Here would be a strange place to turn... IMHO if it were to turn it would have been 24.50 - 24.85. Past here I can see no logical turn points other then $26. Gold may help with a turn before then @1441 but more logically 1535. Syrian imputus to 26.19 and then "sell the fact" as it dawns it is not SHTF.
?? still not an easy situation to trade
"I think I will sit this one out though and wait for the right set up from a risk / reward ratio. This monster could turn any day and retrace significant amounts of the rally. I cannot see it because i think latecomers need to get onboard, but you never know....."
My understanding is that this rally is driven by short covering. The technical implication is that it will turn. I would imagine that the cartel will be motivated to cap them at $1500 and $26; old support becomes resistance (they'll make sure of it).
How far will it retrace? Damned if I know!
There is some evidence that Assad has fled to Tehran. That may quiet the Syrian crisis and gold could follow down, on the assumption this rise is in response to Syria.
I have sold more swing metal, selling into the upward spikes. (I know they are only spikes after it goes down! Until then they are upward trend! But we will see and I can be wrong.)
Gold swing trading allocation is now 100% cash.
I still have a very small amount of swing silver left at time of writing, but will soon sell that.
I intend to be out of the metals between 29-30 August and approx 12th September unless something changes my mind, and the most likely change would be some sort of capitulation that occurs and causes me to reduce the neutral posture from 2 weeks to one.
If I have it wrong it is possible that metals, especially silver will accellerate and rise vertically into 10th Sept, I have plenty of long term longs for such an outcome to be a pleasant surprise, but I don't like what I see for 2 weeks from now - that's why swing metal long positions are all sold.
Here comes the Moving Average Consolidation. We will most assuredly wait for the 50 day MA to close in on the 200 day MA. Once those two start compressing, I believe GDX launches out of the consolidation and the bull market in gold equities gets going. See the COMP playbook.
Having said that there was absolutely no reason for this sector to undergo the carnage it did in the first place. The rest of the market went vertical on multiple expansion while miners were crushed on multiple compression.
This time is truly different for a few reasons.
1) War will stoke a higher price in oil and will destroy all economies. Markets will not rally like the Iraq War. Go look at where oil was trading then and look now and remember wages are stagnant.
2) War will not solve any employment issues here or in Europe. This is not 1940 or 1970.
3) You so much as hint that the supply routes out of the Middle East are compromised and the world gets a whiff of $200 oil and you will see heads of state globally start to topple one after another. There will be way too many people with nothing to lose and that is very dangerous.
4) Russia gets pissed and shuts off gas to Europe. Well then we have an even bigger ctastrophe.
IMO and of course this is debatable, these wars are fought as a distraction for the abject failure of the money masters desire to keep the interest game going. Think about this for a minute. Is there a better business in the world than creating money out of nothing and charging people to use it? Of course there isn't. That is why these psychopaths do everything in their power to keep the game going.
Governments cannot issue debt and expect to survive. We need a group of politicians that understand this simple concept and end this insane violence. These banksters are truly the scourge of the earth.
When the money runs out, and when their personal lifestyle becomes threatened, the politicians will blame the bankers and take them down. Not a day before.
Until then, the politicians and bankers will remain partners where their dislike of the other side is outweighed by various benefits provided.
Until then, everyone below those high floors of the ivory tower gets thrown in front of the runaway train to slow it down.
On another tack, how about this interesting one liner from Lloyd Blankfein - from a Trunews interview with David McAlvany 29 July:
If not listening to the full interview, jump to 15:00
argentus maximus wrote: On another tack, how about this interesting one liner from Lloyd Blankfein - from a Trunews interview with David McAlvany 29 July:
If not listening to the full interview, jump to 15:00
Only one interesting liner? I heard many pearls of wisdom in this interview with very honest intentions.
Thank you for sharing your sources with all of us argentus. Your work is truly appreciated here.
A very true statement by 10th wonder: 'Argentus your work is appreciated'
Especially by anyone who dabbled or stayed in the market for the spike up starting last friday, who then exited around your top that you called.......
I remember asking you for the resistance levels in gold. 1425 - check. It stopped gold in its tracks....
So with Gold at 1409 and silver at 24.04 can you offer any support levels when you think this thing may cease to drop. Or is it more simple and its a case of waiting for time...... I think thats the normal two scenarios - a quick drop in price or a slow drop to erode time?
Anyone notice the u-turns that Armstrong is making at the moment.
About a week ago he produces his gold daily arrays. Yesterday some totally different ones.
Earlier in week he says Dow to plunge next week as turned down, now he is saying it needs to close below a level to plunge and may not after all.
Having read Armstrong for years including all of his scribblings from a prison cell, I cannot help but feel but find this thread refreshing.
I love the clear straight forward views and analysis that gets put forward. Argentus gives clear answers, clear dates of when things will happen. When he isnt sure he states it. Such as at present - he is out of swing awaiting direction. Only its a clear message rather than Marty who gives a vague message that may be misinterpreted.
I miss Ilya on this thread. He was very clear in his views!
Enough with the EW is crystal clear.
Its a mystery makes clear points.
There are many others, need I go on.......
