We are above Armstrongs early December 1250-1275 resistance area.
We closed December within Armstrongs 1310 to 1042 range in 2014 which he said would be bearish for gold in 2015. It hasn't been yet.
People were screaming the bottom is in. Armstrong retorted, it's not over until the fat lady sings. What happens if the fat lady sang and AM's heavy buying late last year was the fat lady singing? Not that he has said it won't be the last time but those bottoms haven't been staying too long for you to grap your car keys.
MA stated Gold will see the bottom (which bottom I don't know) EXCEPT if it rises above 1350. And that's good because he acknowledges the fluidness of the market so he is a little less definitive about a definite bottom.
Now we wait for this current inflection point period and Februarys uber dense inflection point period to take us up to new highs or not? It will tell us if he needs to recalibrate again. And that's fine, better to recalibrate after busting through resistance, then stubbornly ascert something so you don't look wrong.
Armstrong is a smart dude. All his theories on capitol flows has taught me alot. His ascertion about inflation and the dollar very astute which doesn't make the reverse true. Deflation and gold because as of yet deflation doesn't seem to be taking a toll on gold but it's early.
It's going to be very interesting in Jan and February. The message I continual get from MA is hold off, hold off, hold off with slight and very subtle shifts as he acknowledges the fluidness of the markets. He emphasizes the downside possibility over the bullish possibility and some of it seems like a reaction to the last three years of gold salesman so I detect a very subtle bias but not so bad that he isn't willing to recalibrate. Again, that's ok BUT if you consider the certainty that existed here in the last two months about buying opportunities and you ignored it by weighing it against more bearish attitudes, you've lost leverage in the market. If you Snooze you loose. Miners are fighting a new deflationary environment, I wouldn't worry too much about them now and maybe they are screaming buys too, now or soon.
The last thing I would be doing at this juncture is looking for a new sector to put your dollars in because we are in a deflationary environment. Seems to me, finally, that gold is the trade and the big set up is closer even if it's not tomorrow. A chess game ain't about how fast you can gain points, but how well you position your players until the time is right.
Armstrong has a model that gives triggers. Timing turn points and specific buy or sell signals.
He gave a price for the end of the week for a continued rise which has been achieved.
The turn point seems to have led to a break out rather than a turn.
Once the above two were clear he gave the monthly close number for a continued rise.
Armstrong will knows the date of an important low. it could be a high but that is another matter.
Until his buy signals are triggered the assumption will be that it is a lower low.
There are plenty of very intelligent people out there. Armstrong is one. As Jim Sinclair puts it - he will be short for too long as he always is. Talking of Sinclair - I think Armstrong calls him pretty well. He will be long too early and before the bottom. Both are smart. Both deserve respect.
Thing with cycles is that you get inversions. So the exact high or bottom is hard to call. You get important turns which may be higher or may be lower, but they are important none the less. Sinclair called the bottom at 1188. He was early. When I remember 2011 - well armstrong called the top too early and missed out on some. He called an important top. When the final top was made he revised his call. Sinclair revised his when lower bottom made.
Thanks for thinking out loud for the rest of us. (:-). This one guy I follow (private) brilliantly called the lows on Jan 2; but slightly after the fact; as a failed wave 5 of an ending diagonal. He viewed the entire move as a giant wave A from the 1900 highs in August, 2011. Interesting that we have seen a series of 5-upwaves (impulsive) since that time. So, now we are in wave B higher. He's calling for first, 1525, and possibly 1800.
According to my notes, M.A. was saying if gold closed < 1227 as of 12/31/2014 (which it did) we would see new lows in 2015.
It would be nice to see CarbonJunkie's price testing the lows, but it doesn't look like that's in the cards. Lends a new meaning to the term "left behind at the train station"? The tell seemed to be the strength in the gold stocks.
Now on to little Bo P. He is calling for rises into a turn date towards the end of the month which is similar to a date given by AM.
Could this lead to 1350? I wonder what will happen on Monday on the inflection. Maybe it was early and today with someone front running AMs inflection :-).
