The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Aug 29, 2014 - 12:25pm
Cottonbelt21
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'Coppock'

Article below of interest another piece of the PM puzzle … the ‘Coppock Breadth Indicator’ has been on my radar screen since late last year (initially flagged by J Stack).

The ‘Coppock’ signal is uncommon on Wall Street because it is a relatively long-term momentum oscillator which takes forever to generate a buy or sell signal. Since 1983, the XAU index basket has given off ten ‘Coppock’ buy signals where 7 were valid / 3 were false – an XAU ‘Coppock’ buy signal was triggered back in May/June …

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2014/08/coppock-indicator-intermediate-term.html

Sat, Aug 30, 2014 - 10:20am
Solsson
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Symmetrical triangles

From Cottonbelt21's link:

"Guessing isn’t very useful when it comes to investing, but if I had to make a guess I would say that both metals sell off one final time into a lower low by early 2015. Based on historical analogues alone, Gold seems to be following the 1996-99 bear market quite well and could bottom around March 2015. At the same time if Silver falls to a lower low around March 2015, that would be one of the longest and most oversold downtrends (not including the 1980-82 bubble crash)."

Ouch, no please, I do not have the inner strength to wait another 6-7months for a breakout :-P

I fully support Bo Polny's view here:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bywe0LES4bGidnkxSUZaamk0Zmc0c0NKVUpHTjBX...

I started to giggle like a teenager when reading it, that is exactly what I am hoping for getting ready to place my last bet in ...

Sat, Aug 30, 2014 - 7:19pm Solsson
fslade
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"I started to giggle like a

"I started to giggle like a teenager when reading it"

Personally, I don't think this is a common precursor to successful investments (it is probably a pretty accurate contrary indicator though).

Sat, Aug 30, 2014 - 9:25pm Nemraci
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...

....

Sun, Aug 31, 2014 - 12:14am
Safety Dan
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@ eclectic

I've been pondering your question:

"How can we get rid of dishonest money? For example; although Ted Cruz is a so called tea party favorite, his wife works for Goldman; an obvious conflict of interest towards that goal. Can you see him taking the lead towards demanding that we reinstate Glass-Stegall?"

First sir we didn't get into this problem of 'dishonest money' over night, we are not going to get out it over night.

Nor are we the first country to face the challenge of 'dishonest money'. Your example of Ted Cruz & his wife suggests dishonest money is created by dishonest men, or as a result of some of our leaders in office and in power, past and present. Those in office, they were elected into office, they can be removed. However, it seems both parties have many corrupted men & women. Why do the politicians end up corrupted?

The core of the problem is the banks as many have previously identified. This is not an easy problem to fix.

Instead we seem bound to an easier softer way, one that wouldn't disrupt the established system. Should we continue on the same course, it appears we have these options;

  1. Austerity - tightening of budgets and reduced spending
  2. Default - masked or outright non payment of owed debt
  3. Some combination of the both;

It would seem that we are already taking steps in austerity by reducing government jobs, and budgets. We are experiencing non/little GDP growth despite the published numbers. The results are shown in massaged numbers for inflation and unemployment, while government debt increases, though more slowly. We will likely continue down this path until another shock to the economy changes the direction.

Change of direction is the one, or many black swans economists have well elaborated upon. The coming event could cause default and/or civil unrest. We see our government well prepared for the potential unrest with Military equipment and armament.

We have a choice.

Forgive me AM for stepping all over your thread & high jacking it with TJ quotes.

- edit did I mention how much I enjoy Thomas Jefferson's quotes?

Sun, Aug 31, 2014 - 1:43am fslade
Solsson
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fslade wrote: "I started to

fslade wrote:

"I started to giggle like a teenager when reading it" Personally, I don't think this is a common precursor to successful investments (it is probably a pretty accurate contrary indicator though).

Yes you are probably right. If you read the article he is backing down from two important statements.

1.He failed to call the summer low, he missed it by several weeks. Now he says it doesn't matter.

2. The $2000 moon shot is still valid but he suspects it will also fail.

Not a good sign, the reason for my childish enthusiastic writing is that the miners is looking really strong. Whén I log in to my two capital insurance account. They are looking much much healthier than they did one year ago. But that could change of course.

Sun, Aug 31, 2014 - 4:14am
Silver_Surfer
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Bitcoin and gold charts compared

Bitcoin and gold. Funny how their chart shapes become similar from Q3 2013

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Sun, Aug 31, 2014 - 10:59am Safety Dan
eclectic
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SD

You make the point I raise about Ted Cruz; and you are correct. (I may have used him as a poor example; because the system corrupts all of us to some degree or another. Example: the police chief who didn't like the idea of smaller government and placed a tea party leaders' name on a gay dating site.) Perhaps a better example might be of two men racing to a local grocery; with wheelbarrows full of paper money money to purchase food for their families. If they get in a fight and one kills the other who is really to blame? There is an expression in the navy that "***t flows down hill". More precisely, when there is a dishonest money system at the top, the parasitic cancer eventually flows down to kills the host.

