The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 9:12am
It's a mystery
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Ok 30 year will top at

4.3% per a thin zone fill if we get there this go around.

I'll do some digging around to see where the stress might lie but I will say this about lease rates.

The banks have almost covered, so I do not see lease rates doing anything but following the current rise in global rates.

Remember everyone it is not necessarily a rise or a fall in anything that matters today. It is what the prevailing model has as accepted volatility. When the VAR runs into issues it is invariably due to increased volatility. This is where Kyle Bass is placing his bets.

Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 6:22pm (Reply to #2077)
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Yug wrote: Hi Argentus,

Yug wrote:

Hi Argentus, ...... What is the difference between redline projection and grey ones? ...

They are tested for correlation and persistence.

The red line has correlation which is between 6 and 20 times more persistent than the gray line. Which is to say that the gray line's correlation comes and goes again. But in accuracy, when the grayline is good, it's very accurate with a very high correlation at those times.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 6:25pm (Reply to #2093)
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The redline has a lower

The redline has a lower correlation but while it has a looser fit against price, it is a more robust and less precise tool.

In trading I value robustness over precision.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 2:37am
ivars
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I apologize for multiple

I apologize for multiple margin call entries. I saved it once, from my Nexus pad.. somehow it became 7 times.

If there is a moderator out there who can delete at least 6 of them, I would appreciate that enormously.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 7:33am (Reply to #2085)
ivars
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No, that was some mistake but

No, that was some mistake but in fact its painful to recognize that finally play money has gone. I hanged in for 1 year 1 month, so bit longer then average beginner but its does not matter as the outcome was the same.

Now I have to think shall I ever risk my money once again in this game. Of course, i remember reading that every trader be it retail or professional has emptied his first account totally ( provided it had finite size- the only constraint- otherwise, the size does not matter- you lose your account starting from any size). So did I , but I am not pleased with the way I made (or did not make) my decisions. Not with the outcome, but the way of making decisions- as if I knew what was going to happen and did not need to calculate probabilities and risk/reward ratios.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 7:33am
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Lets see: last week of June

Lets see:

last week of June as per our longstanding forecast .. check

bond markets imploding ... check

banks blowing up .... awaited

Russia vs USA confrontation being arranged by leadership idiots .... check

new disease news discovered ... check

government scandal for this special occasion (surveillance) ...check

act of war .... awaited this week, or that armaments ship floating in two pieces counts as ....err ... awaited

civil confrontation ...HK, China, Russia snubs DOJ ... check

apathy interest in PM longs .... comments on Turdville Main St very slow this week ... check

national transfer of power ... Emir of Qatar abdicates, hands power to son ... check

markets all hammering on long term support levels and debating whether to breakthrough or reverse ... check

PMs looking like they are going to the sky or to zero ... check

After all that it seems almost unnecessary to post this chart of spot gold.

How frequently does this RSI (in red for non chartists) get to 30 or 70 and what tends to happen shortly after?

We are proximate to long term support (in green).

This is an anniversary of a significant weekly time cycle.

The 24th is now done, the day after tomorrow is the 27th, the 30th is over the weekend so we can move that to Friday 28th or Monday 1st July from a trading point of view

I also want to mention for those to may be in excitable places the first few days of July should be eventful. A human violence wave peak between 30th and 5th could cause some places to get "newsworthy".

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 7:51am
indosil
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@Argentus

Excellent Post-Check

Style of Narration-Hilarious-check

Chart Being Executed Accordingly-Check

Going Long on Friday/Monday-ummmm???

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:08am
It's a mystery
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So the first week of July

brings us a bevy of data manipulated or not. We have ISM and jobs and in light of recent FED pronouncements these reports are simply huge. We have expiration in the metals today for options on futures but there really is not a great deal of open interest in option land. What is of note could be the delivery via Comex. That may bear watching.

Just a heads up on a fractal presented over at marketanthropology.com. In a word...YIKES!

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:50am
It's a mystery
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Please Examine This!

The Five year chart of EEM the emerging market ETF is so bearish it's crazy.

There is a massive four year head and shoulder top.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&instt...

The open interest in JULY EEM puts is staggering

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 5:08pm
ENOUGH
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BRIEFLY

Both counts for the S&P point toward 1598/1600.... The primary calls for a retrace to 50%/62% at 1579/1575 from minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C1 top.... the alt. also points up toward 1599 but with a deep pullback there after for the completion of major [4] at Y=1.23*W at 1544, 38% retrace of major [3] at 1527 or (c)=(a) at 1505. best, E.

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 5:26pm (Reply to #2073)
rtabit
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eclectic wrote: Would you be

eclectic wrote:

Would you be able to provide us with an EW update? Thank you.

Here is GC EW chart, I guess that's what chart you wanted, I was just looking at SPX EW also, it's a lot less clear though, the bearish count I would say right now has slight advantage, down from big advantage yesterday, the bullish count really needed strong upward momentum today to make smaller timeframe bullish charts work, and it got it.

I have targets of 1232 and 1216 for end of black wave (3). 1,232 black wave (3) would be 4.236 the length of black wave (1). 1,216 blue wave 5 would be 1.618 the length of blue wave 1. I also have 1151 as main target, red wave C would be 1.618 the length of red wave A, same as “most important” indicator from chart you sent. 1424 would invalidate this count and increase probability that black wave (3) is already complete.

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:32pm
ILUVPMS
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the aussie dollar has broked

the aussie dollar has broked down... it does not bode well for the commodity complex as well as gold. we seem to be heading down in a major way.. and it will take years for this bull to resume... those with bullish projections need to realize that years of chart damage have been done so its not going to be up up and away . Here is the latest from armstrong. https://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/25/the-a-is-confirming-commodity-...

