When prominent Banksters begin saying things like this, I am assured that holding gold is a good idea:
Solsson, I wasn't trying to be mean spirited. And I always enjoy your comments, good disposition and declaring your quandary publicly. To be more complete and focus only on the content I heard after 5 minutes, I asked myself did I learn something I didn't know and did he answer the question that was asked? And I guess he did when he declared a bottom without any caveats. He might not know how to give himself wiggle room in an interview. Maybe he feels to be accepted he must give very rigid predictions.
He spend five minutes giving platitudes. What goes up must come down and vice versa. When silver and gold were near it's high, everybody thought it couldn't go down. Now that's it low, everybody is burnt out and thinks it can't go up. And I guess there is some truth to that and stating the obvious is good to take up interview time but not very enlightening especially to readers here.
And then the topic went into how silver follows gold etc.... Oh yeah, he said something like when time runs out the cycle must turn. What exactly does that mean? What cycle? Of what time length? I am not sure. He gives nothing away about his analysis, not saying he should, or how he arrived at his conclusion. Maybe that happens later. I don't want him to give away his techniques but for me to want to listen more, he has to support his statements.
He went on record to say we were at the bottom (fair enough) and that he told his subscribers to go long over the weekend and it went up. Of course, to his credit. At the end of the day, no heinous crimes committed. All very general. One prediction not supported by much and nothing that made me want to continue. That was the thinking that went through my brain. But than again, I'm getting older and all my synapses' don't fire as strongly as they used to.
No fed charts, no shadow stats, no gov or MSM reports. A different sort of newsflow which to me are some of the best. Just a simple guy, small businessman that makes Irish Flutes. I might have to start visiting the music forums more often to get what's going on in the economy. Too much MSM flow around here.
Am noticing something unusual with Folk Flute orders. Usually these cluster around the end or beginning of the month paydays. Well this time (last week of October and first week of November) it has been quiet. I have picked up a few other orders. It used to be that the pace of orders coming in matched what was reported about the economy a few months hence. If so, this is kind of an ominous sign. Gas prices are falling so one would think people have more money. But I think they are falling due to the recognition that you can only squeeze so much blood out of the collective turnip....
"And GSR kind of has to hit 80, does it not? around 80 has been the top since 1995 3 times - it has never reached much higher ( 80- 84 is the range), and has not really stopped at below 80 if it has passed 75- which it has this time as well:"
Let's dig a bit further back in time, and these statements break down.
Prior to the triple tops at 80 that you mentioned, we had two 100-ish GSR tops, so your statement is not correct.
Leading up to the last 100 top, the GSR reached and then breached your quoted level of 75, before promptly and violently falling to 55, prior to later rising again. In the condensed timeframe of the chart, this drop and reversal look like a brief affair, but it wouldn't have felt like it at the time. Anybody then playing that GSR would likely have believed that the top was in at 75, and missed the final top of 100.
Lastly, there is one fundamental assumption that you make in your forecasting of a higher GSR from here; you seem only to be assuming that it can be achieved from a silver price that continues to fall. Why? It can also be achieved by a static silver price while gold resumes its bull alone, or by metals both rising from here, but gold rising faster.
The GSR is a fascinating topic, but needs to be considered with caution, and a lot of historical perspective. :-)
Well that makes even 100 likely, then. I did say 3 tops at 80-84 after 1995..I think that was correct, talking about current era.
Are there historic cases when GSR tops matches gold bull instead of silver dip? I am not sure about things happening in 2003 or 1996 peaks. But in general high GSR correlates with both metals being priced lower, does it not? Just silver is usually reaching bottom before or after gold, not at the same time, hence its bottom usually coincides with GSR spike? Silver is more volatile, so its price defines really rare ( like >80) tops and bottoms in GSR, usually. Or I am totally wrong here?
Just messin about with crayons and taking plenty of liberties :) I'm sure no serious chartist would pay any heed to my amateur scribblings whatsoever - this nonsense below would see some g/s ratio go into some kind of mad freefall never yet seen on the chart so can be safely ignored as a possibility I think. just sometimes i see things and have to play like a kid on a piece of blank paper with some coloured crayons. Forgive my naievety
1967 was interesting Canada reduced their dime silver content from 80% to 50%. The US moved over to change a little earlier with the coin act of 1965
then checked out 1919 and found this
1920 Canada reduced their dime content from 92.5% to 80% (until 1967). The US stayed at 90% during that time just changing the design. Britain went from sterling (92,5%) to 50% in 1920 (from 1947 there was no silver in any coin - I assume due to being broke after WW2).
