About the most despondent post I've seen this man make in several years and he is always such a cheerful soul. We are clearly at a breaking point.
Giving how much odd is stacked against bulls, the safest tactic has to be longing only when the setup becomes extreme, and we don't have extreme yet when looking at the charts (right click to enlarge).
As of last week, commercial SWAP still had many gold short positions while the banks still had a few silver shorts. BTW GOFO turns positive since last week. Personally I would not take a big long position until either their shorts come down or GOFO goes negative again.. Holding cash is a position when market is that chaotic out there.
sanders sounds like KWN when he says the end is near.
Totally agree, plus here is as clean TA chart as there could be. If one does not expect a move higher every day, influenced by propaganda, then in 2-3 weeks GOLD shall be down to 1180 and that in no way will mark a bottom yet (there can be minor reversals, obviously, but below 1300:
This is where the long term support lies -either around 1220 or 1100 - if not - the last bastion at about 800. It will be still a bull market if gold bounces from 800- or anywhere above it.
Have no clear idea about gold but for silver i will be looking at 13,5-14 to mark the bottom.
I have no much free cash, but for such events - 13,5-14 and 800-900 I shall dig deep into pockets to add as much as I can.
That's the worse news yet Ivars.
With all due respect, you'd do well to go back and reread some of AM's articles on his blog and really digest them. Especially his articles Golden Bear and Gold and Politics pieces. I go back often. These should be published in text books and the concepts memorized.
The concepts he espouses are priceless and the basis of his work in this forum. Many of these concepts are not intuitive and I'm going to venture a guess that alot of people don't get them based on similar comments. Almost never ending. After you've read them, come back and try to make a fact based argument that there is no "reality" or "reason" for these price levels and that the gold market, USD or any other market is not acting according to the basic suppositions of cycle theory.
There is no chaos in the gold market or even the USD market which one could argue is as much manipulated as any other market. If you think so then you disagree with all his articles and if that is the case, I'd like to see somebody make some fact based, chart based rebuttals There is intense volatility, not chaos. AM's articles and charts demonstrate this over and over again. Really internalizing these concepts will save you alot of grief.
Separating emotions from the realities of the market are difficult. But if you don't do it, you really don't believe in the premise of the Big Set Up.
AM saw these levels as a possibility and so have others who use a similar paradigm. That's gotta be some kind of "reality"
I'm not picking on you or trying to be mean or harsh. Only pointing out that it seems you are missing the fundamental suppositions of AM's work. If you focus on the manipulative schemes, without seeing how it plays into the bigger picture, you are missing the point.
Now if AM writes one day and says, the USD, and gold cycles have been broken and they are no longer operating, that's when you go looking for a high ledge until then just grit your teeth.
There may be a misunderstanding here at least from my point of view. I don't think manipulation and cycles are separable entities. They are interwoven so that patterns are decipherable, charts can and should be read. This is akin to the nuture/nature argument. Now we have epigenetics that demonstrate that the two influence each other developmentally. I think the same argument can apply here. Just my 2 cents.
… speaking of what negative GOFO may or may not imply, following helped me better understand – back to waiting patiently for the cycles & ‘big trade’ in the PM’s to unfold
An eloquent and beautiful post.
Wow. Just when I thought I'd given a great compliment on wisdom and understanding what makes markets move!
Another hat tip! You guys are awesome.
I was one day early. Manage your trades accordingly as we are now at about break even. Fail safe stops may be placed under yesterday's low. Good luck to all and it appears that rallies should be shorted; but from what level? I'll stop talking to myself now. (:-) Thank you and cheers.
Excellent chart overlays:
I have no reasons to doubt the conclusion, the war has already started by invasion in Libya, and by election of Obama ( corresponds to 1932 in Germany) ..but i am not sure what forms this war may take initially as there as so many more weapons - both deadly directly and also cyber and Electromagnetic. Also, may be we understand that war is on full scale ( Poland has been invaded in 1939, September 1st) only after the fact. So far no one has really called Libya as start of WWIII seriously, but it could well be that is was. Last Country without CB was annexed. The setup was finalized.
Counter reaction- Egypt now and Russians coming with missiles to Egypt. USA withholding help to Egypt and antagonizing Israel by all possible means. Not a coincidence.
However, I am 100% sure that usage of financial WMD in financial wars between opposing sides ( redwood, you should understand it very well who are they-same nation, bitter enemies of each other) will lead ( and has already led in Syria) to usage of WMD in real wars.
BTW, about Syria- no one really cared ( I mean people at power) about usage of Chemical weapons. World has got used to so powerful weapons that - after Fukushima- a stray nuclear bomb would also not cause much noise or emotions- again, where it counts.
Masses have been made insensitive by video games and movies where nuclear attacks etc. are commonplace.
So while trying to preserve financial wealth.. may be that is not the most important , though useful, thing?
I believe with coming debt ceiling wars in February 2014 ( look at US foreign policy vs. Israel how that has changed in half a year more than in all previous ones) the pace of real military threats are accelerating in parallel. According to charts from ZeroHedge, we live in 1936. Next 2 years are 1937 and 1938. Read history about how during these 2 years the setup for WWII was completed.
As Monty Python would say " ... And now for something completely different! ..." (Python geeks can fill in the rest! ) : I bring readers of The Setup for the Big Trade forum a very long term chart, going back to the silver rushes and depressions of the 1800s, and it even has some long term cycles shown:
It comes from the book Financial Astrology, by David Williams, of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
And here is a link for a bigger chart: https://i1135.photobucket.com/albums/m638/Phisquared2618/silver1850-1950.png
How bizarre you should post that, as I read that book about 2 months ago and took a photo of that exact chart with my phone with the intention of posting it here and must have just forgot. The reason is that he posits a 31 year cycle (and the first edition is back in the 1980s) in Silver, which takes us from 1980 to... hmmm... 2011. My silver stack is getting less appealing as time goes by.
