The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 3:27pm
Solsson
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Gold chart from 1999

Gold chart from 1999 bottoming phase.

And bottoming phase of today, very similar, isn't it.

and then 8 weeks later, this happened!
(a spike up to the 200 SMA)

Respond from Alex the Chart Freak:

  • I have studied the 1999 area a lot. There are differences at this point in price and the main action on a weekly , but you're right when it comes to many indicators having a similar reaction at recent lows.

    What I mean by price action then vs now ...1996 to 1999 lows as a form of triple bottom too, but that one broke down and continued lower for 8-10 wks . The recent triple bottom that we have on a 3 yr chart is (At this point ) what I have been pointing out along the way - A fast shake out . It didnt break down in crash form and continue lower for weeks (MOST are expecting that continued drop to $800 - $1000 , and therefore have not positioned long). Thus it could leave them behind if it pops higher. Thx for writing...you are correct on the similar indicators.

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 4:00pm Solsson
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It's all about how many

It's all about how many pivots this rally takes out before stopping, and how many pivots are given up when the next pullback begins.

Either the buyers surge in at present levels (approx) as sentiment changes or price gets to go another phase lower to trigger that.

Gold is now re-entering the popular mind and media. Look at the Swiss initiative, the Marie lePen open letter to their Central Bank about a French gold audit, the Italian referendum project for leaving the Euro gaining momentum, the Asian CB purchases being openly discussed, the Dutch CB 122 tonne gold retrieval, Deutsche Bank research kite flying about gold acquisition from EU citizenry by the CBs and the like.

To knock it down here would take enormous resources just as they are getting stretched to the limit. Their (Au bears & Co.) cost:payback ratio must be looking pretty poor by now.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 4:06pm Solsson
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Solsson wrote: .... I was

Solsson wrote:
.... I was worried that you was on the same track as some others out there about a new lower low before Christmas. I am a value investor trying to ride/trade the swings between asset classes. I am always long term. ...

I see the support levels at 1050, 850, 450 for sure. They are real. But I think that the callers for those levels to be visited by price now are seriously underestimating the strength of 1097 which I think will prove to have incredible buying potential if touched. COMEX well knows it's own limitations....

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 5:21pm argentus maximus
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FYI - More Comments

I add a couple of supporting points to AM's mind and media comment,

There was Greenspan - "...gold is a currency..." - no less

And Yves Mersch at the ECB said gold was one of those assets (first mentioned, I believe) they could spend those QE Euros on.

And on BNN recently, our good friend Jeff Christian was out - to me that is usually at a critical juncture and perhaps in this video, he's just buying cover and acknowledging gold should go up from 1180 to "...1220 this year..."

https://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=494725

Wed, Nov 19, 2014 - 2:45 PM BNN speaks with Jeffrey Christian, Managing Director, CMP Group about where we can expect the price of gold to go from here. Christian does not see Russia diversifying its reserves into gold as a significant event in the long-term and sees the current $1,180 level as the bottom for the bullion price.

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 6:01pm
my mothers keeper
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netdania has gold @1382 and rising

netdania.com has gold @ 1382 and rising...

and when kitco opened, the price on netdania reset itself...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-25/something-appears-be-going-gold

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 6:03pm
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All downtrends taken out.

All downtrends taken out. Hah! Holiday-itis .... or something that's going to hold ... hopefully.

Now to see if it holds.

Gold silver ratio at 81.72.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 6:13pm
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The banksters must make money...

as they are tired of waiting!...I can guarantee they will sell it off by the morning...& when the markets open...gold will be back down under $1200...unless of course...there is big big news!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 6:35pm
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Here it is in XAU-EUR

Here it is in XAU-EUR:

Above the one minute chart showing the algo bids upwards and subsequent drop.

Below the weekly showing the April 2013 "gap" which traders "stops" were targeted.

GSR back to 71.995 ... awwwww!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 6:50pm
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I can't wait to read the

I can't wait to read the official excuse/explanation for that. File it under fantasy fiction when it comes out.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 7:05pm
Nick Elway
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Prechter's Wave

Is it a bad thing when Prechter gets bullish?

Quote:

... [there has been] a recent sea change in sentiment toward gold. [It] does not reflect the breadth of bearishness that existed in 2001, but it's negative enough for an intermediate-term low.

Other measures of investor psychology concur. Two weeks before gold's September 2011 peak, the 5-day Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) rose to 96% gold bulls, a record optimistic extreme that dates back to April 1987, when the data start. Last week, on November 5, the 5-day DSI fell to just 5%, a record pessimistic extreme. So far, that is the day of the daily closing low for gold at $1140.52.

Seems to say we finished (A) (3 years) and (B) high should be 1430 to 1500 before we start the (C) wave. I have trouble believing we'll have to wait so long from now (is that 5 years to 2019?) to finish (C) . I wonder what the charts would look like in inflation-adjusted dollars and in Shadow Stat's inflation-adjusted dollars.

