Harvey Organ Should Be An Interesting Read Today

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Sat, Jan 25, 2014 - 6:11pm
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~~Harvey 25 Jan 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Saturday Harvey Report.

FDIC Bank Seizures

Friday, the FDIC seized The Bank of Union, El Reno, OK. DS: It looks like they finished off the independent banks in Georgia and are now going after the independent banks in Oklahoma and Texas.

Commitment of Traders

Gold: From an commercial standpoint this is bearish if you believe the data. The commercials went net short by 836 contracts.

Silver: The commercials went net long by 910 contracts and thus bullish (if you believe the data).

News and Commentary

Mark O'Byrne (GoldCore): Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) contracts rose to their highest since January 6 yesterday, when levels hit an 8 month high. Physical demand in China has fallen from elevated levels but is likely to remain very robust in the coming months. Some of the world's growing middle classes and the wealthy are moving their gold away from increasing financial repression in the western world to the Asian capitals of Hong Kong and Asia’s emerging precious metals trade hub, Singapore.

GoldCore: We concur with the view of many of our American and European clients that storing gold in Perth, Zurich, Hong Kong and increasingly Singapore is safer than in London, New York or elsewhere in the U.S.

Throughout history, gold has flowed to where it is most favorably treated. Today there is a growing move to own gold outside of the massively indebted and nearly insolvent western banking system and sovereigns.

Singapore is fast positioning itself as Asia’s global precious metals hub. In large part, this is due to Singapore’s very dynamic economy, Singapore fast becoming one of the world’s leading financial capitals, and the government’s support to position Singapore as the precious metals hub of the world. DS: People who send their gold to these remote places, even Canada, unless they expat and go with it, will never see it again. They might as well dump it in a trash can some place. They will be as likely to get it back.

Harvey: GOFO rates are all increasingly positive. GLD: Gold was unchanged and stands 790.46 tonnes. SLV: Silver was unchanged at 10,029.22 tonnes.

David Morgan (Silver Phoenix 500): We’re going to see more and more people wake up to the reality, that regardless of what the spin-doctors in the mainstream financial press say, things are not really better – there really isn’t a recovery going on – so what’s the solution? The solution starts with a change that you can make on a personal basis. For most people, this means acquiring hard assets that are totally outside the banking system. The people do not want things to stay the way they are and in fact the means of ending it are very simple. Much more simple than voting at the polls for politicians that know nothing and can be bought off within a week. Vote with your money. Buy silver.

Sean Brodrick (Investment U): Gold is moving up for four very good reasons and has an excellent chance to move higher still. 1) The Shanghai Gold Exchange, China’s biggest spot bullion market, delivered 2,197 tonnes to customers in 2013, compared with 1,139 tonnes in 2012. Now, with Chinese New Year looming at the end of the month, the Chinese are buying by the boatload. 2) Exchange-traded products (ETPs) that hold physical gold sold the metal hard in 2013. Their holdings fell 33% by the end of the year. Now, that tidal wave of selling seems to be done. In fact, Barclays reports that ETPs saw their holdings rise 7.4 metric tonnes on Friday. This is the largest daily inflow of gold into ETPs since Jan. 31, 2013. HSBC analysts saw this as pretty bullish. 3) Looking at a weekly chart of gold, you can see that the metal seems to be putting in a double bottom. 4) The recent rally comes despite the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it will reduce its monetary stimulus by $10 billion. More cuts are expected. Less free money going into the system should be bearish for gold. Instead, the Fed’s tapering is having the opposite effect. When something goes higher in the face of “bad” news, that’s often the most bullish indicator of all.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Davos (Financial Times, London): A top panel of experts in Davos has poured cold water on claims that the European crisis is over, warning that the eurozone remains stuck in a low-growth debt trap and risks being left on the margins of the global economy by US and China. Axel Weber, the former head of the German Bundesbank, said the underlying disorder continues to fester and region is likely to face a fresh market attack this year. "Europe is under threat. I am still really concerned. Markets have improved but the economic situation for most countries has not improved," he said that the World Economic Forum in Davos. Mr Weber, now chairman of UBS, said the European Central Bank's stress test for banks in November risks setting off a new sovereign debt scare, reviving the crisis in the Mediterranean countries. "Markets are currently disregarding risks, particularly in the periphery. I expect some banks not to pass the test despite political pressure. As that becomes clear, there will be a financial reaction in markets," he said. DS: IMO, AEP is a honeypot or controlled opposition. He is friend with Chris Powell and is aware of the evidence for PM manipulation, but he will not admit manipulation is real. I would agree that Europe goes first before America does, and it would not be surprising to find Europe weakening in 2014, since they likely will pull the plug in the first half of 2015.

Brien Lundin (Future Money Trends): The fact the gold returned to Germany was melted and recast is basically an admission that the Federal Reserve no longer had their Gold and had to actually get their Gold from new mining supply. It's an admission were not the original Central Bank Gold bars, same serial numbers etc. It’s an admission that at some point since then, that Gold has been used for other purposes. And in fact, throughout the 1990s central bank Gold reserves went out to bullion banks, which were able to borrow the Gold at around one percent interest or less, very low cost to sell the Gold, take that money, and then put it in to riskier assets. So the dirty little secret here, is that a significant portion of central bank Gold reserves, including the U.S. don’t exist now in their original bar form. In fact, they exist as IOU’s, paper IOU’s, from the very banks that were bailed out in 2008 by the Federal Reserve. So the Gold isn’t there, and the secret that they’re hiding is that it’s been replaced by IOU’s, and importantly those IOU’s are for Gold that was borrowed at much lower prices. To repay that Gold, these speculators in Western banks would have to pay much more, in either cash or Gold, to get even again. Or if that Gold would be put back in the vaults though, it would create tremendous demand on existing Gold supplies and draw the price through the roof. DS: I doubt if Germany ever gets its gold back. They probably got fiat in exchange, but they will not get the real deal. Even if the gold was delivered according to the supposed schedule, the system won't hold together long enough for them to get it back as the global economy probably will generally cease to function in 2015.

John Hathaway (via King World News): The shorts could not break the gold market overnight, and now the shorts are covering. Let’s see how far that takes this move. If this short-covering phase gains any momentum, we’re going to hear a lot more talk about the fact that paper gold is not the same thing as physical gold. For that to kick in, we need a trigger on the macro side -- additional weakness in stocks and worry about systemic risks. I could give you a list of 10 things that might trigger it. So it’s a two-step process, and what we are seeing right now is just part one with the paper shorts covering. When this rally really gets moving it’s going to be people saying, ‘I’ve just got to have the physical gold. I just don’t trust the Comex or anything with counterparty risks associated with bullion banks’ and that kind of thing. You need to see the oceans of money on the sidelines begin to rush back into the gold market. Gold has been abandoned by most people in the West. A serious correction in equities would trigger an explosive upside move in gold, but gold could break out at any time and really catch people off-guard, and I think that will ultimately be the case. The bottom line is that if I am short gold here, I am getting real nervous.