But this is where armstrongs system is robust. By saying price is down until 1350 is taken on the monthly he is saying that price is down until it is clear that it isnt. He cannot be wrong.
When he compares the swiss to the dollar - it all makes a lot os sense. Could the dollar do a swiss and appreciate big time. Yeap. Could that be an event to bring in a gold low. Yes.
But then you get to the bit where i disagree with him. He says now is not the time to buy gold. Gold went up in Russia but it isnt gold it is currency falling. Well - sorry Martin, but if you are Russian - now is the time to have gold. if you are a hedge fund - then fine, invest in dollar assets or whatever currencies will benefit. But if you are joe public, then I am with Sinclair. Gold is insurance. It is savings.
Excellent context and perspective!
Green Lantern wrote: AM, ..... I understand your recent commentary you've made on Ice and HFT. Zerohedge did an article on it and there have been press releases by this exchange as far back as two years ago to try to thwart this behavior. I'm trying to figure out who are the forces involved and why is this group trying to thwart Central banks and the cartel? Or are they? Do they have their own selfish interest or is somebody in the financial industry really concerned with fairness and justice in the market? ....
AM, ..... I understand your recent commentary you've made on Ice and HFT. Zerohedge did an article on it and there have been press releases by this exchange as far back as two years ago to try to thwart this behavior.
I'm trying to figure out who are the forces involved and why is this group trying to thwart Central banks and the cartel? Or are they? Do they have their own selfish interest or is somebody in the financial industry really concerned with fairness and justice in the market? ....
First I mention this is outside my area of expertise. I expect Eric Scott Hunsader of Nanex would be the best source for an opinion on this.
I can draw together a few strands of information which suggest that it might be a combination of:
The publication of the non fiction book Flash Boys by Michael Lewis documenting front running, spoof trade quotes etc
Consequent adverse publicity telling the public that markets are rigged and finally getting that message across,
After an FBI investigation, a $4.5M fine for NYSE and 2 other exchanges which were apparently paid without admission of malpractice (but impede ongoing episodes of the same business model)
The launch of the IEX HFT-proof trading system/exchange
That at times during December last the IEX trading volume surpassed the volume traded on AMEX.
In other words a withdrawal of business by clients could be at the back of the changes, and possibly the regulation might force a change of the way HFT operates from the past, or it might reduce profits substantially.
The failure of Virtu Financial, the HFT trader with only one losing day ever to make an IPO seems to confirm that their best days are over. Possibly.
The IEX trading platform website is here. Basically they seem to have scooped up a large portion of the business of the other unfairly run exchanges in such a short time as to force a tightening on HFT's worst methods.
and NANEX is here: https://www.nanex.net/index.html
You had it given here two years ago.
Long time readers of Setup might like to have a careful look at post #7 of this forum and then get a chart out of XAU:CHF.
Seeing that cycle from 2007 to now puts a different perspective on all the "immediate reasons" advanced for the SNB action and CHF's revaluation.
You see, the cycle in post #7 goes back to before the CHF:EUR peg existed, yet it timed this alteration to the peg.
Here is the same chart with one cycle updated to today:
So last week I said change was imminent. It was. Readers of Setup were on the right side of the move.
Two years ago I showed cause sufficient for such as this week contained. So of all the analysts out there who proclaim they "predicted" this Swiss National Bank move first, I just might have a bit of a head start, and you did also - Feb 9, 2013.
Tend to your stops diligently. This can break up or down, that contest is not yet decided.
Next month will be off the wall in many ways. I only said such once before here and didn't disappoint then. So again we wait and watch.
Next Monday is a holiday, no trading. Just adds another small twist.
It looks like after ending the long fibo time sequence ending in early jan gold has started now short term up sequence which ends latest on January 22nd, day of ECB meeting . What if ECB does not go for QE which is still opposed by Germany? What if Swiss knew it? Peg does not make sense if EUR is not tanking due to QE? Whatever, here is the sequence of tops:
Quite possible for gold to reach 1310 before this run ends.
This was a sight to behold.
Gold having 20 and 30 dollar up days, while the EUR is crashing, with possibly the biggest EUR fall to come if the ECB does QE next week.
