The setup for the big trade

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Sun, Jun 30, 2013 - 6:56pm
GoldMania3000
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ILYA

just stay and pretend you are on www.ILYA.com - youve helped people so why go? I hate the United states government but i don't leave the US. I don't like my job and disagree with my boss but I don't leave. I don't like half the people in my neighborhood but i stay.

Sun, Jun 30, 2013 - 7:16pm Ilya Repin
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Alas another last before you

Alas another last before you go.....

I've been intrigued by your style of learning, much like AM I suspect, in decoding the patterns of the market. You don't read others' work as you've said because it hampers a certain ability, I suspect, to synthesize many important ideas/ techniques.

This approach does capture the ability of many on this forum, hence their draw to this community. Formulaic thinking is beneficial but can be highly restrictive simultaneously. Thank you for your generosity of spirit and generosity of mind, all offered with decorum and enthusiasm. No, no the best to you sir.

Sun, Jun 30, 2013 - 7:45pm
thatguy007
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a nice trip down to $1220Au till 4th jul

a nice trip down to $1220Au till 4th jul would make for a nice inverse head and shoulders with a neckline @ $1243. I always get nervous about technical setups in gold as the are usually traps in my book :|

Sun, Jun 30, 2013 - 7:46pm
Ilya Repin
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Not sure if its like AMs you

@Redwood Not sure if its like AMs you will have to ask him. I haven't read any books on TA or markets at all, ever. And its more than likely that AM has as he is very familiar with EW and Gann and such.. i know nothing more than a sentence about either.

I know Plan A is going very well though.. 2056 and 2114

take note of the price targets and dates. Copper will be the last peice of this puzzle.

no more questions to me now on here please. only mentions of me should be in relation to Plan A and B laid out about two weeks ago.

au revoir

@GM3000. Sorry friend but as i said.. i want to get back to trading full time and i cant stomach generating views for TF so he can allow his standards to plummet even further.. Its his site and he should do the work in keeping it relevant and valuable. Not me. (surprised i haven't been moderated yet LOL i am trying in the politest way i can)

I suggest all here depart and do there own research.. do your own analysis.. You don't need "gurus" especially self proclaimed ones... What do they know that you are not capable of learning?

My philosophy is The more people do for themselves the richer they will be, spiritually and financially. and so i am actually stopping people doing that by providing answers.. rather than questions.

@thatguy Wouldn't buy (paper) here, it may be too late.. i would wait for a good dip



Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 12:20am
indosil
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@Ilya

Seems like you sure are being flooded with mails.Mine certainly got lost among them

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 12:41am Ilya Repin
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Have you checked out QUAD G's

Have you checked out QUAD G's thread on the KITCO forum? That is a great place for you I think.. lots of others that are really great there as well.. I think it's the best PM and broad market thread on the internet.

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=41880&page=2908

Ilya Repin wrote:

So many PMs cant respond to them all so will be lazy and put email here

ilyarepin @ ymail dot com

if i get as many emails as i have PMs then late replies will be common. Also i will be away from 4 July Until August.

thanks all :)

@donna if you were to make 2 GSR trades this year June would be one. and October the other (i think)

@Byz Big money shorts who are well in the money will not be threatened here really and wouldnt start covering until over 1275-1325 IMO.. that could happen straight away but don't be surprised if after a flash crash covering rally they double down with leveraged profits. we get stuffed down to the lows again before this is over.

end of the day the trend is down in a big way. they are well in the money short from 35 and 1800. the are not worried. Cover and reshort from higher up.. just like any onther trade.

we will see but ether way a bottom is being built IMO

ok now im really going

To each his reach
Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 10:32am
It's a mystery
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Market Anthropology

has done a piece on the metals that I found worthwhile (analogs). In case you missed a PEI comment, bonds appear finished globally for many years.

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 11:40am
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Weekly SLV Fib Counts for Q3 2013 buying & selling points

I did some work on weekly SLV over the weekend using fibonacci counts.

They vary a lot, hit and miss, but as with fib the hits are impressive. The misses? Well that's what stops are for!

Here are some of the better ones, with the next fib date shown.

The dates from these three fibs match reasonably well with output from other methods. So I will not be surprised to later find significant silver buying and selling points manage to fall within the weeks pinpointed by these fibs.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 11:48am
It's a mystery
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DUST

Very active call buyer DUST 145 for August.

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 12:50pm Rui
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Rui wrote: Many people like

Rui wrote:

Many people like to cite the price peak in 1980 where silver hits 50 and gold 800 to prove that silver is guaranteed to outperform once the bullish trend returns, and GSR is guaranteed to be 1 : 16 again. That's not a convincing argument.