Andrew Maquire (via King World News): On the physical side this week, we saw large physical buyers, and they’ve been waiting for the Goldman Sachs ‘Promised Land.’ [DS: i.e. gold going to 800] But they entered the market once they saw the funds were wavering at the 50-day moving average. The physical gold buying that took place in London on Thursday can only be described as ‘stunning.’

Andrew Maguire on forces moving the gold price: Those close to the wholesale market know just how tight the physical market is, and they are happy to watch these heavily leveraged funds chasing price down in the paper markets. At the same time, the physical buyers are picking off the bullion at every single fix in London. This is an important point: These physical buyers know when to call it a day, and they move in to buy in size when the managed money, or ‘hot money,’ is vulnerable. And while this hot money is defending the technical levels, these physical buyers (which are mostly sovereigns) are able to buy into this selling pressure. But gold broke out yesterday, and we ended up with the strongest fix of the year in London. What was significant about this is that we saw 5,900 shortly-to-expire February Comex contracts, which is over 18 tons of Comex contracts, these are front-month futures and they were bought directly at the fix in order to meet what was reported to me as a 15-ton wholesale order. This was in addition to the normal physical buying. And it’s not rocket science to guess where this gold was headed. Look at what happened yesterday when there was a rumor about India relaxing the import restrictions on gold -- the physical buyers jumped in, in size, forcing the funds to give up the fight at $1,250 gold. Gold then popped up $30 into the afternoon fix in London, where it topped because there was such strong physical demand driving the market at that point. Now the guys on the sidelines no longer want to be on the sidelines, and these guys who are short are crapping themselves. So regardless of the fact that cutting the gold tariff was denied by the Indian finance minister, that rumor has already forced margin calls and forced a change in the behavior of the major market participants.

Gerald Celente (via King World News): They have to do something. This is the greatest Ponzi scheme in modern history that the Fed has pulled off by dumping all of this money into the system. And at some point they have to start pulling back. They have no plan. They are running blind. But they have to do something because it’s the only thing that’s fueling world growth. After the January Fed meeting, we believe that absent a real market shock between now and then, they are going to go in for another round of tapering. They have to. But what it’s doing, it’s unraveling all the emerging markets. DS: Celente gets it about the destruction of global currency and the global financial system, and I agree that TPTB roll with the punches and modify their plan as required, but I disagree with Celente that "They have no plan." They do have a plan, but it is not for financial recovery. The plan is to suck the wealth from the world, crash the fiat system and the economy that depends on it, and then seize possession of everything, including the population.

Alasdair Macleod (GoldMoney): The markets expect further reductions in QE in the coming months as bank lending continues to grow. For this to happen without tightening in the money markets, commercial banks will need to expand bank credit to compensate. In the event this is not forthcoming, rather than reverse the decision to taper QE, it is equally possible for the Fed to inject liquidity into the system through repos. Thus the replacement for QE could well turn out to be interest rate management by using repos to add liquidity and reverse repos to drain it. The Fed does not have to rely on QE to maintain overall monetary growth. DS: Macleod calculated the value of gold based on the money supply in dollars divided by the number of nominally market-available above ground ounces. Measured in 1933 Fiat Money Quantity dollars the price of gold adjusted for the increase in above-ground gold stocks today is approximately $6.72. However, the price of gold in 1933 was $35. That means gold is 7 times cheaper today in terms of the amount of money versus the amount of gold than it was in 1933. That FMR price does not account for the fact that gold was used as money in 1933, but today it is not. Macleod was apparently unable to relate silver to the money conditions in 1933 and instead shows a chart of silver normalized to the FMQ price of silver in 2000. In terms of 2000 FMQ silver prices, silver is down 20%.

Michael Pento (via King World News): We are about to witness the sad, but inevitable conclusion, from having a global economic system that is based on fiat currencies. This global experiment in which the quantity of money and credit is left to the discretion of just a few unaccountable individuals is about to come to a disastrous end. Trying to boost manufacturing and GDP growth by lowering the purchasing power of a currency does not “Beggar Thy Neighbor”, but instead bankrupts thyself. It does this by destroying the middle class, discouraging foreign direct investments, disincentives productivity gains and creates damaging imbalances in the economy. These imbalances eventually lead to intractable levels of debt, uncontrollable inflation and unmanageable debt service payments. The systemic practice of running economies on the spurious belief that inflation and currency devaluation is a necessary pursuit is about to reveal its devastating consequences on a global scale. I expect volatility in global markets similar to what was experienced during 2008 to occur in the middle of this year, as economies experience destructive swings between inflation and deflation. 2014 is going to be a historic year in which the existing global financial and monetary system will be pushed to the brink. This will bring the world one step closer to ending the current fiat currency regime, and this should also bring gold to the forefront of the world’s monetary system. DS: Again, the borrow, tax and spend plan being followed by the elites is not a spurious belief. It is a deliberate policy to bankrupt the nations and their people with the objective of destroying and enslaving them.

Michael Snyder: We are not at a “global crisis” stage yet, but things are getting worse with each passing day. For a while, I have felt that 2014 would turn out to be a major “turning point” for the global economy, and so far that is exactly what it is turning out to be. The following are 20 early warning signs that we are rapidly approaching a global economic meltdown:

#1 The looting, violence and economic chaos that is happening in Argentina right now is a perfect example of what can happen when you print too much money

#2 The value of the Argentine Peso is absolutely collapsing.

#3 Widespread shortages, looting and accelerating inflation are also causing huge problems in Venezuela

#4 In a stunning decision, the Venezuelan government has just announced that it has devalued the Bolivar by more than 40 percent.

#5 Brazilian stocks declined sharply on Thursday. There is a tremendous amount of concern that the economic meltdown that is happening in Argentina is going to spill over into Brazil.

#6 Ukraine is rapidly coming apart at the seams

#7 It appears that a bank run has begun in China

#8 Art Cashin of UBS is warning that credit markets in China “may be broken“ DS: Chinese citizens have increasingly been turning to "shadow banking" loan sharks. You know how that goes when you can't pay the 30% interest.

#9 News that China’s manufacturing sector is contracting shook up financial markets on Thursday

#10 Japanese stocks experienced their biggest drop in 7 months on Thursday.

#11 The value of the Turkish Lira is absolutely collapsing.

#12 The unemployment rate in France has risen for 9 quarters in a row and recently soared to a new 16 year high.

#13 In Italy, the unemployment rate has soared to a brand new all-time record high of 12.7 percent.

#14 The unemployment rate in Spain is sitting at an all-time record high of 26.7 percent.

#15 This year, the Baltic Dry Index experienced the largest two week post-holiday decline that we have ever seen.

#16 Chipmaker Intel recently announced that it plans to eliminate 5,000 jobs over the coming year.

#17 CNBC is reporting that U.S. retailers just experienced “the worst holiday season since 2008“.

#18 A recent CNBC article stated that U.S. consumers should expect a “tsunami” of store closings in the retail industry

#19 The U.S. Congress is facing another deadline to raise the debt ceiling in February.

#20 The Dow fell by more than 170 points on Thursday. It is becoming increasingly likely that “the peak of the market” is now in the rear view mirror.

