The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 4:39am
Hammer
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If you want a real larf, The

If you want a real larf, The Knights Templar were rounded up and betrayed by The King of France on Friday, October 13th.............wait for it..................1307.......hehe. If my data is wrong - apologies. Just a quick scan on the net. https://www.unsolved-mystery.com/789

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 6:11am (Reply to #5790)
Green Lantern
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klempaton wrote: Hi GL. All

klempaton wrote:

Hi GL. All fair comments but i feel your angle of approach is incorrect.

Ilya may have just checked this thread himself, why would he need a spy to report for him, its and open thread!? .

Because the first line of his message says "i've been informed" And his IP Address was blocked from TFMR. Obviously he could have read it from another computer.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 7:26am
redwood
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Options expiry today,

Options expiry today, anything is possible.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 9:25am
foscotanner
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simplicity

I will keep my analysis very simple.

Look at silver on stockcharts. It just keeps on rising.

So we have a very simple scenario. If it does not go down today then it is very quickly. What a run of up days.....

Anyone remember a run like that before. I seem to remember the run from Jan 11 to Apr 11 started like that.

We had solid up days. Day after day. But nothing special. Then we had a consolidation. Then boom. Things just went crazy. Just a thought. I am trying to remember the last Aug rally. That didnt quite go boom though (or if it did just in the other direction)

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 9:41am
brokerk22
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Smell

This is has the distinct smell of hyperinflation.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 10:44am (Reply to #5796)
foscotanner
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AU 1HR MA

Gold 1 Hour moving averages are looking for a move.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 11:15am
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Friday Updates

The Gold Silver Ratio is going according to the chart I posted on 24th June. Now we reach the challenging period between the two inflections, but so far, it's working absolutely beautifully! Here it is updated:

Here is spot gold with everything required to plan trades for the coming month. Note the middle of the three rising amber trendlines which gold jumped down and back up through. That's where it is all happening. Gold has to find support there and stay above that. Also gold must challenge the stone grey descending trendline above, and the upper amber trendline where I marked with a little box. The selling and buying during resolving this could cause a trading range to form, even though that seems unlikely given wars etc going on.

If technical analysis above fails to offer enough clarity, even with significant timelines marked (watch where the trendlones and timelines cross each other!) below is the updated harmonic projection for gold. Gold is extremely chaotic at the moment but the algo has produced an output worth my and your attention:

Inverted robust projection working fine, which is the middle redline. Gold has shaken off the responsive harmonic (blue) and standard robust harmonic (lower redline)s. Next inflection of medium term is marked. It will likely be characterized by making the choice between a range breakout to the upside Vs a return to within the range with pullback to the range centre or lower area. This forecast seems noticeable simpler than the chart above it. It will be interesting to see how they reconcile their apparent differences.

Silver is approaching it's own major inflection. Inflection involves the events which will underly either a price breakdown to new lows or a break out upwards of that descending triangle formation and make it a trading range with highs worth challenging.

Here is the harmonic chart:

I put the last calendar year above in smoke to show what a failed seasonal low might involve, that is descent to new lows at year end. the robust harmonic has been shown pretty often recently and makes a low very soon. There is a responsive harmonic output which comes out intermittently depending on price moves over a preceding three days, and I show it here in blue, with an lovely rising trend from the basing formation. This is more bullish than the more reliable and more robust harmonic which shows weakness into an immediate low, and rally, but into a bullish rising trading range rather than a rising trend. Failure results in approximately 50% of the blue uptrend being converted into a down swing to new lows. No need to guess, trade after the timeline and follow the chosen direction via following bar breakout entry or alternative.

The moving averages indicate an attraction to 27.12-28.05 (currently) and to make this possible the momentum must get over the 50 level (lower pane marked in blue) which is not yet achieved, but silver has made huge efforts to get there. Question is, what about the last little bit? We just got to the orange rsi timeline and didn't make the level. There is a blue timeline shown a good bit out, and a failure could defer this cyclical forecast to after that time, if it fails now. Follow breakouts to the upside, but if breakouts form to the downside beware volatility and very sudden reversals which can come first week of July.

I believe the early July inflection is the more important of the two, but silver could lead and gold follow or vice versa, and both of these could thus become operative. It may be that silver has made it's choice or will at month end, and gold will hold deciding until early July as shown

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. FOR DISCUSSION-INSTRUCTIONAL PURPOSES. ALL PREVIOUS WARNINGS ON THIS THREAD-FORUM APPLY!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 3:01pm
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Geopolitical Violence Cycle

Geopolitical Violence Cycle peak next Wednesday to end of week. A strong one. Effects may linger with a repeaking echo of the wave 14 days after. People in certain situations please take notice.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 4:23am
Solsson
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It did not quite play out as

It did not quite play out as planned for devilsmetal:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/5871/bull-trap-or-bull-crap?page=5#comments

He thinks Bo Polny is one of the greatest chartmakers in the world. Bo's prediction is a sharp fall on Monday.

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 6:19am
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That thread is still

That thread is still relatively new, but already full of lessons .....

I'll pop back for a while to post something in the AM Blog later.

