I have had totally wrong assumptions for the whole last year...Or then we shall enter some bull phase without the last dip..I wonder.
Can Gold Continue to Rise?
Posted on January 22, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
We need a closing ABOVE 1305 to keep gold neutral right now. Additional key resistance begins at 1310, 1319, 1321, and 1326. It may prove to be very difficult for gold to rise beyond this seasonal high in the face of a very strong dollar. Caution is the word that applies to gold right now.
Look at yesterdays post for Armstrong. He said that 1298 was the daily bullish reversal.
Now today he says 1305 is needed to keep gold neutral. So not sure which day the 1305 relates to.
This is why I like Argentus. You need to be a full time Armstrong watcher to try and keep up with him. With Argentus - you just get the key info well in advance. Sometimes you get inversions but the dates are the dates and its easy to follow.
I'll have to agree with you on that one re Armstrong's forecasts being confusing. If you try to look at the charts he posts, his method of expressing what he intends people to get is very poor. His labels for all the different cycles mean nothing to most people so only people who have studied his method can benefit possibly from them...I for one find them confusing. I have to agree with you 100% foscotanner, that AM's method of presenting the information is much clearer and makes much more sense to me. That's why I'm here reading it daily.
I'm sorry but none of the people's forecast people are posting and discussing comes close to this work of art. Or am I hallucinating? I can't refold a dress shirt this accurately even when I take it out of the bag and the creases are still visible. Forgot about putting the pins back.
Yeah, looks like he was a day off here and there on the market turns and price levels seem to have a mind of their own from time to time but in terms of timing and market direction, and future price levels to look for, nobody is posting anything close to this kind of stuff. If somebody is doing it, bring it on but these are the charts we should be talking about and dates and price levels we should be talking about.
Only a few days left for this one! But I have done plenty of fresh work since Jul 2013 I assure you.
i.e Ya know damn well he's got another chart out 6 months at least as accurate as the last 12 month track record. I have no idea how many people view this forum or Armstrong or Sinclair or for what reason but if it's not for the accuracy of their analysis, than I'm clueless. There should be hordes of people in here soley based on the timing. I'm not advertising for him, just I really really don't get it.
Gold in yen is near it's 35 year high of 157,749 (their high was not in 2011 but 2013). This looks to be very noteworthy. Not least, that high was just before the April 2013 PM smash and massacre, that launched this miserable PM bear market. Did the yen price comprise a factor in this event?
Note that the all time high in yen was in 1980, at 302k yen per ounce. That was when the yen was much weaker. Many pundits are just plain ignorant of that, because they assume that a 20 year chart tells all, but ok. We are now near that 35 year yen price high. I guess we could call that a formidable resistance level, but if we clear it, what then? If it was to some extent the reason for the April 2013 smash, then TPTB are now right back where they were. Will they have to smash it again, or have they lost that fight?
Do you have the exact date of the 35 year old, ie all time high for gold-yen?
I can do stuff with that.
I may not be able to fully articulate a compelling or persuasive case for my position; since I am also under the weather; but I think the simple answer is that most of us do not fully trust ourselves. For example I know that I have been inaccurate in being able to predict the future; but that's another can of worms since successful trading has noting to do with being able to predict the future.
would just look at the chart and see, not think about it, just see how could one argue what was said over a year ago and what happened. they align perfectly. Most people are in denial and can't see what's in front of them
If it's dark blue and some one is going to argue with you it's light blue it's not worth the agrument. they just don't want to see.
It's all been documented very clearly and not even worth discussing why people don't see it. every day i run into people who have their views; it's just their views and has nothing to do with reality
I've had the privlage of speaking to AM privately now on many occaisions. Well worth's one time as there are things that he showed me that have boggled my mind. Will never probally be shared on this forum...but that's what it is.
I suspect that there are a hardcore of followers of this site that really appreciate the work that Argentus does.
I will hold my hand up. I read this thread (I ignore the rest of TFMR), I read Armstrongs blog and Sinclairs site.
I read Armstrong and Sinclair because both have at some point in the past been kind and very respectful towards me and that goes a long way. I believe that both are genuine people although they view the world really differently. I do not always get to read the news. Some months I could go over a week with literally no news other than the content of this site, Armstrongs site and Sinclairs site. Between these three sources, I have found that pretty much everything I need to know is on there.
