Hurricane Isaac

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#1 Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 1:52pm
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Hurricane Isaac

I named this forum HURRICANE ISAAC because there is little doubt that the storm will soon strengthen to hurricane strength. Let's use this thread to link the latest forecasts and projections as well as local knowledge and observations.

God bless and good luck to all Louisiana/Mississippi/GulfCoast Turdites.

Here is the link to the latest GFS model run:

https://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/javaanim.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs&file=panel2&nplts=31&width=800&height=700

The GFS is the primary American computer model. The NAM and the ECMWF being two others consistently used.

The GFS, though, is the main one used to forecast upper air flow across and around the continental U.S. As this storm is soon to be "caught up" in the U.S. flow, the GFS should be the main model to follow for this storm.

An eye is currently trying to form. Once it forms, the storm should intensify. Perhaps even rapidly. How soon will the eye form, though? Mid-level shear may hinder it for another 24 hours or so. If it does, Isaac may landfall at just Cat2. But...if the eye forms today...the storm gets a bit of a head start, making Cat3+ a distinct possibility.

Katrina had once been a Cat5 but had weakened to Cat3 by the time it made landfall. This current trajectory of Isaac has long been noted as the "worst possible scenario" for a New Orleans landfall as the storm will use a long stretch of gulf to pile water directly into New Orleans and the lake. 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/predicting-katrina.html

PLEASE, IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS/FAMILY IN NEW ORLEANS OR THE SURROUNDING AREA, CALL THEM TODAY AND TELL THEM TO GET OUT NOW. 

Maybe this is just a false alarm and all will be well. What price do you pay for leaving today? A few days "vacation" in Arkansas? PLEASE LEAVE NOW.

Edited by: Turd Ferguson on Nov 8, 2014 - 5:01am
Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 1:58pm
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2:00 pm EDT advisory from the NHC

994mb is down 1 from the previous advisory.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242054.shtml

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:03pm
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accuweather calling for Cat 2 but...

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/northern-gulf-coast-prepare-...

There is concern that if Isaac tracks more westward toward New Orleans, La., than Pensacola, Fla.--essentially spending more time over water--the storm could become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) prior to landfall.

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:04pm
opticsguy
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This is a good model discussion

been following this board for years. A lot of pro mets here.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113367&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=4760

approximately one post per minute right now.

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:11pm
opticsguy
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time to prep

After Ike even Dallas had gasoline shortages. It could be worse this time. When the rain stops, I'm taking my jerry can's down to the Exxon station.

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:25pm
Jim G Believes
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Link to NWS discussion board

WITH QPF IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES EXPECTED. THESE VALUES
MAY INCREASE AS GUIDANCE FROM HPC COMES IN THIS AFTERNOON. 32

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=LA&prodtype=discussion

A youtube channel and this guy is good info on many topics - He is sounding the alarm as well.

Video unavailable
Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:25pm
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refineries and other related facilities...

...hopefully are not damaged to any great extent. Between the Venezuela explosion, this impending and probable hurricane and any possible refinery or production interruption, I would be surprised if we don't break $100 tomorrow. Hopefully something from MENA doesn't happen and we don't get a trifecta of negative events. $100 oil soon?

An epic lack of foresight, accuracy and rationale... https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/170246#comment-170246

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:33pm
LOUP-GAROU
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thanks Turd

I have family in the Thibodaux, Houma area and they are watching this storm closely as they have had rain, we here in N.E Arkansas are where we need the rain desperately. I suspect we may have company soon.

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:36pm
Big L
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Weather Underground

https://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

This is a good site, I've followed it for years. The discussion link fleshes out the graphics, see excerpt below.

The track forecast beyond day 2 has become problematic. Dynamical models depict the cyclone moving into a break in the subtropical ridge north of the Gulf Coast in about 72 hours. However there is a large spread among the more reliable track models. For example... the ECMWF forecast is about 300 N mi east of the GFS solution at day....... Read more at https://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201209.disc.html#QbobusfMTIv2kU7h.99
Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:39pm (Reply to #9)
BillAuAg
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GOES East

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 2:47pm
opticsguy
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getting uglier every run... HWRF. Direct hit cat 3 on NOLA

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 3:02pm (Reply to #11)
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Direct hit on LOOP will wipe

Direct hit on LOOP will wipe out 13% of oil delivery to the US for at least a week, maybe more depending on damage.

