Sorry, no link for Edelson. It was posted on a public blog. And this one too. Cheers.
Gold’s Next Bull Market …
Larry Edelson | Wednesday, November 26, 2014 at 7:30 am
Almost no one thought gold and silver could ever get hit as hard as they’ve been. Not even the likes of big gold investors like George Soros … John Paulson … Rick Rule … Jimmy Rogers, and many others.
The thing is, they don’t really understand the gold market. They thought they did, but they failed miserably.
They failed to understand that the gold and silver markets are like any other market. What goes up for 11 years straight has a very high probability of pulling back for two to three years. That’s simple technical analysis, and those high-flying money managers didn’t even get that right.
They also failed to understand that central bank money-printing is not always bullish for precious metals.
There are times where no amount of money-printing can inflate gold and silver prices because, very simple again, either investors are too scared to do anything with their money … or they see better opportunities elsewhere, like in stocks.
Big gold investors, like George Soros, thought they understood the gold market, but they failed miserably.
I could go on and on about how the bigwigs missed most or all of the correction in gold and silver and how many billions they and others lost.
But there’s no need for that. But for a short period last year, I got it right, and I helped my readers and subscribers avoid steep losses, and helped them make pretty big profits to boot.
So instead, I want to now turn your attention to what the next bull market will look like for gold and silver — to the forces that will drive metals higher again — once gold and silver finally do bottom.
The bottom isn’t here yet. But by preparing you for the future and for what will drive precious metals higher again once the bottom does come — you will be light years ahead of other investors.
First, and perhaps most importantly, central bank money-printing will NOT be the major force driving precious metals prices higher in the future.
So let me be perfectly clear, if you’re counting solely or largely on central bank money-printing to drive gold and silver prices through the roof in the next leg up, then you’ll miss the real reasons the metals will go higher.
Money-printing, this time largely in Japan and Europe, will be a force, but it will not be nearly as strong a force as it was in the metals first leg up from 2000 to 2011.
The reason is simple: Between the towering inferno of as much as $158 trillion of global debt with weak underpinnings and derivatives bets that now approach more than $1.2 QUADRILLION in notional value …
There is simply no way central banks could ever print enough money to stabilize the global monetary system.
So print or not, the next leg up in the precious metals will not be driven by money-printing. It will be driven largely by a breakdown in the global monetary system.
A breakdown in the global monetary system means there will be big banks and financial institutions going belly up … sovereign nations, especially in Europe going bust … Washington going bust … and sovereign bond markets collapsing to 10 cents on the dollar.
Money-printing will not solve or prevent or even delay those things from happening in the next several years. Period.
Gold and silver, once they do bottom, will start rising again because savvy investors are finally beginning to realize that their Emperors really do have no clothes, and all the money-printing in the world won’t be able to cover that up.
Second, inflation will NOT be a major force either. Don’t get me wrong. We do face higher inflation in the years ahead. But that part of gold and silver’s next leg up is still a ways off and won’t arrive until late 2015 or early 2016.
And even then it won’t be a big factor: Reason, despite what most pundits say, the U.S. willnever face hyperinflation.
The reasons are simple: First, despite all the flaws in the U.S. dollar, it’s still the world’s reserve currency. And when the rest of the world, again, mainly Japan and Europe, are having so much trouble, it means the dollar will be a magnet for capital, keeping it from plunging into an abyss, thereby avoiding hyperinflation.
Second, is the size of our debt markets. They too are, like the dollar, an exorbitant privilege we have over the rest of the world. Come any signs of major inflation, the bond vigilantes will send rates higher, killing much higher inflation rates in their tracks.
Bottom line: Do not count on inflation to drive gold and silver prices higher going forward. If you do, you will be completely befuddled when gold and silver prices rise, yet there’s no sign of inflation on the immediate horizon.
Third, are the war cycles I’ve been warning you about. In previous articles, I’ve told you how the impact of the war cycles is already beginning to show in many different geo-political realms.
In Syria, in North Korea, in the Cyprus confiscation of depositor assets, in Russia’s moves in Ukraine, in China and Japan’s war of words over the Senkaku islands, in China’s moves in the South China Sea and more.
This is going to ultimately be the most important force driving precious metals higher. It will coincide with the first force above, the collapse of the world’s monetary system.
