Yeah it's just my forex account. My physical stack still untouched.
Spot silver weekly harmonics update
As points of recognition build for Q3, the weekly harmonic projection for silver appears to be working fine.
I added downtrend breaks to provide a forward view as to how silver has performed in regard to dismissing the bears to date. The next similar test is awaiting at the final downtrendline. Projection suggests a move up to meet it week of 12 Sept by the silver price when the current correction ends week of 8 Aug.
Were it last year, you could kiss these suckers good-bye after yesterday's raid especially in silver. Today they salvaged yesterday's loss and then some. Wow.
Old support now resistance
Important not to get swayed by Friday's frequent end of day/week blowout. Metals still trading in a range with slightly greater volatility. Lowers lows still in sight for now imho.
XAU/EUR has a significant timeline the second week of August.
Basically I'm just waiting, looking at this chart with curiosity and hoping it will be at the range high ready to breakout or fail at that time. There is a geopolitical violence peak proximate to it, and a serious inflection a few days afterwards which could initiate a decent swing.
AM trying to figure out if you think there is one more down? before we resume upward. I get that you are in the thought that we are getting close to the end of the bear. But what specfically low would come before we resume upward.
I tried to answer your question about when a final bout of price weakness would be most likely for silver, and how long it might last, in the weekend AM Blog piece.
It's here: An In-Depth look at a Major Cycle in Spot Silver
During the coming days I'll try to flesh it out with more details as they turn up. but basically, in the absence of something fresh, I hope to buy into the next price lows, provided I can identify them, provided I don't miss the bus, and provided I subsequently turn out to not be totally wrong about it all!
That's the question.
I am sick and tired of the heat, close to 100°F (34°C) in Sweden for two weeks now with 95% humidity hey I am a polar bear (the animal) *lol* so I am sitting in the basement with a fan working overtime.
Ok, more weakness in silver (yes it's silver, the author was tired):
I found this clever chartist (Alex) here:
Another clever dude out there, Jordan Roy-Byrne, also a bit bearish:
And the perma bulls at BMR:
If miners are leading metals we are in a pretty good shape I guess. I do not worry to much, I have placed my bet a long time ago. With 18years of experience in markets you do relax a bit during uncertain markets.
My guesstimate for what is worth is that 1180/18.5 will hold ... blah, I say 1250/20 will hold, but I expect a smackdown as usual at FOMC tomorrow, followed by a quick rebound. Do I trade it, no. I only have one rule, I sell half of my position if a stock runs more than 100% in 2 weeks time. Gladly, I need it, it has happen twice (ASM/GBB) since my last bet in Dec 2013.
And then of course I could be completely wrong and the market pull the pm-plug completely and we get a total capitulation phase that many internet pm expert gurus been asking for, to finally end the bear market.
Thank you for the update AM!
It's fairly consistent with this little beauty:
I just love that spikey end :-)
My only "fear" is that the bear is superstrong and we end up with a bear that is the longest and deepest in history:
That 1996-1999 bear looks nasty ... looking at the bright side, we are at least 4/5 into the bear already
Sorry double post.
Markets and geopolitical news flow are all analoges being played up an octave. I think it's Gann who talks alot about the octave. We are seeing a stretched octave or pseduo-octave. Newsflow is denser than anytime in my life. Can't keep up with newsflow. Israel, Hamas, Ukraine, Russia etc... and yet haven't seen the black cat pop into the matrix that indicates a turnaround. No news from BIS, IMF, FED that is any different than a month ago. So Solsson could be right, previous bear markets up an octave but you never know when all those resistance points on people's charts just go poof...disappear. Most people are moving them every week anyway.
Monthly, weekly, daily slow stochastics still down. 8 hours of slow stochastics overbought and ready point down. Maybe this time gold will fall below 1280.
Note that Silver led the way down in March and up in June.
The root note is still playing in my ear. Once an octave is played the root is cathedral.
You know that from your flute playing.
Look its so simple. Rothshilds via China and own private gold reserves potentially in Hong Kong under Chinese protection hold USD( Rocks ) in a thread. They showed it in 2011 by moving gold price up to 1900. That was enough for ROCKS to understand they can not really fight this game, they have to agree to share reserve currency as opposed to trying to suppress competition.
To launch Yuan as reserve currency and fasts, China needs markets within their monetary reserve curency printing which are relatively unburdened with loans, have good collateral ( resources/technology) and can not competitively opt for other (USD, EUR) finance. Which means Russia first hand, plus perhaps Central Asia and some Souht East Asia later.
The critical job- under the threat of USD value collapse vs. gold under the agreement ITS USA (ROCKS) job to provide these borrowers for Roth coming second monetary Empire ( China).
And that is EXACTLY what the USA is doing. Fighting and FINANCIAL sanctions send both capital ( Russians are moving it out of Europe USA) and debtors in need ( Russian enterprises) to into CHINAS CLAWS at rocket speed.
China does not have to do much at this stage. The work is on the USA to reduce its own sphere of influence. Europe can not object due to military weakness and USA control over it.
Gaza: Israeli (Roths) shelling leads to Anti- semitism in Europe. Jews as well will start to move assets out of Europe if things gets ( i think they will) dire. USG is not supporting ISRAEL fully. So assets may start leaving USA as well. Where to? Asia.
So these are coordinated moves to both move capital to Roth control in Asia and create debtors with good collateral for coming Eastern Money Supply Empire. Roths are back, USA delivers the influence spheres, USD stays in one piece. Obama at helm, 2 more years of time as no one knows after such performance what the next elections may bring, but for sure USG needs to prepare for mass protests. China waits to get the promised delivery of Russia and capital.
There is not much for gold IF USA plays as agreed and Roths does not have to pull the strings again. In principle, the price of gold shall by 60-70% represent Roth satisfaction with USA performance to develop second monetary Empire , reducing its own. COOL. If USA works as planned, I do not see gol,d above 1500-1600 in most critical moments of this story when USD may get weaker prior to stabilization at some parity with Yuan. Roths task is to see to that by selling gold USD does not collapse so that USA (Rocks) can control USA and Europe population.
Way back in November 2013 I made a post insinuating that the Dow may have topped when it hit this upper trend...
Nemraci wrote: Weekly
About a month later I was sent back to the drawing board when the Dow made a higher high which shattered my prediction. It was during this time of confusion that I began to look for something, anything, that would make sense of what was happening in the charts. This is when I plotted 6 ascending parallel lines, approximately 500 points apart, which seemed to bring order to the chaos. Typically I'll clear previous studies on my charts the next time I get bored and I want to screw around. This one was different though, I felt the need to see it through... and 2 weeks ago something miraculous happened.