The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 12:31pm eclectic
ivars
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Hussman used same model- log

Hussman used same model- log periodic. crash did not happen- well it happens when other cycles are stronger. In stock case, there is linear relationship between FED balance sheet ( excess bank reserves) and stock prices, so application of log-periodic bubble model was without reason, though I believed in that then too. Possibly fit was not good enough to call it correctly as well. Nothing is exact science and there are no perfect tools but these allowed me to recognize the shape and call correctly both May 2011 silver and September 2011 gold crashes ( disregard the following spikes i predicted in 2012- they have nothing to do with log-periodic pattern analysis.)

https://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=50#p31020

https://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=230#p32176

While periodic is described mathematically as e.g.

f(t) = A*cos(w*t+phi)

Log periodic is simple- it is a function

f= B*cos(w*ln(t) + Phi)

Put it in excel; to see a bubble formation, one needs to add power function and critical time point, so its more complex, but possible to make chart in excel. Formula is here:

https://www2.math.su.se/matstat/reports/serieb/2009/rep7/report.pdf

Page 2. I am not doing it myself anymore as its too cumbersome to fit time series - need special software, feed etc. Scientists do it here:

https://www.er.ethz.ch/research/index

Applied to markets in current stage:

https://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/FCO-Cockpit-1November2014.pdf

But log -periodicity with power function combination helps to recognize potential bubbles, sometimes quite nicely. That is why I said earlier that USD /JPY bubble is tradable up to 124 or even 130. But then it will correct, potentially coinciding with gold or silver minimum.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 1:37pm
eclectic
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Ivars Blueprint?

Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 2:03pm ivars
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Simplify and ease ....

The are more ways of killing a cat ....

Is Elliott Wave simpler and just as effective?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 2:49pm argentus maximus
ivars
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Could be; for me Elliot waves

Could be; for me Elliot waves are more difficult, more arbitrary, log-periodic curves- easier to spot. But that is may be because of my university education in physics and math and lack of education and practice in usual trading models.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 2:59pm ivars
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It's a personal job - it

It's a personal job - it makes sense to use what you're best at.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 3:31pm
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The best and worst gold crosses

This is interesting as it shows that, after the Yen, Sterling is the next weakest against gold.

After that come Aussie Dollar, Euro and Suisse, and the strongest against gold is USD.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 5:17pm
GoldMania3000
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Haen't posted in a long time.

Haen't posted in a long time. Received an email from someone today and said we are getting close to a bottom. It was like the year 2000 when they started accumlating shares of miners, etc and they bought at the bottom. we are probally getting close but i think AM belives we are going to have a final low/bottom before we go up. That could be our buying opporutunity one last moment before we drift back up. yeah thigs r cheap now but some of the higher quality shares have boucned back nicely.

I can imagain if we see 1500 gold again some of those shares we be 2 or 3 baggers from today. Even i'm kind of burnt out from everything but started looking at some stuff.

we need to get passed q1 2015 it looks like before we resume upward? my guess is that its not going to be obvious to everyone that the train left the station. but will see

Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 5:17pm
GoldMania3000
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ebola

o yeah that turned out to be a big deal.

Sat, Nov 22, 2014 - 9:26am
eclectic
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Ivars

Thank you for your generous feedback on the details surrounding the concept of log-periodicity. I am one who obviously don't have your scientific talents. I know that some of your ideas have come under criticism; but I still like to hear your unique perspective; especially the Roths and Rocks saga. I think it adds to the mix of thought. Interesting stuff on EW posted by A.M. The log-periodic method is probably much more quantitative and scientific than the subjective analysis of counting and categorizing waves. But then again, I have my limitations. Cheers.

Sat, Nov 22, 2014 - 9:09pm ivars
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ivars wrote:Could be; for me

ivars wrote:

Could be; for me Elliot waves are more difficult, more arbitrary, log-periodic curves- easier to spot. But that is may be because of my university education in physics and math and lack of education and practice in usual trading models.

And that's the point. If we all knew the tricks of identifying the waves and how AM picks his points to draw his trend lines, identify inflection points, none of us would need to be here. The other thing is AM has so much experience looking at charts that when one system comes up short, he has other systems to analyze the same thing. Elliot Wave seems to get alot of things right and not that hard to count up 5, and then down a,b,c, but if it were that easy, we'd all be in the money. A good pitcher has more than a fast ball. A system works until it doesn't and then you are into the art.

