The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Aug 7, 2014 - 2:45pm
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Schiffradio.com

Peter Schiff Show to be terminated and replaced with podcasts.

The Future of The Peter Schiff Show

Peter says it will end end of this month, and also provides the date the daily show began: 18 October 2010 - end August 2014

Here is a chart of silver with the dates and price (of silver at the launch of his show) marked:

I added the blue support & resistance levels because of their ( in my view) relevance to the venture. What's clear is that silver has now spent 16 months trading below the prices which obtained when SchiffRadio was launched.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Aug 7, 2014 - 4:17pm (Reply to #5927)
Solsson
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argentus maximus

argentus maximus wrote:
XAU/EUR has a significant timeline the second week of August. Basically I'm just waiting, looking at this chart with curiosity and hoping it will be at the range high ready to breakout or fail at that time. There is a geopolitical violence peak proximate to it, and a serious inflection a few days afterwards which could initiate a decent swing.

11th August? It's a Monday and maybe it is the end of an important cycle, the yearly vacation cycle :-) people with skills in markets and pushing buttons is back at work.

Yes why not:

argentus maximus wrote:

Meanwhile, it's still holiday season. Range trading indecision is adequate for just a little while longer I expect. Then the fun returns. :-)

And by "fun" I hope for an upward movement ...

Redwood, I hope your family member is recovering Ok!

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 3:07am
Silver_Surfer
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12 August reporting collateral

11 August and the Euro specifically: It seems that banks in Europe have to report collateral with regards to derivatives on 12 August.

As I'm a student of the game that's just getting started I wouldn't know how significant this is. What do you guys think?

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Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 3:24am (Reply to #5992)
ivars
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argentus maximus wrote:Peter

argentus maximus wrote:

Peter Schiff Show to be terminated and replaced with podcasts.

The Future of The Peter Schiff Show

Peter says it will end end of this month, and also provides the date the daily show began: 18 October 2010 - end August 2014

Here is a chart of silver with the dates and price (of silver at the launch of his show) marked:

I added the blue support & resistance levels because of their ( in my view) relevance to the venture. What's clear is that silver has now spent 16 months trading below the prices which obtained when SchiffRadio was launched.

You can be wrong only for so long to have commercial success. Its over for Shiff mantra. And many others I am afraid who are too bullish too long. Correct repositioning would be to focus more on shorter term trends without making grand announcements about gold/silver price future, and then being proven wrong.

After all gold and silver was in a classic bubble shape and it usually takes years for such bubble ( based on its formation stage length ) to unwind and may be restart move up. See Nikkei as an example with very long tail. It had about 20 year bull run or more, and now is in 24 year bear. it could be starting some signs of recovery now.


There was a 8 year silver bull market (12 year gold i guess) from may 2003- May 2011, and it may easily take 5- 8 years from 2011 for it to settle on solid basis ready to move up again. So best case, 2016-2017, worst- 2019-2020.


Gold bull ran about 10-12 years to the peak, from 1999( 2001) - 2011, so 10-12 years. So there can be upswing e.g 12 years from 2011, or 2021-2023.

When looking at previous gold bubble into 1981, it was running up since approx 1958 when USA started to lose gold ( due to fixed price, which meant price was too low compared to market demand) · So it was about 23 year run up to 1981 peak, and after that about 18-20-22 year bear market. They tend to be symmetric. Well its not long to wait as 3 years have passed already, only 7 left in bear for gold, ONLY 5 for silver.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 5:10am
TREACHEROUS CRETINS
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Here's another cycle !

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 6:33am
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"Well its not long to wait as

"Well its not long to wait as 3 years have passed already, only 7 left in bear for gold, ONLY 5 for silver."

So Ivars, are you trolling now? If so, I commend your subtle transformation to it, excellent work.

However, no matter which way you look at it, the simple fact is that you were super-bullish on the way up, proclaiming to all that would listen of $10K gold by 2015 or whatever, and are now super bearish on the way down, proclaiming to all that will listen of $800 and a new high at least 7 years away.

You could be wrong last time but right this time (seriously, you could). However, as you're just doing exactly what the charts make amateurs do ie. enter long too late on the way up and then enter short too late on the way down and finding arguments to make sense of your emotions, then if you are right, it will be an accident.

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 6:37am (Reply to #5996)
Green Lantern
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Re: Here's another cycle!

Now introduce the inflation cycle and check real gains in the stock market for those same periods (maybe not all 4 years perfectly) and see how good the math comes out. Any negative real gains in that third year of the cycle? And then look at 4 year cycles in gold. Should we be ready to put cash into stocks or metals in Fall 2014?

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 6:43am
Green Lantern
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You can be wrong only for so

You can be wrong only for so long to have commercial success. Its over for Shiff mantra.

Probably true but I wonder what takes more victims: being wrong, or just bear markets in general? The metals conference once a thriving symposium for investors rich and not so rich, presented both bullish and bearish point of views.

Just a guess, but if Schiff had been bearish from the very start, he might have lost alot more viewers much quicker. Why follow a bear market especially if you want to hear somebody who is bullish? The continued prospect of an imminent bull market might have kept him in business for the full cycle.

Or simply, the cycle ruled- bull or bear.

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 7:07am (Reply to #5997)
ivars
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fslade wrote: However, no

fslade wrote:

However, no matter which way you look at it, the simple fact is that you were super-bullish on the way up, proclaiming to all that would listen of $10K gold by 2015 or whatever, and are now super bearish on the way down, proclaiming to all that will listen of $800 and a new high at least 7 years away.