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 7:19pm BagOfGold
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Today was predictably very

Today was predictably very robust. More time than not followed by a sell off, how steep, we'll have to see, so I agree.

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 8:57pm
Hammer
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I read that it was because

I read that it was because there were no actual markets open at the time so.............and then a data feed from someone's platform. Anyone got anything better ?

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 9:59pm
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Harvey predicts fireworks in 3 days time...

34 minutes into this interview from TruNews. apologies if this has been posted already. Basically, the mother of all short-squeezes. The one we've been waiting for...

TRUNEWS 11/25/14: Larry Pratt & Harvey Organ - The International Gold & Silver Ponzi Scheme
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 4:00am argentus maximus
ivars
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Would such spike hit the

Would such spike hit the stops or if its just a technical glitch it won't last long enough to fulfill orders?

When I last traded some time ag0 , there was some similar spike in instrument i traded ( forgot what it was) but my platform did not change my position, did not react to it.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 4:04am
ivars
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This could be interesting

This could be interesting support as well-Swiss gold poll- although its priced in ( NO vote) , it still may provide temporary support short term until the facts are clear.

https://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/focus-swiss-no-vote-could-still-have-implications-for-gold-market-hsbc-85698/

Quote:

On Sunday, voters in Switzerland will decide whether or not to outlaw further gold sales from the Swiss National Bank, to make physical bullion at least 20 percent of the bank’s assets and whether to repatriate Swiss-owned gold.

But support for the ‘Save our Swiss Gold’ initiative appears to be slipping, with the latest poll having the ‘yes’ vote at 38 percent, with 47 percent against and 15 percent undecided.

The results of the poll, conducted by research institute gfs.bern and Swiss broadcaster SRG, are in line with a previous poll by news organisation 20 Minuten, which said that public support for the ‘yes’ vote had fallen to 38 percent from 45 percent.

“The bulk of opinion in the market appears to favour a ‘no’ vote and although a rejection of the provision by voters would not be surprise, it could deal a modest psychological blow to the market and help reaffirm the bear trend in prices,” HSBC said in a report on Tuesday.

“[But] we believe a “no” vote is priced in by the market and would not expect a significant impact on gold prices,” it added.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 8:24am
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I added some physical,

I added some physical, Philharmonics in Au, to the long term portfolio. Effect about plus 8%.

If a shakeout downswing forms this is buying high, but it doesn't have to do a final shakeout since we are within the most interesting period. So this a little insurance for the event of a breakout without such a final downswing. If it drops to a lower level I'll have no problem adding more.

Other markets:

Today and tomorrow - stocks, especially Aussie stocks, can set a firm level to move away from. It could do the same for metals, or alternatively the metals might wait until first week of December to take their cue. On balance I would expect a reversal to the downside.

So stop entry order set above and below today+tomorrows price range eg in the AllOrds, with an extremely close stop exit can allow price itself to make the decision. At least that is what I would do if I were to trade that scenario. But I'm just planning to observe. I'm not advising anybody to do anything it's a conversation only with my thoughts on markets voiced aloud.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 9:04am Nick Elway
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Pretcher, etc.

Great visuals Nick! Thank you for posting. FWIW, I also do not agree w/Pretcher's count. He is overlooking the fact that gold did NOT make a lower low on 5/16/2012 at 1527. compared to 1522 on 12/29/2011. That would negate his wave (1) down as a leading diagonal. I like to evaluate prices based on the London Fix; not futures. I do believe that the entire move down from August 23, 2011 (the high in London) is a completed A of I at 1130 this month. For practical purposes however, it's till bullish; but his bigger count is going to be off. Just my 2-cents.

Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - 11:37am
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Look at Oil.  Didn't Ilya and

Look at Oil. Didn't Ilya and the idiot Geoff warn us about this back in May? "USD generational low" he said in May. Oil to be bear market and go to 50$. What a wonderful forecast it was. This forum needs forcasts rather than people commetning on every little blip in Gold and Silver. This is not a place for pros only for shows.

Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 4:03am
ivars
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This oil drop will cause

This oil drop will cause about 6% GDP drop for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan reducing their ruling clans claims to power and adding to the instability in the region. They are becoming legitimate takeover targets for Russians.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 7:34am ivars
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ivars wrote:This oil drop

ivars wrote:
This oil drop will cause about 6% GDP drop for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan reducing their ruling clans claims to power and adding to the instability in the region. They are becoming legitimate takeover targets for Russians.

Or, this oil drop will reduce Russia's oil revenue and make it harder for them to afford starting conflict in other places.

We can play this game all day, it is just using the news to justify what you already think. I'm sure someone has warned against this, hmm who could that be?

randomness