Sun, Nov 23, 2014 - 4:15pm argentus maximus
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I am totally clueless at the

I am totally clueless at the moment, I do not know what to do. I am happy with my entry points, but if gold gets back to 1050. I guess it is time to subscribe to the mighty fine product called RNP. I've been Ok so far, looking at AM's roadmap.

Scenario 1: If I sell my position -> Gold spike to 1500 and Allied Nevada at $10

Scenario 2: If I stay in the market -> Gold crash to 1050 and Allied Nevada at 50c.

Reading all the internet gurus out there, it is a mixed bag of scenario 1 and 2

**************************Sunday Amusement****************************

This guy won me over, pointing out that working against a cycle is like hitting a drive into a hurricane at a headwind of 200-300mph (11min in):
https://player.vimeo.com/video/112451700

A troll or is he for real, that is for you to decide. It sounds a little bit too simple, almost childish to explain there is only cycles of 3*7, 21 and 42. Hmmm the number 42 sounds familiar, lifters guide to the galaxy perhaps.

Sun, Nov 23, 2014 - 6:59pm
SilverRunNW
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@Solsson

That video is an interview with Bo Polny and recently presented at the Silver Summit in Spokane. You said "A troll or is he for real... you decide". Well, I wouldn't see him as a troll whether his cycle predictions come to fruition or not. Troll just doesn't seem the right category of a term to give someone that has at least enough interest to be invited to present at the Silver Summit.

J.Christian also presented at the Silver Summit and troll wouldn't fit him either. Now, ass-hat would fit Jeffrey perfectly.

Sun, Nov 23, 2014 - 7:24pm
Green Lantern
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I made it through 4.53

I made it through 4.53 minutes and then turned it off. It sounded like a politician answering a question but never getting to the answer. When he asks the interviewer if he answered his about where we are in the gold cycle and the interviewer says ok. Hesitates and then moves on. Subscribe to R'n'P.

Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 5:45am
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Still bearish and awaiting lower lows

Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 6:47am Solsson
ivars
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My advice is do not try to

My advice is do not try to catch a bottom. If gold will move to 1500 USD it won't happen overnight. But it may well move below 1050 prior to that. According to my simple theory ( latest:)) if Russia does not really escalate Ukraine now, we have nto seen the bottom yet as this correction in gold seems to be related ( I posted a chart were tops coincided with Russia in action, or Russia influencing Obama's action) to overpricing the global geopolitical uncertainty after 1999 NATO incursions in Yugoslavia and Russia's reaction to them ( Putin as president, Chechen war Nr 2, etc all that follows after that);

When the price of gold will match or rather - since this is opposite move- go below this uncertainty level that is currently present, we will see the bottom. Now connecting to potential Russian actions, since - I think so - escalation in Ukraine is inevitable after/during March 2015 ( 1 year of Annexation of Crimea etc many other reasons may appear) , the bottom will happen prior to that, but has not yet happened as Russia continues to be quite soft for a moment. Also the USA, Europe is now not pressing, neither is Ukrainian government. Now its words, not actions. Winter and need for gas and hard currency keeps people sane on both sides with USA continuing to posture alone. When heating season- winter in Ukraine and Europe is over, actions will come, gold will start to move up.

Personally, I am looking for dry powder and ways to have it in mid January to deploy it for the big trade. I have some today as well, but bottom is not convincing at all. Of course, can not say about silver, whether it will bottom prior to ( usually) , at the same time or after the gold. Silver might be nearer its bottom which i thing lies at around 13,5 USD than gold.

Me thinks charts tell the same story if you take unbiased view. They are not showing bottom clearly, on the contrary , downtrend ( look at Pinning's drawing few pages ago) has not been clearly broken, and the bottom is not in if we look for symmetrical one with peak preceding trend change in Pinning' s drawing.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/628097#comment-628097

TO have a 5 comparable to the upswing before trend change, gold shall move about 10% lower. If there is bull panic then, it could move even 20% down from now before changing trend. 20% down is about 950... so its quite close in value.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 8:18am
ivars
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And GSR kind of has to hit

And GSR kind of has to hit 80, does it not? around 80 has been the top since 1995 3 times - it has never reached much higher ( 80- 84 is the range), and has not really stopped at below 80 if it has passed 75- which it has this time as well:

To me it looks like silver will hit lows first as gold is sitting relatively well, so GSR 80 would mean e.g. silver 13,5 and gold 1080. Or GSR 84 would mean silver 13,5 and gold 1134 USD. Which perhaps means silver bottom is pretty close...

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 3:21pm
Solsson
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Thank you SilverRunNW,

Thank you SilverRunNW, CarbonJunkie, Green Latern and ivars for your support !

