The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 9:20am
brokerk22
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Silver

Must keep silver down! Cant keep silver down! Keep pissing in the wind monkeys.

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 10:06am
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That's the reason I started

That's the reason I started it. Money users were carving up the people I saw buying dips, and I have my own past experiences to motivate me.

The RNP? I also have to live, and if I take time from one thing which i do for a living another must replace it.

An aside, cycle analysis has become commonplace in the period since I started this thread up. I leave readers to consider cause and effect there, but also advise caution against looking at the wrong cycles when major forces are exerted upon markets. I'm not going to go into details. It's in the flow of posts I make at TFMR realtime, and described better in RNP.

Dagney has a big point at the moment, and it only has to begin to work to her scenario to dismiss the bearish alternative. Dagney's scenario is at odds with competing assumptions of simple 12 month repetition being currently passed around. The alternative to Dagney's scenario is that this is a McBottom of 12 months, within second part of a larger McBottom of 36 months and we just made the second high of the smaller pattern. This pattern has to be broken before completion for new bullishness to prevent new lows with consequent rejuventation of bears, and the time for that is very close. The next swing is therefore important, or to put it another way as I posted recently, the price level at which buying emerges to deal with reducing price of precious metals is crucial.

Charts later!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 10:14am
klempaton
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this was Ilya's last email to

this was Ilya's last email to us before he went offline after people like Jazz ruined it for us. Sent morning of 23rd June.

Sorry, but i been informed that Jazzboy the idiot has been re posting what i say on the TFMR site. Sorry but i dont want my ideas and my dates posted on that website.

Last words, a repetition of what i have been saying all year. My long term analysis has not changed.

GOLD IS GOING LOWER NEXT YEAR > ANY UPSIDE THIS YEAR A SELLING OPPORTUNITY.


My Short term call is this. Very clear. The cycle i talked about last week came in today. 23rd June. i said it will hit Crude and Silver.

Daily crude now bearish. Monthly Crude is now bearish. No one but me is saying this.. i am the only analyst saying its time to get out of crude oil. here and now as of this week. all the "pros" are saying iraq will go offline and we are about to go to 200$ WTI. I say Iraq will be resolved and 80$ WTI by next Spring

Daily bar sequences are complete on silver, now bearish. Gold is bearish.

As Oil is a bubble. bearish on monthly time frame. It is going to be a bear market very very soon. This will lower and pressure all prices of Metals XPT XPD XAG XAU. Grains, Softs and emerging markets.

Comm FX and EM FX are bearish against the USD, GBP and EU.

Commods are not the place to be. EMs are going to be smashed by next year.

TLT going to 118 this year. this may support gold (or it may not) for anothr spike in H2.

In Q4 TLT will top out. Bonds will get hammered and collapse. I have no idea what this will do to the market. My guess is that it may give a sell off in everything due to the rate of the rise.. but it will be a buying opportunity for DMs which i am extremely bullish on long term. USD may have made a generational low already.

So feel free to repost this over at TFMR for me if you have an account. Just so cocknose and the rest of the lemings can see it on the record.

And that is all. So long and farewell.

Duncan


Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 10:35am
brokerk22
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dollar

Man this dollar is going to wreck so bad. Watching the trading in this disaster makes me cringe on how ugly this is going to be when it blows. Look how the dollar just cant go anywhere despite their support. It is obvious this thing is a ticking time bomb.

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 6:51pm Nemraci
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Nemraci wrote: I dunno Ivars,

Nemraci wrote:

I dunno Ivars, I see a breakdown of an ascending wedge pattern.

If I'm right, I guess your channel should break soon as well.

Bottom of the GSR channel broken...

Nemraci

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 7:10pm
Dagney Taggart
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Yep. It is.

From earlier in the week, here's something quick I did in Microstation that I could refresh.....


-There is no difference between democracy and communism when the majority are unproductive.
Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 9:18pm klempaton
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klempaton wrote:this was

klempaton wrote:

this was Ilya's last email to us before he went offline after people like Jazz ruined it for us. Sent morning of 23rd June.

Sorry, but i been informed that Jazzboy the idiot has been re posting what i say on the TFMR site. Sorry but i dont want my ideas and my dates posted on that website.

Sounds like Ilya had other messengers lurking in the background reporting back to him here eh?? Tattle tales as my kindergarten teacher called them.

Don't fool yourself klempaton. It was Ilya who ruined it for you. It shows how much dedication he had for you and his free subscribers contrary to his selfless image he tried to portray. Not a very loyal act? If he believed that he formed a secret network of loyal subscribers that cared for him, he was sadly mistaken and wasn't long for the newsletter world. So I'm told, newsletters get passed around and most writers account for that type of loss. It was only a matter of time that it would show up here again. I don't endorse that type of thing but that's human nature.

