The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Jul 30, 2014 - 11:31pm Nemraci
ivars
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2 predictions I made last

2 predictions I made last year based on S&P in gold and Bubble nature of current S&P peak that are waiting for stock top any moment:


https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/610259#comment-610259

I was to fast with this which I did on October 29 , 2013, missed one more shortening time period in the bubble (one more blue arrow down around May-June 2014) , but the top value is close enough:


If there is one more period in blue till May-June 2014, top (red arrow) is around July/August 2014, based on same time period ratios.

Of course I did not trade on this prediction:)


https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/608699#comment-608699

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 10:12am
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Capitulation

From Hugo Salinas Price 28 July:

Welcome to the New Dark Age

The Powers That Be in the US and its allies seem to be committed to keeping the price of gold below $1320US/oz. ......

.... I bid you welcome to The New Dark Age.

A big supporter of precious metals becoming despondent. This is a building block for a low. More blocks like this will be required for creation of the sentiment to create the next PM low. I wonder what creative news will we receive as the movers and shakers transfer from cash to PM?

And I still await IMF and BIS to do their best. There is an IMF 5 year decision to sell PM, for which only some was sold already, and implementation of another agreement which take place towards end of Q3 2014.

Meanwhile, it's still holiday season. Range trading indecision is adequate for just a little while longer I expect. Then the fun returns. :-)

I'll post charts later.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 3:04pm
Silverman
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Happy

Why I'm happy? Cause I don't trading. Trading is stressful job. Two good trades per month is perfect for me. Over trading will kill your balance quickly and you'll get nervous when you see the market too closely.

Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 4:51pm
Byzantium
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IMF gold musings

"And I still await IMF and BIS to do their best. There is an IMF 5 year decision to sell PM, for which only some was sold already, and implementation of another agreement which take place towards end of Q3 2014."

Do they even have any gold, or is it just the same paper claim that sovereigns have?

Sure, they can sell their paper claims in turn, which is just an aggregation of 'donations' from countries like Germany making their gold available, their gold being a paper promise by the Fed (wink wink). Then a sucker like the Indian central bank comes along, and buys title to that unicorn gold.

No physical is changing hands here, in my humble opinion, but I don't doubt the absurdity that it can still be the alibi for price smack-downs... which of course is the point.

:-)

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 2:14am
Silverman
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Prediction

I might be wrong but my prediction is here. Too bad I can't enter buy position. I will be out of city without internet. It seems 1240 is another great support zone.


Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 4:54am
ivars
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I think a good medium term

I think a good medium term ( few years) buy point is between 800-1000 USD for gold. Roughly at the level of the top/bottom of 2008 price swing.

Based roughly on this- this overlay with bitcoin was made in May 13, 2014, but the scale of chart is such that IF , then gold prices have moved 1 millimeter to the right, so possible bottom is still ahead. On the left scale, those are bitcoin prices.


Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 7:34am
redwood
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fwiw still think we'ere

fwiw still think we'ere heading for 1240 and possibly 1200, but perhaps not today. Still in a trading range, and today is Friday. WS.

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 10:22am
Silverman
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Buy

Entered buy at 1292. Couldn't hold my fingers. It's called losing patience.

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 2:56pm
fatjohn
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Did a leveraged paper trade

Did a leveraged paper trade of 665 silver ounces to 35 gold ounces today (gold at a higher leverage than my silver position was) when the ratio was below 63. Just wanted to increase my exposure, had no idea this divergence was coming, sure am happy with the trade though.

Gold up 13.2, silver down 0.11

Very unusual, anyone take a guess why. I wont settle for "your trade influenced the markets" as an explanation ;)

Sat, Aug 2, 2014 - 10:43am
ivars
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Interesting predictions

Interesting predictions midterm incl. gold. Short, easy reading, recommend.

https://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sat, Aug 2, 2014 - 6:59pm ivars
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ivars wrote: Interesting

ivars wrote:

Interesting predictions midterm incl. gold. Short, easy reading, recommend.

https://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/

He's still calling for gold in the 900s. I don't know about that.
Sat, Aug 2, 2014 - 7:50pm
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Sounds like Martin has all

Sounds like Martin has all the bases covered. The low will be in 2013/2014, or maybe it's early 2015?

https://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/16/metal-report-2013/

Sat, Aug 2, 2014 - 8:35pm
rambo
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I love to read Martin

I love to read Martin Armstrong's blogs. They are some of the most informative I've ever read regarding the economy and how the world really works. I believe he is one of the smartest out there, but predicting gold has to be the hardest thing to do in the world. I will say he seems to be right more often than anyone else when it comes to short term movements in gold, while he stands nothing to gain like so many perma bulls out there who are selling gold related products. So he is clearly objective and unbiased in his analysis, therefore people should definitely pay attention to what he has to say.

Sun, Aug 3, 2014 - 2:35am
ivars
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If it will be necessary for

If it will be necessary for pushing Russia into China(Roths) monetary sphere, second reserve currency sphere, take loans there, use that currency, etc. Rotschilds will see by attacking USD that USA (Rocks) delivers. And that could raise spectrum of USA actions against Russia which are unthinkable/unnecessary at the moment; it all depends how fast The market for China money supply is created by the USA, particularly given the potential time limit of 2 more Obama(Roths) time at helm. If Repubs take senate in 2014, things will slow down and Obama will have to apply more extreme executive action; if someone unacceptable wins 2016 presidential, everything may come to certain halt and deal reached so far renegotiated/dismissed by Rocks...so he will be killed , most likely, with a Roth plant VP ( as Theodor Roosevelt who broke up Sandard Oil, remember) ready to take over.