Got an email today from Alex the chart freak, he still thinks that we are in a upward trend. I am not trying to sell Alex here, he is just generous with free info.

https://www.chartfreak.com/2014/11/23/comfortable-shorts/

Take advantage of the up trend, sell and get back in at the new low, sounds easy. Maybe the low is already in for miners, the selling early Nov was brutal, looked like classic capitulation. I bought it like there was no tomorrow.

AM has not bought any miners yet, not that I know of. Maybe the low for miners is not in yet.

Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 4:03pm
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You have to look at what is

You have to look at what is proven: the October low stands three weeks later, though not quite three full weeks yet. It stands as a higher low in every currency except USD. The rally looks weaker on hourly over the past couple of days, but it is still ok in daily.

Technically: it is taking on some characteristics of a rising pennant, that is to say an interim pause in a downswing which is not completed.

My take is that about now a bearish continuation pattern will fail, and recent purchases were made on the scenario that the October low, which I expected from a ways back, is a prime time for that to happen. But if I'm wrong, I'm ready to do this again in December and end of January to mid-February. But I prefer to think the Jan-Feb event could be a higher low or a breakout to the upside time.

But it is too early to describe that as anything other than supposition of mine. What we have is a two week rally going into it's third week. We can compare sharpness and duration and resistance to drawdowns in this embryonic rally against the rallies which formed (and were taken out) earlier during the bear.

Basically I bought two weeks ago as a knifecatch trade basis long term holdings, but I always trade before trend change becomes visible. It's a dangerous tactic that I am good at. I assess and buy futures trade entry points for long term with wide stops which would inevitably kill a futures trader. If you want conventional long term buy points, what might be called fund management entry points, wait for the 200 day moving average to turn and then hope for a drawdown to buy into. But that would be 150 - 300 dollars higher when it's visible.

Meanwhile all I see among the PM blogosphere is mistrust of the upmove so far. That's good. So maybe it has further to go!

On that, 26-27 Nov, 2 Dec and 8 Dec are likely swing pivots for this rally. The G-V pivots in particular are times when attempts by bears to make gold and silver go down are seriously curtailed in their effect.

Now I know that people are trading leverage, stocks and options but I just don't believe the claims of success that I see made about trading this way by the majority of personal traders. Those claims should come alongside a hard-bitten gritty realism in the same comments which is absent. So sorry if this offends anybody but I expect only one in ten/twenty of self described successful ultra small short term traders to be sustainable over longer haul track record testing of eg well over a hundred trades.

What I do is work in a timeframe and stop parameter which places well equipped hedge fund traders between me and my account and the capacity of the flash crash take your money and run bandits.

My analysis at the moment says if the low is located it does not matter whether PMs are still in a bear or a new bull - a rally is due either way. Only the termination price and date of that rally should vary, which is another analysis problem, one for figuring out later.

On Bo Polny, I don't comment. He is trying to make a living which I won't intrude on. Let some bee-in-bonnet crusading non trader take that up. I have no trouble at all replicating the work of these people and know their advantages and disadvantages as well as I know my own. All I say to you is that plenty of recorded track record is verifiable and don't take assurances made after the fact as truth on any past trading advice. GO BACK AND CHECK FOR YOURSELF! Stated views pre-event versus charts after the period has passed. In the Kitco interview start at 4:30 for testing, Danijela's choice of words all throughout the interview and especially her last question are well chosen.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 4:13pm Solsson
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ChartFreak

Solsson, I wonder what CF would have to say about this idea?

Iv'e seen some internet discussions; along with chart examples of GDX and GDXJ showing the massive trading volume that took place when gold broke the 1185 support. According to Wyckoff theory, whenever this occurs, there is usually a secondary test of those lows and on reduced volume.

Would love to see volume information during the 1999 lows? Also, the lows around 2001. As an example, in 2001 we had roughly an 8% rise from the lows from 254 - 274. Prices subsequently came back down to test those lows before moving impulsively higher in the new bull market.

Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 4:25pm eclectic
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Technically gold and silver

Technically gold and silver broke old lows and pulled back to the breakline, Gold has intruded above the breakline, silver has not. Under TA that's about as clear a sell as you can get.

Now the fact we have already declined so much and for so long should also be taken into account since no trend goes in the same direction indefinitely. Extended trends often make a final false break before reversing. This is an extremely cautionary sign for bears, but technical bulls have very little to work with so far. Technically, the longs are out on a limb and sawing noises can be heard in the background.

No fear no gain.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets

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