For further insights; I would defer to Ivars; who seems to have a good understanding on the subject of the 'Rocks vs the Roths'. While we can theoritically vote out bad/corrupt politicians from office, others are standing in line to take their place; and the system doesn't change. Our government has become a political version of professional wrestling. Reduce spending? With the EPA, DOA, etc. funding swat teams? Has anyone seen an end to the fraud of base line budgeting? Oh, don't let me forget about the IRS: people 'working' against our interests who couldn't get a decent job in the real world. And that's assuming that people work for the government are good, decent productive citizens; like VA workers? Does anyone recall this dog and pony show; circa 1982?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Grace_Commission

As Ivars I think correctly points out; we have outlived our usefulness to the bankers. The rubble of our fiat experience along with the transfer of wealth and military might will now move from West to East. I put into evidence your TJ 'red' poster #4. An economic tsunami is coming and a change in leadership won't make much difference. We will have to remove the garbage left by their greed and folly.

Sun, Aug 31, 2014 - 11:14am
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Blog essay is uploaded at the

Blog essay is uploaded at the AM Blog.

Link to the Main Street blog:

The Critical Mind, Inner Scripting, & The "Game" of Trading

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Aug 31, 2014 - 12:15pm eclectic
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N.B.

Should have also added the phrase; "crimes against humanity" in my last sentence.

Sun, Aug 31, 2014 - 5:21pm
Oboma
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Planetary Alerts! The

Planetary Alerts!

The CARDINAL SQUARE between PLUTO in CAPRICORN and URANUS in ARIES is with us until 2016. The aspect causes some to act out in a bizarre or unruly fashion, perhaps out of control or insane as we continue to read in the headlines of wars and terrorist acts. The world is a scary place with all the disease and discontent in the Middle East, including Ebola and the horrors of Islamic militants in Nigeria and other African nations, besides in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. This pattern creates accidents, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, as well as volatility in the stock markets. Please pay attention to your intuition and instincts to stay sane and safe during these difficult planetary times!

Sun, Aug 31, 2014 - 7:10pm
Green Lantern
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New Gold Chart

I drew up my own little gold chart for your amusement (if you have any left in you) for this rather uneventful Sunday evening. I know for most of you the amusement guage is on near empty.

The entire schematic belwo represents all the moving parts of the gold market. Each gear, and tumbler represents an indicator. There is an indicator gear for gold backwardation ie GOFO rates, I've set the gear for the Coppock Breadth Indicator at the exact point where it will be the moment in time the bear market becomes a raging bull. Some of you might be more interested in the USD/Euro cross rates, gold/silver ratio gear.

On the right you will find, many of the gears representing the geopolitical realities. Ukraine situation is the gold one with the red screw set perfectly to the moment when gold blasts off. The gear for Israel/Palestine reflects what the situation will be at the moment gold becomes a bull market. There is a gear indicator for just about everything even jazztalkers celestial alignments. Heck, even a Kim Kardashian indicator, CNBC etc...

I am 100% certain that I've set each gear to the perfect position to represent the state of affairs of that indicator at the moment in time, where the bear market ceases to exist. Obviously each indicator is cyclical. They are all wheels.

All you have to do is flip the picture over to the otherside to view the face of the clock. That will show the day, time, down to the second, for the moment you've all been waiting for. It won't happen a moment sooner.

I hope you take this in the spirit in which it was meant. I've been searching for the greatest common denominator which will tell us, the time has arrived. But every gear has to be in it's right place. No matter how good an indicator, if all the cosmic tumblers aren't aligned. We haven't arrived. I've even been asking the shoeshine boy what he thinks of the gold market? I think that will be the ultimate sign.

Mon, Sep 1, 2014 - 7:55am
Oboma
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How things have changed

Went to check my email and couldn't get on it. Assume we have shut down all emails. Any reason for this? And are all the email content gone or is someone able to go through them?

Mon, Sep 1, 2014 - 8:40am
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Jazz

PM system was being abused in various ways (threats, insults, disparaging, inappropriate content), so TF made it part of the membership privileges. Turd announced it and examined it in a podcast some Time ago, gave people four or five days to get what they wanted. For vault members, nothings changed but it is now disabled for the general public. I doubt old PM'ds were archived, but you could ask tech support.

Mon, Sep 1, 2014 - 10:25am
redwood
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I'll ask tech support right

I'll ask tech support right here so everyone will be informed. Turd, what has happened to all emails that now belong/belonged to non members? Thanks in advance.

Mon, Sep 1, 2014 - 5:46pm
Green Lantern
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A very interesting article

A very interesting article once again by Joseph Farrell…. The timing of the article on Zero Hedge about a possible Helicopter drop and the formal charging of IMF director is indeed interesting. But I do detect some conflicting messages.

The article is interesting for several reasons. One that several items which have showed up here in the set up, show up again

  1. The formal charging of IMF Director
  2. Grand Cross
  3. Her infamous speech of 7’s. (The allegations that it was a coded message for a currency reset obviously have not panned out) Only thing we can say is it showed up again.

