your posts are about as relevant as a goose farting in the fog. Imagine what a terrible read it would be if some idiot kid had added has own pubescent drivel every other line in your favorite novel. That's how some of us feel. Please stop skidmarking so much, write less. Some of us (me included) should just stay readers on this thread. Bye, back to the shadows for me.
If that is your sentiment than why write at all, much less, less. Thanks for your opinion. I'll stay out of the way.
PS. Despekke, I don't want to mess up AM's magnificent thread, so let's just stop here. Thanks.
Despekke,you must to suffer from an SDS bro....
Why to be so rude,if you don't post much, then stay that way.Don't like some posts?-skip over them.
I for one like Redwoods posts.
Good upbringing rule-if you don't have anything good to say,just stay quiet.You've must be raised in the woods I'd guess.
Redwood,don't give up cause of some dweep's opinion man...... ;))
Here is the chart I posted July 2013 with a line drawing estimate of things to come for Gold:
And here is how it worked out. Gold price overlaid over the original dark gray in red and updated to April 2014:
Trading ranges are tough, being the period when there is most randomness present. I got the start of the range spot on, and it's estimated dimensions fairly well, but the rapid inversionary swings put it into reverse polarity (ie swings were temporarily upside down) for a few months. This analysis, which we have passed some 10 months now, is well past it's maximum value time - however note the price of gold is still oscillating between the upper and lower range estimates I calculated last summer. So I reproduce it here in updated chart so readers can make their own personal appraisal of my track record here in this thread. No outrageous marketing claims. Just you observe what it was I managed to do over a year and two months, what I got right and got wrong, and appraise for yourself the value of my work.
My take on the fresh chart is that we seem to be trundling along a variant of my 2013 "middle scenario". If I could go back in time and adjust my original chart I'd lower the incoming interim lows for Q2 2014 a little, and raise the major low later in 2014 a bit higher, and split that single low into a double low. But that's work for a future post.
Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html
This analyst - global markets
argentus maximus wrote:
Good Stuff AM! I'll take that margin of error any day.
Apologies for the bad quality.
3- year weekly chart - note the wedging of the chart between the 20-day MA and 50-day MA, note how every time over the last few years that the XGD has come close to the 50-day MA it has gone down. Which way will it break here? (weekly indicators are saying down)
10-Year Monthly Chart - Note how the MACD looks to have bottomed (at or about -1,075).
Gl boys and girls!
Over the past few weeks, I have been thinking more and more that the markets are being completely controlled far more than usual.
This could be an illusion, but it feels real to me.
I dont buy the concept that the market doesnt know which way to go and is therefore trying to decide. Normally one side will flinch and either sell before everyone else or buy before everyone else.
I dont buy the concept that we are seeing a battle between bulls and bears. There isnt the volume.
Therefore the only thing I can buy at the moment is that traders have walked and the only thing moving price at the moment is the controlling mechanism holding price in certain boundaries.
The sky is falling?
Which is it? at the top of A it seemed most readers were super bullish.......
At the bottom of B? it seemed readers for the most part became bearish?
I believe we have seen the low for B down but B may not be over as we may find ourselves in a contracting sideways pattern that will bore to tears before C up gets underway....
If one looks at the large inverted H&S pattern forming, the left shoulder certainly contained the sideways movement and if we get that symmetry, we should see it again.....
This A-B-C has been the primary roadmap since the post of Jan 2.......
I need not turn on my screen for weeks at a time. I reject this sedentary life and for that matter the persuit of luxury or wealth beyond what is necessary....
So everyone go out and enjoy springtime.....we never know when it will be our last.....
I guess will never see him again..800 gold not in the cards. can keep calling it. but if the pattern has been the pattern and AM has called thepattern and the pattern has been the pattern then the next phase is coming
been calling for the end of the world for ever. i guess eventually he will be right but most of us will be dead
Read this book
It's irrelevant what you think/feel. During the bear market bottom in '49 the volume on the NYSE was less than what it was during the Great Depression of the 30's, does that sound weird? What if I said the cost of a chair on the exchange was less both in real AND NOMINAL terms at the bear bottom in '49 versus the preceding 17 years. I will say, before anyone chimes in, that the bottom as Napier measures it is based on Tobin's-Q ratio. The volumes of the recent few decades have only just started to compare to the volumes seen (as a percentage of total listen companies) back in the 1920s-1930s.
Also another idea frequently touted is seeing a complete "capitulation" bottom with high volume. In all 4 great bear bottoms in the book (where Tobin's-Q hit 0.3 or there-abouts), the volumes were low and there was no capitulation event!
As an aside here is Russell in September 2009:
Hope this helps,
Just a Regular Guy
@Just A REgular Guy:
Thanks for the recommendation.
GREAT recommendation! That book is one of the the unsung classics--difficult to get through, but full of not-so-obvious truth. Napier possesses a first-rate analytical mind (abysmal prognosticator, though--just like everyone else...LOL)
The reason there is no classic "capitulation" at the very bottom of the Great Bears is that it is a period more characterized as "abandonment"--where an asset class has performed so poorly, for so long, that it is largely forgotten (companies in drawn-out bankruptcies, bonds in the early Eighties, housing in the Thirties, would be good examples). PMs are nowhere near that point--quite the contrary, with erstwhile bulls touting the next move up virtually non-stop. Napier would say we are in for a resumption of the Bull--or a very long way down.
Mr. Byra I am sure as a child (or maybe still) tortured spiders by pulling their legs off.....
But IMHO he (it) is correct on that gold price target, only IMHO his timing and reasons are incorrect.....
