The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 9:50am
ivars
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Gold has hit some resistance

Gold has hit some resistance again..more downside expected.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 1:33pm
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Have a nice weekend  swallow

Have a nice weekend swallow your turkey carefully, you do not want to choke.

Swiss shiver ? Should have sold my position a couple of days ago, thought a NO was priced in. And then, should have sold three and ½ years ago. If NO on Sunday, maybe I will start bottom fishing on Monday with my real estate loan. It is so easy these days, no phone calls, no check, no control, no papers to sign, no valuation of my real estate. Just a click at your closest internet bank and a couple of days later you are almost a millionaire in Swedish fiat. I really like this fractional banking system and money printing ! I do not understand why some people complain?

(not)

Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 2:38pm
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Holiday long weekend time is

Holiday long weekend time is upon us.

First we go up to the sky, a couple of days ago, and now we drop down to the floor!

We have seen all this before.

Of course this is the best time, this month, during final trading days of futures, to try for a new low in gold and silver, and neither has been achieved yet.

We'll soon see if the bears still retain enough clout to achieve their aims. For now, both metals are both above support and under the long term trend, that is to say still within the inflection.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - 3:09am
ivars
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Yesterday GSR reached new

Yesterday GSR reached new highs with both metals moving down, silver faster in relative terms-as expected and as it usually happens:

It looks more and more likely that negative Swiss gold vote will- as OPEC decision for oil- even though priced in- start the final sellof in PMs- which could last - according to earlier charts about FIBO convergence of expected Russian event impact on gold- 1 month and then perhaps keep around bottom-bottoming out - for another month. It depends on Russian USA tensions, but my scenario is that they will increase in market opinion from that point on, as winter comes to close. flade sees opposite direction-we shall see very soon who is right or is truth still somewhere in the middle.

As far as I know Russians and estimate Putin, they are not rational, has a big mystical element guiding their actions. And Putin is an adrenaline seeking high stakes gambler. My opinion is based on similarities in character /behavior to Hitler he exposes (more important than differences). Putin's is holding tactical nukes close to his chest, his only strong card with which to scare Europe and test China. Approximately 10000 pcs (if not more if part of Soviet 40 000 stockpiles have not been really destroyed as agreed with the USA) compared to almost 0 for China/Europe.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - 7:01am
ivars
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After oil price will bottom -

After oil price will bottom - in few months- with current ruble value or lower, nothing can prevent Russia from turning on printing press to rearm; from history ( French assignats during French Revolution) it is known that government printed money lasts for about 7 years before complete annihilation. This puts a deadline for Putin to compensate - as French tried as well then- this printing and devaluation with asset resource looting by military force. If Russia changes its monetary regime say in early 2015, it has time till about 2020 to compensate it by entering and winning wars. If it does not change its monetary regime soon, it has already lost.

If it wins the wars as Lincoln did in Civil war, its paper money (greenbacks in Lincoln case) will survive, and so will the country (Empire).

That was the same thing Germany did from 1936 when it replaced Hjalmaar Schacht with Gering as Minister of Economy. And after 5 years it was forced to attack Russia as printing press was pointing towards the end of Reich mark after 5 years of uneconomical rearmament. Returns from winning wars in Europe were too low; Germany needed something HUGE to save it.

So in fact the choice for WWIII will be made in early 2015 by Russian monetary regime choice. After that monetary autopilot (with help of world bankers) takes over.

I think this change in Russian monetary regime- showing its intents to increase confrontation and the need for military aggression to keep its NEW monetary system functioning- will mark the bottom in gold.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - 8:49am
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Swiss Gold Referendum

Will not pass. Probaly all just one big noise event. They will never allow for gold to be in the lime light. the fact remains is that the cycles will determine how this all will play out. The news is all about gold now has anyone noticed. all the states are playing their cards. Big wars going on behind the scenes.

Will see how it plays out. NOte that AM keeps indicating he's been long and just recently purchaced some Au.

I see Ilya has been brought back to life. let's see what will occur next on the boards.

Is turd still saying buy the dips:)

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 4:35am
ivars
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Since institution of FED,

Since institution of FED, average 10% treasury yearly yield has been 4,91%. Not sure if average yield of all debt notes is the same, but could be close ( depends on yield and share of bond in total debt).

Assignats which were backed 100% with liquid current assets of France and were used to finance wars lasted very much exactly 6 years:

According to Thomas Paine , who correctly predicted in 1796 that Britains currency will collapse in 1797 , average life time of paper currency ( with or without fractional gold support) is (since its based on FUTURE liquid assets to be bought with it- it has leverage built into system as only 4,91% of current liquid assets serves as base for total 100% high power money supply=USA debt) :

(100%/Average interest rate)* 6 =x

Since Britain was forced off gold standard in 1797, and Bank of England was established in 1694, one can calculate back that average interest rate England paid on its bonds over 103 year period were ( x=103) :

100%*6/103= 5,82%

Given 4,91%, if no dramatic changes in average rate happens, USD can last

(100%/4,91%)*6= 122 years or till 1913+122= 2035 or another 20 years.

