I named this forum HURRICANE ISAAC because there is little doubt that the storm will soon strengthen to hurricane strength. Let's use this thread to link the latest forecasts and projections as well as local knowledge and observations.
God bless and good luck to all Louisiana/Mississippi/GulfCoast Turdites.
Here is the link to the latest GFS model run:
The GFS is the primary American computer model. The NAM and the ECMWF being two others consistently used.
The GFS, though, is the main one used to forecast upper air flow across and around the continental U.S. As this storm is soon to be "caught up" in the U.S. flow, the GFS should be the main model to follow for this storm.
An eye is currently trying to form. Once it forms, the storm should intensify. Perhaps even rapidly. How soon will the eye form, though? Mid-level shear may hinder it for another 24 hours or so. If it does, Isaac may landfall at just Cat2. But...if the eye forms today...the storm gets a bit of a head start, making Cat3+ a distinct possibility.
Katrina had once been a Cat5 but had weakened to Cat3 by the time it made landfall. This current trajectory of Isaac has long been noted as the "worst possible scenario" for a New Orleans landfall as the storm will use a long stretch of gulf to pile water directly into New Orleans and the lake.
PLEASE, IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS/FAMILY IN NEW ORLEANS OR THE SURROUNDING AREA, CALL THEM TODAY AND TELL THEM TO GET OUT NOW.
Maybe this is just a false alarm and all will be well. What price do you pay for leaving today? A few days "vacation" in Arkansas? PLEASE LEAVE NOW.