This a 50% ish upside correction before the bottom drops out for paper gold.....
This upside correction is important as it will allow TPTB to lock in cheap gold via anxious miners quick to hedge their resource at the slightest profit margin after the deep psychological damage TPTB have inflicted....
Again, IMHO the primary count says $800 or lower........and then IMHO trading will be halted....
This will NOT occur because gold is reviled.....just it's paper representation which will be thrown down in disgust as it will fail to deliver what it promises.....
I will not enter into a debate on these thoughts. They are just posted here for the record.....
It has been my belief for the last few months, that deflation will come big time in the next few months/year. In the book I alluded to (Anatomy of the Bear), during the 30's (and I believe the stock bear market bottom in '21) the bond market was in bear mode too, i.e. there was a general decline in prices, and an increase of interest rates. I cannot remember what the Fed was doing in the 30's (but if I remember correctly they WERE manipulating the yield-curve), but in the '20s it's harder in that the Fed had only been around for a short-space of time, similarly of note the '20s the German's were exporting deflation (as were Austria and Hungary) as they were busy printing their currencies into oblivion, so the deflation felt by other countries and the price disturbances are also more-than-likely a consequence of the policies of these countries post losing WW1.
Getting back to $800 gold, the noises I have heard in the press are that China are going to "restructure" their economy, i.e. they MAY start bankrupting/liquidating their mis-allocations of capital. The Chinese are the people that propped up the world post 2008 via the printing press. Of note you can see now there is talk of the Europeans engaging in QE to prop-up the world via credit-creation! Funny how it works eh? Note too, with regards to my deflation theme, although I do not believe it'll crush the stock market in a very quick/short/fast way, I do believe, based on my own research and also what Arg. Max. posted a while back regarding the ASX/XJO to 4200ish that it makes sense! The Australian market, based on my research is going to drop from 5400 to say 4800 (a high probability) in short order (less than 2 months), and then possibly to anywhere between 4500-4000 depending on what the new government's budget looks like and what leaks hit the news regarding it ....
Further, seeing as Australia is tied to China, that is Australia exports a lot of raw materials to China, it makes sense with regard to China detonating/liquidating the shadow-banking system that the ASX will get smashed. I have further drawn some stuff up that makes me believe that the market in Australia will bounce back to say 5000-5200 by this time next year (assuming the down-draft comes first of course), maybe a bit more, but once we get there, it is game over. The Real Estate market here is GROSSLY overpriced and if you look @ stock charts of the four big banks here (ANZ/CBA/WBC/NAB) they are all (except ANZ) painting big H&S topping patterns.
Getting back to bonds, I think most of us would agree bonds, over the last year, have increased in yield (i.e. decreased in price) similarly I think most would agree that any MORE significant increases in interest rates (especially @ the short end) would crush the phoney world-wide recovery, but this is what (I believe) will happen. This scenario, where deflation due to the lack of political will to print more credit (see some stuff from Andrew Duncan explaining this idea) will smash ALL asset markets. In an interview I saw with Napier he said there are times throughout history where all asset classes declined in price. So, if we assume the Fed (as they apparently are) are going to pull back on the QE, and allow rates to rise, and certainly looking @ yield curves, they are rising, this should be, I believe, deflationary, because economies/banks have been living in fantasy land since 2008, where the world should have gone through a nasty debt-liquidation/debt-deflation, but the central banks around the world propped up the system for whatever reasons. God only knows what the next stage will entail, but I don't think it'll come about till after the markets have gone through a pretty big deflationary scenario. I would envisage at this point it'll be time to load up the boat with gold (assuming you have not lost your house), but even before then might be a good idea (in case the gold market breaks).
As always, this is NOT INTENDED to be gospel truth, it is just a guess based on a few half-truths going through my mind, keep your wits about you, and watch this year (already in its fourth month! Jesus time flies), stuff is going to develop rapidly. Will gold reach $800? I don't know, but I still believe that deflation is coming this year (i.e. cheaper gold), if not towards the end of the year/next year as the fed gets out (probably only for a short-period of time) of the money printing business. Don't be scared to change your view on stuff, I recently wanted to buy bonds (year I know, I am sick), but I might hold out just a little more, as I think the bonds I want to buy will increase in yield shortly.
Take care and good-luck out there boys and girls!
I meant "Richard Duncan".... There are some good youtube clips of his. Check him out.
Just A Regular Guy-Good stuff all around!
Thanks for sharing that book and your thoughts!!
Kid Salami wrote: Look at the unretraced long weekly bar from the $1270 resistance area - that level must be retested before any sustained move higher. If we keep going higher now without revisiting this level, then this suggests to me that this move is just a move inside a larger range, that this level will be revisited some time much later, and hence that the gonad pain isn't over.
Look at the unretraced long weekly bar from the $1270 resistance area - that level must be retested before any sustained move higher. If we keep going higher now without revisiting this level, then this suggests to me that this move is just a move inside a larger range, that this level will be revisited some time much later, and hence that the gonad pain isn't over.
Last week price tagged the daily swing high ($1279) made before that long weekly bar giving the price some structure, and so it is now free to move higher - not that it WILL move higher, just that now it can without looking over it's shoulder.
A double top at the end of the bubble- not unusual:
today: 2250 tons or 40% of world's gold passes through Dubai
I thought China imports it's gold via Hong Kong.....
who then is importing all this gold via Dubai? this is a rhetorical question.....
THE GOLD MUST FLOW OR THE $ RESERVE SYSTEM DIES !!!