The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 1:15am ENOUGH
10th Wonder
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Thanks ENOUGH!

Great work ENOUGH...THANKS!!!

I've been following a handful of reputable cyclists in the blogosphere with regards to timing and THE equities top/double-top. AM's SPX July warning was certainly good confirmation, but your alternative counts added the color I needed. Thanks!

10th W
Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 8:40am
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Daily chart of gold with

Daily chart of gold with technical support & resistance levels:

:

The location of where I typed the dates on this chart is not to be taken as a forecast of a high or low at that date, it's just hopw it seems to be shaping up looking from today. For instance it could decide to breakout instead of reversing. I will trade the following price bar's direction.

There is a nice area between the 50day moving average and the just broken trendline which would seem to provide a nice resting place.

The dates are not of equal importance. End of July is very important and will overflow across many global markets.

A human conflict/anger cycle is running at a peak for the next 2 weeks, with mini peaks laid on top of that for added effect. Peaks I detect are 22-23 July, and 11-13 August, but it's consistently very high, making this a good month for warmongers, corporate takeovers at the personal level, and leadership or political change. News could be distracting for a while.

If the end of July is significant, then shocks are coming, the sort of corporate failures, deaths, etc which wake the markets up to a need to revalue their assets again. Check that position stops are appropriate.

On another matter I checked my records. I give my trades without quantity but relative percentages don't tell all. The overall exposure I have to both swing and long term metal (as opposed to other asset classes) is increased over the past few months. So if I am 100% long now, that's more than the position if I was long 100% in March last. I though it might be interesting to mention.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 10:59am
foscotanner
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holding......

metals holding okay today.

personally would like a spike up that i see that i can trade so that i can free up some money to subscribe to argentus site. things seem to be a bit stuck so am really hopeful that we do not roll over of just hold here but press on a little. fingers and toes are crossed.......

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 11:01am
Lamenting Laverne
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@ Argentus

Again a heartily thank you for the great posts!

I have a couple of questions for you.

1) At the Sunday open until a few hours ago, the Sunday had its own candle in the daily chart for Silver. Then it suddenly merged with the Monday candle a few hours ago, which produced quite a big gap at the bottom of the Monday candle on the Netdania chart (No gap emerged in my trading platform). Prior to the merge, no gap had been visible on the daily, and only a small one on the 1 minute, which there are all the time. Do you think this daily candle gap must be closed - or is it a technical glitch? Maybe something you have seen before, having looked at charts so long?

2) If this is a real McBottom pattern a la 1. June 2012 - or TrippleV pattern, as I have called it in my head so far - one characteristic is that it must retrace in a downspike to somewhere between the third V low and second V low, before rapidly going north again to finish the day on the higher side, before a new day candle is created at midnight. Clearly today is breakout day from the Tripple V. Do you still expect to see the flash spike down today? If so, would you agree that it is possible it will hit somewhere between 19,1305 and 18,9870 kamikaze style?

I ask because, amusingly, every time the red-paint guys have painted that nice little pouch that often precedes the raids, the guys with the blue paint throws a quick splat at the pattern, and the red guys have to start over. Is today going to be different, I wonder ;-)

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 12:24pm
foscotanner
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@AM

Are you going to reduce swing longs today / tomorrow or are you thinking of holding?

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 12:33pm
RunRunRun
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stick or twist

earlier messages from AM suggested that 1350 around 25 July was a reasonable target, so I'm assuming AM is sticking for a little longer.

of course, one of AM's recent predictions (blue line?) shows gold increasing in value all the way to 7 Aug, so selling now or at 1350 could be costly.

personally I aim to sell swing longs around 1350 anyhow, assuming we get there. but given the 'either-or' nature of things I will probably hold off from going short until the next direction is more clear.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 1:05pm
thatguy007
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Are we on the cust

Gold is on the edge (50DMA and trend line AM has put forward)

And Ag is near

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 1:12pm
Cononish1314
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"On the cust"?? Shome

"On the cust"??

Shome mishtake surely, 007.

But I was picking my bottom a couple of weeks ago and now feel quite pleased. Unless the Bullion Powers engage in an even cruder activity. But even then...

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 1:25pm
It's a mystery
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gold cleared a thin

zone at 1337 and rallied another $2. That is odd. It really never does that on moves like this. Something different is worth mentioning and watching.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 1:27pm
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Stick or twist ... I like

Stick or twist ... I like that!

Silver is performing stronger today than gold. I just sold some swing silver to capture a chunk of swing profits.

I'm holding long term longs.

Gold we are entering strong resistance. Debating what to do about that.

A couple of points here: It's hard to sit and watch when it rises after a period of falling prices. However in a bull overhead resistance will fail and under support will magically be found to hold - remember those days?

