The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:10am
Ilya Repin
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@Foscotanner Yes, the

@Foscotanner

Yes, the monthly, i had mentioned it a few weeks ago. The Signal that gave us the last slam, is being printed this month as long as it closes down. I think we can be pretty certain that this month closes down lol.

and so this cycle is 100% accurate and always results in a turn and it has since 2003.

this means that either

a) the monthly closing low is in and now we go up into end of 2015. gradually/dramatically doesn't matter, volatile, likely.
b) it is another bearish continuation cycle, as was the March one.. and we go down to sub 890.

Silver weekly needs one more down close week. I posted the Silver weekly chart a few weeks ago and said i will repost end of july. So thats what i'll do.

@ACAD

I have never read a single book about markets or technical analysis. I spend 100% of my time doing my own research and study. read charts not books. 100% self taught here. i believe the more time you devote to the ideas and creative works of others, the less you will yourself create.

@someone forgot who was it "yug" ?

asked about November 2015 "call" and the big rally.

answer.. I expect Gold to get to 3000+ by then but you have to understand as a trader and analyst i change my mind very often. Dogma will cost us money so if the market goes against me my plan changes. Keynes said it best "if the facts change i change my mind"

Currently, as all know. i am bullish and expect it to go higher into that date. If it changes then it changes.

------------------------

Finally, I do believe that after July i will be departing Turdville on to new pastures.. and will leave an email address in the thread here for all those that would like to able to contact me.

This is mainly due to my philosophy and ideology being very very different to that of TF. In real life its unlikely we would like each other.. As a result I no longer wish to contribute to his website and generate interest in his product or his standing in the Gold community as i very much disagree with his very reckless and unprofessional approach to it all. TFMR does not represent Gold IMO as there is too much nihilism and War and Crisis hype by those that just want to profit or return to break even. Its been bugging me for a long time and i just cant continue with it.. A man wearing a big yellow hat instructing all to buy Gold and Silver and Gold can "never go to $1200" is likely the reason we all find ourselves here. No one can ever be so sure of anything to say "never" and that's why you here me talking about probability all the times.


Anyway I could go into this but it is unnecessary, and it would be rude as it is his site. But i think most that come to this section of the TFMR do so for obvious reasons.

So the plans for Gold and Silver have been laid out be me here and that hasn't changed. I expect bullishness very soon and will do my final post here on July 4th 2013 and i hope that my work has helped others protect themselves from the financial and emotional predators that dominate this world.

I will continue with my research and increase the amount of trading i am doing as i have been neglecting that in order to help others here.. email contact will be made available here July 4th

All the best to everyone

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:20am (Reply to #2152)
ILUVPMS
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Ilya, I dont think you

Ilya,

I dont think you should leave due to others' ideologies. I think you staying would be the best for the community. We need level heads like you around instead of people who were encouragin others to buy during a major parabloic spike and saying that if you buy EDR at 13 dollars youll be happy in six months .

Just my two cents.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:30am (Reply to #2152)
Eric Original
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Well said, Ilya.

Well said, Ilya.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:33am (Reply to #2152)
ACAD
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Ilya - that is devastating

Ilya - that is devastating news. I think a lot of people will be sad to see you go. Will you and AM be starting the newsletter you mentioned in the past? I'm sure most of the people who visit this forum would subscribe. I certainly would.

Just to clarify one point you made, you said "Silver weekly needs one more down close week. I posted the Silver weekly chart a few weeks ago and said i will repost end of july. So thats what i'll do." Did you mean June instead of july, i.e., this would be the last down week? I haven't actually traded off of any of this info, but I was going to tomorrow hoping for the rally into July and August 5th. Just want to make sure I have my dates correct.

All the best with whatever you decide to do.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:34am (Reply to #2155)
ACAD
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Btw, I completely agree with

Btw, I completely agree with everything you said about TFMR, which is why I enjoy this thread so much.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:39am
GoldMania3000
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ILYA why go

Because your "philosophy and ideology being very very different to that of TF"? Were ever we go in life we find this happening-we have different points of view or different approaches. But your mission and vision is valued by many regardless of what others think. I'm glad you think differently then those on TFMR. I'm glad you differ then the leader of this site. It's a place where people can come and share different points of view. Regardless of good, bad or indifferent. Yeah I agree that theres been a lot of hype on these boards. But where ever you go on the internet there's much BS. Here's is one place where we have context, we have perspective that is balanced...so why leave? We live in a world that we have to respect others ideologies, may not have to agree with them, but have to allow others to have freedom to exist. That doesn't mean you should leave. You may find yourself on an island very alone one day because there are many that have different philosophies and ideologies. That's life. So the worse thing Turd has done is say it's never going to 1200, and buy the dip. Yup and said we were going to have a big summer last summer..just like TURK and sprott and Sinclari et al. Unfortunately many people have listened and didn't realize that what goes up can also come down. But we are all learning.

So i think you should stick around and stay true to what you see, regardless of what others say or not say or inflate. It's just part of life. I've come to the conclusion don't focus on what others are saying and just say true to what I see, but also keep an open mind for possiblities.