Enjoy your weekend everybody.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 7:35am
ILYA OYVEY
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I'm a bull in the long term but in the short term

I've come to the conclusion after looking at the various inflection points that the next two years we will remain in a bear market for Gold. Gold will hit it's next inflection point down. And then will zig saw around for the next two years with some surprises along the way. We could get to a $900 level as some have said before but my thinking is 1100 will be the low and we will go between 1100 and 1200 based on the anotomicals of the charts. Bo will be a thing of the past as December is when we get our low. I'm afraid to say that the next tie we see 1450 will probally be 2016 second half of the year. I suspect that will be when the bull regains full and some of the gold bulls will be in Vegas trying to get their money back

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 7:40am
ILYA OYVEY
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Whats intersting

GDP keeps going down, the markets look great, prices are increasing and gold goes down. Need to see what really is going on. Gold's impact will be very little in the next two years. KWN keeps screaming . They will have to scream another two years.

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 7:44am
Spartacus Rex
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@ OY VEY SCHTOOPED! $900 level

i.e. Your CLUELESS, Right?

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 8:02am
Spartacus Rex
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@ OY VEY SCHTOOPED!...

? חתול קיבל את הנאום שלך​

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 8:06am
Spartacus Rex
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@ OY VEY SCHTOOPED!...

And HE'S GONE! LOL!

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 8:35am (Reply to #5802)
Green Lantern
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ILYA OYVEY wrote:gold bulls

ILYA OYVEY wrote:
gold bulls will be in Vegas trying to get their money back

I can't disagree with this especially the miners. They'll be some price level among retail buyers who want to get out of these asset classes and will dump everything and run home to their momma's crying after the last few years. It won't be manipulative selling either although it will be attributed to it. ETF and institutional funds will nose dive to give back the money to those who need the cash that bought too much too early. Especially in the miners. I don't trust the majority of humans to hold out more than 4 years without heading for the exits first chance.

That sentiment has already been represented in this forum and I have no doubt that we will see that sentiment sell the heck out of the metals at some point and create a very strong upper resistance level. That might include devilmetals type of reactive thinking that the monkey's always have to slam the metals and they go short out of habit.

At what levels? No idea. 1500-1600's? Don't believe it's going to be a straight ride up so I ain't putting any money on Bo's $2000 by years end. It would be nice if that type of selling does occur in 2014. That way we can dispense with having to listen to all those who are trying to become hero's invoking cycles. Clean the space, although don't trust humans to give up allegiances either despite bad track records. Humans aren't good at acknowledging their wrong thinking. Then we might see AM's possible flash crash to the upside. Just my speculation.

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 8:39am
ILYA OYVEY
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What's interesting

Is the hot air that exist when another POV is expressed that is totally opposite of what others think should occur. Anger that exist is interesting. Remember the governement experienments that assess popluation reactions. This could be an interesting experiment on the so called enlighten folks that now where gold is going. Anyone following AM over the past knows that marekts can take many actions. Why not consider a scenario where we are in a bear for another two years. There have been longer bear markets.

The intersting thing about my posts is that i really haven't said anything so bad about anybody and I've actually praised AM, Yet the reactions show me signs that there are many emotional people on these threads and they feel what they feel and see what they see. Name calling from the enlgithend. Interesting to see AM has ignored all my post. He's on the opiside of many of you and seems to have a specialness.

I bet AM is looking at these post and wondering how these post align with the inflection points vs. getting angry and saying "stop saying that" None of us will know who any of us are expect for AM who has put his arsh on the line and we all know who he is and where he's from

All you others get to hide behind your little fantasy name and show how big you are by expressing your emotionals. You would all make bad generals AM on the otherand...

I know the idea of gold not going anywhere for two years really get's under your skin. Ha.. when the SHTF i know who to stay away from.

Remember gold is controlled, but only to an extent.

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 8:42am
Spartacus Rex
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@ OY VEY SCHTOOPED!...

Nevertheless talks about AU @ $900! LMAO

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 8:45am
Green Lantern
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Spartacus, $900.  He is using

Spartacus, $900. He is using mockery. He doesn't believe it. He represents disenfranchised bulls reacting to somebodies call of an extended bear market through 2015. He's mocking theat person who made that call. That's the emotion that gave rise to him. But it's absolutely no different than the bears who come here pissed off at AM for being long term bullish when they want to get out forever. An interesting turn of events since I believe that's the first time we saw that type of person. A sign from the Gods?

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 8:47am (Reply to #5808)
ILYA OYVEY
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Big boys

Big boys now that an opposing point of view is playing devils advocate. It's required to test ones assumptions about how right they are. To look at the other side is a strength, to say how will this impact me in the longer term. I suspect most of the reactions from people are not in posistions of power or have not been in the posistion of managing anything of size.

If you where you would pose a question. "What makes you say that". But we here "im blocking you".

Remember gold will have it's run. But the weak will not see the light of day.

ILYA repin while an arsh hole was a test for all of us. We should remembmer him as he was. A screw ball but his advice, while probally wrong, can not be ignored

randomness