If you look at the price chart in 1980. Silver managed to stay at 50 level for about ONE DAY. Silver was in a bull market for most part of the 70's decade. If it only reached there for ONE DAY during ONE DECADE then it's as good as it never reached there. You need a window much longer than ONE DAY to take profit.

Gold on the other hand stayed above 800 much longer in 1980. A few months probably. It still fell down hard eventually but it gave people a much bigger window for exit. This is not to say GSR will not be 1 : 16 again or silver is guaranteed to be high only for a short while but we need to cover every historical detail so that we don't just take anything for granted.

Absolutely!

It is a good idea to look at the tops of course. But it is safer to look at the consolidations prior to the tops. they involved volume and trading activity, and are much more reflective of significant price levels that a one day spike can ever do.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 1:12pm
redwood
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IAM

Want to thank you for enriching this forum. Informative and on target your posts broaden the scope necessary for reading the metals market.

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 2:18pm
It's a mystery
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Ok here's a tip on professional traders

Upside call volatility in options on gold futures is getting hit very hard. That signifies sellers of upside calls, so market makers lower volatility. This is very often a sign that a reversal in the market is close (1275?).

I am simply putting it out there for educational purposes.

If the puts get killed along with then expect a trading range for a bit.

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 2:24pm
indosil
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@IAM

Excuse my naivety....but where exactly can i find this Volatility Index/data for Gold or Silver?

Also i didn't really get hold/understand your comment on Volatilty ......can u elaborate a little??

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 4:30pm
It's a mystery
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Hmmm

well I guess it depends on what trading service you use. Options like stocks have a volatility reading whenever they are trading.

August 1250 calls on gold futures have a 26 vol right now. So, if you simply watch what vol is today versus yesterday's, which many services have you get a feel for what "paper" is doing in the marketplace.

Volatility in GLD dropped two points today, which means paper saw selling of options, so lowered their values.

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 6:13pm
Byzantium
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The Set Up for the Big Trade?

Though I love this thread, the title of the thread sells it short in one respect, in that it implies a singular event, a particular trade of all trades that approaches, and for which we must prepare (by implication, identifying the ultimate lows).

I do not believe that Argentus actually meant this (and he can clarify that for himself), because he asked me to repost to this thread, a post that I had made on Main Street, as being a close proximation as to the actual purpose of this thread as he intended it. Indeed, the 'Spirit of the Big Trade' is a an ongoing approach to the market, which will capture any such 'Big Trades' by default.

So, duly reposted as requested.

=================================================

Stacking

=================================================

Prompted by Spartacus' question, here is my own experience of and strategy around these price cascades; it might interest some.

The stack is the core position, aka 'insurance.'

Like others I also trade; Argentus calls it the 'swing portion.' For me, I allocated half to core and half to swing. My focus is on the swing portion; I want the best return on that that I can get. That part is not insurance, it is an investment. Critically, I am not a helpless observer, volatility is my friend. Though these low prices are painful in one sense, in another they have been a stupendous opportunity to lower my average cost per ounce, and increase the ounces in the swing portion based on my original investment. This will pay back big time if we get back to earlier more agreeable prices, and is reducing my losses in the meantime.

Using $1550 and 26.50 as start points, being the pre-April cascade level, we are currently down about 20% in gold, and about 26% in silver. My own losses are half of that, as I am reducing my cost per ounce continually through trading (selling into rallies or prior to or during dips, buying back on dips or lower dips). Wherever price takes us, so long as it continues to bounce around and not flat-line, then the task of reducing that cost per ounce is ongoing and relentless opportunity to be seized. At some point, I expect to reduce it to even these low levels. I am not so smart to always know at what point to act, but I follow the writings of those who do ;-)

If at any time we return to $1550 and $26.50, I will have far more ounces for my original stake than I had before, and I do not need a return to those price levels to get back to my original financial position, because of that reducing dollar cost average.

If the prices remain low, I expect to eventually to reduce my cost average down to that level, and then keep going so that I am ultimately in profit again.

Nobody likes being underwater, but necessity is the mother of invention, and it has brought out the trader in me. I never traded before. We previously enjoyed a secular bull and that was great. This deep correction has forced me to adapt in turn and become more active. If and when we return to the bull phase, I expect the trading strategies that I have learned, to be just as effective in the that phase also; I will be trading now for good.

To sum up, I am up the creek as many of us are, but I do have a paddle, and I am paddling furiously. I do expect to reach shore, and am finding the experience both enriching, and an education. There are some very smart people in TFMR to learn from for trading, including Argentus and his peers on his own thread, and also on Pailin's corner.

Well, there's my 2 cents. I thank Turd, his website and the community here, for this and so many other things.