If with latest financial techniques rate suppression will continue and stay below 4,91%, it could last approximately 10 years more or till 2045.

This all indicates that its premature to write down USD already now; but that in 2035-2045 we are going to see battle- most like;y between USA and China ( Rocks and Roths into final stretch) about the monetary ( and so total) dominance over the world.

It could be, as in Englands case, that USA wins and USD stays; but history tells that once power has started to move in one direction its unstoppable, so China will win.

In any case total demise of USD is still far away; of course, according to Rock Roth agreement in the meantime it will share part of monetary reserve sphere with yuan since 2021, later-about 2026- also with Germany ( EUR?) and India, so there will be a temporary Tetrarchy of monetary centers which will be swept away by China latest by 2050.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 7:44am
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re: Swiss Gold

The timing of the referendum is interesting within this paradigm both as it relates to AM's pivot dates and maybe as it relates to interesting things that happened around WW2 ie Nazi gold and international banksters and all that jazz. And interesting as a possible indicator of a power struggle. Trying to understand who this "ultra" conservative party (western MSM name) is and there goal takes more than a few googles. CNBC wrote it's nonsense and that gold is in a 6000 year bubble. That's some bubble eh?

Essentially none of the calls for repatriation have been successful. Now with France and Switzerland, that might not be the point in all of this. Taking gold away from banksters and covert military operations are fightin' words. Looking at the shadows behind the curtain of words is something Farrell is good at because it takes alot of time and research.

The extreme volatility in weather from sub-freezing to luke warm has my interest from a cycles/commodity perspective but don't see grains doing what the Kondratieff and elliot wave writings suggest should be happening as an indicator as a commodity bullmarket. But I've not spent that much time looking at past analogues.

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 8:25am
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Swiss Reject SNB Gold Initiative, SRF Projections Show

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 8:43am jolidacrown
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jolidacrown

jolidacrown wrote:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/swiss-voters-reject-snb-gold-referendum-srf-projections-show.html

If we consider that the vote went in favor of the Central BAnkers desires hence the IMF, one could read this decision as a bearish sentiment coming from the IMF. Is that not something we've been looking for?

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 11:09am Green Lantern
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Timely Articles.....

Sorry, no link for Edelson. It was posted on a public blog. And this one too. Cheers.

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

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Gold’s Next Bull Market …

Larry Edelson | Wednesday, November 26, 2014 at 7:30 am

Almost no one thought gold and silver could ever get hit as hard as they’ve been. Not even the likes of big gold investors like George Soros … John Paulson … Rick Rule … Jimmy Rogers, and many others.

The thing is, they don’t really understand the gold market. They thought they did, but they failed miserably.

They failed to understand that the gold and silver markets are like any other market. What goes up for 11 years straight has a very high probability of pulling back for two to three years. That’s simple technical analysis, and those high-flying money managers didn’t even get that right.

They also failed to understand that central bank money-printing is not always bullish for precious metals.

There are times where no amount of money-printing can inflate gold and silver prices because, very simple again, either investors are too scared to do anything with their money … or they see better opportunities elsewhere, like in stocks.

Big gold investors, like George Soros, thought they understood the gold market, but they failed miserably.

I could go on and on about how the bigwigs missed most or all of the correction in gold and silver and how many billions they and others lost.

But there’s no need for that. But for a short period last year, I got it right, and I helped my readers and subscribers avoid steep losses, and helped them make pretty big profits to boot.

So instead, I want to now turn your attention to what the next bull market will look like for gold and silver — to the forces that will drive metals higher again — once gold and silver finally do bottom.

The bottom isn’t here yet. But by preparing you for the future and for what will drive precious metals higher again once the bottom does come — you will be light years ahead of other investors.

First, and perhaps most importantly, central bank money-printing will NOT be the major force driving precious metals prices higher in the future.

So let me be perfectly clear, if you’re counting solely or largely on central bank money-printing to drive gold and silver prices through the roof in the next leg up, then you’ll miss the real reasons the metals will go higher.

Money-printing, this time largely in Japan and Europe, will be a force, but it will not be nearly as strong a force as it was in the metals first leg up from 2000 to 2011.

The reason is simple: Between the towering inferno of as much as $158 trillion of global debt with weak underpinnings and derivatives bets that now approach more than $1.2 QUADRILLION in notional value …

There is simply no way central banks could ever print enough money to stabilize the global monetary system.

So print or not, the next leg up in the precious metals will not be driven by money-printing. It will be driven largely by a breakdown in the global monetary system.

A breakdown in the global monetary system means there will be big banks and financial institutions going belly up … sovereign nations, especially in Europe going bust … Washington going bust … and sovereign bond markets collapsing to 10 cents on the dollar.

Money-printing will not solve or prevent or even delay those things from happening in the next several years. Period.

Gold and silver, once they do bottom, will start rising again because savvy investors are finally beginning to realize that their Emperors really do have no clothes, and all the money-printing in the world won’t be able to cover that up.

Second, inflation will NOT be a major force either. Don’t get me wrong. We do face higher inflation in the years ahead. But that part of gold and silver’s next leg up is still a ways off and won’t arrive until late 2015 or early 2016.