It will be a nasty set of conditions where governments are at war militarily or financially with each other …
And where governments are at war with their own citizens — repressing more and more liberties and personal freedoms, chasing down assets to tax and confiscate, and more.
In other words, total upheaval of modern society, coupled with a collapse of the global monetary system.
In a nutshell, those are the real reasons gold and silver prices will soar in their next leg up. Not inflation alone. Not money-printing alone. Not even currency devaluations alone.
Get it right, and you will be buying gold and silver near their lows in 2015, when just about everyone else is throwing in the towel.
Right now, I still expect to see gold below $1,000 early next year. Then the bottom will be in.
Silver could fall to as low as $12.50, worst case.
After that, the lid will come off, and the precious metals will begin their inevitable march higher, to $5,000 gold and at least $125 for silver.
For now, remain hedged up or outright bearish per my suggestions in these columns to use inverse ETFs. They are serving you well, with nice open gains.
And stay tuned!
Best wishes and Happy Thanksgiving,
I think these advisors are changing their marketing songs too often..
But he is correct about coming war being the main driver, in my opinion Russia in Ukraine for starters, which in turn shall begin with a change of personalities in Russian government and-perhaps later- change of monetary system. And bottom is very close,in silver may be earlier...
I wonder will it be outright nationalization of Russian CB or something more sophisticated but essentially the same- 100% government current asset backed-not reserve backed =unlevereged fiat. 100% printing press at work. 6 year lifetime for that one. It is a big stakes, all in game . One of the reasons World Wars do not last longer then that, usually.
for the annual Turkey Pardon Ceremony...& Thanksgiving dinner at the Whitehouse...with all the trimmings!...However...George could not resist commenting on "the bashful turkey"!!!...
Bag Of Gold
This looks like it will be considered the second stage of the final downswing when looked back from a future time.
Gold-silver ratio now 78.42
Watch it carefully. At some point it's going to stop going down.
I noticed that Gold gapped down right at the open and although Silver had a small gap down at the open - it did not really gap down before 00:40. Usually they are pretty much "walking in lock-step". Do you have an idea, why Silver held up for 40 minutes before diving?
Long term holdings increased by approx 6% in proportion 1:50 Au:Ag after PMs gapped and accellerated down during the Far East spot market session.
This is a momentum peak type buy, therefore it is likely to drive lower and give another better price.
@LL: I don't have a good answer for that. My mind turns to things like concentration of effort on moving one asset at a time through support ...... If anyone has a better idea I'd certainly like to hear it.
A really good presentation - does Kondratiev and Schumpeter proud with a walk through history and a reference to Nixon as the "dick" we now know him as. Must watch and even show others
The supporting document:
Thanks for this thread AM
Silver is moving towards its final bottom quite fast..could be we are in final leg of that. My problem is, dry powder may come only by January so perhaps I will miss the bottom... 13,5 was all the time my bet since August I guess .. Will there be a spike lower- could be. With gold at 1050 and GSR 84, silver could hit 1050/84 = 12,5.
Gold will hit bottom some time after that, with silver already on the rise.
Though..there could be still a retraction in GSR now that it hit the top of the channel. Could be. Could also not be as spike continues until it breaks down:
Lets see if GSR moves outside the channel when CME trading will begin today.
was the sgi always doomed and perhaps an echo/smaller cycle of brown's bottom because the last part - no selling of gold we have/will buy in the future the real reason for the "no'.
was the no vote really a yes to sell the remaining gold ala brown's bottom - and we get more foreknowledge of the possible turn - akin to your comment AM of micro-efforts within the bounds of the macro-cycles
i think some of the swiss reserves were sold before at same time as brown's bottom
All it takes is one refusal to go lower and PMs will be going back to midrange of the 5 year trading range.
One false or failed breakdown. One medium term pivot taken out to the upside will do:
So now we watch and see who wins. If bulls win the low is already in last month. If the bears win, driving it down to new lows, the contest renews immediately and resolves today-tomorrow, or 10th or 18th December but from a lower level.
I added to positions as described above.
Technically it's still a sell into rallies so long as the recent intraday highs still stand unbroken, and the gold price remains below last year's annual low.
