Today was predictably very robust. More time than not followed by a sell off, how steep, we'll have to see, so I agree.
I read that it was because there were no actual markets open at the time so.............and then a data feed from someone's platform. Anyone got anything better ?
34 minutes into this interview from TruNews. apologies if this has been posted already. Basically, the mother of all short-squeezes. The one we've been waiting for...
Would such spike hit the stops or if its just a technical glitch it won't last long enough to fulfill orders?
When I last traded some time ag0 , there was some similar spike in instrument i traded ( forgot what it was) but my platform did not change my position, did not react to it.
This could be interesting support as well-Swiss gold poll- although its priced in ( NO vote) , it still may provide temporary support short term until the facts are clear.
Quote: On Sunday, voters in Switzerland will decide whether or not to outlaw further gold sales from the Swiss National Bank, to make physical bullion at least 20 percent of the bank’s assets and whether to repatriate Swiss-owned gold. But support for the ‘Save our Swiss Gold’ initiative appears to be slipping, with the latest poll having the ‘yes’ vote at 38 percent, with 47 percent against and 15 percent undecided. The results of the poll, conducted by research institute gfs.bern and Swiss broadcaster SRG, are in line with a previous poll by news organisation 20 Minuten, which said that public support for the ‘yes’ vote had fallen to 38 percent from 45 percent. “The bulk of opinion in the market appears to favour a ‘no’ vote and although a rejection of the provision by voters would not be surprise, it could deal a modest psychological blow to the market and help reaffirm the bear trend in prices,” HSBC said in a report on Tuesday. “[But] we believe a “no” vote is priced in by the market and would not expect a significant impact on gold prices,” it added.
On Sunday, voters in Switzerland will decide whether or not to outlaw further gold sales from the Swiss National Bank, to make physical bullion at least 20 percent of the bank’s assets and whether to repatriate Swiss-owned gold.
But support for the ‘Save our Swiss Gold’ initiative appears to be slipping, with the latest poll having the ‘yes’ vote at 38 percent, with 47 percent against and 15 percent undecided.
The results of the poll, conducted by research institute gfs.bern and Swiss broadcaster SRG, are in line with a previous poll by news organisation 20 Minuten, which said that public support for the ‘yes’ vote had fallen to 38 percent from 45 percent.
“The bulk of opinion in the market appears to favour a ‘no’ vote and although a rejection of the provision by voters would not be surprise, it could deal a modest psychological blow to the market and help reaffirm the bear trend in prices,” HSBC said in a report on Tuesday.
“[But] we believe a “no” vote is priced in by the market and would not expect a significant impact on gold prices,” it added.
I added some physical, Philharmonics in Au, to the long term portfolio. Effect about plus 8%.
If a shakeout downswing forms this is buying high, but it doesn't have to do a final shakeout since we are within the most interesting period. So this a little insurance for the event of a breakout without such a final downswing. If it drops to a lower level I'll have no problem adding more.
Today and tomorrow - stocks, especially Aussie stocks, can set a firm level to move away from. It could do the same for metals, or alternatively the metals might wait until first week of December to take their cue. On balance I would expect a reversal to the downside.
So stop entry order set above and below today+tomorrows price range eg in the AllOrds, with an extremely close stop exit can allow price itself to make the decision. At least that is what I would do if I were to trade that scenario. But I'm just planning to observe. I'm not advising anybody to do anything it's a conversation only with my thoughts on markets voiced aloud.
Great visuals Nick! Thank you for posting. FWIW, I also do not agree w/Pretcher's count. He is overlooking the fact that gold did NOT make a lower low on 5/16/2012 at 1527. compared to 1522 on 12/29/2011. That would negate his wave (1) down as a leading diagonal. I like to evaluate prices based on the London Fix; not futures. I do believe that the entire move down from August 23, 2011 (the high in London) is a completed A of I at 1130 this month. For practical purposes however, it's till bullish; but his bigger count is going to be off. Just my 2-cents.
Look at Oil. Didn't Ilya and the idiot Geoff warn us about this back in May? "USD generational low" he said in May. Oil to be bear market and go to 50$. What a wonderful forecast it was. This forum needs forcasts rather than people commetning on every little blip in Gold and Silver. This is not a place for pros only for shows.
This oil drop will cause about 6% GDP drop for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan reducing their ruling clans claims to power and adding to the instability in the region. They are becoming legitimate takeover targets for Russians.
ivars wrote: This oil drop will cause about 6% GDP drop for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan reducing their ruling clans claims to power and adding to the instability in the region. They are becoming legitimate takeover targets for Russians.
Or, this oil drop will reduce Russia's oil revenue and make it harder for them to afford starting conflict in other places.
We can play this game all day, it is just using the news to justify what you already think. I'm sure someone has warned against this, hmm who could that be?
Gold has hit some resistance again..more downside expected.
Have a nice weekend swallow your turkey carefully, you do not want to choke.
Swiss shiver ? Should have sold my position a couple of days ago, thought a NO was priced in. And then, should have sold three and ½ years ago. If NO on Sunday, maybe I will start bottom fishing on Monday with my real estate loan. It is so easy these days, no phone calls, no check, no control, no papers to sign, no valuation of my real estate. Just a click at your closest internet bank and a couple of days later you are almost a millionaire in Swedish fiat. I really like this fractional banking system and money printing ! I do not understand why some people complain?
Holiday long weekend time is upon us.
First we go up to the sky, a couple of days ago, and now we drop down to the floor!
We have seen all this before.
Of course this is the best time, this month, during final trading days of futures, to try for a new low in gold and silver, and neither has been achieved yet.