And I have not even mentioned the extreme drought that has caused the U.S. cattle herd to drop to a 61 year low or the nuclear radiation from Fukushima that is washing up on the West Coast. In light of everything above, is there anyone out there that still wants to claim that “everything is going to be okay” for the global economy?

Alex Jones (InfoWars): I have had an email update from Pastor Lindsey Williams relating to what is about to happen around the world in relation to the global currency reset. Pastor Williams says “There are some strange things happening in the financial world in the past few weeks. I have been hesitant to risk my reputation on what I know [DS: Apparently because of the infighting, he doesn't know who will win]. Christine Lagarde, IMF personally came to the U.S. a few days ago. A gentleman who was in the meeting she had with some of the most powerful people in America said she was very angry and vowed to close some banks down if they did not cooperate immediately. We are in the midst of a big power struggle. People that I know in the financial world are extremely concerned because they expect “that one of the numerous things could happen any time”. He went on to say “The best advice I can give is – “If it is written on a piece of paper, it is worth the paper it is written on.

****************

Harvey's comments on Friday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed up $2.00 at $1264.30 (Comex closing time). Silver was down

25 cents at $19.74

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM

Gold: $1270.00

Silver: $19.93

Thursday, Jan 23rd Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/01/jan-24gld-and-slv-remain.html

Total, Jan (Silver), Feb (Gold), Mar (Silver) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI rose by 706 contracts as silver was up in price yesterday to the tune of 16 cents. The total OI now rests tonight at 140,216. contracts. The non active month of January saw it's OI fall by 134 contracts down to to 27. We had 143 notices served yesterday so we gained 9 contracts or an additional 45,000 oz of silver will stand for the January contract month. The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI fell by 591 contracts to 86,248.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest rose today by 10,175 contracts from 408,535 to 418,710 as gold was up $23.70 yesterday.In the non active front month of January the OI fell by 10 contracts down to 142. We had 20 notices served upon yesterday so we thus gained 10 contracts or an additional 1000 oz of gold will n stand for the January contract month. The next big active month for gold is February and here the OI fell by only 909 contracts to 128,788. We have 1 week before first day notice for the big February contract month which falls on Friday, Jan 31.2014.Last February we had over 40 tonnes of gold stand for delivery.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was excellent coming in at 43,468 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was also great at 56,328 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was good at 183,783 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent coming in at 259,579.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawal: nil oz.

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into CNT: 300,250.38 oz

ii) Into Scotia: 1,260,606.50 oz

Total customer deposit: 1,560,856.88 oz

We had 4 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware: 2097.386 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 29,684.31 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 2000.40 oz

iv) CNT: 15,017.80 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 39,799.896 oz

We had 0 adjustments today.

Registered (dealer) silver : 50.078 million oz

Total of all silver: 178.499 million oz.

In Gold:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 1 customer deposit:

i) Into Scotia: 4822.50 oz

Total customer deposits: 4822.50 oz

We had 3 major customer withdrawals: (and I just do not buy the exact round numbers in the withdrawal from JPMorgan and Scotia)

i) Out of JPMorgan: 321,500.000 oz or 10 tonnes or 10,000 kilobars

ii) Out of Scotia: 32,150.00 oz or 1 tonne or 1,000 Kilobars.

iii) Out of Brinks: 192.98 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 353,842.98 oz

Today we had 1 adjustment

from the Brinks vault: 5002.23 oz was removed from the customer account and this landed into the dealer account. This will become a settlement shortly.

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 87,071.35 oz or 2.708 tonnes.

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan's dealer account and 0 notices were issued from its client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 51 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan's dealer (house) account or 0% of the issuance and 0 notices were stopped by JPMorgan's customer account. It seems that all the stopping or receiving of contracts is from the house of Morgan right under the watchful eye of the regulators who do nothing as JPM's concentration in the paper gold Comex advances again.

The total dealer Comex gold rests tonight at 370,137.237 oz or only 11.513 tonnes of gold. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,463,277.467 oz or 232.139 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks (Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) resting at only 8.881 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 88,532.124 oz or 2.754 tonnes.

ii) HSBC: 109,981.67 oz or 3.421tonnes.

iii) JPMorgan: 8,707,135 oz or 270.828 tonnes.

Total: 8.881 tonnes.

Brinks' dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain tonight at 80,138.17 oz or 2.493 tonnes. A few months ago Brinks had over 13 tonnes of gold in its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 11 notices filed for 55,000 oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 51 notices served upon our longs for 5,100 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 1651 x 5,000 oz per contract to which I add the difference between the OI standing thus far : (27) minus the notices served today (11) = 8,335,000 oz standing.

In summary: amounts standing for silver

1651 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 8,255,000 oz + (27) OI standing for this month - 11 (notices served today)x 5000 oz = 8,335,000 silver ounces standing for the January contract month.

We gained an additional 45,000 silver oz standing for the January delivery month as somebody was in great need of silver.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in January, I take the total number of notices served (78) x 100 oz per contract to give us 7,800 oz so far tonight and add the difference between the remaining OI standing for January (142) and today's delivery notices (51) to get 16,900 x 100 oz which will stand in the January contract month.

In summary:

78 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this January month or 7,800 oz + (142) notices remaining to be served this month - 51 (notices served today) = 16,900 oz or.526 tonnes standing for the January gold month.

As you will see below we have only 8.881 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 11.373 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 11.512 tonnes. We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except small deposits from Brinks. Brinks settled finally on its tiny issuance from last week.

In Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 11.512 tonnes.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 1,050,456.437 (32.674) tonnes.

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 87,071.35 oz (2.708 tonnes).

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 8.881 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December being the busiest month for the gold calender. January is generally very quiet but we should see some gold transfer into JPMorgan from HSBC and Scotia for December settlements.

In going back over the data for the month of December and today, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

plus we had 2,700.600 oz ( jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia and 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes

plus 0.006 tonnes and last Thursday's 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments

Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and therefore 3.880 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes - 16.310 tonnes).

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 8.881 tonnes which must settle upon the 3.880 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 6.173 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 3.880 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

The fun will begin in February especially if we have a large amount of physical gold standing!!