Doing well trading this whipsaw... quite strange really. Just buying on RSI 15min below 20 and selling RSI 15min Above 85 AKA buy on weakness sell on strength
Only a couple of weeks ago, Turd did a site overhaul. Dan Norcini just went to a paid format. And a couple of TF members reported on the paid subscription site that Polny was let go. I have no idea where they got that information or even what Polny's roll was with Sinclair except checking Sinclairs site he is now touting the virtues of Charles Nenner now.
Dr. Nenner has called this general area and general timing as the low for gold before $2100. So far Dr. Nenner’s track record in this gold market is among the best. The conclusions issued by Mr. Kramer-Miller are quite interesting carrying a high probability of being correct.
My overall point is about timing of these changes. Interesting that a group of free will thinkers all started to contemplate site or analysis overhauls around the same time.
I have no problem being a nobody in the metals arena pointing out that Sinclairs track record of hiring technical analysis guru's is less than spotless and I feel comfortable making my own judgements about whose track records I wish to follow.
Reading the comments in Norcini's blog I note a couple of things, an overall acceptance vs an overall dissatisfaction about site changes here. And what seems to me as a total lack of awareness of where we are in the gold market by virtue of some of the comments. I have no idea where Norcini stands as I didn't read it regularly.
The worst offense seems to me is that those who were on Turd before who maintained uber bullishness well into the bear market, have done nothing more than adopted an uber bearish sentiment in a reactionary manner simply because it feels safer to be a bear and maybe a little out of the sour grapes. Note the push into mainstream stocks and nothing about how appetizing the mining stocks.
The continued sour grapes, throwing out the baby with the bath water at TFmetals will likely hurt them as investors. It's your job to sift through information and determine what is useful and what is not.
To hell with all the BS, seek out the best information (as you see it) where ever it can be gotten. There is indeed a dirth of good analysis available in markets. This is a game that requires the right amount of fermentation and seasoning. And for my money folks, there is no better market analysis in the metals arena than right here. Hard to believe such a thing would exist tucked away in such a forum. The best people in any profession are not always the ones with greater recognition. I know for a fact that there a good number of lurkers rolling their eyes.
And at least a few here that I know see what I am seeing but the incredibly low sentiment here either suggest most visitors here are completely burned out or they don't grasp the quality and depth of the information here. Not tantalizing enough to seek anything else than what is given here for free. And I acknowledge if you are unaccustomed to some of the techniques Norman uses than it can be hard to follow and confusing. And there is a choice there too. You can remain confused or you can seek out more information or ask.
unless you've been on any of his private calls or exchanged information with him privately there is no way you could have a full perspective of what he knows behind the scenes, the degree of knowledge he brings to the table, and the absolute accuracy and thoroughness he brings to his work and more often shows in his subscription. But he has stated that before yeah? He will not post his best work here.
Sinclair and Norcini and just about everybody else in the gold arena need to pull up a seat right beside the rest of us here because I'm willing to say there is nobody out there doing what Norman is doing right here, free of charge. My request last time to show me somebody that was doing this went unanswered.
What blow's my mind is that there is some kind of reverse "The Emperor Has no Clothing" syndrome while some of us have been accused at admiring a nude Emperor. While it's incredibly detrimental to put faith into an analyst who has popularity but not the track record or goods(why does that keep happening here?), it is equally detrimental to dismiss something or to mis characterize it because of your own ego issues. I am suggesting or simply highlighting that I think we are at that juncture where the latter could cost you considerable $.
I've read some of the comments and disparaging remarks on the other forums and other sites about this form of analysis and those of us here that find something valuable here as latching on to a guru. Fine. They are entitled to their views, I'm giving mine. my view is you are caught into a consensus reality where because you've not seen something done, you don't believe it can be done. When I queried one such person, and kept pressing, he finally admitted, begrudgingly, I just don't get it and if somebody is not my holding my hand on what gold is going to do the very next minute, I can't trade it. Ever think of taking up a new occupation?
Adopting the beginning mindset is hard for adults. The human ego is too fragile to acknowledge when somebody does something better than what you thought you did well.
No forecasts? What world are you living in. And you would tout the virtues of disgruntled analysis because they saw a low in crude. they certainly did not get this sector right.
I can tell ya that Norman is much more than trend lines. I've briefly browsed through some of his source materials but unfortunately I don't have $1000's of spare fiat to buy my own copies and I refuse to download illegal copies and keep it on my computer. I'll peak just to see what I am missing than delete.
