The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 7:30am
TREACHEROUS CRETINS
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Alessio

Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 8:21am TREACHEROUS CRETINS
foscotanner
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:-)

Interesting bounce in silver leading into crimex open.

the last two days on the 5 min chart it has bottomed after 1.15 bar. Today was 1.10 bar.

says to me that the buyers didnt want to wait........

Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 8:28am
It's a mystery
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Format question

I cannot download charts because the files have taken up all available space. I have tried everything to delete the files but to no avail. Anyone have a clue? TIA Delete button does not work I tried it on all three of my machines.

Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 8:33am foscotanner
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foscotanner

foscotanner wrote:

Interesting bounce in silver leading into crimex open.

the last two days on the 5 min chart it has bottomed after 1.15 bar. Today was 1.10 bar.

says to me that the buyers didnt want to wait........

Silver pulling gold up today. No doubt on this. Similar to the move earlier in the week when silver was at 20.6 and gold 1280's and silver closed above 21 and gold in 1280's.

The devils metal is pulling......

Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 10:50am It's a mystery
Rui
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What browser are you using?

IE, Firefox or Chrome? And what OS? I only know Windows.

Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 10:58am
It's a mystery
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Head and Shoulders in GDX

I see chatter about the last 3 months chart in GDX as a H&S. That is not a high probability pattern after basing for 6 months at the bottom of a massive downtrend.

Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 11:41am
redwood
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It's possible we may see a

It's possible we may see a spike in the metals soon.

Edit: the reason I mention it is that the dollar is on a precipice and silver is coiled ready to spring. It remains to be seen which way silver will go.

Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 4:25pm
T
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What GDX looks like now

On the daily chart, the bottom bollinger line is at 23.44 Thats a target.

and on the weekly chart the bottom bollinger line is 22.72. Thats a target.

The wave form GDX has been doing in the last 2 weeks is a bleeding down, and it looks like what wave 5 completions do sometimes.

I see no 'bottom basing' at all in GDX, not the last 6 months or last 3 years.

Its been one straight line collapse down in 2013. bottomed late June (so far) and bounced in July/august, and collapsed all the way back down now in sept/ and ongoing into october.

Thats not a bottom basing at all. If anything, its a dead cat bounce.

Those bollinger lines are the next down targets.

Big failure happened at the 26 level as I forecasted a few weeks ago.

But individual miners are not falling quite as fast. almost but not quite.

They all have targets as well. Funny games by market controllers can happen in october. these are strange days ,says experts like Jesse. Political ill winds .market fears. black swan fears. All these days feel like the calm before the next storm. The mining sector has collapsed already this year. How much farther down can it be taken.

After a 'bottom' was made in late June, and the rally happened July/august., the next question was ...... How far back down will the pull back go.

We are seeing the answer now. I think the pullback is still ongoing. targets lower are visible.

Good questions above.....If you had any dry powder left, would you buy anything here, or a bit lower? or wait for october to pass, or wait for spring 2014? or summer bottom 2014?

A flat , long stretching slide in this down zone for a whole year....that would be a real bottom basing.

I dont know what kind of Luck it would take, or extraordinary development in metals prices ,for the miners to make a big rally now for the rest of the year..... I really cant see that happening in these next 3 months to year end.

I expect a long slide in this down zone to hang like this for 9 months or more. If we were to see a rally now in gold .....it would get whacked hard at the 1525 area, and driven back down. and many months can drift along ,next year, just like its doing now. and while this happens, miners will stumble on down in these low zones like a tired old dog following his down trodden master.

Fri, Oct 4, 2013 - 9:42pm
Abraham Bernanke
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Miner to follow are?

Hi all,

A request please to put out there some of the miners (names - symbols) that people follow to help market timing on a metals rally, thanks.

Abe

SWAGER on. Silver - Wine - Art - Gold - Energy - Real estate
Sat, Oct 5, 2013 - 7:24am
redwood
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Hi Abe

I used to follow a bunch in the past but found that just following the HUI sufficed; GDX similarly. However SLW remains a good indicator as does Franco Nevada (FNV) as they are royalty companies strictly speaking.

I think we should be getting a good rally: ala AM's prognosis. The last 3 sessions have certainly helped to solidify it.; nice H&S forming. WS.

Sat, Oct 5, 2013 - 12:53pm argentus maximus
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God is money.

This may be the most important post to date on this thread.

Sat, Oct 5, 2013 - 1:01pm
eclectic
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The Elliot Wave Bearish Case For Gold

“It might take longer than you think.”…..quote from A.M.

It was A.M. who first posted a chart-- along with commentary-- of the 1998 bear market in gold. He obviously thought it significant to analyze that time period. The year 1998 encompasses what some Elliot analysts say was a final ‘C’ wave down to the final lows in 1999/2001. What I did was to evaluate the 1976 bear market and discovered there were striking similiarties of the ‘C’ wave during that year; down to the final low in August.

Both C waves for each bear market contained a total of eleven (11) waves before the final lows. Applying that same blueprint, there have been a total of ten (10) price ‘thrusts’ (up and down) to date for the current C wave in progress from 1796 recorded on 9/30/2012. Now, let’s look at the current price structure to discover possible Elliot wave counts and alternatives. I think there are at least three (3) possible scenerios regarding future price action. We are currently either:

  1. In the final wave 5 of C,
  2. In the final wave 5 of C which can take the form of an ending diagonal,
  3. In wave 3 of 5 of C.