The RnP subscribers got that rally in hourly and it worked out extremely well.
About hourly charts in "setup":
Although the first month included short term commentary, several weeks after starting this thread I decided not to continue with pro bono intraday work. I have a limited amount of time/labour and due to the nature of the work I happened to have a good idea how long this thread will last.
I really don't think that people deserve good material for no cost, but I'm willing to gift a little and see what returns. It is a great way to find good people. So every day I bring some thing of interest here and leave it for strangers to take. I also wonder how many of the 1000+ readers here every day think that what I post here free was my best work! That would be an incorrect assumption!
The good people appreciate what I have done and they step forward. Over the last six months I have received a very large amount of PMs from people I don't know except via this website. They have avoided trouble or gotten out of it, or avoided selling out at bottoms, using my work and told me this and thanked me. The sheer volume of PMs is surprising and quite uplifting and helps to motivate me keep the thread going as the days and weeks pass. It is interesting to report that a large number of RnP subscribers started by saying "Thanks" to me for "setup thread". That's pure nice people in action and such people are a pleasure to deal with. The very best traders I know seem to have a more humble life manner than average folks. It is not likely to be a coincidence.
Starting this week I will try to do:
A post every week about trading philosophy, psychology, or "attitude". The link between trading and zen is strong.
A post a week recommending a trading or market related book, or a books, or course, with a review by me stating the specific reasons I think it's worth getting and reading. Most of the books I will recommend will be ones that I have read more than 3 and maybe well over 5 times. There is great knowledge available provided one knows where to look for it, and over a couple of weeks I will build up a library list for anyone who wants to use it.
Some of the trading books will (at first) be apparently nothing to do with trading, but when you "get it" you will realize they are everything to do with trading!
I hope this will turn out to be an interesting extra for regular readers here.
All still alive.........
1. triangle leg for P4 C1 ending 1600-1620
2. major wave 2 of P5 C1 ending 1610-1620
3. still in major 1 down of cycle 2 to mid/high 1500's
could take us as high as 1660 in SPX but 1650 more likely.
The plunge should start next week.
Gold and silver are just subject to the open interest from Tuesday. OPEX hangover.
For the P4 Triangle there should be another wave down from the 1648-1653 level that tags just above 1600 but the low for this leg could have been in at 1627 as well as for the wave 2 bottom bull var.
There is no magic # for the bear case as far as retracement, only 1709 which of course kills it.....
"but I'm willing to gift a little" - wow argentus, that has to be the understatement of the year. Your generosity cannot be thanked enough. Really.
Like the action in the PM miners – today (29Aug), GDX (as a proxy) looks to be defining a 2nd higher low since June lows but still cautious given AM’s 30Aug to 12Sep flagged inflection zone … if a strong close today, the miners could extend thus will likely add some front-month call exposure in a select few depending on the close…
Speaking of investor psychology, great recent interview with Howard Marks worthwhile when time permits (unable to locate link) … back to catching the final rays of Summer.
I think vision can be too uncertain/risky to decide directions by looking at metals and miners on the Daily charts.... better vision is shown in weekly charts. or a combination of both, and weekly makes timing cycles more clear as well.
daily price points dont hold.... weekly charts show a better 'zone'
seeing the targets as within a zone is better than a single price point.
The current price action is floating and bobbing around the top zone.... for gold top/resistance is here around 1425.(1434 top) and the zone is 1400-1440, price can plunge to 1400 and rally to 1430 and zig zag....daily, but thats just a bunch of whipsaws. Stepping back,stepping aside during this time, when the top area is reached...is a good achievement of this rally off the June bottom. The next play is to wait for the pull back. there is a target Zone.... it looks to me like 1300-1330 area, maybe 1350, but needs to be watched first.
In a range, between 1234 and 1434 , 1334 is in the middle. 1350 is a support point. 1300 is a magnet point.
From the 2- year long down- trend channel.... the entry into the channel zone is here between 1350 and 1440 area forecasting choppy waters and whipsaws,and downward pressure. especially for a first rally off the June bottom to exhaust here. the potential is looking for a pullback down now, and IF support holds at the pullbacks completion, the next wave UP could target 1500 area (1470-1525)
There ought to be enough force coiled up for sellers to attack from this current 'top' zone. ..... at any time...... and so the down side target becomes more important now than the upside. 1325 is more important than 1525.
From a daily/intraday price action vision..... folks will try to say that 1400 needs to hold. like 1400 is the almighty price point. Thats the error of nearsighted vision. watch 1400 not hold. watch the price plunge thru 1400 like its nothing. back and forth.
The next 'bottom' buy zone area ( for looking to buy the dip) zone , in my view would be between 1350-1300 area. not looking for 1400 to hold but 1300 to hold.
Current price action is revealing little except zig zags.
Miners are pulling back now. a downwave I expect to see ongoing for the next 2 weeks.
GDX has 2 targets now. 34 top and 24 'bottom'
I expect at least a retest to 26 where the 50 MA is . but 24 would be my target to see whats on sale.
I am sure that I have seen the 30th as a key date somewhere.
Is it interesting that we have metals falling to some very interesting support today?