The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 5:26pm eclectic
rtabit
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eclectic wrote: Would you be

eclectic wrote:

Would you be able to provide us with an EW update? Thank you.

Here is GC EW chart, I guess that's what chart you wanted, I was just looking at SPX EW also, it's a lot less clear though, the bearish count I would say right now has slight advantage, down from big advantage yesterday, the bullish count really needed strong upward momentum today to make smaller timeframe bullish charts work, and it got it.

I have targets of 1232 and 1216 for end of black wave (3). 1,232 black wave (3) would be 4.236 the length of black wave (1). 1,216 blue wave 5 would be 1.618 the length of blue wave 1. I also have 1151 as main target, red wave C would be 1.618 the length of red wave A, same as “most important” indicator from chart you sent. 1424 would invalidate this count and increase probability that black wave (3) is already complete.

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:32pm
ILUVPMS
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the aussie dollar has broked

the aussie dollar has broked down... it does not bode well for the commodity complex as well as gold. we seem to be heading down in a major way.. and it will take years for this bull to resume... those with bullish projections need to realize that years of chart damage have been done so its not going to be up up and away . Here is the latest from armstrong. https://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/25/the-a-is-confirming-commodity-...

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:32pm
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Disclosure: I sold 100% of my

Disclosure: I sold 100% of my swing trading Ag and Au to go flat. Long term longs are unchanged.

It's sliding and getting weaker very fast, and there should be a better price to buy it back in the coming days.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:51pm
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Argentus - Question?

Does this move invalidate your view of a double bottom this week?

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 10:36pm
redwood
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Thanks everyone here for an

Thanks everyone here for an extraordinary forum. I've not seen anything like it.

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:09pm
Ilya Repin
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long Gold 1248$

long Gold 1248$

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:18pm
Colonel Blimp
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I'll join you

Long Gold at $1247....

Pressure seems to be on Silver and Gold only - everything else including Copper is down only fractionally.................uhm.............something to do with July expiry perhaps?

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:19pm Ilya Repin
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All from my posts last week.

I am Short under $19.60 and $1283 levels as mentioned many times.

This was not recommended but "suggested" as a good idea to protect yourself and your stack from the grizzly bears!!

Ilya Repin wrote:


Significant Gold levels im watching are

1588

1471

1422 < > (important for direction)

1402

1341 < > (important for direction)

1283

1211

bears current targets are 19.60 and 1248 and expect them to get there

Ilya Repin wrote:

I favor chances of a massive bear slaughter taking over any moment.. if not then we make new lows very soon. that Silver level is massive strong and thats why told all about it. if that fails 16 is on the cards and Gold way down..

Gold has to close the week over 1304 as that open the gate for 1180!

Just buy as close to that Silver level i called earlier and use a tight stop ..

dont buy rallies as vol will chop you up @Ivars be careful

Ilya Repin wrote:

If you are trading Silver at the mo i would be very careful and only short that level mentioned as its very strong down here. certainly wouldn't short above that level. Notice how Gold is making new lows again and again and Silver has practically stopped dead at that level? It keeps coming back to it and bouncing above and bellow.. Well this is either very good or very bad.. it will split hard soon, one way or the other.

If it breaks new lows and consolidates bellow todays then its could drop another few $ IMO. I will be shorting that level anyway and also 1283 on August Gold is a good spot.

I have some pretty nasty targets for Gold and Silver at the minute but not sure enough of them yet to type it up :/

Thanks again LL nice of you to drop by :)

Ilya Repin wrote:

So here we are

PLAN A

Major rally is on the doorstep,

allows for the possibility of a stab to $18.10 by 30th June i have shown this on the chart......

..............Plan A target, with the low being in or the last spike down by 28/30th June will have a huge bounce into around July 10th before getting sold down for a higher low June 15th or so.

in both scenarios $24.20 - $25.30$ for the week of August 5th 2013

note, i think AMs separate work has him looking for a lower low end of month (before lower lows later in the Big trade plans) so maybe worth thinking about that one as i have a date for end of month too. But i am leaning towards the lows being in by early week as its the first trading days after 21St June.. and also absolutely everyone is talking about lower now.. even main street is talking about 16$ as ok. super bullish in my world. Low could be in already.

So that is may plan A

Ilya Repin wrote:


Metals. in the main thread, i had warned about the importance of 21.50 Silver long ago and yesterday pointed out the problem with Silver losing 21.50 on a close. I also said that under there Silver could even drop 5$.. well we lost 2$ in the first day and now we have also lost my other level of 19.60, and thus Short Silver under 19.60 on July contract is now my bias.

However, with more liquidation and real margins calls likely in Asia and a brewing credit problem in China.... More downside is likely IMO and could be extreme for one more day.

Depending on the weekly close, I think Palladium could get cut in half and Platinum a good 30% Sprott Asset management jumped the gun a little buying metals at multi year highs i think.

Palladium is 100% industrial, Palladium less so but more than Silver..

...........(edit) tech is extremely bearish.. lots of money will be selling AND shorting (two different things) and if the other precious metals get chopped it will spill over in Silver and.Gold..

