The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Jan 14, 2015 - 12:49pm
Stock_Canines
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MA and Turd and

I have to say Armstrong's analysis appears to be going as planned - heading high gear into a worldwide deflationary crash (Turd also appears to be onboard with this view). So, my question is how does one invest for this potential outcome. I imagine gold will fall as the dollar reigns supreme at least in the near to mid term (2016/2017) before gold rises as faith in government comes under severe attack (at least this Armstrong's opinion). So if one wants to invest some capital with an elevated risk profile would the smart bet be long the dollar through some leveraged ETF instrument? What else might pay dividends (figuratively speaking) in this deflationary environment?

Wed, Jan 14, 2015 - 1:01pm
brokerk22
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@stock canines

Looks like gold is doing just fine in this "dollar rising environment."

Wed, Jan 14, 2015 - 1:12pm brokerk22
Stock_Canines
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@brokerk22

sure, for now, but MA is calling for gold to fall significantly when the dollar really takes off (towards 120). I think he will be right, but of course, we will only know later on down the road

Wed, Jan 14, 2015 - 8:53pm Stock_Canines
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possibilities

Short Emerging markets, with currency printing and devaluations people flee to USD. Watch closely, but certainly don't invest yet copper, oil, iron ore, shippers (baltic dry, TGA etc). If it looks like war meme ramping up go uranium, rare earth metals, and oil. RIG also on sale, could go lower, would tranch it. Remember basic big boy steps 1) give themselves all tremendous $$$ via printing 2) drive asset prices down 3) pick up hard assets for huge discounts so you can own as much of the world as possible, rinse, repeat. Right now we are in the driving hard assets down to buy at bargain basement pricing phase.

Leveraged plays? We tamp down via PPT all market volatility right now so if you see UVXY in the $2o range buy it and wait for the next geopolitical concern to emerge to profit, rinse, repeat. Expecting PMs down in 7-10 days (but downward trend could start as early as next TUES the 20th), DUST a possible play. Alternatively, wait till after the 2oth to play JNUG on the reversal, or you could do both. UWTI on sale now but could still go lower, if buying would use tranches buying 1/3 now, next 1/3 on further 10%-20% drop, final 1/3 20%-40% lower, just set the buys and wait (I would do the 20%, 40% version).

I am not a pro trader DYODD. Good luck. Be well.

flyinkel
Wed, Jan 14, 2015 - 10:11pm flyinkel
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Edit

Above should have read wait until after the 23rd for possible JNUG reversal. Sorry about that, caught it too late to edit.

flyinkel
Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 3:41am flyinkel
foscotanner
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thought of day

so......

gold made a bottom in Nov. It rallied. It made a lower low. It is now probing the high from the initial rally.

it is slowly taking out various resistance lines. Which will now form support.

Stocks showing signs of being unhappy above 18,000. No longer rising weekly. Something has changed.

And yet posts on here are extremely low...... Interesting......

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 4:04am
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@ Foscotanner

The very first words on this thread...

"As we move at crawling speed towards the end of the current consolidation pattern......"

This is a waiting game.

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 5:52am
Just A Regular Guy
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CHF ZOMG!!!!1111111

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 6:44am
silverstool
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Swissie

Now that is a big deal. It has the feeling of Black Wednesday about it? I wonder which side of the trade Soros was on? In this interconnected global economy, I just don't understand how such volatility won't blow the market up.

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 6:45am
Byzantium
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CHF

So far today, the high in gold in swiss francs was $40k, and the low was 31k.

That is a hell of a range for one day; in fact half a day!

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 7:21am
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Basis the XAU-USD1242 is

Basis the XAU-USD

1242 is taken

1255-58 was taken and pulled back to, retest soon

Then if we hold and continue in the rally 128x-129x lies up there asking to be attacked.

That open up another "vacuum" above of quite some size. So it will be defended vigorously.

The succession of inflections has constructed a much larger inflection. The intraday high (basis spot) of 19th October last at 1255.xx has been taken out today with an intraday high of 1260.xx.

Everything we need to see is clearly on the chart, clearly visible, and the balance of power at important times is clearly demonstrated.

This rally will end and a downswing appear. Where that downswing will terminate is being revalued currently as this upswing rally high is being discovered by the gold price.

At the moment there is lots to like about gold. We actually now have on a monthly scale a similar situation as pertained on hourly-daily at end of October-early November last. Long term bears, followers of the mature trend down are not bullish. When they (I am not mentioning names) do become bullish I expect that regular readers of "the setup" will be at that time selling this rally to take profits or in hope of a newer lower re-entry, provided that we are able to still recognize the clues and hints correctly and don't get led astray.