And even then it won’t be a big factor: Reason, despite what most pundits say, the U.S. willnever face hyperinflation.

The reasons are simple: First, despite all the flaws in the U.S. dollar, it’s still the world’s reserve currency. And when the rest of the world, again, mainly Japan and Europe, are having so much trouble, it means the dollar will be a magnet for capital, keeping it from plunging into an abyss, thereby avoiding hyperinflation.

Second, is the size of our debt markets. They too are, like the dollar, an exorbitant privilege we have over the rest of the world. Come any signs of major inflation, the bond vigilantes will send rates higher, killing much higher inflation rates in their tracks.

Bottom line: Do not count on inflation to drive gold and silver prices higher going forward. If you do, you will be completely befuddled when gold and silver prices rise, yet there’s no sign of inflation on the immediate horizon.

Third, are the war cycles I’ve been warning you about. In previous articles, I’ve told you how the impact of the war cycles is already beginning to show in many different geo-political realms.

In Syria, in North Korea, in the Cyprus confiscation of depositor assets, in Russia’s moves in Ukraine, in China and Japan’s war of words over the Senkaku islands, in China’s moves in the South China Sea and more.

This is going to ultimately be the most important force driving precious metals higher. It will coincide with the first force above, the collapse of the world’s monetary system.

It will be a nasty set of conditions where governments are at war militarily or financially with each other …

And where governments are at war with their own citizens — repressing more and more liberties and personal freedoms, chasing down assets to tax and confiscate, and more.

In other words, total upheaval of modern society, coupled with a collapse of the global monetary system.

In a nutshell, those are the real reasons gold and silver prices will soar in their next leg up. Not inflation alone. Not money-printing alone. Not even currency devaluations alone.

Get it right, and you will be buying gold and silver near their lows in 2015, when just about everyone else is throwing in the towel.

Right now, I still expect to see gold below $1,000 early next year. Then the bottom will be in.

Silver could fall to as low as $12.50, worst case.

After that, the lid will come off, and the precious metals will begin their inevitable march higher, to $5,000 gold and at least $125 for silver.

For now, remain hedged up or outright bearish per my suggestions in these columns to use inverse ETFs. They are serving you well, with nice open gains.

And stay tuned!

Best wishes and Happy Thanksgiving,

Larry

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 12:05pm eclectic
ivars
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I think these advisors are

I think these advisors are changing their marketing songs too often..

But he is correct about coming war being the main driver, in my opinion Russia in Ukraine for starters, which in turn shall begin with a change of personalities in Russian government and-perhaps later- change of monetary system. And bottom is very close,in silver may be earlier...

I wonder will it be outright nationalization of Russian CB or something more sophisticated but essentially the same- 100% government current asset backed-not reserve backed =unlevereged fiat. 100% printing press at work. 6 year lifetime for that one. It is a big stakes, all in game . One of the reasons World Wars do not last longer then that, usually.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 2:26pm
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George Soros was present...

for the annual Turkey Pardon Ceremony...& Thanksgiving dinner at the Whitehouse...with all the trimmings!...However...George could not resist commenting on "the bashful turkey"!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 7:21pm
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This looks like it will be

This looks like it will be considered the second stage of the final downswing when looked back from a future time.

Gold-silver ratio now 78.42

Watch it carefully. At some point it's going to stop going down.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 7:33pm
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@ Argentus

I noticed that Gold gapped down right at the open and although Silver had a small gap down at the open - it did not really gap down before 00:40. Usually they are pretty much "walking in lock-step". Do you have an idea, why Silver held up for 40 minutes before diving?

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 8:20pm
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Long term holdings increased

Long term holdings increased by approx 6% in proportion 1:50 Au:Ag after PMs gapped and accellerated down during the Far East spot market session.

This is a momentum peak type buy, therefore it is likely to drive lower and give another better price.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 8:24pm Lamenting Laverne
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@LL: I don't have a good

@LL: I don't have a good answer for that. My mind turns to things like concentration of effort on moving one asset at a time through support ...... If anyone has a better idea I'd certainly like to hear it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 9:38pm
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Cycles, History, and Prediction by Grant Williams

A really good presentation - does Kondratiev and Schumpeter proud with a walk through history and a reference to Nixon as the "dick" we now know him as. Must watch and even show others

Grant Williams: The Consequences of Economic Peace

The supporting document:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/242348656/TTMYGH-The-Consequences-of-the-Econ...

Thanks for this thread AM

Mon, Dec 1, 2014 - 3:45am
ivars
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Silver is moving towards its

Silver is moving towards its final bottom quite fast..could be we are in final leg of that. My problem is, dry powder may come only by January so perhaps I will miss the bottom... 13,5 was all the time my bet since August I guess .. Will there be a spike lower- could be. With gold at 1050 and GSR 84, silver could hit 1050/84 = 12,5.

Gold will hit bottom some time after that, with silver already on the rise.

Though..there could be still a retraction in GSR now that it hit the top of the channel. Could be. Could also not be as spike continues until it breaks down:

Lets see if GSR moves outside the channel when CME trading will begin today.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Dec 1, 2014 - 3:48am
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How low can we go?

randomness