In just a couple of days, gold blasted through the formidable 1000 euro resistance like a rocket, and sits now at over 1100 euro. Many horizontal resistance lines were trashed along the way.
There are some gaps too, on the route to the all time Eur high, just under 1400.
This is epic stuff; Eurozone is wealthy regardless economic woes, and holders of Euro will be really spooked what is happening to their currency. They will be seeking safety from currency problems, from rapacious tax authorities, and what is becoming increasingly apparent loss of control by central banks.
Price in dollars and dollar chart be damned, the Eurozone joins the rest of the world is being given a prompt to buy physical gold. Supply that cartel please, or stand back. Oh dear, rapid price rises in gold just attract further buying, no? Self reinforcing cycle may be dead ahead.
I have stopped trading for now; I will sit this out and watch. Like Argentus says, not a time to lose positions.
Whatever might happen, will happen in London hours then.
To those in the Americas, sleep on Sunday night with one eye open!
It's A Mystery, an ex-contributor at this thread, has a new article in Koos Janssen's Blog at Bullion Star.
Well worth a read IMO:
Hat tip to Verus nemo for the heads up on Main St on the article.
If we see $1500 gold in the next few months. If we do I won't take credit for the call. Just posting it here for reference. And if we do I'll check back with everyone and provide specifics on how I reached this conclusion.
Also note that the bottom probally is in. Also a reference for future discussion. higher low on the way?
AM posted this. Now if you go back and look to the left of this chart in the 2008 period and closely inspect the pattern closely and look at the right side near 2013 and after you see a very similar pattern. that 2008 showes where we went which was a big ride up. Now i expect we are now at a higher high then back in that time point we could see a much bigger run up then what we saw back then. where does that take us?....use your imagination. Hang on
Gold price in CHF experience on January 15th shows that next bottom in gold in USD may be sharp as knife, 1 hour long at most, and almost impossible to catch except for a lucky order without stops placed around 900-950 USD. And that it will require a seminal surprise event to happen..e.g. like FED increasing rates already on Jan 28-29th meeting.
If I will get my dry powder prior to 28th as I expect I think I will place such a stink order, most likely for silver at 13 USD.
FED increasing rates early will also help to drain more capital from Russia to the USA. And stabilize CHF/USD rate which currently--CHF is valuation is too high. It would also help drive oil prices and ruble lower. So why not try it - at the expense of the rest of the world? USD is the USA most important export its value is better for the USA economy when its higher. It dwarfs all other exports.
Exactly, hence my warning to those in America. These holidays are frequent occasions for decisive moves, up or down, but then we all know that any way. Those who locked in on Friday (me included) may be in a for a bit of a shock.
We are at the next inflection of January 2015. This inflection seems to be connected with the end of month accounting cycle period by a G-V peak which peaks now, but pulls back to an extremely high range and peaks again between 31 Jan and approx 4 Feb. I would associate personal and international violence with the end of month G-V high.
Does this mean that something starts today which will continue until Feb 4? I don't really think so, what is in play started much longer ago than this week as my recent post showed, and at the same time I have no way to know for sure. I think instead today may be a peak which "pauses" the mayhem of recent days (4 x Greek Banks failed, Hedge fund blown up, brokerage company blown up, Swiss currency peg blown through and the FX Swiss Franc crosses revalued) with some final ending event, and after this pause many repercussions return with increased strength.
Since gold tends to lead events a bit, it could be that gold gets the action sooner and the other asset classes get it in two weeks.
That's a lot of speculation about world power-play shakeouts, but while news is a tricky thing to numerate, the market prices should show it pretty clear. The fact is I have vague notions of price change, but the fundamental power change to cause that could take many different forms.
As already mentioned, please exercise great care with stops both for profit protection and for loss prevention.
Anybody know what happened to Gene Arensberg? Someone posted last fall that Gene had fallen ill. Haven't seen a recent post, and nothing since November 17, 2014.
He used to have very interesting COT analysis. Now, his site comes up blank. Sure hope he's OK!
I figured someone here on this thread might know.
Suicide or not? Apparently he told associates his life was in danger just days before ....