Steady hand on the tiller, maintain mission, while remaining vigilant. Avoid distractions.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 8:24am
redwood
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"This rally will end and a

"This rally will end and a downswing appear. Where that downswing will terminate is being revalued currently as this upswing rally high is being discovered by the gold price."

I think you said around the 18th or next week. Not that it's important but I see it this way too. Won't get much swayed by today's grand performance, but the volatility certainly can be a distraction.

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 9:02am
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From the post of 31st

From the post of 31st December 2014:

argentus maximus wrote:

....... The incoming inflections are .... and 15-18 Jan, excepting the weekends in between those dates.

On the political and power transfers there is a G-V peak 10-11 Jan, on 16th Jan and also a major on the 18th, and a protracted major 28-31 January.

The end Jan G-V is a doozy. ...., 31 Jan to 4 Feb ..... Gov and CB meetings, and so on will have been already scheduled by their participants to drop into the same periods.

Swiss CB acted 24 hours early or I was 24 hours late. Maybe I'm getting old .....

This inflection of 15-18 Jan isn't done yet. Tomorrow and Monday to go still. And if this is mid Jan, and end Jan is bigger (I think) then what does end Jan contain?

The violent specific component of the G-V will remain very high for all of February, the first part of March, and a very big peak in April . Time for big things to happen. But we must work on the daily hottest times. I just want readers to know it doesn't ease off between G-V peaks except but slightly.

Q1 2015 ........ many estimates and valuations will require to be revised substantially, and the traders on the wrong side must get out through a bottleneck.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 9:29am
redwood
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Not old, wiser, much, much

Not old, wiser, much, much wiser. :)

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 9:58am
erewenguy
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@ argentus

Will you remind me what a G-V peak is? Thanks.

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 10:21am
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It's  an abbreviation of

It's an abbreviation of Geopolitical-Violence.

It times in precise form when contests for power will be resolved, though they may begin before, it's the resolution of winner and loser that matters. Typically, election upsets, abdications, assassinations, high profile resignations, ruler replacement, large bank failures, government imposition of draconian style unmandated legislation, riots, suicide, large crime and military ventures often fall on G-V peaks.

The G-V provides a counterpoint to particular "owned" publications or media organs and sometimes this gives insight into when an "official story" is most likely to be deliberately misleading. That's because these "stories" are also campaigns launched by those who want power.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 10:44am argentus maximus
foscotanner
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Q1

AM,

Since Q1 is going to be rather fascinating - is it worth another webinar to help RnPers through it?

Maybe end of Jan. Maybe mid Feb?

Or is it best to wait until end of current cycle around Apr?

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 12:00pm flyinkel
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@flyinkel

Much appreciated - thank you. What you say makes a lot of sense. Does todays news/action in PMs change your perspective at all on near term moves?

Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 1:51pm foscotanner
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errr ..... maybe. At first

errr ..... maybe.

At first they were (I thought) an annual extra something I could provide for people I talk with. Then we had the 2nd webinar and it seemed that quarterly or half yearly might be the way it actually panned out. but as you say, if markets are very busy the interest rises, even if not out in the wider blogosphere.

I guess in a couple of weeks. That would be about last week of Jan to 1st week of Feb.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jan 15, 2015 - 3:58pm argentus maximus
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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:

Everything we need to see is clearly on the chart, clearly visible, and the balance of power at important times is clearly demonstrated.

This rally will end and a downswing appear. Where that downswing will terminate is being revalued currently as this upswing rally high is being discovered by the gold price.

At the moment there is lots to like about gold. We actually now have on a monthly scale a similar situation as pertained on hourly-daily at end of October-early November last. Long term bears, followers of the mature trend down are not bullish. When they (I am not mentioning names) do become bullish I expect that regular readers of "the setup" will be at that time selling this rally to take profits or in hope of a newer lower re-entry, provided that we are able to still recognize the clues and hints correctly and don't get led astray.

Steady hand on the tiller, maintain mission, while remaining vigilant. Avoid distractions.

Agreed, it would be most welcome if this is captured in the context of RNP. I am clueless as usual about where we will end up in this rally. I've traded the Nov low very hard as posted many times in this thread. When every producer out there went vertical on the charts I was convinced the low was in (or very close). If we reach 250-270 for HUI I will sell, not before. And then the rally continues to 500 ...

randomness