The setup for the big trade

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Sat, Oct 19, 2013 - 11:37am
What If
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HUI

How do I get a hui chart on my android phone?

Sat, Oct 19, 2013 - 2:34pm
Byzantium
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HUI chart link

Sun, Oct 20, 2013 - 6:06am
GoldMania3000
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http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Sun, Oct 20, 2013 - 8:14am
ivars
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This was correlation I found

This was correlation I found in March 2013:

And this is how it looks today:

Being bullish on PMs and doom scenarios, reading ZH and TM did not allow me to trade this one direction street...

However, there seems to be some more potential for S&P to the upside- provided QE does not end in 2014 ( it should not given the need for USG to borrow cheaply that will move up after GOP defeat on austerity ).

Also , from the charts its possible to see how easily markets dismissed the second debt ceiling standoff compared to one in summer 2011. This time, there was no dent in the stock upturn drive.

Obviously, markets were right, as the result of negotiations was nothing, no spending cuts. It seems that coming debt ceiling negotiations in January 2014 will just drive stocks into stratosphere as excess reserves available for speculation continue to swell.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Oct 20, 2013 - 1:11pm
ivars
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This gold fork seems to be

This gold fork seems to be still working :

The last figure looks like inverse head and shoulders near completion.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 1:02am
T
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I agree Ivars

that simple pitchfork looks like a good marker.

But I would also draw a parallel line that flows from that august 2013 top, the latest top.

That parallel line would show resistance around 1350-1370, the same right shoulder zone that preceeded the latest fall to 1250

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 7:33am
ivars
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IAMWaiting for your comments

IAM

Waiting for your comments on USD JPY..As I understand, if JPY drops low enough, buying USD denominated assets will be too expensive , while selling them might get interesting?

What kind of USD denominated assets are JPY owners holding or looking to invest? Are they also pension funds? I have heard carry trade mentioned many times, which i understand ( correct me) is one borrows JPY ( in JAPAN or anywhere??) , buys UST, gets some return better than 0 what is possible buying Japanese bonds, sells UST, puts the profit in his balance sheet in JPY. Virtually risk free - if USD JPY rate stays constant.

If USD JPY rate goes to the sky breaking out of triangle, its better to wait before selling the currently owned USD assets while going into new assets may carry too much risk. Would that mean then that devaluation of YEN is bad for carry trade?

Just trying to add one more trading jargon word to things I may understand.

My personal feeling is ( perhaps biased as usual) that USD will move up now as barriers to its fast collapse have been removed (Default risks removed for ever, QE continued as per new FED Chairwoman), while longer collapse - who cares about that?

So, to confirm my bias I drew a fork. Though have I not been biased, I would be looking for double bottom at 74... But the value 80 is actually 270 weeks moving average (5, 15 years) , that is average since the beginning of crisis in sept 2008. Also 325 weeks MA , and 200 week MA. So far this average means that relative to other currencies, USD has not lost anything due to crisis and QE ( everyone did QE, did they not?).

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 8:11am
ivars
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Modified Shiff looks like the

Modified Shiff looks like the most reasonable fork- here , in case USD moves up, oil shall fall a bit more- 97,5 (? )but in general it will gain in price very soon again:

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 8:12am
It's a mystery
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IVARS

https://fofoa.blogspot.com/2013/10/gold-as-forex-currency.html?showComme...

FOFOA is very long winded but he "all of a sudden" ran a piece on gold as FX? Interesting. Because that was the point of this piece.

https://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1381417452.php

$/Yen is the primary driver for asset classes. However, in the last few sessions, SPX has diverged. So, if the $ falls out of the triangle and the YEN rallies, well the Nikkei gets crushed and gold will rally. I have to assume US equities will follow the Nikkei but the divergence is notable.

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 8:17am
ivars
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Looks like USD JPY does not

Looks like USD JPY does not really want to move down..hitting the top of the fork stubbornly n times:

If only this is not head and shoulders sloped...

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 8:56am
50sQuiff
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Yen

You can make the case that it's already broken out and completed two back tests...

https://i.imgur.com/iZCZeWG.png

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 10:39am
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The Euro weekly is tipping

The Euro weekly is tipping overhead resistance, and debating whether to make a new high or not.