Hammer said: " I'm sure no serious chartist would pay any heed to my amateur scribblings ..."
But I pay great attention to the chart you just posted.
I have been making the point to RNPers for the last couple of months that we are in a similar time to teh post World War 2 period where state debts were intolerably high, and also similar to the mid to late 1860s, for two examples of analogous periods.
In the recent RNP webinar I desribed in some detail that the UK is buying back for cancellation non-redeemable-dated Churchill War Bonds yielding 4% because they are too expensive to service. The last time they did that was 67 years ago! 2015 - 67 = 1948!
A prior time low yield consols were issued was to finance the Napoleonic War which was done by (as one of two partners) the Rothschild family, so there is your circle completed, including: international war to international war, old bank-state relationship to renewed version, long term yield cycle, and previous period of negative real rates to return of same.
Check it, stocks went up, financial repression, depressed wages due to returned workers and women introduced into the workforce (illegals' amnesty sound familiar to US readers?) and a negative return on the aforesaid War Bonds, or as they were called then, Consols. A study of the debt-interest cycle is very interesting because it reveals what happened when all this came about before. And the top guys are so smart they are doing it all the same, but with modern tools in the modern context.
So when were low yielding government bonds issued in the past and what happened after? The swing up in yields takes approximately 32-36 years, which allows two 18 year stocks and one 36 year stocks cycles to fit in one debt bull or bear market.
Thanks for the post and illustrative chart Hammer.
Until 2008, there was what could be construed as reasonable mirror-like symmetry on the chart centered around the 1965-67 mark
2019 not impossible date for next gold high. By that time it should be clear that Russia will lose its war with China so gold war premium will start to decrease. I assume Russia will attack China or vice versa around 2017. The intent of Putin is to do it 2019/2020 when Russian rearmament program will be finished, but Chinese know as well that starting this war earlier would increase their chances to sure victory tremendously. Same old story as was between Germany and Russia. Hitler planned to attack Russia in 1943-1945 before competitors rearm. He was forced by Stalin to attack earlier, and that cost him Germany, and it cost Germany its sovereignty after 1500 years or more of sovereign German tribes and princely states and finally Empire.
So yes, 2019 is Ok ..as it will become clear Russia is going to lose, gold price will move down as USA and China with Europe and India on margins will undertake rebuilding of new monetary system...not based on gold, of course, at first, on paper remnibi, USD.
I was thinking earlier it may be 2017, but then Russian advances will not make China a clear winner yet, so gold may fluctuate near top until second front in Europe/ Middle East is started by the USA. Which may well be 2019 as USA will stay out of this war again as long as possible. I guess the factor which will draw USA in this time will be someone attacking Israel.
Good work, Hammer!
So, the big trade looks like starting early 2015 and ending 2019. Not bad. Only I will be in occupied territories for part fo that time...not sure how to avoid that and were to place immense profits from the big trade:)
JPM is first that comes to mind, USA branches. Do not know though whether they allow citizens of other countires to open accounts.
QE since 2008 (which is the bit that is bugging me from a symmetrical perspective - that may very well just be me looking at it in a completely wrong way mind you) has pushed out the timings, so it may be further out than that ? Or, possibly result in a much bigger faster snapback than history has suggested so far from the chart available anyway ? More questions than answers as always but great fun to stretch the liddel ole grey cells from time to time - keeps the mind young and healthy and that is more important than any old chart done with a couple of thick crayons :)
P.S. Timeframe wise if the symmetry does hold, it would be before 2019 Ivars.
2017? That was my initial thought as as soon as Russia attacks China war has in principle ended with Russian loss even if it were just started by then. But somehow I saw 2019 in Your picture, which is obviously wrong as triangle touches ground prior to that calendar point.
Easy Ivar's :) I am just a kid taking liberties as I said earlier with a couple of thick crayons......:)
will I also do not believe it wil be an overnight move, I think we have to look to see what happened in early 2011 to see what can occur once a fire is ignited.
Charts do tell a good story. We have so many of us and others sitting on the sidelines looking for entry points that I think that we can see a fire ignited rather quickly, plus the supply issue helps.
Craig has discussed it before when shorts (hedgies) have to close their shorts and then go long. We in this cycle have not come close to seeing a real short cover squeeze, which quickly morphs into a long buying spree.
