The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 4:59am
ivars
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Margin call on silver at

Margin call on silver at 19,70, so I now quit trading for some time.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 4:59am
ivars
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Margin call on silver at

Margin call on silver at 19,70, so I now quit trading for some time.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 4:59am
ivars
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Margin call on silver at

Margin call on silver at 19,70, so I now quit trading for some time.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 7:02am
indosil
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@Ivars

Did u get margin calls@ 7 times ?Looks like it coz you posted the same post 7 times

Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 7:18am
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Today in Singapore

I talked again to UOB Singapore today after lunch. I was told by my contact there that gold and silver sales are mostly buyers still with long lines, silver is being bought on account (like a bank book) but gold is being bought and mostly physical taken in small and large quantities and now he said he is getting calls from as far away as Thailand about coming in to buy gold and silver products and enquiries about safe deposit box availabilities there in the bank.

Confucius say beware Sanur pilot who talk big money as he fly with hot air
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 7:31am
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Something very much worth reading.

Although released last Friday, I just came across this article and it is great piece with a lot of truths in it.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/1514602-ignore-the-fed-s-doublespeak-an...

Confucius say beware Sanur pilot who talk big money as he fly with hot air
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 7:42am
It's a mystery
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So anyone watching rates?

30 Year is down almost TWO HANDLES this AM.

Recall the prescient words of Stanley Druckenmiller. I paraphrase...does the FED honestly think it can even allow its holdings to run-off? Every hedge fund manager in the world will front-run that trade. The FED cannot stop or it risks a spike in rates.

Well bonds of all significant duration are simply getting torched.

Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 8:10am Jakarta Expat
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@Jakarta

Tom Luongo used to be a regular here in T-Town.

From the article -

" Bernanke is talking about stock, the reserve of bonds, but the markets run on flow of dollars."

That is the Zero Hedge mantra.

"Be right and sit tight"
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 8:24am
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Bye, bye carry trade. Hello

Bye, bye carry trade. Hello carry reversal, and implications of a long awaited market pullback against ZIRP. Hello beginning of a revaluation of the risk inherent in owning bonds and stocks.

What will happen to gold leasing rates? IAM

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 8:41am
indosil
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Breaking at Zero hedge

@AM,@Ilya could this be the trigger?? Bank Of China Declares Moratorium On Transfers, Online Banking; Counters Inoperable

From Caijing, google translated. We hope the gist of the narrative in Mandarin is far less scary, because if the translation is even remotely accurate, then all hell may be about to break loose in China.

From Caijing: Bank of China, Bank of suspension of transfers morning counters were unable to apply for online banking

Update: Customer service said, now silver futures transfer service has been fully suspended, online banking, the counter can not be handled, and now has the background system response, recovery time is not yet known

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-24/bank-china-declares-moratorium-transfers-online-banking-counters-inoperable

Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 9:12am
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Ok 30 year will top at

4.3% per a thin zone fill if we get there this go around.

I'll do some digging around to see where the stress might lie but I will say this about lease rates.

The banks have almost covered, so I do not see lease rates doing anything but following the current rise in global rates.

Remember everyone it is not necessarily a rise or a fall in anything that matters today. It is what the prevailing model has as accepted volatility. When the VAR runs into issues it is invariably due to increased volatility. This is where Kyle Bass is placing his bets.

Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 6:22pm Yug
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Yug wrote: Hi Argentus,

Yug wrote:

Hi Argentus, ...... What is the difference between redline projection and grey ones? ...

They are tested for correlation and persistence.

The red line has correlation which is between 6 and 20 times more persistent than the gray line. Which is to say that the gray line's correlation comes and goes again. But in accuracy, when the grayline is good, it's very accurate with a very high correlation at those times.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jun 24, 2013 - 6:25pm argentus maximus
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The redline has a lower

The redline has a lower correlation but while it has a looser fit against price, it is a more robust and less precise tool.

In trading I value robustness over precision.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 2:37am
ivars
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I apologize for multiple

I apologize for multiple margin call entries. I saved it once, from my Nexus pad.. somehow it became 7 times.

If there is a moderator out there who can delete at least 6 of them, I would appreciate that enormously.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 7:33am indosil
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No, that was some mistake but

No, that was some mistake but in fact its painful to recognize that finally play money has gone. I hanged in for 1 year 1 month, so bit longer then average beginner but its does not matter as the outcome was the same.

Now I have to think shall I ever risk my money once again in this game. Of course, i remember reading that every trader be it retail or professional has emptied his first account totally ( provided it had finite size- the only constraint- otherwise, the size does not matter- you lose your account starting from any size). So did I , but I am not pleased with the way I made (or did not make) my decisions. Not with the outcome, but the way of making decisions- as if I knew what was going to happen and did not need to calculate probabilities and risk/reward ratios.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 7:33am
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Lets see: last week of June

Lets see:

last week of June as per our longstanding forecast .. check

bond markets imploding ... check

banks blowing up .... awaited

Russia vs USA confrontation being arranged by leadership idiots .... check

new disease news discovered ... check

government scandal for this special occasion (surveillance) ...check

act of war .... awaited this week, or that armaments ship floating in two pieces counts as ....err ... awaited

civil confrontation ...HK, China, Russia snubs DOJ ... check

apathy interest in PM longs .... comments on Turdville Main St very slow this week ... check

national transfer of power ... Emir of Qatar abdicates, hands power to son ... check

markets all hammering on long term support levels and debating whether to breakthrough or reverse ... check

PMs looking like they are going to the sky or to zero ... check

After all that it seems almost unnecessary to post this chart of spot gold.

How frequently does this RSI (in red for non chartists) get to 30 or 70 and what tends to happen shortly after?

We are proximate to long term support (in green).

This is an anniversary of a significant weekly time cycle.

The 24th is now done, the day after tomorrow is the 27th, the 30th is over the weekend so we can move that to Friday 28th or Monday 1st July from a trading point of view

I also want to mention for those to may be in excitable places the first few days of July should be eventful. A human violence wave peak between 30th and 5th could cause some places to get "newsworthy".

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 7:51am
indosil
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@Argentus

Excellent Post-Check

Style of Narration-Hilarious-check

Chart Being Executed Accordingly-Check

Going Long on Friday/Monday-ummmm???

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:08am
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So the first week of July

brings us a bevy of data manipulated or not. We have ISM and jobs and in light of recent FED pronouncements these reports are simply huge. We have expiration in the metals today for options on futures but there really is not a great deal of open interest in option land. What is of note could be the delivery via Comex. That may bear watching.

Just a heads up on a fractal presented over at marketanthropology.com. In a word...YIKES!

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 9:50am
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Please Examine This!

The Five year chart of EEM the emerging market ETF is so bearish it's crazy.

There is a massive four year head and shoulder top.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&instt...

The open interest in JULY EEM puts is staggering

Tue, Jun 25, 2013 - 5:08pm
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BRIEFLY

Both counts for the S&P point toward 1598/1600.... The primary calls for a retrace to 50%/62% at 1579/1575 from minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C1 top.... the alt. also points up toward 1599 but with a deep pullback there after for the completion of major [4] at Y=1.23*W at 1544, 38% retrace of major [3] at 1527 or (c)=(a) at 1505. best, E.