We have enough upside momentum that I think another attack on highs will be mounted in a couple of days, maybe 24-25th ... got to wait and see, maybe again on end of July.

Some silver swing longs taken off the table.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 2:14pm
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Gold has already hit targets,

Gold has already hit targets, so selling is here.

Other targets are shown in the chart:

I like the one coming from the apex of the April - June trading triangle formation, which just happens to be bisected by the 50 day moving average last week, but gold gets to choose, not me.

There are some really out of the park hits visible on the chart, I am not thinking I'll get to hit one of those this week, but it sure would be nice.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 2:38pm
redwood
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Don't know how much of a sell

Don't know how much of a sell off there will be today. At this time of day going into 3 pm there is usually a substantial selloff. Not today. I think this squeeze is on for real and should go much higher tomorrow. we'll see.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 3:03pm
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There is no reason for gold

There is no reason for gold to sell off in a downwards crashing waterfall movement. The waterfalls are pointing upwards now, but we are just after a major low so there will be matching contra movement until gold moves sideways out or up and out of the declining trendlines.

If it gets very high that would trigger a sharp pullback.

For now, it is arriving into the still undefined upper area of some trading range also to be defined, so buying and selling will be curtailed for a while while it explores it's new confining levels and discovers at which levels the volume is forthcoming.

I think it will likely pause and consolidate and absorb selling pressure, possibly soon trending down in the short term to confirm where the medium term low is now located.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 3:17pm
Lamenting Laverne
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I misunderstood

Re sharp one-day spike down/fake lower break/selloff. I think I just misunderstood where we were in the process. I will re-read older posts again to make sure I understand better, where we are. I have had a less thorough reading patch in the sequence, so I have probably missed something vital.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 3:38pm
Byzantium
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Stick or Twist

The fear of a sudden spike upwards, may prompt the cartel to force a sudden spike downwards.

Its a casino at this moment in time.

But with some dry powder already to hand as a fallback, and in light of weeks of negative official GOFO (which is so rare as to be extremely noteworthy!), I'm not selling this particular rally.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:05pm
Byzantium
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but as an aside...

Price action has been difficult to call, and GSR is not at my trigger points.

But currencies have been bobbing against each other a lot recently, in a defined range. I sold for pounds and bought back with Euro, when the pound was recently weak against the Euro (1.15), to reverse later if GBP:EUR gets back to the recent cross of 1.17.

Today the dollar was weak, so I bought the dollar the same way.

I am using Euro strength while it is there. These three currencies have been behaving longtime, like they are kept in a tight range. As each takes its turn being the weak or strong one, it is normal to exploit that game, no?

To be blunt; Eur, $, £, silver and gold, they are all effectively FX. Buy the weak while it is cheap, sell when strong, rinse, repeat. Metal remains neutral at indeterminate times like this, but the currency composition of the dry powder changes.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:23pm
GoldMania3000
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Q3 2013

I belive AM indicated that quater 3 would be a turning point for gold and when we look back in 2014 we would realize this. Not the same words as AM but it's something he indicated a little while ago. We are in a major tunring point. Many people are disgusted. I bought some today, but not a lot, will buy on pull backs and look to the heavens for approval

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:23pm
Salisbury House
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JP Morgan et all have less

JP Morgan et all have less than one ton of gold left each to dump into the market. There's very few bullets left for any sustained beat down in price now. The 1350 area should get slightly breached tonight, then a pullback to 1310 - 15. Gold will have a 1400 handle by Friday - Monday (next)

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:24pm
ENOUGH
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FURTHER REFINEMENT S&P

The alternate count is that wave (5) of minor 5 is playing out and an ending diagonal that must complete below 1700.57, in order that minor 3 not be the shortest wave. A move above 1700.57 will invalidate the alternate and confirm the primary.

A move below 1684.08 and then below 1671.84 will invalidate the primary count and confirm the alternate.....

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:42pm
foscotanner
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Ilya & miners

If Ilya was to post - i suspect he would say higher into 25th, pull back, then sharp higher to Aug 10th or so.

the miners i watch are indicating to me they want a bit more upside before they retrace. They are saying another day like today or a couple of smaller up ones.

looking at hui - it looks to me as if it wants to go up 10% more, then have a pull back. then we will have a nice IHS.

If hui follows trend on miners i follow, it goes down tomorrow, up, then down to retest 50dma a couple of times and then boom.

Gold hasnt really sorted 50dma.

I have not got a clue what will happen tomorrow. If I was a crook such as JPM, I would want to squeeze the shorts a bit more before a smack down. I mean, you would want to take the shorts off the hedge funds hands at higher prices wouldnt you. then you get some downside momentum for a couple of days and give them back at a lower price. Just a thought.