We have such an unloved sector right now--plus I figure all those that have dissed metals from 250 to 1900, then poured it on the last 3 years, will be getting in metals this next upswing. They will not want to miss the next leg up.
the analogy is me dissing the general stock market while its tripled (on the strength of printing and debasement which all along should be better for metals than stocks. However, when it (SPX) does selloff again, I probably will go long spy calls when I think we hit a bottom. . Or spxl calls.
I do plan to go long spxs calls to make money on the downside. Maybe do the triple inverse russell 2000. Something Gary Kaltbaum plans to do. Kranzler likes shorting housing--that shoudl have worked already. But the game continues. We are at teh point where the Fed has been saying that they manipulte teh fixed income market--so the rest is not a stretch, and now we have Gruber saying they manipulated data for healthcare--SOP right now. Lets deceive just like in 1920's Germany.
That was a very good catch; really
Mickey, I do NOT think Daneric's overall count is correct; but believe that wave A of II from 2011 ended this month at 1130.
Next stop would be your 1525 (circa); and perhaps 1800 depending on the shape and form of wave B of II.
(Flat vs Zigzag for example.)
The issue is whether we will see a pullback before then after the current set of impulsive waves to the upside.
A 61.8% retracement; or a test of the lows?
Sorry. The 8th chart down on the link. Cheers.
I am constantly flipping back and forth on not just TA but the various techniques within TA.
Depending on the "product" I am usually 2/3 fundies and 1/3 TA but I also see how many ways one can intrepret a chart, drawing lines, french curves etc.
the trump card is one day our system is going to break. Japan is knocking on the door now.
The US Debt to GDp is #9 among 189 countries--Mexico is better than we are, Iran and Russia and China re better--the only ones worst are Japan and 7 other Eurozone countries.
The President just signed something about amnesty for immigration.
did you or anybody see or hear any discussion of the cost of this? Buehler, anybody?
We are broke as a country, the states and individuals except maybe the top 1% who many will get creamed when the market collapses. Some, know whats going on and have protected themselves.
I know mega millionaires (over 50 mil) who do not believe in PM and are loaded up with hedge funds on one side of their asset pool, and index funds on the other.
bottom line--when this breaks, it breaks suddenly and big. Charts probably will not tell us when although I do think they are necessary for short term trading. How many times have we seen what we thought was a breakout, to get turned around suddenly by the games.
yeah--so I watch TA take it in, etc Once day a breakout in PM will keep on going.
by the way, I doubt many here think todays GDP was close to real.
Very little is real now. Yeah--even down to the COT reports, or GOFO.
ask Hagel, Gates and Panetta.
Defense Secretary: only accepting applications from "Yes" men. I have seen that in a number of organizations--you can't wait to get out.
I have been buying Jan otm options on gld slv GDX and GDXJ--and SSRI. Thats my set up. Plus my stacks. Which over this weekend I have to remind the kids when they come in where it is and how much there is so when I croak they know whats to be found.
GoldMania3000 wrote: .... we are probally getting close but i think AM belives we are going to have a final low/bottom before we go up. That could be our buying opporutunity one last moment before we drift back up. ......we need to get passed q1 2015 it looks like before we resume upward? my guess is that its not going to be obvious to everyone that the train left the station. but will see
I hope I am not being misunderstood. New lows are possible for Gold:USD but I now consider that event to be less than 50:50 odds.
I increased holdings during the last downswing by approx 10x the usual addition I have worked with during the last 2 years.
I posted this several times already but just to reiterate and be absolutely clear: I'm long.
Now I'm looking for safe opportunities for increased leverage, subject to retests or slight new lows and what comes. Counting on new lows? Not all that much, but they could happen and it wouldn't faze me because I have fully paid assets and no leverage on. I hope that in a short time I can find some support level to work with leverage safely.
There is a noticeable lack of hat tips on this thread to posts made during the recent short term rally. This interests me in a contrarian sort of way.
Wow this thread is on fire again :-) lovely chart there Hammer, a GSR at 16 before July 2019 fits my eye perfectly. I think the uniformed triangular shaped cycle is spot on ! The GSR is out of whack at the moment but there is a very strong possibility that would change in 2015 imho.
Green Latern, no worries, Bo Polny is not important, I consider him as entertainment only. I hope he is right thou, but it's highly unlikely.
Eclectic, yes I shall see if I have some info about the 1999, turn around, interesting stuff.
AM you mentioned something about getting into stocks a couple of months ago. As the no,1 analyst about qualified guesses I was worried that you was on the same track as some others out there about a new lower low before Christmas. I am a value investor trying to ride/trade the swings between asset classes. I am always long term. Underwater right now but that could all change in a hurry in 2015.