We'll soon see if the bears still retain enough clout to achieve their aims. For now, both metals are both above support and under the long term trend, that is to say still within the inflection.
Yesterday GSR reached new highs with both metals moving down, silver faster in relative terms-as expected and as it usually happens:
It looks more and more likely that negative Swiss gold vote will- as OPEC decision for oil- even though priced in- start the final sellof in PMs- which could last - according to earlier charts about FIBO convergence of expected Russian event impact on gold- 1 month and then perhaps keep around bottom-bottoming out - for another month. It depends on Russian USA tensions, but my scenario is that they will increase in market opinion from that point on, as winter comes to close. flade sees opposite direction-we shall see very soon who is right or is truth still somewhere in the middle.
As far as I know Russians and estimate Putin, they are not rational, has a big mystical element guiding their actions. And Putin is an adrenaline seeking high stakes gambler. My opinion is based on similarities in character /behavior to Hitler he exposes (more important than differences). Putin's is holding tactical nukes close to his chest, his only strong card with which to scare Europe and test China. Approximately 10000 pcs (if not more if part of Soviet 40 000 stockpiles have not been really destroyed as agreed with the USA) compared to almost 0 for China/Europe.
After oil price will bottom - in few months- with current ruble value or lower, nothing can prevent Russia from turning on printing press to rearm; from history ( French assignats during French Revolution) it is known that government printed money lasts for about 7 years before complete annihilation. This puts a deadline for Putin to compensate - as French tried as well then- this printing and devaluation with asset resource looting by military force. If Russia changes its monetary regime say in early 2015, it has time till about 2020 to compensate it by entering and winning wars. If it does not change its monetary regime soon, it has already lost.
If it wins the wars as Lincoln did in Civil war, its paper money (greenbacks in Lincoln case) will survive, and so will the country (Empire).
That was the same thing Germany did from 1936 when it replaced Hjalmaar Schacht with Gering as Minister of Economy. And after 5 years it was forced to attack Russia as printing press was pointing towards the end of Reich mark after 5 years of uneconomical rearmament. Returns from winning wars in Europe were too low; Germany needed something HUGE to save it.
So in fact the choice for WWIII will be made in early 2015 by Russian monetary regime choice. After that monetary autopilot (with help of world bankers) takes over.
I think this change in Russian monetary regime- showing its intents to increase confrontation and the need for military aggression to keep its NEW monetary system functioning- will mark the bottom in gold.
Will not pass. Probaly all just one big noise event. They will never allow for gold to be in the lime light. the fact remains is that the cycles will determine how this all will play out. The news is all about gold now has anyone noticed. all the states are playing their cards. Big wars going on behind the scenes.
Will see how it plays out. NOte that AM keeps indicating he's been long and just recently purchaced some Au.
I see Ilya has been brought back to life. let's see what will occur next on the boards.
Is turd still saying buy the dips:)
Since institution of FED, average 10% treasury yearly yield has been 4,91%. Not sure if average yield of all debt notes is the same, but could be close ( depends on yield and share of bond in total debt).
Assignats which were backed 100% with liquid current assets of France and were used to finance wars lasted very much exactly 6 years:
According to Thomas Paine , who correctly predicted in 1796 that Britains currency will collapse in 1797 , average life time of paper currency ( with or without fractional gold support) is (since its based on FUTURE liquid assets to be bought with it- it has leverage built into system as only 4,91% of current liquid assets serves as base for total 100% high power money supply=USA debt) :
(100%/Average interest rate)* 6 =x
Since Britain was forced off gold standard in 1797, and Bank of England was established in 1694, one can calculate back that average interest rate England paid on its bonds over 103 year period were ( x=103) :
Given 4,91%, if no dramatic changes in average rate happens, USD can last
(100%/4,91%)*6= 122 years or till 1913+122= 2035 or another 20 years.
If with latest financial techniques rate suppression will continue and stay below 4,91%, it could last approximately 10 years more or till 2045.
This all indicates that its premature to write down USD already now; but that in 2035-2045 we are going to see battle- most like;y between USA and China ( Rocks and Roths into final stretch) about the monetary ( and so total) dominance over the world.
It could be, as in Englands case, that USA wins and USD stays; but history tells that once power has started to move in one direction its unstoppable, so China will win.
In any case total demise of USD is still far away; of course, according to Rock Roth agreement in the meantime it will share part of monetary reserve sphere with yuan since 2021, later-about 2026- also with Germany ( EUR?) and India, so there will be a temporary Tetrarchy of monetary centers which will be swept away by China latest by 2050.
The timing of the referendum is interesting within this paradigm both as it relates to AM's pivot dates and maybe as it relates to interesting things that happened around WW2 ie Nazi gold and international banksters and all that jazz. And interesting as a possible indicator of a power struggle. Trying to understand who this "ultra" conservative party (western MSM name) is and there goal takes more than a few googles. CNBC wrote it's nonsense and that gold is in a 6000 year bubble. That's some bubble eh?
Essentially none of the calls for repatriation have been successful. Now with France and Switzerland, that might not be the point in all of this. Taking gold away from banksters and covert military operations are fightin' words. Looking at the shadows behind the curtain of words is something Farrell is good at because it takes alot of time and research.
The extreme volatility in weather from sub-freezing to luke warm has my interest from a cycles/commodity perspective but don't see grains doing what the Kondratieff and elliot wave writings suggest should be happening as an indicator as a commodity bullmarket. But I've not spent that much time looking at past analogues.
jolidacrown wrote: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/swiss-voters-reject-snb-gold-referendum-srf-projections-show.html
If we consider that the vote went in favor of the Central BAnkers desires hence the IMF, one could read this decision as a bearish sentiment coming from the IMF. Is that not something we've been looking for?