What's interesting about it is that there is a medium term timeline here, and time-wise, whichever way the Euro breaks through to new high or reversal, it will have a good number of weeks to continue in that chosen direction. Plenty of time gives ability to generate plenty of price in a trend.

SLW, after breaking down, has regained it's place above support. This leaves the breakdown as a false break, or a successful retest of support. So this week and next will see many market indecisions resolved in favour of one side, and settle things for a while.

Many miners have been attacked, and fallen sharply, but long term support is intact for several. This will also get noticed and buying will not be long following. All they have to do is hold over support for about ten days.

I'm still fully long metals.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 11:00am
redwood
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Gold and silver are moving

Gold and silver are moving like drunken sailors and I think may soon stagger to the ground, if not collapse with exhaustion. The dollar is slowly rising and that will put pressure on the metals. WS.

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 11:40am
It's a mystery
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So Precious Metals Gllom and Doomer HUI to zero

Rambus has now flipped long. So, all the weekly charts etc showing great symmetry all are forgotten. The $ has a diamond top. Amazing.

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 11:50am
SamSchlepps
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IAM - Moar quist for the machine

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 1:13pm
redwood
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The HUI just dropped at a

The HUI just dropped at a time of day when it rises. Not a good sign. jmho

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 3:15pm
It's a mystery
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Two year chart of $/Yen

i

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 3:57pm
It's a mystery
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GDX

wants higher in a VERY big way if these charts play out.

Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 4:21pm
ivars
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Listening and reading about

Listening and reading about French asignats as per AM homework task. I think this is a moment we can identify and which also corresponds to a point in asignat and Inverted gold USD curve:

Quote:
The third outgrowth of the vast issue of fiat money was the Maximum. As far back as November, 1792, the Terrorist associate of Robespierre, St. Just, in view of the steady rise in prices of the necessaries of life, had proposed a scheme by which these prices should be established by law, at a rate proportionate to the wages of the working classes. This plan lingered in men's minds, taking shape in various resolutions and decrees until the whole culminated on September 29, 1793, in the Law of the Maximum.
. This led to a jump in value of asignat from 30 to 50 ecus. The modern analogue to this is -the first debt ceiling debate which tried to put a Maximum on debt and brought in Grand Bargain budget with following sequester. That solution- application of analoque of Maximum to the issuance and source of USD supply- USG debt. French National convention tried to cap the prices in paper currency; US congress tried to cap the amount of issued paper currency; both failed against a law of nature, it seems:
Quote:
On July 31, 2011, two days prior to when the Treasury estimated the borrowing authority of the United States would be exhausted, Republicans agreed to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for a complex deal of significant future spending cuts.
In what followed the USD price in gold went up - gold price went down. And is still down. However, more analogy follows: A little sidestep - Modern Money Theory appears along with paper money:
Quote:
And now was seen, taking possession of the nation, that idea which developed so easily out of the fiat money system;—the idea that the ordinary needs of government may be legitimately met wholly by the means of paper currency;—that taxes may be
dispensed with. As a result, it was found that the assignat printing press was the one resource left to the government, and the increase in the volume of paper money became every day more appalling. Back to debt ceiling analogy with Maximum:
Quote:
Ultimately, the General Maximum proved to be controversial and unenforceable. In December 1794, it was repealed.
So law of Maximum lasted from September 29, 1793 to December 1794, or 1 year and 2 months. According to AM overlay of 2 charts in his Main Street post, what was 1 year in asignat history, is approximately 2,3 years in the last chapter of USD history. So we take July 31st, 2011 and add 2,3*1,2 years= 2, 66 years ( 2 years and 8 months) , and what do we get: February 2014! So we continue the history of the USD which is paper(electronic) that is issued by USG debt:
Quote:
Ultimately, the Debt Ceiling proved to be controversial and unenforceable. In February 2014, it was repealed.
Around this time, or a bit before, the gold will turn up. Of course, gold trade can be forbidden soon after that. Soon is in months/up to year as time accelerates in the end phase.
Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Oct 21, 2013 - 4:22pm (Reply to #3630)
redwood
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Great post Ivars.

Great post Ivars.yes

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