The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 2:14pm
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Gold has already hit targets,

Gold has already hit targets, so selling is here.

Other targets are shown in the chart:

I like the one coming from the apex of the April - June trading triangle formation, which just happens to be bisected by the 50 day moving average last week, but gold gets to choose, not me.

There are some really out of the park hits visible on the chart, I am not thinking I'll get to hit one of those this week, but it sure would be nice.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 2:38pm
redwood
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Don't know how much of a sell

Don't know how much of a sell off there will be today. At this time of day going into 3 pm there is usually a substantial selloff. Not today. I think this squeeze is on for real and should go much higher tomorrow. we'll see.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 3:03pm
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There is no reason for gold

There is no reason for gold to sell off in a downwards crashing waterfall movement. The waterfalls are pointing upwards now, but we are just after a major low so there will be matching contra movement until gold moves sideways out or up and out of the declining trendlines.

If it gets very high that would trigger a sharp pullback.

For now, it is arriving into the still undefined upper area of some trading range also to be defined, so buying and selling will be curtailed for a while while it explores it's new confining levels and discovers at which levels the volume is forthcoming.

I think it will likely pause and consolidate and absorb selling pressure, possibly soon trending down in the short term to confirm where the medium term low is now located.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 3:17pm
Lamenting Laverne
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I misunderstood

Re sharp one-day spike down/fake lower break/selloff. I think I just misunderstood where we were in the process. I will re-read older posts again to make sure I understand better, where we are. I have had a less thorough reading patch in the sequence, so I have probably missed something vital.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 3:38pm
Byzantium
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Stick or Twist

The fear of a sudden spike upwards, may prompt the cartel to force a sudden spike downwards.

Its a casino at this moment in time.

But with some dry powder already to hand as a fallback, and in light of weeks of negative official GOFO (which is so rare as to be extremely noteworthy!), I'm not selling this particular rally.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:05pm
Byzantium
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but as an aside...

Price action has been difficult to call, and GSR is not at my trigger points.

But currencies have been bobbing against each other a lot recently, in a defined range. I sold for pounds and bought back with Euro, when the pound was recently weak against the Euro (1.15), to reverse later if GBP:EUR gets back to the recent cross of 1.17.

Today the dollar was weak, so I bought the dollar the same way.

I am using Euro strength while it is there. These three currencies have been behaving longtime, like they are kept in a tight range. As each takes its turn being the weak or strong one, it is normal to exploit that game, no?

To be blunt; Eur, $, £, silver and gold, they are all effectively FX. Buy the weak while it is cheap, sell when strong, rinse, repeat. Metal remains neutral at indeterminate times like this, but the currency composition of the dry powder changes.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:23pm
GoldMania3000
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Q3 2013

I belive AM indicated that quater 3 would be a turning point for gold and when we look back in 2014 we would realize this. Not the same words as AM but it's something he indicated a little while ago. We are in a major tunring point. Many people are disgusted. I bought some today, but not a lot, will buy on pull backs and look to the heavens for approval

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:23pm
Salisbury House
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JP Morgan et all have less

JP Morgan et all have less than one ton of gold left each to dump into the market. There's very few bullets left for any sustained beat down in price now. The 1350 area should get slightly breached tonight, then a pullback to 1310 - 15. Gold will have a 1400 handle by Friday - Monday (next)

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:24pm
ENOUGH
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FURTHER REFINEMENT S&P

The alternate count is that wave (5) of minor 5 is playing out and an ending diagonal that must complete below 1700.57, in order that minor 3 not be the shortest wave. A move above 1700.57 will invalidate the alternate and confirm the primary.

A move below 1684.08 and then below 1671.84 will invalidate the primary count and confirm the alternate.....

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:42pm
foscotanner
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Ilya & miners

If Ilya was to post - i suspect he would say higher into 25th, pull back, then sharp higher to Aug 10th or so.

the miners i watch are indicating to me they want a bit more upside before they retrace. They are saying another day like today or a couple of smaller up ones.

looking at hui - it looks to me as if it wants to go up 10% more, then have a pull back. then we will have a nice IHS.

If hui follows trend on miners i follow, it goes down tomorrow, up, then down to retest 50dma a couple of times and then boom.

Gold hasnt really sorted 50dma.

I have not got a clue what will happen tomorrow. If I was a crook such as JPM, I would want to squeeze the shorts a bit more before a smack down. I mean, you would want to take the shorts off the hedge funds hands at higher prices wouldnt you. then you get some downside momentum for a couple of days and give them back at a lower price. Just a thought.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 4:44pm
redwood
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The HUI is taking off in the

The HUI is taking off in the last few minutes of trading. More often than not that portends higher prices the next day.

Edit: as expected metal prices are higher after close. This might not last into tomorrow's open so we shall see. The most important is what happens at week's end, so, so far so good.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 7:47pm (Reply to #2494)
eclectic
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AM if you are correct;

AM if you are correct; then the scenerio I outlined in post #2435 is not possible. Today's upthrust

in price met the minimum expectation that would fit the analog bottoms in 1999 and 2001. That is to say

prices rallied for a minimum of 15 trading days (3/wks in Dow Theory terms). Subseqent to those rallies;

in 1999 gold retraced it's entire upmove in six (6) trading days to test the bottom; and in 2001 gold retraced it's entire

upmove in fifteen (15) trading days to test the bottom. The idea that a downward waterfall in prices

is not going to happen; lends credence to your using a mix of using chaos, fundamental circumstances and

sentiment for a complete understanding of price behavior. Looks like I'm back to the drawing board. (:-)

Until later.