To summarize: Roths have 2 years for Obama to deliver markets ( debtors) from USD and Rocks to new coming Chinese monetary empire.That requires from Obama aggressive USA policies to turn away as many countries as possible, turn them Chinas (Roth) way.

The measure of his success or failure is very simple - the price of gold in USD; if Roths are happy with the way things develop for second monetary empire , price of gold will be stable/go down. If unhappy, price of gold will move up. This signaling is almost instant, no need for communications. Since tensions involving USA Israel move situation towards its aim, there is no wonder gold price does not react to wars, genocide, sovereign defaults (Argentina) . Because Roths are happy-market for second reserve currency is being created with every day of these events happening. China in turn has to come as strong but benign, opening its claws to all future monetary empire vassals.

So far since 2011 September they seem to be relatively satisfied. but there can be setbacks so Obama has to act faster; there can be acceleration in eruptions;

In Ukraine case, after rebels are pacified, Ukraine probably will try to get Crimea back ..perhaps by force. And of course it will get plenty of NATO and USA military support to alienate Russia further, push it eastwards.

Putin BTW knows this so he is playing along while standoff with the USA helps him maintain domestic popularity . Putin will deliver Russia into China monetary supply Empire. He is also Roths guy. Remember how he came to power in 1999..Yeltsin abdicated.

Quote:

Putin moved to Moscow in 1996 and joined President Boris Yeltsin's administration where he rose quickly, becoming Acting President on 31 December 1999 when Yeltsin resigned unexpectedly.

Whenever You see these "unexpected", "surprise" , usually there are background guys at work, telling politicians what to do. Putin was groomed, was ready and for him to win 2000 elections he needed to get known and control administrative resource. Which he got with Yeltsin abdication. For abdication Yeltsin and his family was granted immunity against law.

Quote:

The first Presidential Decree that Putin signed, on 31 December 1999, was titled "On guarantees for former president of the Russian Federation and members of his family".[55][56] This ensured that "corruption charges against the outgoing President and his relatives" would not be pursued.[57] Later, on 12 February 2001, Putin signed a similar federal law which replaced the decree of 1999.

Deal done.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Aug 3, 2014 - 2:44am ivars
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Like the Roths buying

Like the Roths buying vineyards through chinese fiat in America. How does an old school family stay drunk?

Sun, Aug 3, 2014 - 2:46am ivars
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The vice is the price.

The vice is the price.

Sun, Aug 3, 2014 - 5:20am
ivars
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I suggest reading this page

I suggest reading this page of 1899 book "The Coming Battle" by M.W.Walbert; Brilliant book by the way:

https://archive.org/stream/TheComingBattle#page/n39/mode/2up

Who has that power controls RATIONALLY what happens in all other spheres. That is what we have been seeing and are seeing today. What is going on today INCLUDING gold price behavior is all RATIONAL, just need to identify find the real holders of power for whom it is rational.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Aug 3, 2014 - 8:42am ivars
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Ivars

There is nothing rational or cogent in your posts. Perhaps you'd feel more comfortable on a conspiracy board, because you are only detracting from the discussion here. Please stop posting in this thread.

Sun, Aug 3, 2014 - 8:04pm fahrenheit451
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fahrenheit451 wrote: There is

fahrenheit451 wrote:

There is nothing rational or cogent in your posts. Perhaps you'd feel more comfortable on a conspiracy board, because you are only detracting from the discussion here. Please stop posting in this thread.

I for one enjoy reading his posts...As I say,if you don't like it,skip over his posts,won't take you much time since the thread is VERY quiet anyway......just sayin :))

Sun, Aug 3, 2014 - 8:05pm
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$900.00 gold

After reviewing last couple month of posts in this forum, AM's main blog, R'n'P, I see no context within this frame work of a price of $900.00. None, somebody feel free to point out what I might be missing.

Based on the past Fibonacci charts (be interesting to see where price is at the next pont), all the charts showing how we have completely taken out past downward trend lines and having revisited bottoms quite sufficiently, the stage of evolution of this bear market and even AM's new main page R'n'P which I just viewed, I see no context for such calls other then by the perma bears that never quite get to posting a thorough analysis except to state it will because it will awaiting that day they can show up here and tell us all, they told us so. I certainly welcome it.

I didn't see much on Armstrong's page other than a linear prediction without providing any of the context that has been given above last three months, and an article on war cycles. His articles are interesting and thought provoking but I see no analysis or analogs between event cycles in the past vs market cycles. What can I tell ya, AM has spoiled me with the different ways he analyzes markets. Should I put equal weight into other predictions that provide less of a rationalization for their predictions (Listen to new video on quote on predictions)

Rambus, your link takes us to a sales page for a $300.00 analysis by Armstrong. Did you actually buy it and read it or were you just helping his sales along by bringing it to our attention?

randomness