Note, case (1.) calls for one more new price low and would meet the minimum requirement of a total of eleven (11) price thrusts. Case (2.)--the ending diagonal--calls for the completion of thirteen (13) price thrusts; or two more new lows. Finally, case (3.) also calls for the completion of thirteen (13) price thrusts—two more new lows—but at subsequently lower price levels.

If any of these bearish cases begin the pan out; I would then be looking for a point in the future where price meets time within a pre-defined time window for the final lows and the setup for the big trade. This time factor is the subject of another discussion.

Looking at the current news and macro fundamentals; some believe the final lows are already in place. Still it seems the more compelling the argument for being long gold—and the more bullish the news—prices keep declining; and the main trend remains down. This following article is a case in point.

https://www.kitco.com/ind/Saville/2013-10-01-Another-Nail-In-The-Coffin-Of-The-Deflation-Case.html

Prove me wrong Mr. Market: prove me wrong.

Sun, Oct 6, 2013 - 10:36am eclectic
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My apologies for.....

being too hasty and not proofreading. Should have read: Gold is money. Also, the comment was

poorly worded. I can't find the words at the moment, but A.M.'s post strikes at the heart of the matter

on why gold is important. The following link provides a better explanation. Cheers.

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/future-money-trends-why-gold-money-kin...

Sun, Oct 6, 2013 - 11:15am
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Nice post Eclectic!You

Nice post Eclectic!

You summarized (in elliott wave terms) three of the scenarios that I consider likely outcomes in the medium term.

The other two:

  • we bottomed and did wave 1 up, and are in wave 2 down to retest the low
  • an expanding pattern wave 2 decline from 2012 which may or may not be completed yet.

In all the cases - I mean where EW is concerned - I await more market action not really to confirm where we are which is asking too much, but hopefully to exclude one or more EW alternatives.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Oct 6, 2013 - 12:03pm argentus maximus
eclectic
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Coming from you sir....

I take that as a compliment. Regarding your first point on gold, the move up off the June lows look like a (5-3-5)

zig-zag correction; when broken down into the lower wave degree classification. But, this is hard to reconcile with

silver because wave 1 off the June lows look clearly impulsive. Maybe your wave 2 down to retest the low could

take the form of a failed (truncated) wave 5? As you say, time will tell; so let's see what happens.

Sun, Oct 6, 2013 - 2:50pm
ivars
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Now with debt ceiling

Now with debt ceiling appearing in Boehner language as "possible", would be very interesting to see if, how markets react, especially silver, and gold. Can give clue how seriously markets take default and what is the first direction they move to. Out of short term bonds-that has already happened-I read so far only of 2 month bonds. Do not know if these markets are big enough for money out of them to be looking elsewhere. If bonds get cheaper will pension funds be back buying them? What will they sell in turn?

I am still short silver since 21,85 which has not moved anywhere over last week.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Oct 6, 2013 - 4:57pm argentus maximus
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typo alert ..... that should

typo alert ..... that should have said: an expanding wave c decline from end 2012 ....

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Oct 6, 2013 - 8:05pm eclectic
redwood
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"God is money".....nice slip,

"God is money".....nice slip, I like it too and I'm not even religious.

Mon, Oct 7, 2013 - 7:58am
It's a mystery
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Curious Development

Notice that GDXJ is getting creamed pre-market?

The largest holding, inexplicably, is a new company called LionGold. Well LionGold was halted last week along with two other commodity companies and its shares promptly were smoked when it re-opened with the other two today.

It is VERY ODD that these companies were looking to make aggressive acquisitions and all of a sudden regulators came in and effectively destroyed their stocks by halting them on NO NEWS.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-04/sgx-suspends-blumont-liongold-asiasons-as-stocks-plunge.html

So there's more. LionGold wanted to buy Minera. IRL.TO for those that use stockcharts. Very promising junior being given away.

I smell a rat.

Mon, Oct 7, 2013 - 11:09am It's a mystery
BlackHawk
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Miner comment

@IaM - Here's a comment lifted from ZH that might be some news you haven't seen yet. It looks like it might be time to jump on some miners. I got lucky a couple a years ago on a pump and dump penny stock miner, the most profitable trade in my entire trading "career." Like a cargo cultists waiting for another box to drop from the sky, I am waiting for another miner to pay someday.

China is moving faster to diversify from US dollar holdings already:

McEwen Mining & TNR Gold: Las Bambas Copper Bidding From China Heats Up

“It is a good choice to invest in mining assets, which is a much better choice than investing in one government’s bonds – especially when this country cannot guarantee to pay even its own employees”

Gu Liangmin, head of copper at Minmetals.

The quote above can be the one of the year and you can spot the trend now. It is getting more interesting by the day: Mining.com reports that now third Chinese company has entered the bidding "Art of War" for "Glencore Xstrata's (LON:GLEN) much-coveted Las Bambas copper mine." Situation is getting more and more industry attention now and Lumina Copper closed yesterday at 4 month's high of CAD5.72. We are waiting when the market and analysts will pick up this story and translate Los Azules Copper project value for McEwen Mining and TNR Gold.
Update: Lumina Copper has printed CAD6.55 today - we hope to hear some good news from the company soon. https://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/mcewen-mining-tnr-gold-las-bambas.html#

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