Seems to me you hitched yourself to the wrong writer. He was a fool to think that his continued private character assassinations on just about everybody here wouldn't see the light of day. You ever notice how carefully AM treads on those type of issues? Must be a reason.

I'll admit to having read a few but the continued character assassinations and market assertions that things would happen without any explanation other than I say so fits right into AM's Pied Piper articles.

I really have no ill will toward the guy and too bad it didn't work out for him or for you. I'm sincere in my words. But don't blame others here for somebody elses behavior. They are not responsible.

Hopefully, this inflection point drama is done. If ever there were a living example of how inflection points work on forums, this would be it. My guess is only one person saw it. My guess is this concludes the Ilya Cycle. Really is some poetic justic in this whole thing. Love the way this stuff works.

Yours Truly,

Lemming

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 10:30pm
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Return Of The Golden Cross

Nemraci

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 2:11am
klempaton
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Hi GL. All fair comments but

Hi GL. All fair comments but i feel your angle of approach is incorrect.

Ilya may have just checked this thread himself, why would he need a spy to report for him, its and open thread!? The spies were in his private email group, people like Jazz. Agreed, Ilya was rude and lacking in consideration, but the point is, this is because he knew he could make money from the markets. He didnt want a newsletter. I and i think many others suggested it to him in private emails, he didn't want to be part of "the newsletter brigade" as he relentlessly called it and that was that. AM is extremely polite and courteous to all, perhaps because he wants to not make any enemies, to write a newsletter for income and not make money from trading?

No one cares now anyway. There is still value on this thread. Repin was a very brash person, he did not mince his words and didn't really care what people thought. This helped me trust him actually as it was clear he was not trying to make friends to later charge money he was just sharing (and ranting) for free. Lets just put this Repin nonsense to bed now. None of us will hear from him again now anyway.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 3:20am Nemraci
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Yes 3 year trend has been

Yes 3 year trend has been broken in silver to upside, GSR to the downside. True. I hope its serious but not collapse as USD shall not collapse before China is ready to take share of reserve currency function. It should take few years . My target year for China becoming clear second World banker besides the USA is 2017. In principle, even if gold still dips, it should go up slowly but surely until then (2017). The price I have been looking at is 1500-1600 , but that is based on bitcoin post bubble behavior, so just by analogy.

In principle, as soon as China(Roths) start to become accepted reserve currency printers, and Yuan takes some share in foreign reserves which shows process is irreversible, pressure on USD shall drop- hence I expect stabilization of Gold prices in USD after 2017, for some time.

Rockefeller plane death was no doubt part of the agreement between Rocks and Roths to share the world in influence zones - on highest levels. Such agreement usually require signature in blood to earn trust. Remember deaths of e.g. Kenneth Lay ( Bushes signing in blood), Mandela ( Obama signing in blood), now Rockefeller ( David Rockefeller signing in blood to keep promises to Roths) etc.

On lower level, there will be always fight for position , but grand scheme has been agreed. Notice Chinese participation in USA lead naval exercises.

Of course both Rocks ( masons) and Roths ( Jews) know that if Chinas share in reserve currency will continue to grow ( which it will) one day quite soon Roths will want 100% rule of the world again, not shared. That moment - perhaps after 20 years - may see USA /China clash. Roths are carefully planning for that trying to see that Obama takes USA strength down as much as possible by all means available to him ( demoralization, defense reductions, tricks slowing down economy). Inclusion of Fisher as FED vicechair also increases Roth control over FED and is part of the deal.

Quote:
On May 21, 2014, the Senate confirmed Fischer's appointment to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.[21] In a separate vote on June 12, he was confirmed as the vice chair.[21]

Rockefeller died on June 13th, right? Senate was waiting to confirm Fisher since January when Obama nominated him. Then suddenly they the do it on June 12th, ON THE BIRTHDAY of Rock Emperor David Rockefeller:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Rockefeller

There is a family gathering to celebrate DAVIDS 10 years on June 12th..and his son dies next day when leaving family grounds on his plane he has been flying for zillion years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Rockefeller

Family security was involved obviously in damaging the plane. Signature in blood from old David-killing own son- message to the Roths that both sides still stick to agreements.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 4:39am
Hammer
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If you want a real larf, The

If you want a real larf, The Knights Templar were rounded up and betrayed by The King of France on Friday, October 13th.............wait for it..................1307.......hehe. If my data is wrong - apologies. Just a quick scan on the net. https://www.unsolved-mystery.com/789

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 6:11am klempaton
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klempaton wrote: Hi GL. All

klempaton wrote:

Hi GL. All fair comments but i feel your angle of approach is incorrect.

