The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 8:01pm
ACAD
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General Analysis Question

AM / Ilya / other contributors to this site,

Thanks for a truly incredible forum. Reading this site actual gives me a bit of confidence in the direction of the metals, as opposed to other sites/forums which just offer a lot of opinions and hope. It's nice to see a few people who have a track record on making decent short term calls, which for the past couple of months that I've been following this forum, have been for the most part very accurate. Kudos to all of you.

So I have a few general questions for AM and Ilya. You are both long term bullish for gold and silver (Ilya more outspoken than AM), so I was hoping you could share why. If you've done this in a prior post please just let me know (as I'm sure I've missed a few). The reason I ask is because your analysis seems purely technical. Are you long term bullish solely on a technical basis? If so, what price action would it take for you to become bearish? What are the differences in the charts that make you bullish PMs, but bearish on the S&P?

One last one. Any good books you guys recommend on the type of cycles analysis you do?

Cheers!

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 8:43pm
Colonel Blimp
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Still nibbling..............

Moved stop up to break even at $1222 - target is $1272.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 2:21am
foscotanner
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observations

Some observations:

Quite a few of the miners I watch have done one of two things yesterday - either fallen to new lows on this move or they have moved to slightly higher lows. BUT...... Volume was low yesterday.

The drop..... Leg one back in Apr = straight down. This leg in silver & gold = drop followed by 3 day correction and then drop. Again no follow through yet this am.

I believe these two events represent a significant divergence.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 6:38am foscotanner
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@ AM

Do you still see a short term bottom imminently?

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 7:04am foscotanner
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hat tips & thoughts

I love that my question to AM has been given a hat tip.

Here is my thinking.

Volume is dropping off on selling. Therefore the next big volume spike is likely today in around 90-100 mins.

I have a feeling that the natural push would be down since that would be with trend and more normal trending with historic patterns on days such as today.

Given that the current declines are showing some weakness, I could see a push lower on volume where selling pressure is soaked up resulting in a nice bounce (setting us up for Ilya's rally into 7-10th July)

Now..... If we believe Armstrongs numbers, then 1230-35 needs to hold on weekly to avoid significant further drop. So based on data due in 90 mins, i see volume turning up. Based on volume turning up i see fresh lows. Based on the need to close above 1230-35 I see significant booking of profits at fresh lows for Qtr end resulting in bounce from fresh lows. This will hopefully give us two things. Failed push lower on volume. weekly close above 1230/35.

Then we may see ilya's rise. then pull back bottom into mid month at higher level.

Alternate is that we then see Ilya's sharp rise turn into sharp drop (weekly closes remain above 1230) before a turn in July through to Oct.

I mention Ilya's inverse possibility since he has been amazing at identifying the key times for big moves. In Apr he was calling for new ATH during May on violent move up. We got the smash down on time and amazing levels of selling. More recently the expected inverted. Now this is not to say that it will invert from Ilya's scenario. It just could. The timing points are all lining up........

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 7:36am
ivars
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New record after 2013 Q1 (

New record after 2013 Q1 ( must be even lower now with extra reserves added) :

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 8:48am
ILUVPMS
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seems this bull may be dead

seems this bull may be dead according to chris v.

Rambus thinks the same and states that the Gold chart is similar to the nasdaq parabola..

https://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/vermeulen062613.html

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 9:42am ILUVPMS
thatguy007
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ILUVPMS wrote: seems this

ILUVPMS wrote:

seems this bull may be dead according to chris v.

Rambus thinks the same and states that the Gold chart is similar to the nasdaq parabola..

https://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/vermeulen062613.html

Gotta love the "Bull market is over" calls :D keep em coming ppls. I can guarantee one thing, anyone who says the bull market is over will have trouble explaining why there was a bullmarket in the first place

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 9:45am
ivars
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Does this remind you of some

Does this remind you of some price action we have seen in silver /gold over last 2 years? This is yesterdays 5 min silver price chart:) So soon we shall see how it ends.

Actually , we know already:

Looks like we are few weeks from a bottom, month at most (compare to weekly silver gold charts, 1 week approx<=> 5 min).

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 9:54am ILUVPMS
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ILUVPMS wrote: seems this

ILUVPMS wrote:

seems this bull may be dead according to chris v.

Rambus thinks the same and states that the Gold chart is similar to the nasdaq parabola..

https://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/vermeulen062613.html

Nice comparison (not). Jduniphase went up 10x while gold didnt even double in that short time frame.
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:10am
Ilya Repin
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@Foscotanner Yes, the

@Foscotanner

Yes, the monthly, i had mentioned it a few weeks ago. The Signal that gave us the last slam, is being printed this month as long as it closes down. I think we can be pretty certain that this month closes down lol.

and so this cycle is 100% accurate and always results in a turn and it has since 2003.

this means that either

a) the monthly closing low is in and now we go up into end of 2015. gradually/dramatically doesn't matter, volatile, likely.
b) it is another bearish continuation cycle, as was the March one.. and we go down to sub 890.

Silver weekly needs one more down close week. I posted the Silver weekly chart a few weeks ago and said i will repost end of july. So thats what i'll do.

@ACAD

I have never read a single book about markets or technical analysis. I spend 100% of my time doing my own research and study. read charts not books. 100% self taught here. i believe the more time you devote to the ideas and creative works of others, the less you will yourself create.