Hi Green Lantern,
While agreeing with the well reasoned content of your post, I appreciated T's post very much as well.
Argentus shares his work with us, but for added credibility it needs to be tested against well-articulated (and of course civil) challenge and a contrarian view, a role which T's post fulfilled nicely. Then the counter argument in turn, which clarifies what Argentus is providing and in light of that well articulated dialogue, then let the reader digest and decide, in light of both views.
It is good to revisit assumptions, and remind ourselves why we position ourselves re gold as we do. everything in the discourse above was done in civil manner, and was therefore both valuable, relevant and healthy.
T did a great job in articulating a challenge to bullishness that all bulls should frequently consider, and the responses to T's posts provided very relevant counter-point and context.
I'm actually still with T on this one, but in a deer-in-headlights kind of way; I still hold my positions.
P.S. good to hear from you.
Ive been following AM very closely and actually follow him off line as well. His timing was called weeks ago regarding the next pivot/down and was extermly accurate in the call and timing. He's indicated that gold could fall back down to the low but must be watched. So far in the last two years everyone has been wrong wrong wrong. AM has posted his chart from this summer and we saw the overlay..impressive. Ok AM is not 100% accurate who is, but he has told us of the next pivots. So far he's been dam close/right.
Has anyone noticed the range we've been in. Ok I can't say what will be, but I can say 99% of the folks have been wrong. AM and there's one other who was right, but I'll let you find out who that was. And it wans't armstrong.
I hope that Argentus does not mind this little philosophical detour, but in something as complex as the gold market, here is how I try to make sense of it all.
Expertise can be applied, from various disciplines, and we the hapless talentless readers, seek the guru who will lead us to the best outcome. Well, we might be without talents of our own, but we can apply a little structure to how we filter all the info.
My own, very emphatic approach, is that I give everybody a hearing, with open mind, and pointedly avoid writing any of them off. The TA guys (norcini, arensberg etc), the fundo guys (Turd et al), the cycle guys (Argentus, EW'ers), the bearish guys, the Austrian school, the firebrand preachers (Jim Willie, KWN), the historians, Krondatieffians etc. I listen to them all.
I add to the mix as a vital ingredient, the contrarians, some who might even have no ideas of their own as such, but who do a good job of challenging our assumptions, and our certainties. I have found SilverWealth over at Pailin's corner, to be proven as a wise and outstanding contributor. Anybody who is unaware of him, you probably lost money this year by not being aware of him. Likewise, though abrasive, I consider Rico to always be mandatory reading.
So back to this thread, the value of Argentus' work is that he is an outstanding exponent of a particular intellectual approach to the gold topic, i.e cycle theory, and we should appreciate all the various approaches (of which this is one). Is it the right approach? Hell I don't know, but only a total fool would ignore it.
Looks like traders are looking for gold to hold above 1274 which corresponds roughly to GLD 123.0. The HUI is moving proportionately with that target in mind. The only problem is that it might not be established until after hours. They always play it so fine tuned to just to keep you sharp.
I'll provide one more response also in hopes that I am not detracting from AM's work.
I have no problems with challenges and contrarian views. It indeed is important for healthy discourse and revealing.
Like Goldmania, I have seen some of AM's work beyond what he provides here and some of it is simply unbelieveable! Some of it borders on genius and while I was familiar with these concepts, I had never seen anybody write on these things in the metals blogisphere with such expertise. Stuff I wish I knew 3 years ago and stuff you can't easily find in the metals blogisphere. I don't easily make such praise but the little he has shown me beyond here took me down a very steep rabbit hole reading a bunch of authors and economists that are little talked about. I had intended to write more on the subject but for personal reasons had to take a sabbatical from my writing.
So based on my own research, I can find no support for T's arguement other than I understand his sentiment. Even the chart that AM just shared from David Williams in itself challenges T's sentiments. The French Assignat article I would have thought would have blown people's minds (it did mine) that in the light of heavy manipulation of currencies (both US and Assignant), the cycle's went undeterred.
In my role as a blogger on TFmetals, I was going to write some very indepth pieces on some of my findings but have had to take some time off to deal with personal issues. Case after case of some of the most profound manipulations in the history of economics didn't change the ultimate course of events. Other authors I've mentioned here have demonstrated the same.
I shared an article about 3 or 4 weeks ago before I took a break that was from Joseph's Farrells blog on some deep physics being explored on economic cycles. It pretty much comes to the same conclusion that economists and physicists are deep at work trying to find ways to interrupt the cycle because no amount of fiat manipulation, monetary policy, libors have been able to do it. So there are scenario's which the gold cycle could be broken but I'm doubtful it can be done. Not impossible. The totality of AM's work would suggest it hasn't been done yet and these levels are well within already existing cycles.
To date, I've not seen work that counters this other than pure emotionalism that says we (metal investors) are screwed until the system collapses. However, I have not yet seen anybody provide a strong fact based argument to support that thesis. I assure you I remain open and objective enough to hearing the counter argument but in general that arguement never is backed by the same expertise as what AM has shown and what he hasn't shown in public. .
I watched some work from some other cycle proponents a few weeks back on youtube that echoed these sentiments. Hopefully I can find them and share them. Once I dig out my other computer from boxes, I might be able to share some of my own research.