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,246, down 1.97%. WTI March crude was 96.64 up 1.65. Brent crude was 107.88 up 1.07. The spread between Brent and WTI was 11.24 down 0.58. The 30 year US Treasury bond was down 0.0900 at 3.6500. The 10 year T-Note was down 0.0900 at 2.7400. The dollar was down 0.62 at 80.48. The PPT/Dow was 15879.11 down 535.33. Silver closed at 19.91 up 0.04. The GSR was 63.7368 up 1.3010 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 54.45 down 4.06 (6.94%). March wheat was up 3.00 at 565.250. March corn was up 4.50 at 429.50. April lean hogs were up 8.050 at 94.025. March feeder cattle were up 0.550 at 168.875. March copper was down 0.080 at 3.272. February natural gas was up 0.751 at 5.182. March coal was up 3.47 at 59.25.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Mon, Jan 27, 2014 - 10:40pm
DayStar
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2586
14106

~~Harvey 27 Jan 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Monday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

Egon von Greyerz (via King World News): An area which we haven’t discussed is the danger that is present in the emerging markets. There is a major crisis in a number of emerging markets right now. Let me just mention a few: In Argentina, they are in an absolute mess, and the peso fell 10% on Thursday -- to it’s lowest level in 12 years. If you take the Turkish lira, that plunged to new lows this week, and the Russian ruble is at the lowest level in 5 years. In South Africa, the rand is at the weakest since 2008. The currencies are also weak in Brazil and Mexico. But there are many other countries whose situation is extremely dire, like India, Indonesia, Hungary, Poland, the Ukraine, and Venezuela. What’s happening in the emerging markets is exactly what’s going to happen to all the major economies in the world. Will we see contagion now? Yes, it’s possible, but the Western central banks will probably try to defer this by doing what Lagarde of the IMF just suggested. She said that ‘deflation is disastrous for a global recovery.’ I’m mentioning these countries individually just to stress that this situation is extremely serious. It is also on a massive scale. In virtually all of these countries currencies are plunging and so are bonds, which is leading to much higher interest rates. And the cost of credit-default swaps in these countries is surging due to the increased credit risks. The effective increase of QE worldwide will not result in any improvement for the world economy. Instead, the global economy will continue to decline at a faster pace, as falling currencies create inflation, and, soon, hyperinflation in the West.

James Dines (via King World News): Three-D printing is like Xeroxing, except in 3-D. If you want a small object, for example, such as pliers, or even a guitar, you can just plug the printer in and overnight it lays down layer after layer, and in the morning you’ve got exactly what you wanted (whatever product) in the precise color. They’ve even made guns with (this technology). And food is coming next. The orthodontists are already using it, and they (the medical community) are already printing hearing aids. So this is going to have a tremendous impact on society because it’s going to restructure the entire field of manufacturing. They are already making custom-fitted clothing, shoes, and entire bodies of drones or aircraft. But they are also starting to do human body parts. This will lead into a radical extension of human life. They have already sprayed hepatocyte into liver tissue that has survived 40 days. Hopefully this could lead to a new liver at some point. They’ve already made a new jaw for a lady who lost it to cancer. They built it, and then sprayed her own cells on it, inserted it (into her through surgery), and she has a new jaw now. This field is called ‘bioprinting.’ Bioprinting is really going to revolutionize medicine. One of my old predictions is the coming ‘Age of Immortality.‘ Seventy years old is now considered the old ‘30’ from a hundred years ago. So life has been steadily extended, but this is going to be a restructuring -- a quantum leap. If they can start replacing kidneys and livers, and they are even working on a retina, this 3-D thing is going to be all over the world.

Harvey: Why the downdraft today? Options expiry was today and the crooks never disappoint us with their antics including blowing the price down at options expiration. GOFO rates were positive. GLD: Gold was unchanged at 790.46 tonnes. SLV: Silver was unchanged at 10,029.22.

Robert Fitzwilson (via King World News): This week could be explosive. The precious metals have been contained in a relatively tight range. The important numbers for gold and silver have been $1,250 and $21, respectively. Silver has remained in that corral, but gold finally broke above the $1,250 mark last week. The technicians are saying that $1,270 is the new critical level as a break above that area should cause the managed money shorts to panic. Under such a scenario, silver should quickly rise, perhaps dramatically. Then again, the entities doing the market manipulation might very well launch further attacks to force the paper prices of the metals lower. If one considers the self interest of the various parties, the benefit to the central banks of lower prices for precious metals has been diminished to the point that some believe lower prices run counter to their current objectives, one being increased inflation. For those who might have engineered lower prices to acquire cheap physical metal, reports suggest that much of what could have been scooped up is already gone and safely stored in sovereign and private vaults overseas. The global elite, wealthy and ordinary citizens in India and China are quickly grabbing what remains. [David Schectman reported, "JPMorgan has amassed between 100 - 200 million ounces or more of physical silver. Most of it is stored in London. My friend Trader David R would agree. He says he has seen the silver there himself. According to Butler, their plan is to force silver's paper price (Comex) lower and then buy the physical metal as cheaply as possible. They use the same technique on gold."] DS: Someone, probably JPM, dropped the price of silver 30 cents after Comex closed. The process of driving down paper price to acquire physical cheaply will end quickly, if the supply is indeed as tight as is being advertised. Silver will disappear before gold will, and they have spent the last several weeks beating gold down and drawing down the physical inventory. Probably that is why we didn't see any movement in silver inventories while they scooped up the gold stores. It won't take nearly as long to clean out the silver stocks. If they obviously disappear the supply, the price will explode upward inducing a short squeeze. That will attract momentum buyers, further increasing upward pressure. The performance of the PMs will attract hot money that is having trouble in "emerging" markets, and that will put further pressure on PMs. Cash dollars on the sidelines will be attracted to a profitable trade in the PMs, and that will add even more fuel to the fire. It could get to the point the Comex and LBMA are forced to settle in cash, because no offers to sell are available. If that happens, PM suppliers will start to avoid the Comex and the LBMA and go east. The SGE will then likely set the price, and it will be a cash and carry price.

Zero Hedge: The U.S. Mint, the world’s largest, sold 89,500 ounces so far this month. The Austrian mint that makes Philharmonic coins, saw sales jump 36 percent last year and expects “good business” for the next couple of months, Andrea Lang, the marketing and sales director of Austria’s Muenze Oesterreich AG, said in an e-mail. “The market is very busy,” Lang said. “We can’t meet the demand, even if we work overtime." The price for the Austrian mint’s 1-ounce Philharmonic gold coin slumped 27 percent last year, according to data from the Certified Coin Exchange. “It’s been a very bad year for gold,” said Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. “People who bought coins have lost value, but they are not looking at short-term gains, and hope springs eternal.” Tell that to China.

John Hathaway (via King World News): The bullion banks are extending credit to trading entities -- probably high-frequency traders, hedge funds, and the other usual suspects -- that don’t have any physical gold at all. These entities are just using the price of physical gold as an index -- it’s just like LIBOR. As far as I’m concerned, the more leveraged these entities are when things turn around, and then they realize they are obviously on the wrong side of the trade, the more explosive the upside will be. Some are asking, ‘How far can they stretch the rubber band?’ We thought 90 to 1 was pretty stretched, and yet here we are at 112 to 1. It ultimately comes down to the willingness of bullion banks to extend credit with very little connection to gold, other than using it as a reference point for profit and loss, to people with a huge amount of money so they can speculate. Let’s face it - the high-frequency guys who have been bashing gold for the last two years, if they decide to turn their trade around, they can drive gold to the moon. These entities are just looking for profit. They are a bigger part of the market today than they were back in 2011. They don’t think in macro-terms -- they just look at charts. If they are running more money today, and if they are caught wrong-footed on the gold trade, that can be extremely explosive for the price of gold. If we end up with the added fuel of various entities having the desire to own the physical gold instead of the paper contracts, that’s a double-barreled scenario that would guarantee an explosion in the price of gold.”

