The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 10:57am
It's a mystery
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The Government is the enabler

but they are slave to the money changers and have been for centuries. They pull the strings. Witness what happened in Ireland.

Most remarkable of all is there is zero education on money up until post high school. It is not taught. Captured educators.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 11:10am
It's a mystery
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The manipulation Ilya refers to is credit

When credit is money your society is doomed. Those fortunate enough to have cash and little debt will survive but most will not because credit is money.

And the people at Mises will tell you that is is simply impossible to avoid the implosion caused by a credit fueled binge.

As an aside I should mention that crude oil and distillates is the most favored way of keeping price levels high. Gasoline affects a lot of prices and so does crude.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 11:29am
Ilya Repin
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No, i was commenting on the

No, i was commenting on the Manipulation that you were referring to, And that was not money as debt.

Your comments were about Aglos and TBTB manipulation stocks/PMs/FX

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 12:13pm
indosil
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@Ilya

Thanks once again.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 12:23pm (Reply to #2134)
It's a mystery
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Ilya

stocks move with credit. Undeniable correlation.

They are the same. It is how Warren Buffet made his money. the credit cycle and or binge if you prefer. That is what GDP is which is why it is a bogus metric. It is all about credit and so forth and so on.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 12:53pm
Rui
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The most telling indicator so far is ...

option activity to me. A big GDX June put @ 27 popped up in May when it was still around 29. I saw it so I stayed off the market and "Bang" it went under last week right on time. Last Friday another big SLV Setp put @17 popped up and "Bang" it went under today. I didn't expect today's crash to happen this quickly tho. Keep an eye on GLD, GDX & SLV option activities.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 1:04pm (Reply to #2137)
ACAD
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Options OI

Very interesting. How do you track options OI? Do you just happen to notice it changing, or do you know of a website that tracks this info? I use interactive brokers and it doesn't seem to have this functionality.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 1:34pm (Reply to #2138)
Rui
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ACAD wrote:Very interesting.

ACAD wrote:

Very interesting. How do you track options OI? Do you just happen to notice it changing, or do you know of a website that tracks this info? I use interactive brokers and it doesn't seem to have this functionality.

I check GLD, SLV, GDX option trading daily using my broker software. For historical data try this website:

https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices

The problem is it's not really "historical" in that it ain't keep data on expired ones,otherwise you'd still see the history on June GDX. Then again it's much better than having nothing.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 2:56pm
GoldMania3000
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Seems to correlate with something AM indicated

Not that KWN is on, but this caught my eye. 2016. AM indicated he would probably be selling his PMs in 2016:) So let's see how this plays out. go long and stay strong

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/26_As_Gold_%26_Silver_Plunge_Here_Are_Two_Remarkable_Charts.html

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 6:52pm
Colonel Blimp
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Another nibble

Long at $1222 - stop at $1202.

May not be the bottom but it won't take much to get a $40-50 bounce going..........

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 8:01pm
ACAD
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General Analysis Question

AM / Ilya / other contributors to this site,

Thanks for a truly incredible forum. Reading this site actual gives me a bit of confidence in the direction of the metals, as opposed to other sites/forums which just offer a lot of opinions and hope. It's nice to see a few people who have a track record on making decent short term calls, which for the past couple of months that I've been following this forum, have been for the most part very accurate. Kudos to all of you.

So I have a few general questions for AM and Ilya. You are both long term bullish for gold and silver (Ilya more outspoken than AM), so I was hoping you could share why. If you've done this in a prior post please just let me know (as I'm sure I've missed a few). The reason I ask is because your analysis seems purely technical. Are you long term bullish solely on a technical basis? If so, what price action would it take for you to become bearish? What are the differences in the charts that make you bullish PMs, but bearish on the S&P?

One last one. Any good books you guys recommend on the type of cycles analysis you do?

Cheers!

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 8:43pm
Colonel Blimp
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Still nibbling..............

Moved stop up to break even at $1222 - target is $1272.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 2:21am
foscotanner
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observations

Some observations:

Quite a few of the miners I watch have done one of two things yesterday - either fallen to new lows on this move or they have moved to slightly higher lows. BUT...... Volume was low yesterday.

The drop..... Leg one back in Apr = straight down. This leg in silver & gold = drop followed by 3 day correction and then drop. Again no follow through yet this am.

I believe these two events represent a significant divergence.

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 6:38am (Reply to #2144)
foscotanner
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@ AM

Do you still see a short term bottom imminently?

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 7:04am (Reply to #2145)
foscotanner
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hat tips & thoughts

I love that my question to AM has been given a hat tip.

Here is my thinking.

Volume is dropping off on selling. Therefore the next big volume spike is likely today in around 90-100 mins.

I have a feeling that the natural push would be down since that would be with trend and more normal trending with historic patterns on days such as today.

Given that the current declines are showing some weakness, I could see a push lower on volume where selling pressure is soaked up resulting in a nice bounce (setting us up for Ilya's rally into 7-10th July)

Now..... If we believe Armstrongs numbers, then 1230-35 needs to hold on weekly to avoid significant further drop. So based on data due in 90 mins, i see volume turning up. Based on volume turning up i see fresh lows. Based on the need to close above 1230-35 I see significant booking of profits at fresh lows for Qtr end resulting in bounce from fresh lows. This will hopefully give us two things. Failed push lower on volume. weekly close above 1230/35.

Then we may see ilya's rise. then pull back bottom into mid month at higher level.

Alternate is that we then see Ilya's sharp rise turn into sharp drop (weekly closes remain above 1230) before a turn in July through to Oct.

I mention Ilya's inverse possibility since he has been amazing at identifying the key times for big moves. In Apr he was calling for new ATH during May on violent move up. We got the smash down on time and amazing levels of selling. More recently the expected inverted. Now this is not to say that it will invert from Ilya's scenario. It just could. The timing points are all lining up........

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 7:36am
ivars
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New record after 2013 Q1 (

New record after 2013 Q1 ( must be even lower now with extra reserves added) :

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 8:48am
ILUVPMS
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seems this bull may be dead

seems this bull may be dead according to chris v.

Rambus thinks the same and states that the Gold chart is similar to the nasdaq parabola..

https://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/vermeulen062613.html

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 9:42am (Reply to #2148)
thatguy007
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ILUVPMS wrote: seems this

ILUVPMS wrote:

seems this bull may be dead according to chris v.

Rambus thinks the same and states that the Gold chart is similar to the nasdaq parabola..

https://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/vermeulen062613.html

Gotta love the "Bull market is over" calls :D keep em coming ppls. I can guarantee one thing, anyone who says the bull market is over will have trouble explaining why there was a bullmarket in the first place

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 9:45am
ivars
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Does this remind you of some

Does this remind you of some price action we have seen in silver /gold over last 2 years? This is yesterdays 5 min silver price chart:) So soon we shall see how it ends.

Actually , we know already:

Looks like we are few weeks from a bottom, month at most (compare to weekly silver gold charts, 1 week approx<=> 5 min).

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Thu, Jun 27, 2013 - 9:54am (Reply to #2148)
Sirtitan45
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ILUVPMS wrote: seems this

ILUVPMS wrote:

seems this bull may be dead according to chris v.

Rambus thinks the same and states that the Gold chart is similar to the nasdaq parabola..

https://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/vermeulen062613.html

Nice comparison (not). Jduniphase went up 10x while gold didnt even double in that short time frame.