@someone forgot who was it "yug" ?

asked about November 2015 "call" and the big rally.

answer.. I expect Gold to get to 3000+ by then but you have to understand as a trader and analyst i change my mind very often. Dogma will cost us money so if the market goes against me my plan changes. Keynes said it best "if the facts change i change my mind"

Currently, as all know. i am bullish and expect it to go higher into that date. If it changes then it changes.

------------------------

Finally, I do believe that after July i will be departing Turdville on to new pastures.. and will leave an email address in the thread here for all those that would like to able to contact me.

This is mainly due to my philosophy and ideology being very very different to that of TF. In real life its unlikely we would like each other.. As a result I no longer wish to contribute to his website and generate interest in his product or his standing in the Gold community as i very much disagree with his very reckless and unprofessional approach to it all. TFMR does not represent Gold IMO as there is too much nihilism and War and Crisis hype by those that just want to profit or return to break even. Its been bugging me for a long time and i just cant continue with it.. A man wearing a big yellow hat instructing all to buy Gold and Silver and Gold can "never go to $1200" is likely the reason we all find ourselves here. No one can ever be so sure of anything to say "never" and that's why you here me talking about probability all the times.


Anyway I could go into this but it is unnecessary, and it would be rude as it is his site. But i think most that come to this section of the TFMR do so for obvious reasons.

So the plans for Gold and Silver have been laid out be me here and that hasn't changed. I expect bullishness very soon and will do my final post here on July 4th 2013 and i hope that my work has helped others protect themselves from the financial and emotional predators that dominate this world.

I will continue with my research and increase the amount of trading i am doing as i have been neglecting that in order to help others here.. email contact will be made available here July 4th

All the best to everyone

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:20am Ilya Repin
ILUVPMS
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Ilya, I dont think you

Ilya,

I dont think you should leave due to others' ideologies. I think you staying would be the best for the community. We need level heads like you around instead of people who were encouragin others to buy during a major parabloic spike and saying that if you buy EDR at 13 dollars youll be happy in six months .

Just my two cents.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:30am Ilya Repin
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Well said, Ilya.

Well said, Ilya.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:33am Ilya Repin
ACAD
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Ilya - that is devastating

Ilya - that is devastating news. I think a lot of people will be sad to see you go. Will you and AM be starting the newsletter you mentioned in the past? I'm sure most of the people who visit this forum would subscribe. I certainly would.

Just to clarify one point you made, you said "Silver weekly needs one more down close week. I posted the Silver weekly chart a few weeks ago and said i will repost end of july. So thats what i'll do." Did you mean June instead of july, i.e., this would be the last down week? I haven't actually traded off of any of this info, but I was going to tomorrow hoping for the rally into July and August 5th. Just want to make sure I have my dates correct.

All the best with whatever you decide to do.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:34am ACAD
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Btw, I completely agree with

Btw, I completely agree with everything you said about TFMR, which is why I enjoy this thread so much.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:39am
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ILYA why go

Because your "philosophy and ideology being very very different to that of TF"? Were ever we go in life we find this happening-we have different points of view or different approaches. But your mission and vision is valued by many regardless of what others think. I'm glad you think differently then those on TFMR. I'm glad you differ then the leader of this site. It's a place where people can come and share different points of view. Regardless of good, bad or indifferent. Yeah I agree that theres been a lot of hype on these boards. But where ever you go on the internet there's much BS. Here's is one place where we have context, we have perspective that is balanced...so why leave? We live in a world that we have to respect others ideologies, may not have to agree with them, but have to allow others to have freedom to exist. That doesn't mean you should leave. You may find yourself on an island very alone one day because there are many that have different philosophies and ideologies. That's life. So the worse thing Turd has done is say it's never going to 1200, and buy the dip. Yup and said we were going to have a big summer last summer..just like TURK and sprott and Sinclari et al. Unfortunately many people have listened and didn't realize that what goes up can also come down. But we are all learning.

So i think you should stick around and stay true to what you see, regardless of what others say or not say or inflate. It's just part of life. I've come to the conclusion don't focus on what others are saying and just say true to what I see, but also keep an open mind for possiblities.

Do what you have to too. We will respect if you go or if you stay. But perfer if you stay.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:42am GoldMania3000
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Sinclair and all of KWN are

Sinclair and all of KWN are only concerned with themselves... they love to hype the metals as they all have a self-interest in it... one has a mine, another has gold money.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:42am
indosil
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@Ilya

You leaving this site will make it rudderless.... but i know where to catch you

But a lot of guys will be stuck in a rut with your abrupt departure.

Also,i went short crude @96.20

rest in mail.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:43am
indosil
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.

.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 10:45am
Abraham Bernanke
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A POLITE request

As AM & Ilya and a select few others are making this an excellent thread to read, unless you are enhancing or questioning their excellent analysis and posts then please don't post on this thread. The thread is starting to get rather watered down with other thread creep info and is making the thread harder to read and less valuable.

Just a kind request as there are other forums for general chit chat.

Thanks

Abe

EDIT: hey Ilya, have a long hard think about leaving and realize that you are an extremely valuable asset here and would be greatly missed should you go.

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