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 8:57pm (Reply to #2501)
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There is a wonderful aid to

There is a wonderful aid to forecasting that all these fancy requests deny the use of, but I will use it. It is to wait until we get there, and observe , and then do as is required.

I do this all the time while driving and it works very well, even though I might have a roadmap showing the turns and so on, my map just never shows the other cars. So I wait until they are visible. Then I drive around those too. I recommend driving that way, and it works for trading too!

Everybody is all tense because it's going up for a change. Chill and watch and see how many pivots it goes for. It'll stop going up soon enough! You can trust me on that.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 10:54pm
Beastly Stack
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Gold Looking Great

It has been a while, don't try being smarter than the market!

https://tradermartinstake.blogspot.com/2013/07/gold-back-in-vogue.html

Mon, Jul 22, 2013 - 10:54pm
Beastly Stack
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Gold Looking Great

It has been a while, don't try being smarter than the market!

https://tradermartinstake.blogspot.com/2013/07/gold-back-in-vogue.html

Tue, Jul 23, 2013 - 6:04am
GoldMania3000
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Some stiumulus to stiumulate the mind

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/07/22/china-working-...

So Jim rickards indicates that china has/or close to 5,000 tones of gold. more then he expected and that a potentialy annoucment of this will occur in april 2014. I throw this out there for the reason of timing only as there's been some talk on this board about 2014 as a movement higher. Is this one of many catalyst that could send us higher.

the other thing that i find interesting is his remark about pivoting out of gold due to taxes. This is something one should be looking at as there's been much talk on the blogs about holding gold as it moves into the system. it appears to me we don't know and as long as we have this system in place one must consider taking their proftis if in fact we see a spike on gold up to $4000

Tue, Jul 23, 2013 - 6:18am
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Three rising lows is not a

Three rising lows is not a good thing to short, and a breakout would have to be taken seriously.

Right now spot silver is up against overhead resistance and has stopped rising for a bit as it receives selling from late bears following their so far profitable trendlines and moving averages.

In response to this, silver slipped back to the previous highs at 20.22 and is absorbing selling for now.

Underneath lies short term support at 20, and stronger at 19.50, after that 18.75, and so on. Support is short term, stops are required.

So if it doesn't takeoff right away, a pullback would seem appropriate. About 2 1/2 - 3 days. That sets up a retest upwards, then a move to lows about the 25th, and then we judge by where those lows are at as to what may follow.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jul 23, 2013 - 6:25am
donnaf
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This on China

https://winteractionables.com/?p=4676

So does this article point to where all of JPM's gold has gone? I see other articles about JPM being down to a tonne, but not so much about where it is. Is it gone to those who stood for delivery or withdrawals by those who no longer trust JPM w/ their gold?

Seriously @Jakarta Expat, it is not this...

"JPM was delivered an inferior and possibly Islamic terrorist tampered products of gold and silver that have Spontaneously Self-Combustible on it...Jamie Dimon has already inquired at the FED and the POTUS as to whether JPM qualifies for a FED backed full reimbursement for the inferior gold and silver products that have disappeared in to smoke..."

Donna
Tue, Jul 23, 2013 - 7:40am
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Weekly SLV ETF update

We are due an update of the silver weekly forecast chart.

This ties together some dates recently mentioned.

Note that some lows come in close proximity to highs

The more robust forecast line (blue line in lower chart) is performing very well, and seems to have the edge for accuracy over the more responsive forecast (light grey line upper chart) at the moment.

The kink in the grey line at 13th August is interesting because if there is to be an inversion where scenarios flip into a bearish silver outlook for some reason, that would be a suitable time for it to occur.

Weekly trendlines are shown in the lower chart. Silver has to get out from under those before bullish scenarios will play.

The upper chart has a pink line denoting a combination of cycles, but look at the three 2011 highs which were associated with this. The lows can be equally fragmented, or come as one, it's a general trend indicator of where the trading range is and is not suggesting a nice sine wave cycle exists. However, it's interesting to note the lateness of the early 2012 high within this cycle's high window, and then notice that the 31 Dec and 14 Jan forecasted lows (both charts) are at an approximate late stage within the expected cycle's low window.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jul 23, 2013 - 8:21am (Reply to #2504)
Ilya Repin
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errrrmm

Definition, Forecast

verb (used with object)

1. to predict (a future condition or occurrence); calculate in advance: to forecast a heavy snowfall; to forecast lower interest rates. 2. to serve as a prediction of; foreshadow. 3. to contrive or plan beforehand; prearrange. verb (used without object) 4. to conjecture beforehand; make a prediction. 5. to plan or arrange beforehand.
argentus maximus wrote:

There is a wonderful aid to forecasting that all these fancy requests deny the use of, but I will use it. It is to wait until we get there, and observe , and then do as is required.

sorry but LOL thats funny..

this is not mischief on my part but a valid critique. Professional Forecasters do indeed satisfy "fancy requests" with forecasts

randomness