I had already commented on the Grand Cross back in March. Here is what what is relevant to me.

Every US Depression, without exception has coincided with a Grand Cross. One writer Robert Grover “Time and Money” The Economy and the Planets writes “ No Grand Cross, No Great Depression” Such an observation really reduces the need to look at a whole bunch of macroeconomic indicators. It’s important to note the opposite is not true. All Grand Crosses do not indicate Depressions.

He discusses this phenomenon as it relates to the Great Depression of 1780, 1870, 1929 all had Grand Crosses. Again, not the 50 day average crossing the 200 day average type of cross.

It is interesting to note the comment by the individual who posted this video Notes " that the back in the 1940s and 50s, John H. Nelson, a radio engineer for RCA worked on examining changes in short wave signal propagation. What he found was simply stunning.

Nelson’s work has never been refutedHis 1950s work:

https://www.enterprisemission.com/jnel...

"John H. Nelson's theory of propagation:

Is there anything to it?"

https://www.eham.net/articles/8828

Did John Nelson prove astrological aspects to have an effect?


So we have two desparate paradigms converging into a basic conclusion, that a grand cross has a real world effect.

Back in March I posted this in relationship to the upcoming Grand Cross. Basically it represented a time when fake money flooded the market back in 1344.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4460/setup-big-trade?page=260#comments

A writer named Susan Miller made this observation back in January.

After looking at the history, the theme seems to be one of powerful dynasties taking power, starvation, fear of the end of the world and currency loosing value. I think the Cardinal T Square of 1344 is particularly significant since it shows the beginning of the fake money ruling the world and the elites holding power over the masses by creating debt. The cross also fell around 13º of the Cardinal signs as it does this year.

You’ll also note that this was around the time of the great Black Death Plaque.

Then Farrells comment on the Zero Hedge article acknowledging the coincidence of the Grand Cross. Here is the direct link to the article

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-26/it-begins-council-foreign-relations-proposes-central-banks-should-hand-consumers-cas

A lot of correlations, synchronicities but what does it all mean? Are Central Banks really ready to give you free money? And who would love that? Gold bugs of course. The problem I have with the article is that the publisher is owned and operated by the Council on Foreign Relations which was started by the BulldibUrghs. Reverse engineering? As below so above?

Mon, Sep 1, 2014 - 6:14pm
eclectic
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HISTORICAL NOTES ON THE FED

Tue, Sep 2, 2014 - 8:50am
ivars
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Seems this is working

Seems this is working roughly, of course, the lows in my picture from August 12th were too low ( ? there is still time):


https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/621762#comment-621762

Quote:

There is interesting exactly FIBO (ratios between periods are 1,618..) time line development in gold since August 2012:

The sequence is downtrending from top to next top; as can be seen from drawing, this FIBO sequence converges ( period =0 ) somewhere in January 2015 .

There is some mistake in Netdania time line ( shift by 1 month to the left) so correcting it, next minimum in gold could be around Sept 1st, maximum- About Sept 24, etc, getting more and more crowded if not some resolution earlier.

in any case this sequence is pretty long term and accurate and it has to resolve somehow prior to or in January 2015.

On other hand, we have learned that sharp drops in gold means there will be geopolitical tension escalation soon. People in the know drop the price prior to that.

NATO has summit on Sept 4-5th with plans to ramp up anti Russian force concentration speedily, Obama is in Estonia (Baltics) on Sept 3rd. Excellent timing for Russians to do something extra.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Sep 2, 2014 - 12:26pm
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This drop in gold was no

This drop in gold was no surprise here, we had lots of notice in Setup that the upside had come to a stop and even counted the upside retests and failures as they occurred.

But if gold is in a bull swing, as some big name commentators like to say, it has now completed a 60% pullback of the Q1 2014 upswing, and it should get moving to the upside promptly and never look back. I'm not counting on that and would consider it a nice surprise if it happened.

Alternatively, if gold is still in a broadly sideways range as I think it is, the bounce will be short term and peter out after a short while. The downswing could then reassert itself again as gold, after bouncing at the lower daily trading bottom upwards to make an interim high, then expands it's downside swing for testing and updating the lower limits of the larger monthly trading range it has been in for over a year.

The gold/euro is beginning to look positive, as is the gold/silver ratio looking as if a tentative top could be in.

So I'm starting to look at silver again for the first time in months. Nibbles rather than big bites.

Geopolitical-violence cycle peak centered on tomorrow so we're already inside the 48 hour window.

I'll do some charts tomorrow.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Sep 2, 2014 - 9:31pm
redwood
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Miners are holding up well to

Miners are holding up well to this downturn in metals. As already mentioned I think the metals will continue their decline till at least early Q4. So are miners preferentially in synch with the S&P? Or does this suggest considerable buying in anticipation of soon to be higher prices? I think I favor the latter. JMHO

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