You could be wrong last time but right this time (seriously, you could). However, as you're just doing exactly what the charts make amateurs do ie. enter long too late on the way up and then enter short too late on the way down and finding arguments to make sense of your emotions, then if you are right, it will be an accident.

You may be quite right in this. I am no pro, and have always invested at wrong time in wrong things. I am turning away from this (investing and trading) completely until I am debt free. What strikes me is though how many people catch the mood of people- people like me- and make business on it without ever believing in what they say, just saying what people want to hear.

Last time I was clearly wrong long term after predicting correctly short term ( few months i guess) outcomes both in silver and gold. And this time will be as well. All i try to do is learn about things I do not know- how does the monetary world functions as it drives and controls everything else- and that takes awful lot of time, and is very very complicated. I guess i will never understand it..may be a posteriori , but even that is unlikely given the shadowy nature of happenings in money supply sphere.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 7:21am
GoldMania3000
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what will happen to BO

https://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-on-2015-the-coming-inflationary-s...

What will happen to Bo if this turns out to be totally wrong? What excuse will Bo provide? Is there a possbility?

There does seem to be a lot of dispear in the markets? How much longer before we turn?

Anyone notice that the miners seem to have a floor. Interesting perspectives welcomed

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 7:45am
ivars
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Amateur chartist trendline

Amateur chartist trendline observation for gold :


Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 9:39am
Green Lantern
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Calculating Inflection Points

Gann square of 9?

What happens when inflection points intersect the 13.9443 synodic month lunar cycle (14) such as the eve of Aug 11th? A perigee-szygy aka Supermoon. History says, not good things.

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 10:06am (Reply to #6002)
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@Ivars: That is indeed a

@Ivars: That is indeed a vital chart with all the important stuff on it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 10:55am
fslade
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It's not really important

It's not really important exactly WHAT you are saying Ivars - crash, moonshoot, whatever. What's important is that you are saying it stridently like it's obvious, like anyone else who doesn't see what you see is a moron. People love to read this, it's comforting - it reminds me of when I went to the races when I was about 18 and stood in a queue to place a bet on Horse A, but the guy in front of my placed a massive wad on Horse B. I thought, "no'one would do that without some inside knowledge" and followed him. I lost my money.

It is hard to have an open mind and accept you don't know what will happen unless you are an insider and do know what will happen. Are you an insider?

Because if not, you can try work out what the "Roths" and "Rocks" are doing as much as you like, far smarter and more informed traders than you have already done it and it's in the price. Draw as many trendlines or channels as you like - far smarter and more informed traders than you have already done it and it's in the price. The idea of being able to predict a single move with 100% accuracy is AMATEUR – you cannot, ever. All you can do is have a decision process that looks for small edges and hope your calls over time make more money than they lose – that is the best you can hope for if you are actually trading.

Anyone – like Bo Polny, Jim Sinclair or whoever – announcing that something will happen with certainty is either privy to crucial market-moving information not “in the price” (a remarkably rare event I would say) or genius with some infallible system that he's giving away for free (let's charitably say that this is unlikely also) or a bullshitter looking to make himself look smart, essentially going to the casino and putting all his money on Red or Black. Sinclair got it no lube after his ridiculous guarantee that gold would not break $1525 and no'one should take anything he says seriously again.

Ilya Repin was the same – always strident calls, which is why people liked his posts, it's comforting to see the guy next to you place a big wad on a horse, you can easily convince that, finally, you've met someone who knows what's going on and need not wander around in ignorance any more. Sadly, ALL his big calls were total bollocks.

Anyone ever seen AM make a strident call? No, me neither.

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 11:59am (Reply to #6005)
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fslade..

A lot of sage advice there in your excellent commentary. Ivars, a great admission on your part about being wrong; and haven;t we all? GL: I think those so called supermoons have more to do with natural disasters than they do with any correlations to the markets. But then again, that's just my 2-cents.

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 1:10pm
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Chart update post

Here you go !

Weekly silver projection updated and the last couple of price bars correlate quite well. Assuming continuance of good performance the most interesting swings are marked, a forecasted tendency to double top and double bottom results in dual dates.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

XAU The robust project has a good performance recently. Interesting periods are dated.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

And a little stranger to our thread has a prominent timeline ....

I think the price level at 140, also the downtrend from overhead highs could be tested and decided here. There is another trendline off the rising lows which would be arriving above 145 by then. What a possible pivot! TBT anyone?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 1:28pm
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so Argentus

Correct me if I am wrong. If that is the silver future chart you project than basically silver isnt doing a fucking thing for a looooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnngg time. Please God I hope the shit you are wrong.

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 1:36pm
brokerk22
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Argentus

Those charts look close to Martin Armstrong's predictions.

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 2:03pm
brokerk22
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AM

What exactly is your prediction for silver for the end of this year. Is it 20-$22? I hope I am not intruding but I am curious.

Fri, Aug 8, 2014 - 2:44pm
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@Eclectic, you are definitely

@Eclectic, you are definitely right about the geological aspect-Hurricane Katrina and tons of earthquakes and I believe also geopolitical unrest has been charted, coups and revolutions. I have some reading to do on Gann and the lunar 28 day calendar because I'm pretty sure I heard AM briefly mention lunar cycles somewhere in the past and inflection points don't just indicate a change in the market as he indicated last time he disucssed. Gann was using all these universal archetypes and applying them to the markets. Smart dude. Thought there were some other Gann type folks around here. You need a supercomputer to do this kind of work to compare market cycles, geopolitical and all the other shit going on.

broker22, Like your bluntness. I'm sure 100 others asking the same question.

randomness