So analysis takes different forms. Both Armstrong and Sinclair work in tandem to provide me with a fantastic array of news analysis which goes hand in hand with this site.
Bo P is an interesting character. He reminds me a bit of a former Russian poet that some know. He makes calls that are really out there. When he is hot, he is really hot. When he gets it wrong - oh boy does he get it wrong. JS gives him huge respect. I have masses of time for JS so I will read Bo's stuff because Jim is one really sharp cookie and he reads Bo's stuff.
Different people get different things from analysis. Some people will not get the way Argentus puts things. Its all about what we hear and see when someone speaks and writes. If we are on a similar wavelength to someone, then the lightbulbs go wild. Otherwise we simply might not get it.
Hat tip and really agree.
EDIT - Ooopss. Double post!
I have a file, I'll email it to you, but I think it is by month.
Nonetheless, the yen high will probably be the same date as the dollar high in 1980.
File sent to you.
21st Jan 1980.
Apologies everyone, the all time high was 203,368 yen, not 302k as mentioned up-thread. (This might not have been the intra day high either, but the fix instead.... but the dollar value in the same file was $850, which I think is the figure we all recognise).
If you are a plebian buying gold in Japan, the current average cost for an ounce (coin) from a recognized dealer is 181,265 yen - 1530 usd 1019 gbp (which includes premium and the 8% consumption tax - The 8% consumption tax you get back when you sell though so effectively it is negligible by the way) as of right now, regardless of what the charts say. I don't know what the tax rate was back in 1980 for gold.
If you buy 31.1g in bar form it will still cost you 172,000 yen - 1451 usd 969 gbp
If you sell an ounce, you get 164,963 yen - 1392 usd 929 gbp at a shop (or less from the real rip off merchants if you are stupid enough to sell to them).
There is no point ordering from abroad as the rip off bank or forex exchange rate and transfer costs pretty much wipe out the point of doing it to make it cheaper- plus anything over 200,000 yen attracts customs tax.
N.B when calculating the usd and gbp numbers, I only used google. The actual spread of rates between buying and selling used by bucket shops and banks are obviously much greater if one were to use the services to buy anything abroad.
Green Lantern wrote: I have no idea how many people view this forum or Armstrong or Sinclair or for what reason but if it's not for the accuracy of their analysis, than I'm clueless. There should be hordes of people in here soley based on the timing. I'm not advertising for him, just I really really don't get it.
I have no idea how many people view this forum or Armstrong or Sinclair or for what reason but if it's not for the accuracy of their analysis, than I'm clueless. There should be hordes of people in here soley based on the timing. I'm not advertising for him, just I really really don't get it.
I think you do get it really, you are just saying you don't to express your frustration - I do the same. People in general want to satisfy their most immediate emotional needs, not behave optimally and rationally according to their goals and situation. AM does all you can do, which is give some probabilities and alternative scenarios and then it's up to the reader to use that to suit themselves - this is as good as they can hope for.
But even though consciously they may know this is all you can hope for, subconsciously they still crave "Event X is going to happen with 100% certainty, so buy at price $y with stop at $z and take massive profit and buy cocaine/prostitutes after price hits $w". This is not possible but looms nevertheless - and is why people drift away from AM and look for posts of people like our poor mate Bo who express (fake) certainty. We've all been there and all do it to some degree - but it's tough to break this habit.
This was quite accurate:
The peak on 22nd, I mean. Gold reached 1308 yesterday. It could be of course not the end of ascent, but a pause happened as expected; gold also hit-not quite- some resistance in downtrending flag.
In Euro terms, currently at 1157/oz, gold is now above the level it was at, just before the April 2013 waterfall decline. It has reversed the entire decline from that point. The same applies to Canadian and Australian dollars.
Basis the yen, gold is knocking at the door of it's 35 year highs.
The current drama is not in dollars, and the question is as to which currency is providing the effective gaps and resistance. There are critical inflections all over the place, when all major currencies are taken into account.
I guess this is a consequence of currency chaos. Each has a relationship to gold, and some are in a bear phase while others are bullish.
To those thinking in USD, CHF and GBP, we have still not recovered from the April 2013 waterfall (though GBP is close to taking out some important horizontal resistance). Which basket of currencies will now have the greatest gravitational pull on gold? This will be quite a contest.
Next resonance on that timeframe: April-May 2015
I'll work it out more thoroughly later.