Ananthalakshmi: Thianpiriya and other analysts do not expect China to continue buying at the same pace in 2014, largely because they consider the huge drop in prices to be a one-off and because retailers and dealers are now well stocked. ANZ expects 900 tonnes of imports into China from Hong Kong in 2014, which would still be the second-highest level on record.

Michael Pento (via King World News): There is a good chance that the beginning of tapering will lead to a reversal of the trade to sell gold ahead of the news. But the major averages have priced in a sustainable recovery on the other side of QE, which will not come to fruition. For the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the end of QE will be especially painful. A unilateral removal of stimulus on the part of the Fed will send the dollar soaring [especially against emerging market currencies] and risk assets plunging -- you could throw in emerging market equities and any other interest-rate-sensitive investment on planet Earth as well. That prediction unfortunately came into fruition at the start of tapering, once the calendar turned the page to 2014. We are currently suffering through a huge correction in the equities of emerging-market economies. The threatened end of Fed stimulus has caused these currencies to plummet against the dollar, taking the emerging markets down for the ride. It’s not just emerging markets that will feel the pain. I predict the unwinding of the colossal yen carry trade in the near future.

Manoj Kumar (Reuters): India will review its tight curbs on gold imports by the end of March, the finance ministry said on Monday. Any easing of curbs could boost imports and might make smuggling less attractive. Revenue Secretary Sumit Bose said on Monday a review of gold curbs will come by the end of March. Gold imports have dropped by more than half in recent months under the restrictions and touched 21 tonnes in November. DS: Lifting restrictions on imports will be more difficult now, because many government officials are involved in the smuggling trade, and cutting tarrifs would impact their profits from the smuggling business. However, pundits are saying if the government does not relax restrictions, the ruling party will be voted out in the next election.

James Turk (via King World News): Gold looks determined to break free of resistance around $1,250, but it is still struggling to clear this hurdle. After the break above $1,250 on Thursday, there was some decent upside follow-through on Friday. I had hoped that today would be a good one too, even though option expiry begins tomorrow. With the ongoing manipulation it was too much to hope for. Time and again we have seen how the central planners and their bullion bank agents try to push gold lower on option expiry so that as many calls as possible expire out of the money. This week looks like it is not going to be the exception I was hoping for. The shorts have circled their wagons in another attempt to contain the upside breakout, at least until option expiry is completed by the end of the week. But I really do expect that in one of the upcoming option expiry weeks in the not-too-distant future we will see the opposite result. The bullion banks will put upward pressure on the gold price by buying gold in order to remain delta-hedged going into option expiry. That buying could then result in spectacular fireworks if the option holders, who are entitled to receive metal delivery under their option contract, actually ask for ounces of gold instead of dollars.

James Turk about a PM short squeeze: Evidence that a short squeeze has already begun can be seen in the way silver is trading compared to gold. Gold is outperforming, which is unusual at the resumption of any new uptrend beginning after a long correction -- which describes the current state of the precious metals markets. Normally silver leads because its market is always tighter than gold for the simple reason that the above-ground stock of available silver is much smaller than that of gold. The gold/silver ratio on Wednesday of last week - which is before gold broke over $1,250 - was 62.5. In two days the ratio jumped to over 64, so clearly silver was not keeping up with gold. The reason for this outcome is that a panic for physical metal normally starts with gold and then spills over into silver. So what we are seeing here is not the normal beginning of a new uptrend when the precious metals break out of a base. Instead, gold’s outperformance is an indication that the demand for physical metal is indeed taking hold and being reflected in the gold price relative to silver. Gold is still seen worldwide as the primary monetary safe haven, so not as many people are paying attention to silver. There are many reasons for this lack of attention. They include the fact that silver is still below its January 1980 high. Also, silver is now usually seen as an industrial metal, even though in reality silver is a gold substitute. Silver can provide the same safety that gold does because silver also is a tangible money outside the banking system. During times of panics, this usefulness as a safe haven makes the demand for silver as money greater than its demand for industrial uses. But this change in demand starts only once the squeeze in gold begins, and market participants start looking for other safe havens. But here’s the really interesting point. The physical market for silver is even tighter than gold, so once the money starts moving into silver, the silver price will not only start outperforming gold again, it will take off like a rocket. The key level to watch is a drop in the gold/silver ratio below 57.5. Once the ratio falls below that level, the odds suggest that the precious metals market will have turned in silver’s favor, and the silver rocket will have launched. This will mean the official end of the bear market in the metals and much higher prices for both gold and silver.

Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): The Fed has been cramming money into the system yet the “velocity” (turnover if you will) has been steadily dropping. The current situation is an illustration of “pushing on a string”. However, the Fed can force the banks to move their money now parked in the Fed by lowering interest rates to zero. This would force the banks to do “something” with their “parked” and idle free reserves. Using this last bullet would basically be an admission of total defeat and the currency itself would collapse in a hyperinflationary seizure as the banks are forced to “use” their tsunami of dollars. Another thing is, we are already seeing “cash” is actually beginning to “move.” Judging by the last 6 months or so, foreigners are spending their dollars on our real estate. That’s right, dollars are coming back home in exchange for real estate. It’s been reported that 40% of all U.S. sales were done with cash; in fact, last month saw 60% of all Florida closings done without any financing! I believe that foreigners are spending these dollars “while they still can. For China’s part, they have done two quite distinctive things over the last few years. They have signed many trade deals that exclude the use of dollars while at the same time done deals where they are the “purchaser” of real assets and in nearly all cases the contracted “payment” is in dollars. Does this sound like a nation hoarding dollars or one that is trying to bleed down their balances? Welocity which has been declining for over 15 years is a funny duck in that it can change course literally overnight. Since dollars are already repatriating, I don’t believe that it will take any huge event to change the current mindset. Hyperinflation (which in reality is a panic out of a currency) can literally happen overnight with little or no warning just as stock market crashes occur. Hyperinflation (which in reality is a panic out of a currency) can literally happen overnight with little or no warning just as stock market crashes occur.

Andrew Hoffman (via Financial Survival Network): The end game of currency implosion has begun. It might take two years or it might happen next week, but it has begun. If the Fed starts QE again, not only will the emerging markets fall as they are doing now, but both the major currencies and the minor currencies will plunge against things of value. The tiny increase in interest rates has caused home sales to roll over. New home sales just fell 11% in one month. The Fed will have to accelerate money printing to get interest rates back down and revive the housing market. There is nothing better for gold than falling real interest rates.

Andrew Hoffman (Miles Franklin): the horrific effects of the past five years of debt accumulation and currency debasement are being witnessed; and this time around, Central banks have neither the balance sheets nor public confidence to expand them further. This is why calls for expanded capital controls, bail-ins and other Draconian measures are proliferating – including this weekend’s Bundesbank call for a universal “wealth tax”; Japan’s grab at “dormant” bank accounts; and HSBC’s temporary ban of large cash withdrawals, following an analyst report opining it has a £70 billion capital shortfall; and why more importantly, such events are decidedly not “one-off events,” but the wave of the future. Moreover, the Western gold suppression scheme is finally starting to go mainstream – as we discussed last week; as not only did the President of Germany’s top financial regulator discuss it last week, but even the cheerleading Financial Times wrote about it. This reality couldn’t be more clear here in the States; as not only is the COMEX’s registered inventory down to just 375,000 ounces – with 125,000 ounces still standing for delivery from the (in my mind, defaulted) December contract – but on Friday, JP Morgan’s “eligible” customer inventory had its largest withdrawal ever. Better yet, this Friday is “first notice day” for the February gold contract, which still has open interest representing 13 million ounces; and very likely, will terminate with more PHYSICAL delivery notices than the sitting registered inventory. In other words, the odds of a February default are sky high; and even if TPTB finagle enough metal to give themselves a “stay of execution,” it’s highly unlikely they’ll survive 2014 without being overrun. In the words of Andrew Maguire: The physical gold buying that took place in London on Thursday can only be described as stunning.

Andrew Hoffman on need vs. want: Several pieces of anecdotal evidence of price deflation, which when considered cumulatively, demonstrate exactly why the economy is doomed. Take the article, for example, demonstrating how low end “casual dining” chains like Olive Garden and Applebee’s are experiencing dramatic sales declines, atop McDonalds’ announcement last week that same store sales just turned negative. The author can sugar coat the situation all he wants – in this case, citing ‘changing consumer dining habits’; but the fact of the matter is, people have less money to spend – and thus, are no longer eating out. And how about the Girl Scouts – one of America’s oldest, proudest organizations; which for all the good it accomplishes, is supported by a massive corporate staff of 400, in lavish digs on New York City’s trendy 5th Avenue. Girl Scout cookies have been a staple of American fund raising for decades; but unfortunately, the weak economy has dramatically weakened alumni charity contributions, causing “HQ” to put a far greater emphasis on cookie sales. HQ now required to purchase full cases of cookies from headquarters, with no ability to return unsold goods; and furthermore, “rewards” points are now awarded at far higher sales levels. This frankly, is no different than what Delta and United now do with frequent flyer miles; or for that matter, Costco with its Amex rewards card. Conversely, cell phone prices and plans are falling dramatically. Sure, I need my cell phone to do my business; but for the most part, most of what I use it for falls under the category of want. As for my home price, it has stubbornly held at elevated levels due to Wall Street’s free money from the Federal Reserve; which has funneled into various vulture and “buy to rent” parasites. Unfortunately, underlying “shadow inventory” has never been higher; and thus, with rising interest rates wreaking havoc on the housing sector (note this morning’s report of an 11% sequential plunge in new home sales), “deflationary” pressures appear set to win the day – a la 2008. Still think the Fed will continue “tapering?”

Mark O'Byrne (GoldCore): Risks posed to depositor's cash were seen in the UK after HSBC imposed cash withdrawal limits on clients and Lloyds ATM machines and debit cards experienced difficulties. The Financial Times has told investors that they should act like the German Bundesbank and "demand physical gold" and warned that gold price "manipulation" could end "catastrophically". There’s surely no chance that the Fed’s little delivery difficulty has anything to do with the cat’s-cradle of pledges based on the gold in its vaults? But one day the ties that bind this pixelated gold may break, with potentially catastrophic results. So if you fancy gold at today’s depressed price, learn from Buba and demand delivery.

Bloomberg: Gold has rebounded from a six-month low on Dec. 31 as signs of increased physical demand in Asia countered expectations that Fed policy makers, who meet Jan. 28-29, will continue paring the central bank’s bond-buying program. In China, which probably overtook India as the biggest consumer last year, volumes for the benchmark contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange exceeded the fourth quarter’s daily average of about 11,525 kilograms every day since Jan. 6. While Austria’s Muenze Oesterreich AG mint is running 24 hours a day to keep up with demand for gold coins, holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion resumed a decline last week, contracting 0.6 percent to 1,739.01 metric tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Gold is yet to see a follow through in terms of ETP flows last week,” Barclays Plc analysts including Suki Cooper wrote in a note today. “This lack of interest suggests to us that gold’s gains are likely to be short lived.” DS: Mints are running 24/7 to keep up with demand, but ETP demand declines. Yep. That makes perfect sense. People are getting out of paper and into physical. What is going to happen when the gold runs out?

Zero Hedge: First HSBC bungles up an attempt at pseudo-capital controls by explaining that large cash withdrawals need a justification, and are limited in order "to protect our customers" (from what - their money?), which will likely result in even faster deposit withdrawals, and now another major UK bank - Lloyds/TSB - has admitted it also is experiencing cash separation anxiety manifesting itself in ATMs failing to work and difficulties in paying using debit cards. Sky reports that customers of Lloyds and TSB, as well as those with Halifax, have reported difficulties paying for goods in shops and getting money out of ATMs. All three banks are under the Lloyds Banking Group which said: "We are aware that some customers are unable to use their debit cards either to make purchases or to withdraw money from ATMs. "We are working hard to resolve this as swiftly as possible and apologize for any inconvenience caused." What is going on is known as a "glitch" for now, and perhaps as "preemptive planning" depending on who you ask. Sure, in a few months in may be called a bail-in (see Cyprus), but we will cross that bridge when we get to it.

Koos Jansen (In Gold We Trust): Again an astounding trading week on the SGE; from January 13 – 17, 2014 physical withdrawals from the SGE vaults accounted for 60 tons of gold, year to date 159 tons. Although withdrawals are down 25 % from the previous week, the amount is still well above weekly global mine production. This strong demand could be related to the Chinese Lunar year, which is celebrated on January 31, 2014. SGE withdrawals in the first three weeks were up 60 % compared to the same period in 2013. A friend of mine who is traveling through Asia at the moment sent me a text message yesterday, it stated: On three separate occasions I met with Chinese men who told me with a big smile China is buying A LOT of physical gold with printed dollars; they don't understand why the rest of the world is just watching this happening. These people are positive the price of gold is going to rise substantially.

****************

Harvey's comments on Monday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed down $0.70 at $1263.70 (Comex closing time). Silver was up 3 cents at $19.77

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM

Gold: $1256.00

Silver: $19.64

Friday, Jan 24th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/01/jan-27gld-and-slv-constantgold.html

Total, Jan (Silver), Feb (Gold), Mar (Silver) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI rose by 132 contracts as silver was down in price yesterday to the tune of 25 cents. The total OI now rests tonight at 140,348. contracts. The non active month of January saw it's OI fall by 11 contracts down to to 16. We had 11 notices served on Friday so we neither gained nor lost any contracts of silver will not stand for the January contract month. The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI fell by 572 contracts to 85,676.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest fell today by 6623 contracts from 418,710 to 412,077 as gold was up $2.00 on Friday.In the non active front month of January the OI fell by 58 contracts down to 84. We had 51 notices served upon on Friday so we thus lost 7 contracts or an additional 700 oz of gold will not stand for the January contract month. The next big active month for gold is February and here the OI fell by 16,880 contracts to 111,908. We have less than 1 week before first day notice for the big February contract month which falls on Friday, Jan 31.2014.Last February we had over 40 tonnes of gold stand for delivery.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was excellent coming in at 40,537 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was also great at 48,716 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was excellent at 241,886 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was also excellent coming in at 208,710.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

We had 1 customer deposit:

i) Into CNT: 593,571.600 oz

Total customer deposit: 593,571.600 oz

We had 4 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware: 2000.000 oz (another perfectly round number)

ii) Out of Scotia: 60,637,700 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 178.000 oz (another perfectly round number)

iv) CNT: 40,292.70 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 109,108.408 oz

We had 0 adjustments today.

Registered (dealer) silver: 50.078 million oz.

Total of all silver: 178.983 million oz.

In Gold:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 0 customer deposits:

Total customer deposits: nil oz

We had 1 customer withdrawal:

i) Out of Scotia: 546.55

Total customer withdrawals: 546.55 oz

Today we had 0 adjustments.

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 87,071.35 oz or 2.708 tonnes.

Today, 13 notices were issued from JPMorgan's dealer account and 0 notices were issued from its client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 14 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan's dealer (house) account or 0% of the issuance and 0 notices were stopped by JPMorgan's customer account. It seems that all the stopping or receiving of contracts is from the house of Morgan right under the watchful eye of the regulators who do nothing as JPM's concentration in the paper gold Comex advances again.

The total dealer Comex gold rests tonight at 375,139.467 oz or only 11.668 tonnes of gold. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,462,730.857 oz or 232.122 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks (Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) resting at only 8.881 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 88,532.124 oz or 2.754 tonnes.

ii) HSBC: 109,981.67 oz or 3.421tonnes.

iii) JPMorgan: 8,707,135 oz or 270.828 tonnes.

Total: 8.881 tonnes.

Brinks' dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain tonight at 85,140.4 oz or 2.648 tonnes. A few months ago Brinks had over 13 tonnes of gold in its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 14 notices served upon our longs for 1,400 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz today. To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 1651 x 5,000 oz per contract to which I add the difference between the OI standing thus far : (16) minus the notices served today (0) = 8,335,000 oz standing.

In summary: amounts standing for silver

1651 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 8,255,000 oz + (16) OI standing for this month - 0 (notices served today)x 5000 oz = 8,335,000 silver ounces standing for the January contract month. We remained constant from Friday.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in January, I take the total number of notices served (92) x 100 oz per contract to give us 9,200 oz so far tonight and add the difference between the remaining OI standing for January (84) and today's delivery notices (14) to get 16,200 x 100 oz which will stand in the January contract month.

In summary:

92 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this January month or 9,200 oz + (84) notices remaining to be served this month - 14 (notices served today) = 16,200 oz or.504 tonnes standing for the January gold month.

As you will see below we have only 8.881 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 11.53 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 11.66 tonnes. We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except small deposits from Brinks. Brinks settled finally on its tiny issuance from last week.

In Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 11.66 tonnes.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 1,050,456.437 (32.674) tonnes.

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 87,071.35 oz (2.708 tonnes).

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 8.881 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December being the busiest month for the gold calender. January is generally very quiet but we should see some gold transfer into JPMorgan from HSBC and Scotia for December settlements.

In going back over the data for the month of December and today, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

plus we had 2,700.600 oz ( jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia and 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes

plus 0.006 tonnes and last Thursday's 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments

Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and therefore 3.880 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes - 16.310 tonnes).

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 8.881 tonnes which must settle upon the 3.880 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 6.173 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 3.880 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

The fun will begin in February especially if we have a large amount of physical gold standing!!

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,217, down 2.33%. WTI March crude was 95.82 down 0.82. Brent crude was 107.03 down 0.85. The spread between Brent and WTI was 11.21 down 0.03. The 30 year US Treasury bond was up 0.0300 at 3.6800. The 10 year T-Note was up 0.0300 at 2.7700. The dollar was up 0.02 at 80.50. The PPT/Dow was 15837.88 down 41.23. Silver closed at 19.69 down 0.22. The GSR was 63.8141 up 0.0773 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 53.55 down 0.90 (1.65%). March wheat was down 1.75 at 563.500. March corn was up 2.25 at 431.75. April lean hogs were up 0.275 at 94.300. March feeder cattle were down 0.075 at 168.800. March copper was down 0.013 at 3.259. February natural gas was down 0.335 at 4.847. March coal was up 0.00 at 59.25.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Tue, Jan 28, 2014 - 9:10pm
DayStar
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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14106

~~Harvey 28 Jan 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Tuesday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

Richard Russell (via King World News): Interestingly, fiat currencies around the world are sinking. There’s only one currency that represents safety, and that currency is gold. Which, by the way, is higher today. I expect to see further semi-crash action in the days ahead, as the primary bear market resumes. I think investors will remain hopeful as long as this decline remains this side of 10%. But if the decline surpasses 10%, I believe we will see panic action as investors realize that this is not a correction, but a bear market. My advice is to stay out of this bear market and hold only gold bullion and a limited supply of US dollars.

Jim Brown (Option Investor): Don't look now but the physical gold shortage is growing. Everyone knows that JP Morgan is one of the biggest gold holders on the planet. They store gold for themselves and others. On Thursday JPM reported the single largest withdrawal in history at -321,500 ounces. Actually that was a tie with December 13th, 2012 when exactly 321,500 ounces were also withdrawn. Registered gold in JPM vaults has fallen to the lowest level in history at 87,000 ounces. Registered gold at all Comex warehouses has hit a new low at 400,000 ounces. Comex claims there is a huge 92 owners per registered ounce today. Registered ounces are available for delivery to settle futures contracts. In other words the registered ounces are all that is backing up the existing futures contracts. Since the majority of futures contracts are never held until the delivery date there are tens of thousands more contracts then actual gold. If everyone suddenly began demanding delivery of the gold referenced by the futures contracts we would be in serious trouble. On January 17th there were roughly 500,000 registered ounces. At that time there were 111.6 owners per ounce. There are currently 41.309 million ounces being traded through futures contracts. This is "paper gold" not real gold. Where else but America could we be trading 41 million ounces of futures against 500,000 registered ounces? Obviously if only a fraction of the holders of those futures contracts began demanding delivery the price of gold would be much higher. We are currently seeing all time lows in registered gold and all time highs in claims against that gold. What is wrong with this picture?