Ilya may have just checked this thread himself, why would he need a spy to report for him, its and open thread!? .

Because the first line of his message says "i've been informed" And his IP Address was blocked from TFMR. Obviously he could have read it from another computer.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 7:26am
redwood
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Options expiry today,

Options expiry today, anything is possible.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 9:25am
foscotanner
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simplicity

I will keep my analysis very simple.

Look at silver on stockcharts. It just keeps on rising.

So we have a very simple scenario. If it does not go down today then it is very quickly. What a run of up days.....

Anyone remember a run like that before. I seem to remember the run from Jan 11 to Apr 11 started like that.

We had solid up days. Day after day. But nothing special. Then we had a consolidation. Then boom. Things just went crazy. Just a thought. I am trying to remember the last Aug rally. That didnt quite go boom though (or if it did just in the other direction)

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 9:41am
brokerk22
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Smell

This is has the distinct smell of hyperinflation.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 10:44am brokerk22
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AU 1HR MA

Gold 1 Hour moving averages are looking for a move.

Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 11:15am
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Friday Updates

The Gold Silver Ratio is going according to the chart I posted on 24th June. Now we reach the challenging period between the two inflections, but so far, it's working absolutely beautifully! Here it is updated:

Here is spot gold with everything required to plan trades for the coming month. Note the middle of the three rising amber trendlines which gold jumped down and back up through. That's where it is all happening. Gold has to find support there and stay above that. Also gold must challenge the stone grey descending trendline above, and the upper amber trendline where I marked with a little box. The selling and buying during resolving this could cause a trading range to form, even though that seems unlikely given wars etc going on.

If technical analysis above fails to offer enough clarity, even with significant timelines marked (watch where the trendlones and timelines cross each other!) below is the updated harmonic projection for gold. Gold is extremely chaotic at the moment but the algo has produced an output worth my and your attention:

Inverted robust projection working fine, which is the middle redline. Gold has shaken off the responsive harmonic (blue) and standard robust harmonic (lower redline)s. Next inflection of medium term is marked. It will likely be characterized by making the choice between a range breakout to the upside Vs a return to within the range with pullback to the range centre or lower area. This forecast seems noticeable simpler than the chart above it. It will be interesting to see how they reconcile their apparent differences.

Silver is approaching it's own major inflection. Inflection involves the events which will underly either a price breakdown to new lows or a break out upwards of that descending triangle formation and make it a trading range with highs worth challenging.

Here is the harmonic chart:

I put the last calendar year above in smoke to show what a failed seasonal low might involve, that is descent to new lows at year end. the robust harmonic has been shown pretty often recently and makes a low very soon. There is a responsive harmonic output which comes out intermittently depending on price moves over a preceding three days, and I show it here in blue, with an lovely rising trend from the basing formation. This is more bullish than the more reliable and more robust harmonic which shows weakness into an immediate low, and rally, but into a bullish rising trading range rather than a rising trend. Failure results in approximately 50% of the blue uptrend being converted into a down swing to new lows. No need to guess, trade after the timeline and follow the chosen direction via following bar breakout entry or alternative.

The moving averages indicate an attraction to 27.12-28.05 (currently) and to make this possible the momentum must get over the 50 level (lower pane marked in blue) which is not yet achieved, but silver has made huge efforts to get there. Question is, what about the last little bit? We just got to the orange rsi timeline and didn't make the level. There is a blue timeline shown a good bit out, and a failure could defer this cyclical forecast to after that time, if it fails now. Follow breakouts to the upside, but if breakouts form to the downside beware volatility and very sudden reversals which can come first week of July.

I believe the early July inflection is the more important of the two, but silver could lead and gold follow or vice versa, and both of these could thus become operative. It may be that silver has made it's choice or will at month end, and gold will hold deciding until early July as shown

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. FOR DISCUSSION-INSTRUCTIONAL PURPOSES. ALL PREVIOUS WARNINGS ON THIS THREAD-FORUM APPLY!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Jun 27, 2014 - 3:01pm
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Geopolitical Violence Cycle

Geopolitical Violence Cycle peak next Wednesday to end of week. A strong one. Effects may linger with a repeaking echo of the wave 14 days after. People in certain situations please take notice.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 4:23am
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It did not quite play out as

It did not quite play out as planned for devilsmetal:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/5871/bull-trap-or-bull-crap?page=5#...

He thinks Bo Polny is one of the greatest chartmakers in the world. Bo's prediction is a sharp fall on Monday.

Sat, Jun 28, 2014 - 6:19am
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That thread is still

That thread is still relatively new, but already full of lessons .....

I'll pop back for a while to post something in the AM Blog later.

Enjoy your weekend everybody.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets