The setup for the big trade

Within 3 sessions it appears to me that the BBs (with the CBs, PPT, & Co) will kick the metals off the window ledge they are presently on and dump them into freefall. This is imminent. Some stop levels will be crashed through. Some stop levels will have massive buying force contained within them. The question is how much drop in price is achieved for how much short sales. They have the exact figure, we can observe the volume and price chart to see footprints they leave and can not hide. 

This will be the contest for this swing. I mean "contest" in the sense of "crucial point of the matter". How much price is moved through while this freefall stage is in progress, or how little, or any move at all. The shorts meet the remaining bulls and one side wins. If they sell into it and it doesn't budge, that's it. Price direction for the coming month gets decided there and then. (With a couple of hiccups.) They will instantly move into a precalculated program of collapsing the short side of their spread position, retaining the longs, and try to be the first to cover their shorts in the new bear squeeze-bull.

They will do that by putting on longs in correlated markets, flash crashing the PMs up through traders stops, and closing their correlated trades to produce their bear closure trade within the gap on the PM chart. Somebody must have explained this trading move somewhere but I can elaborate if required. Bottom line: If the miners rise while the physical is falling, or stopping falling, watch out for the next open, or guard against a flash crash up during open session.

I believe at the moment that should the BBs try this after Feb 21st, it will only work if the metals are already below the monthly support & resistance at that time, BUT  if the metals have stopped falling and are above support at that time they will have their leveraged portfolios wiped out in minutes and their corporate heads handed to them on a plate.

It's not looking so good for them at the moment. Look at how much, or little, price declined during recent interventions versus interventions several weeks ago. A (loose) wedge is being created due to successive falls decreasing in size.

The next COT will tell a very interesting story, but by the time we see it the chart will already contain much of it.

Charts .... after I get some work done.

Questions about fibonacci .... I use it in many ways.

Here is a swing chart using Fibonacci to measure the bounce after BBs give it a tap. (The red bars show when it was knocked surreptitiously on the head and when they bought back in their paper shorts.) So this chart measures the lasting effect of a Bullion Bank & Co short sale input.

The gold produced an 8 day bounce, followed by a 13 day bounce. 8 and 13 are fibonacci numbers, and the next fibonacci number after those is 21. Well ... 21 days from the current bounce takes us to ... coincidentally 20th Feb.

The first drop was 27 handles (big numbers), the next was 58 handles, the coming one we do not yet know.

27 x 210% = 58 approx.

Fib sequence 1,1,2,3,5,8 ..... The third term is 200% of the first and second, so 210% is 5% error of 200% which is a fibonacci ratio.

I assume (!) that the coming bounce-swing may be 100% or 1.618% of the first swing.

 That would produce targets of 1625 or 1609. These happen to be support levels created on 17th and 21st August 2012 basis the continuation future for Gold Comex.

It is all interesting stuff, Fibonacci, as it seems to be tied into market rhythms in many ways. But it is what price does in the current moment Vs. our forecast that matters, not any particular forecast itself.

Senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards assassinated in Syria

Alabama county broke, debt deal with European bank

Meteorite hits Russia, explosion, 500 people hurt

Asteriod flies by Earth within Satellite Orbit

Horsemeat scandal intensifies horse drugs in human foodchain

Draghi Currency Talks Fruitless, G20 Disagreement

Billionaire sells his personal A380 to generate investment cash

JPMorganChase fires traders, 4% pay cuts imposed

Mobile phone global sales decline for first time ever

Airbus ditches lithium ion battery technology in favour of conventional power storage in new A350 aircraft

... and in case you didn't notice, Brent Crude has moved to the top of its trading range in 3 timeframes, in weekly, daily and hourly chart .....

But it's all happenstance, random disconnected events that can not be synchronized, no way, move on folks ....

...except in post #15 above I somehow was able to say:

All I'm doing here is drawing attention to connections between items of power transfer which otherwise seem disconnected, except for their time synchrony. We have 6 days to go, which is plenty of time for global geopolitical paranoia and power shift news releases to accelerate into a climax of public perception and revaluation of assets.

JazzTalker wrote:

Thanks for your post. Compelling, Intriguing...where did you learn your talent

I did my first trade in futures over 25 years ago. Too many good sources to begin to mention. Osmosis over time I suppose.

indosil wrote:

So you suggesting it's time to Short Brent Crude??So the same goes for Crude as well??

No. But I would comment that a move away from a cyclic day (that was a reversal or breakout) into the future is less likely to contain a reversal than at any other random time. Therefore after the 21st Feb has been passed by, following the price of oil whatever direction it chooses to go could be a good thing to consider. So a thing called a following bar breakout would provide the suggested strategy to trade the breakout, or the reversal.

Which is to say: on the coming inflection, information will be ... err ... produced .... which make it clear whether we will get inflation or deflation, together with the stagnation we are going to get in either alternative. The markets will begin to revalue their assets to discount this new information by a new direction for price.

heyJoe wrote:

I don't understand much of the TA, but your commentary is very interesting.

Thank you. If you find less material of the sort of approach you wish, let me know by PM, I can always add in a post to address some missing issue. Or I might admit to lack of knowledge in that area, and give a link to a better source than myself..

.

Please make appropriate allowances ... each time I post, or most of them, I am working many bars ahead of the current price bar. Each predictive type post should be taken only as my thoughts based on my subjective reading of a complex market. It's a confidence test to go specific or not each post. When I'm wrong I can be 100% wrong and stops are necessary always! 

The support of Feb 14th is passed by, and we have entered the vertical drop ...

Not long to go before this causes capitulation and the cleanout is over, and assets in stronger hands.

This will put a short term oversold reading on the RSI. There is a long term oversold reading already. Soon we go sideways to unwind the oversoldness, then after a couple of days a last stab down to create a divergence.

Elliott Wave technicians will count this as a wave 3 of 3 of 3 of C I guess.

Still some downdays left, though we will rally and go sideways a bit next. I suppose a tilted megaphone shape pattern is possible (to complete more of a loose wedge). But I wonder where it will have descended to when the smoke clears next week? They are certainly hammering it for all their worth, and on schedule.

Either way, relax, chill, all is in hand, value increases by the hour, and our ship is on course to arrive, for us to board safely quite soon.

Billionaires Soros & Bacon reduce their gold holdings in decline

Blackberry Founder Jim balsille sells stake in phone maker

Mugabe to hold elections in Zimbabwe

Berlusconi says Bribes are necessary, not crimes

German Lawyer to head Vatican Bank

Italian Helicopter Defence Firm Finnmeccanica boss Guiseppe Orsi resigns in bribery scandal

Nazi Looted Louvre Art returned

India Army Kills Pakistan Soldier

Well there you have it: war, invasion, looting, murder, assassination, scandal, winners, losers, corporate outings, gold manipulation, all variants are present and correct in our roll call.

Do I need to go on? Let us reinterpret the meteorite in Russia story as a "The Sun is Falling" banner headline and be done with it. And what did the metal prices do today? Or does the comment in this thread's posts about the descent of gold & silver show a lack of sudden random newsy surprise elements? Could this all just conceivably be ... a process?

Still a couple of days to go. We can watch and learn by seeing the grey men and their strings that pull us.

Opening day of the stacking season is coming