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 3:11pm
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Here is the Forbes link from the main thread

https://www.forbes.com/sites/weatherbell/2012/08/26/tropical-storm-isaac-should-rival-hurricane-katrina/

INVESTING
|
8/26/2012 @ 11:19AM |78,191 views

Tropical Storm Isaac Should Rival Hurricane Katrina

By Michael Barak, Joseph Bastardi and Alan Lammey

On August 24th, we warned on Forbes that Tropical Storm Isaac could pose a threat to energy markets and even rival Hurricane Katrina in its destructive power (Could Tropical Storm Isaac Turn Into Another Katrina?). While the computer models are still showing a substantial spread in solutions, it appears more likely that Isaac will make landfall somewhere near the Louisiana, Mississippi Gulf Coast. This track will provide the storm more time to intensify over the very warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.

The entire Gulf Coast from Lake Charles, LA to Panama City, FL should be aware of the latest forecast model guidance. The reason for this large spread is because the computer models are split between whether a trough will capture Isaac or not. As of 8AM Sunday morning, it appears Isaac will not be captured and as a result, a more westward track is most likely.

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 3:12pm
dgstage
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High/Low Pressure LInk

Anyone have a good map overlay of one?

dgfish
Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 3:23pm
Mr. Fix
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And this:

"When the student is ready, the teacher will appear."
Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 3:27pm
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Refreshable model composite

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 3:28pm
Nick Elway
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Piers Corbyn: New Orleans under less danger than Tallahassee

· Central US drought ends ON CUE confirming WeatherAction forecast 25 days ahead and NEW! Tropical Storm ISAAC END GAME FORECAST - New Orleans under LESS danger Tallahassee under more => Twitpic https://t.co/mUM2fI3I

From my favorite mad scientist at weatheraction.com He's calling for a more easterly track than conventional forecasters

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 3:30pm
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Relevant crude/$ headlines from the ZH story

*U.S. SAYS 24% OF OIL OUTPUT SHUT FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
*U.S. SAYS 8.2% OF NATURAL GAS OUTPUT SHUT FOR ISAAC
*U.S. SAYS 39 PLATFORMS EVACUATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
*U.S. SAYS 8 RIGS EVACUATED FOR TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 4:34pm
Big L
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Change is certain

I've lived on the west coast of FL for over 40 years. This is what I know about Hurricanes.

About half of them are fairly predictable, they'll keep pretty close to the forecast track and be about the forecast strength.

The other half move in mysterious ways. They'll make sudden, unexpected and un-forecasted changes in intensity, size, speed and/or direction. They can make hard right or left turns, and gain or lose speed and strength suddenly.

This particular storm appears to be one of the potentially erratic ones, and that's never good. It means we have to keep a very close eye out, even if it appears we'll be in the clear at this time.

Our plan is: be prepared, (Prepping!) then sit tight and watch closely for the changes as they develop. No sense in getting overly excited too early (assuming you're prepared), be cool and wait for about the 24 hr window.

Inside the 24 hr window they'll have a pretty good idea (within say 100 miles) of landfall. If you're within the 100 mile window of landfall, you'll need to make a decision rapidly and move quickly if you're going to get out. Be ready to book it.

That's about all I can tell you about living with hurricanes, other than buy one of those camping sunshower things as one of your preps. Living without a shower in 90 degree heat and 90 percent humidity gets real old real fast when you don't have water for a bath, and you won't want to use your drinking water to clean up.

I'll gladly eat cold beans out of can for dinner, if I can just get a quick shower and clean clothes once a day.

God Bless all those folks in the north gulf coast. We'll be keeping them in our thoughts and our prayers.

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 4:45pm
Zoltan
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Just Filled Up

Don't usually let the tank run low anyway but have been putting it off. The gas stations here are pretty good at jacking the price up on a minutes notice based on any "bad" news in the oil business and I think this will qualify. 

Have a call in to my brother in Florida for an on the ground weather update.

Z

Sun, Aug 26, 2012 - 5:18pm
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LSU site with IR

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