I am an Iowa farmer and have many farmer connections across the state. The drought of 2012 has been brutal and I have been hearing some yield results if anyone is interested. Now, bear in mind, I am not going to make light of the crop losses that are being incurred, however, the worst of the perception of losses may have already been seen. In early August, many farmers I talked to had very low (I mean VERY low) expectations. A number of them were talking about 30-80 bushel/acre corn. Some of those people are harvesting and finding results more like 50-120 bushel/acre. Still sucks, but just not as bad. My only point is, the worst yields are likely to come out first. The later yields will gravitate toward more normal (less disastrous) numbers. This crop is incredibly short, but the losses may have been largely priced in. Crop insurance will keep most of the grain producers in the game for at least another year. My concern is for the small, independent livestock producer whose animal doesn't care about an insurance check, it just needs some feed. I guess what I'm saying is that its entirely possible that the 2012 high has been put in in the corn market, but be prepared for volatility through the winter/spring months as the world needs a good crop from South America followed by a good North American crop in 2013.
Thanks Doc for the post. Sorry I just now saw it.
I finished harvesting on Friday. I know many farmers are disappointed this year, but at the risk of being the a-hole of the midwest, my yields were very good. I was fortunate to catch a few extra showers in the late summer, and the biotech industry can crow about their progress. Every corn field did 200+ bushels/acre, and soybeans 60+bushels/acre. The point being, my previous post proved prescient (you know what they say about a blind squirrel finding the nut). I still believe that highs in 2012 are in, but the highs for the 2012 crop 'could' be ahead of us, depending on S. American weather and weather prospects for the U.S. in 2013. I got a couple inches of rain over the last 2 days, but prior to that, the ground was as dry as I've ever seen it. The Midwest needs the soil moisture recharged before the next crop year. It will probably happen, however, we all know markets trade perception and sell the news. Weather markets are volatile, and traders may find opportunities more plentiful during this coming winter due to the consequences of last year's drought. Anyway, just reporting boots on the ground in Iowa agriculture.
Big soybean acres planned for South America. With decent weather, this crop will be huge with prices trending lower. Like Doc said, the world needs a good crop out of S.A.
However, the market will be very quick to react if any weather issues develop.