Do what you have to too. We will respect if you go or if you stay. But perfer if you stay.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:42am (Reply to #2157)
ILUVPMS
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Sinclair and all of KWN are

Sinclair and all of KWN are only concerned with themselves... they love to hype the metals as they all have a self-interest in it... one has a mine, another has gold money.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:42am
indosil
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@Ilya

You leaving this site will make it rudderless.... but i know where to catch you

But a lot of guys will be stuck in a rut with your abrupt departure.

Also,i went short crude @96.20

rest in mail.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:43am
indosil
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.

.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:45am
Abraham Bernanke
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A POLITE request

As AM & Ilya and a select few others are making this an excellent thread to read, unless you are enhancing or questioning their excellent analysis and posts then please don't post on this thread. The thread is starting to get rather watered down with other thread creep info and is making the thread harder to read and less valuable.

Just a kind request as there are other forums for general chit chat.

Thanks

Abe

EDIT: hey Ilya, have a long hard think about leaving and realize that you are an extremely valuable asset here and would be greatly missed should you go.

SWAGER on. Silver - Wine - Art - Gold - Energy - Real estate
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:58am
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Well what can I say? Wow!  I

Well what can I say? Wow!

I have something keeping me busy from doing long posts today, so I'll be back later.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 11:01am (Reply to #2152)
Yug
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I am

"I hope that my work has helped others protect themselves from the financial and emotional predators that dominate this world"

Yes you did, but the work has not finished yet, we not "came back to see the stars" (Inferno XXXIV - last verse)

I think we're still in the Inferno and there are not many Virgilios out there, that's the reason I read this thread and very few others on the web.

--

Thanks for the answer; but there are many questions and observations too forVirgilio..

You are talking about a new (week 27) red candle weeky in Ag: this seems to be different frfom your #2114 model.

Thankyou

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 11:26am
It's a mystery
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The abyss gets ever closer

I have stated for the record more than I can count this market is a sham. Simple buying of SPX by FED sponsored banks backed by bogus data metrics that DEFY the underlying economic activity. Check this out and ask yourself how much longer the House of Cards has before implosion. The government understated inflation dramatically to show economic growth. It did not happen. This is now fact.

If the CPI-U had been used to convert the “nominal” GDP numbers into “real” numbers, the reported headline growth rate would have been a much more modest 0.96%. And if the BPP index (which arguably best reflects the experiences of the American consumer) had be used as the “deflater,” the economy would have been reported to have been contracting at a -2.30% annualized rate.

Also this fun fact. Real per capita disposable incomes took yet another hit. The astonishing annualized contraction of real per capita disposable income has now reached -9.21% — dwarfing the -7.52% contraction rate recorded in the first quarter of 2009 (the worst quarterly contraction recorded during the official duration of the “Great Recession." So we have a situation where gold went vertical in the 1970's stagflation. Rising prices with no growth, only this time around the average household is getting crushed. All the data points presented by the government to get this asset bubble running are made up. The were successful in creaming gold and running the SPX in a ratio that still blows me away. You take away th high powered money the FED injected and you will get destruction in equity indexes. What that means for gold I have not a clue. Something should make gold recover but at this stage I do not see it.
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 11:29am
Ilya Repin
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back later. loads of PMs

back later. loads of PMs thanks everyone..

Yug not sure what that post is so will post what i am talking about later and link to the original.

must go now as busy.

@Indosil will read the email later but why did you short crude at 96.20? Yesterday i posted as short under 95.. crude is not most certainly not under 95 and two more closes need for the signal.. but im not adivsing anything so hope your trade goes well for you

Silver outperfroming today.. plan A gonig well.. hope for a spikedown tomo but doesnt have to..

ok back later to answer questions

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 11:36am
It's a mystery
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Per Harvey Organ

Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold is at a very dangerously low level of only 42.27 tonnes and none of the 9.5 tonnes delivery notices from May and the major part of the 30.466 tonnes from June issued by JPM on its dealer side has yet to leave.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory remains at an extremely low 141,197.86 oz.

ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 408,709.03 oz. However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 85,890. oz of deficient gold.

iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 27.76 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 11:38am
indosil
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@Ilya -CRUDE

well that was quick.....hit my SL in a jiffy....my bad..but i believe the sudden spike was caused by Russian Evacuation from Syria...

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 12:38pm
winedrinker
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harvey's counts

IAM

I think Harvey is a non trader. I am a trader-I took delivery of gold on FND from JPM and retendered it-I assume he thinks I took delivery and held it-that is often not the case-he seems to just add up all deliveries without regard to retenders/redeliveries.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 1:01pm (Reply to #2166)
ILUVPMS
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i stopped listening to harvey

i stopped listening to harvey and I think you should too.. hes too sensationalistic... he once proclaimed that scotia mocatta was bust... or that the comex was ready to default last year...

guys like this do nothing to better the gold community... ignore him

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 1:16pm
ILUVPMS
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silver

seems to be hiolding up well.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 1:26pm
indosil
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@Ilya

Your target of $1211 is here...seems like we'll see sub 1200 pretty soon