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:32pm
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Disclosure: I sold 100% of my

Disclosure: I sold 100% of my swing trading Ag and Au to go flat. Long term longs are unchanged.

It's sliding and getting weaker very fast, and there should be a better price to buy it back in the coming days.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:51pm
Colonel Blimp
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Argentus - Question?

Does this move invalidate your view of a double bottom this week?

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 10:36pm
redwood
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Thanks everyone here for an

Thanks everyone here for an extraordinary forum. I've not seen anything like it.

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:09pm
Ilya Repin
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long Gold 1248$

long Gold 1248$

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:18pm
Colonel Blimp
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I'll join you

Long Gold at $1247....

Pressure seems to be on Silver and Gold only - everything else including Copper is down only fractionally.................uhm.............something to do with July expiry perhaps?

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:19pm (Reply to #2003)
Ilya Repin
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All from my posts last week.

I am Short under $19.60 and $1283 levels as mentioned many times.

This was not recommended but "suggested" as a good idea to protect yourself and your stack from the grizzly bears!!

Ilya Repin wrote:


Significant Gold levels im watching are

1588

1471

1422 < > (important for direction)

1402

1341 < > (important for direction)

1283

1211

bears current targets are 19.60 and 1248 and expect them to get there

Ilya Repin wrote:

I favor chances of a massive bear slaughter taking over any moment.. if not then we make new lows very soon. that Silver level is massive strong and thats why told all about it. if that fails 16 is on the cards and Gold way down..

Gold has to close the week over 1304 as that open the gate for 1180!

Just buy as close to that Silver level i called earlier and use a tight stop ..

dont buy rallies as vol will chop you up @Ivars be careful

Ilya Repin wrote:

If you are trading Silver at the mo i would be very careful and only short that level mentioned as its very strong down here. certainly wouldn't short above that level. Notice how Gold is making new lows again and again and Silver has practically stopped dead at that level? It keeps coming back to it and bouncing above and bellow.. Well this is either very good or very bad.. it will split hard soon, one way or the other.

If it breaks new lows and consolidates bellow todays then its could drop another few $ IMO. I will be shorting that level anyway and also 1283 on August Gold is a good spot.

I have some pretty nasty targets for Gold and Silver at the minute but not sure enough of them yet to type it up :/

Thanks again LL nice of you to drop by :)

Ilya Repin wrote:

So here we are

PLAN A

Major rally is on the doorstep,

allows for the possibility of a stab to $18.10 by 30th June i have shown this on the chart......

..............Plan A target, with the low being in or the last spike down by 28/30th June will have a huge bounce into around July 10th before getting sold down for a higher low June 15th or so.

in both scenarios $24.20 - $25.30$ for the week of August 5th 2013

note, i think AMs separate work has him looking for a lower low end of month (before lower lows later in the Big trade plans) so maybe worth thinking about that one as i have a date for end of month too. But i am leaning towards the lows being in by early week as its the first trading days after 21St June.. and also absolutely everyone is talking about lower now.. even main street is talking about 16$ as ok. super bullish in my world. Low could be in already.

So that is may plan A

Ilya Repin wrote:


Metals. in the main thread, i had warned about the importance of 21.50 Silver long ago and yesterday pointed out the problem with Silver losing 21.50 on a close. I also said that under there Silver could even drop 5$.. well we lost 2$ in the first day and now we have also lost my other level of 19.60, and thus Short Silver under 19.60 on July contract is now my bias.

However, with more liquidation and real margins calls likely in Asia and a brewing credit problem in China.... More downside is likely IMO and could be extreme for one more day.

Depending on the weekly close, I think Palladium could get cut in half and Platinum a good 30% Sprott Asset management jumped the gun a little buying metals at multi year highs i think.

Palladium is 100% industrial, Palladium less so but more than Silver..

...........(edit) tech is extremely bearish.. lots of money will be selling AND shorting (two different things) and if the other precious metals get chopped it will spill over in Silver and.Gold..

However, i am cautious of this being a big bear trap in all markets. Gold/Silver/SPX/XPD you name it. In general my view is still that it could explode higher in an instant. (and stocks certainly could bounce strongly)

21st June is tomorrow

So for those that read my stuff , No surprises here and hopefully no losses.

The horrendous targets mentioned to LL that i wasn't sure about are 12 $ Silver, still not sure but staying short under $19.60 incase lol

I have Buy orders at $18.30 and $18.10 December Silver for a bounce or whatever it wishes to do. Stops on these just under $17.90

My thinking is i expect another stab lower after this within the next week.. the 3rd spike low of the expected 3. then we get a flash crash rally to 1600$ for first weeks of july and then retest down here in August or so.. October.

we are making the bottom IMO.. i could be wrong.. and so in no rush to close shorts.. don't want to get blown up..

nein capitulatenn!!

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:31pm
indosil
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@AM@Ilya

Sitting out here..twiddling my thumbs....waiting for the Indian MCX to open....should open with a wonderful gap down..

$12..........I am waiting

On a more Serious note..what exactly will cause the turnaround....some say GLD depletion is a sign of Metals about to breakout..Trader Dan says it reeks of more downside to come...hmmm

Besides you are about to be Incommunicado...

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 11:36pm
Colonel Blimp
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Bear watch...

I have a tight stop (for me) at 1239 and initial target of 1282 and subsequent of 1320.

Smallish stake so won't be up all night watching it!........... but hopefully a nice surprise in the morning with my kippers!

Good luck!