But I can tell ya some of these guys talk techniques are way out of the consciousness of most traders or anything you read about or is even posted here. Some of the guys who write these things just don't want to share their work publicly at all. There is no way the mass of traders and pundits have these techniques at their disposal. They might have this trick or that trick but when that trick fails, no back up. Their track records demonstrate it.
Bottom line: Start paying close attention especially to a guy who is not trigger happy with his cash and eager to buy at every downturn. I'll be surprised if by Spring 2015 this place isn't buzzing again with manic depressive traders and investors who only have enthusiasm for a subject when the markets are rising. If they never had objectivity, they won't have gained it in their hibernation. There is enough information here to keep people interested and curious through all types of market. And I'll be particularly careful of listening to those who come out of the wood works professing the next market turn if things are rising.
The internet, news media, social media is indeed a time consuming pursuit and takes away from other productive activities in one's life, creative, business, and family. But I've never had so many people tell me that their time off is due to being busy when such conflicts didn't exist in the run up.
I can assure you that I have as much stress as anybody else, financially, family affairs, elderly parents, career stress, living issues, spiritual issues, figuring out new fiat ventures as well as time for hobbies that I pursue. There is simply not enough time. Fortunately, I seem to handle "loss aversion" (Pining article) better than some others, market and otherwise.
It's a funny thing though when profit is at stake how people can all of a sudden find time and enthusiasm. Now's the time to pay attention, when things are going up will be the time to take a rest....for a wee bit. I suspect that many will be caught off guard even some of the readers here.
It seems this was not final bottom as GSR shot back from channel top very fast. Might be if will revisit it within 1 -2 months.
Of course, some physical metal needs to be deployed into markets to achieve that, taking GOFO rates into account. Lest see; As GLR rises, it may be politically possible for someone - from the Gold CB- to offer more gold for lease.
Thanks for speaking your mind and sharing your opinions. Here's a couple of opinions (right or wrong) that might dovetail with your discourse. Trader Dan at one time was asking for donations. I found that a bit strange and it didn't last long. TD is an excellent technician BUT he really offers on practical strategies; unlike A.M. I know that Argentus is much more (pardon the word here) eclectic and his methods encompass a broad and deep range of techniques. And I dare say that a lot of those methods are not those which can readily recognized by the masses; (hidden if you will) which is why they are valuable. Of course there is also the important element of how the feedback mechanism can adversely affect prices.
Finally, there a trading concept that you can give a guy a successful system; and he will lose money on it for various reasons. Unless an individual designs that system himself; it can't be traded successfully because it doesn't encompass his beliefs about the market. In the final analysis, we trade or invest in what we believe and the most important belief is what we harbor about ourselves. Cheers.
argentus maximus wrote: I can't wait to read the official excuse/explanation for that. File it under fantasy fiction when it comes out.
I can't wait to read the official excuse/explanation for that. File it under fantasy fiction when it comes out.
are there any "fat finger" fantasies floating around out there?...I haven't seen any!...
Thank you for two very fine posts. And eclectic always enjoyed your name for obvious reasons.
Obvious because in a world of complexity as is the trading market, comprehension must be complex.
It first begins with a profound understanding of first principles. I learned this very early in my career when I picked up a weighty and much respected tome on the first principles of surgery.....a must read for any aspiring surgeon/physician and a concept that has guided me in my work for decades in whatever area of study. But it takes years, toil, numerous mistakes to finally discern the kernel of information that one must have to master just about anything. So while scholars "learn" first principles, the creators have taken years to develop it. That's how advancement proceeds.
Once this skeleton of information is created then one begins to work on the periphery and gives the fleshy component to these core concepts. This also takes much time, experience and the capacity to learn. If core concepts are misconstrued the entire frame crumbles in time. If not, one navigates competently through the maze while others remain perplexed and desperate.
I think this is what AM offers, its very apparent to anybody following this thread.
Five minute charts below as per the timestamp of my last night's post above :https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/629074#comment-629074
I printed it in both USD and EUR crosses against gold.
So now we observe how this retest works out.
Well so much for the Swiss referendum....I half expected as much. But this defers the lower lows we are expecting further out into 2015 it seems.