However, i am cautious of this being a big bear trap in all markets. Gold/Silver/SPX/XPD you name it. In general my view is still that it could explode higher in an instant. (and stocks certainly could bounce strongly)

21st June is tomorrow

So for those that read my stuff , No surprises here and hopefully no losses.

The horrendous targets mentioned to LL that i wasn't sure about are 12 $ Silver, still not sure but staying short under $19.60 incase lol

I have Buy orders at $18.30 and $18.10 December Silver for a bounce or whatever it wishes to do. Stops on these just under $17.90

My thinking is i expect another stab lower after this within the next week.. the 3rd spike low of the expected 3. then we get a flash crash rally to 1600$ for first weeks of july and then retest down here in August or so.. October.

we are making the bottom IMO.. i could be wrong.. and so in no rush to close shorts.. don't want to get blown up..

nein capitulatenn!!

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:31pm
indosil
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@AM@Ilya

Sitting out here..twiddling my thumbs....waiting for the Indian MCX to open....should open with a wonderful gap down..

$12..........I am waiting

On a more Serious note..what exactly will cause the turnaround....some say GLD depletion is a sign of Metals about to breakout..Trader Dan says it reeks of more downside to come...hmmm

Besides you are about to be Incommunicado...

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:36pm
Colonel Blimp
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Bear watch...

I have a tight stop (for me) at 1239 and initial target of 1282 and subsequent of 1320.

Smallish stake so won't be up all night watching it!........... but hopefully a nice surprise in the morning with my kippers!

Good luck!

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 12:10am
Ilya Repin
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Glad you join comrade! Dont

Glad you could join comrade!

Dont know.. but 1248$ is one of my levels.. Could be a bottom or a big 100$ bounce.. just buy and get ready to run if the bears come back :)

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 12:30am
Ilya Repin
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covering 25% shorts from

covering 25% shorts from 1283

stop raised on long to entry and now its a free trade :)

could still be a bear flag here... points to the big level at 1210. i will close all shorts there

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 12:54am Ilya Repin
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Ilya Repin wrote: covering

Ilya Repin wrote:

covering 25% shorts from 1283

stop raised on long to entry and now its a free trade :)

could still be a bear flag here... points to the big level at 1210. i will close all shorts there

You rock Ilya, thanks for putting it out there :D

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 5:02am Ilya Repin
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Ilya: Scenario Alpha

It seems we have a trip along Ilya SCENARIO Alpha,

not an easy trip. I feel Just a step to the abyss, under 18.30. I'd like to have you faith in it

Please Ilya could you comment better:

"

Whether we get plan A or plan B.. regardless, i think all calls for lowers lows after August do no happen and Gold and Silver about to violently rally into solid into November 2015 (this is not good news)

"

A time jump from July-Aug 2013 to 2015 stucks my mind, did you want to type 2013 instead of 2015?

Thanks for all

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 5:02am Ilya Repin
Yug
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Ilya: Scenario Alpha

It seems we have a trip along Ilya SCENARIO Alpha,

not an easy trip. I feel Just a step to the abyss, under 18.30. I'd like to have you faith in it

Please Ilya could you comment better:

"

Whether we get plan A or plan B.. regardless, i think all calls for lowers lows after August do no happen and Gold and Silver about to violently rally into solid into November 2015 (this is not good news)

"

A time jump from July-Aug 2013 to 2015 stucks my mind, did you want to type 2013 instead of 2015?

Thanks for all

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 5:52am
It's a mystery
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Miners

Just brought up charts of the Big 3 SA mining stocks. AU is probing 2001 lows, HMY is far lower than anytime during the bull in gold and GFI is getting close.

The people playing in gold are running the risk of shuttering SA mines. Were that to happen SA would devolve into chaos. I shudder to think of the riots there.

Every gold miner in the world should shutter production if they have cash on hand to service debt. I would not mine an ounce until this nonsense ends. You look at gasoline usage at 1992 levels and oil at $95. That's not logical and the weak dollar argument is nonsense.

Something has to give for if the SA's shutter look out.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 7:46am argentus maximus
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@AM RE:Last week of June

Noted.

Thanks for the great work, and I will keep you posted.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 8:19am Colonel Blimp
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Only in the sense that the

Only in the sense that the 1st week of July is after the weekend, but on the chart the extra days won't show up.

We seem to be within 12 hours of a low (like that is not obvious!) but the 24th timeline only placed a pause on the descent creating high within the flag pattern we just fell out of. So the low after the decline becomes the next timeline ... pretty much within the current 24 hour period.

For the next pivot, I am looking at the 30th. It get's pretty complicated between 30th June and 10th July.

A lot depends on what direction it's going when it arrives at these short term pivots.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 8:24am
It's a mystery
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Off topic

So ZH picks up on the piece that Chinese banks are essentially not lending, yet BIDU, SINA, SOHU are all up pre-market because in a world that is simply insane upside down is right side up. I'm not religious but if there is a God it has some explaining to do on this one LOL.

Wed, Jun 26, 2013 - 8:38am
Boardwalk
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IAM

In a backwards world God's explaining sounds something like - WOOF!

"Be right and sit tight"
randomness