============================================================

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 7:19pm
Byzantium
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Just to add to my previous post

I am a hard core PM bull, in that I believe in the intrinsic value of PMs as the most superior and lasting form of money.

My core stack is insurance against fiat money collapse.

HOWEVER, the swing portion requires a different mindset; it requires acceptance that the market, and the cartel, are powerful, and that the dollar system has a huge inertia that cannot lightly be discounted. In particular, because the core stack is predicated on bullish conviction, the swing portion is to cover the other scenario, being the scenario in which the dollar system has more left in it than we might expect. It is difficult to lose money being short the metals so long as the dollar system survives, and this may go on for a long time yet. Once it collapses, that is what the core position is for!

So, an easy and unhesitating disposition to sell half the swing portion when an intermediate top is detected, characterizes the mindset needed for trading. Optimism and fundamentals are total handicaps for trading.

Trading on technicals and with a bearish slant, is profitable while the dollar system survives. When it crashes, our core stack is ready. Winning in this current system while it lasts, and being ready for the next, is how I am trying to position myself.

There is an expression; 'better a year early than a day too late.' Yes that's true, but its too black and white. I am going to steal from Green Lantern's Bruce Lee quote; we need to be like water, adapting to the forces around us, rather than expending ourselves fighting something that just is what it is.

Mon, Jul 1, 2013 - 9:37pm argentus maximus
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@ AM charts post #2239

To clarify chart dates for self & make sure I'm not reading it backwards:

Does '250913' on first chart = Sept. 25, 2013;

'301013' on second chart = Oct. 3, 2013

Thx

Donna
Tue, Jul 2, 2013 - 7:32am donnaf
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donnaf wrote: To clarify

donnaf wrote:

To clarify chart dates for self & make sure I'm not reading it backwards:

Does '250913' on first chart = Sept. 25, 2013;

'301013' on second chart = Oct. 3, 2013

Thx

Donnaf: Yes. I'm using European dating so 010511 = 1st May 2011 I'll try to use text to denote month from here onwards (eg 01 May 11) for cross continental clarity, but excuse me if I occasionally slip into old habits as I have to type these posts up pretty fast. Also on the Gold Silver Ratio, silver vs gold thing ... a personal rant. I am sick of seeing internet pundits advising "Silver goes down twice as fast as gold, but it goes up 3 times faster than gold" This is inexcusable drivel designed to attract investors who can't afford gold. If it were true, silver would be worth more than gold .... and it isn't. I just point this out ... do a little test. Let's guess of a 100 point swing we are capable of capturing 80 points which would be a very desirable standard of ability, considering 75% of everyone loses. So then we switch from Au to Ag or back. Great. Now we catch 80% of the next swing. Here are some big questions that sort of don't get mentioned: 1 What are the switching costs for physical? 2 How big is the average swing? 3 What, if anything, is left for the holder of the metal who carried the price change risk 100% of the time? 5 If you take a cost hit to swap from metal to metal, how much new gain is required to get back to where you were before the swap? So how does this work financially? eg 100 units of capital - switching cost of 10% = 90 units. Now to regain parity with your old capital you need 10 units, which on 90 units is a gain of 11%! not 10%. So that means we need a new trend, which we catch according to our batting average of 80% capture, and it must go 11% x 1/80% = 13.75% in our favour before we make a single cent ... and then keep going even further so we can make money. Your mileage will differ I'm sure, but these things need saying because nobody out there is saying them. An active account required either a huge profitability record, or exceptionally low trading costs.
argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jul 2, 2013 - 7:47am
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Equity market diversion

SPX is in a rising wedge the past few weeks and looks set to fall hard in the next day or two.

Metals are in the obvious inverse head and shoulders the algos are so fond of blowing up.

I think AM has the 5th as a date of volatility, as does PEI. Of course that is job day here in the US.

I will look to the long end of the curve set-up to see what we have but the top in bond prices long

term looks in.

Gold basis AUG is thin at 1275, 1342, 1373.50 (those are magnets that will fill in time).

Tue, Jul 2, 2013 - 7:53am
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@Byzantium

Hat tips for both posts, Byzantium. Thanks.

You highlighted in a very clear way much of the trading philosophy underlying this thread which I have not gone into in sufficient detail. Stackers: in my view, those two posts warrant more than one read.

Why be positioned long only? There are multiple timeframes operating. The long term trend towards a hard asset/hard currency world will have many short term pullbacks, since no market moves in a single direction all of the time.

It pays to reduce exposure in a short term timeframe if the metals are consolidating recent gains by falling in value. The swing trading idea is designed to increase the total amount of metal held by exploiting these opportunities. Embracing the techniques of adjustable exposure also creates a flexible mindset for trading.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
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