Stephen Leeb (via King World News): The flow of gold from West to East, it is unprecedented in all of human history. All the while pundits in the West say this can’t continue because China is going to collapse. So the Western pundits say, ‘This accumulation of gold makes no sense whatsoever.’ But nothing could be further from the truth. History doesn’t lie. And if you look at the history of the United States and the history of the world’s economy while we were on a gold standard, post World War II through the early 1970s, those were years of great prosperity. Every day we get closer to the takeoff point for the price of gold. Gold may have dips, but you have to own it. The next 400% to 500% move in gold is going to be to the upside as the price of gold hurdles toward the $10,000 level. It’s just a question of when this gold move will happen, not whether. DS: The bankers control the complete global financial system. We hear old timers like Richard Russell and Jim Sinclair talk about how the market is bigger than the bankers. I don't believe it. The bankers have crafted a control system that sets prices. They can make price do what they want. They will eventually have to deal with the supply distortions and lack of supply that comes about as a result of their price controls, but they set the price in just about everything. The system will basically last as long as they intend for it, and then they will collapse it. Their objective is to eventually eliminate free men anyway. They plan to create transhumans and rid the world of the seed of woman. Satan seems to believe he can in this way invalidate God's promise to Eve that her seed would crush the head of the seed of the serpent. We are seeing the final acts in the great saga of good versus evil play out right before our eyes. Not too far ahead are the times of which Jesus spoke "For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be." God help us all, for if He does not, we will all surely perish.

Harvey: Options expiry is now over and the bankers still whack trying to prevent the long holders of precious metals contracts from taking delivery. GOFO rates are all still positive. London good delivery bars are still in short supply. GLD: Gold was unchanged at 790.46 tonnes. SLV: Silver was unchanged at 10,029.22 tonnes.

Ronald-Peter Stoferle (via King World News): The key conclusion of our research is that, due to the fractional reserve banking system and the dynamics of the ‘monetary tectonics,’ inflationary and deflationary phases will alternate in the foreseeable future. Gold, being a monetary asset in the view of Austrian economics, tends to rise in inflationary periods and declines during times of disinflation. The key takeaway for investors is to position themselves accordingly and consider price declines as buying opportunities for the coming inflationary period. How come one can be so sure that inflation is coming? Consider that the government must avoid deflation; it is a horror scenario for the following reasons: 1) Price deflation results in a real increase in the value of debt and a nominal decline in asset values. Debt can no longer be serviced. 2) Price deflation would lead to massive tax revenue declines for the government due to a declining taxable base. 3) Deflation would have fatal consequences for large parts of the banking system. 4) Central banks also have the mandate to ensure ‘financial market stability.’ 2014 will be a crucial year for investors. The harsh reality is we believe at some point central banks will have to take aggressive measures to counteract the deflationary pressures that we are facing at the moment.

Mike O'Byrne (GoldCore): Turkey, South Africa, Ukraine, Venezuela and especially Argentina have all seen sharp falls in their currency. Those with an allocation to gold have again protected their investments and savings. Eurozone governments vulnerable to insolvency such as France, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Ireland should impose a “wealth tax” on their citizens, Germany’s Bundesbank proposed yesterday. The German central bank raised the idea of an emergency “capital levy” in its monthly report. The Bundesbank said that the levy would have to be a one-off “imposed in conditions of extraordinary national crisis”, in order to limit negative consequences for investment, and potential capital outflows. It acknowledged that a nation in crisis would have difficulty making a convincing case to depositors and investors that any such levy would be a one-time measure. We have argued consistently for the last 10 years that investment diversification is vitally important in order to protect and grow wealth. The very real likelihood of bail-ins means that savings diversification has to be considered. DS: This is not the time for wealth diversification. This is the time for protection of capital. During this 4th turning the old order is being ushered out and replaced with a new one. Richard Russel has part of the right idea: stand aside in cash/gold and watch what happens. Cash is only a short term solution. Eventually, all paper will be worth the paper it is printed on, and digits will be worth whatever an electron is worth at rest when all ones and zeros have become just zeros. Gold/silver is the long term answer for wealth preservation. Do not leave gold in a vault with a third party. You will never see it again.

Silver Doctors: Financial crisis fears are spiking this afternoon as one of Russia’s largest 200 banks by assets, ‘My Bank’ has reportedly halted all cash withdrawals for one week. Officials of My Bank have refused to comment after news of the bank halting all withdrawals was leaked early Monday by a call center employee. On the heels of HSBC refusing to allow customers to withdraw funds without an explanation of what they intended to use the funds for, and JP Morgan’s initiation of capital controls in October when the bank banned all outgoing international bank wires, the My Bank news is simply the latest sign that something is very, very wrong with the banking system. Just in case Russians have any thoughts of moving their rubles into Bitcoin, the Russian Central Bank warned Russians Monday against holding the Bitcoin electronic currency, ‘as they could be tied to gangs into money laundering and terrorist financing.‘ Got Phyzz??

The Economic Times: Finance minister P Chidambaram on Monday acknowledged a spurt in gold smuggling in the wake of higher duties and other curbs on the import of the yellow metal into the country. While estimating illegal shipments of up to 3,000kg in certain months — a record by all accounts — the minister justified the restrictions, citing high current account deficit (CAD) but indicated that some of the tightening may be eased in the next few months.

Greg Hunter (USAWatchdog.com): Rising interest rates are another possible problem in 2014. Fitts, who was a former Wall Street investment banker, says, “I think there is going to be tremendous pressure to keep those rises managed. Now, let me underscore something. We have never ever in the history of civilization managed rising rates when we have had a huge book of interest rate swap derivatives. . . . If interest rates start to move up quickly, we have no idea what could happen to that interest rate book. . . . It’s literally like a nuclear bomb that could go off. . . . If they can’t prevent the rapid rise, I think we will have war because that is the only way you can force the intercession you need to keep a lid on things. I think gold is in a primary trend up, but I think that primary trend has to be reproved. I doubt it will be reproved in 2014. It will probably take longer. I think there is tremendous pressure to keep the gold price down so the big central banks and big financial institutions can cover their shorts. In the long run, you have enormous global demand from the emerging markets.

Tyler Durden: On Friday, when we remarked on the biggest recorded withdrawal from the JPM gold vault, we said: "Something tells us the next few days will see matching withdrawals from JPM's gold vault, which at last check was officially owned by the Chinese." As it turns out we were absolutely correct: according to the just released update from Comex, on Monday the infamous gold vault located below 1 C(hina)MP saw an identical withdrawal of 321,500 ounces, matching the record withdrawal, and amounting to 28% of all JPM gold in storage. Adding to Friday's drop, this means that a record 47% of JPM's gold has been withdrawn in a few short days: a trend we are certain will continue until the total holdings of the vault drop to new record lows.

Zero Hedge: The bottom line regarding gold demand comes from Jeremy East, who moved to Hong Kong from London in June and is head of metals trading at Standard Chartered Plc. "Many of the positive drivers for gold prices in the past five years have started to disappear. At the same time, we have seen a significant increase in physical demand for gold in Asia, especially China. The expectation is that Asia is going to play a much bigger role for setting the international prices for gold and also for the whole metals complex going forward." If and when the PBOC does announce the real amount of gold reserves it has accumulate over the past five years which are now order of magnitude above the official ~1000 tons of gold last disclosed in 2009, the Western businesses may then realize what they have done. Of course Asia will then have a larger voice in setting gold prices, but for now Asia is counting its lucky stars that courtesy of ETFs, the BIS and various central and private banks desperate to make their worthless pieces of fiat paper appear valuable by manipulating the price of gold lower, it can accumulate gold at such a torrid pace and at such blue light special prices. It knows very well this won't last. However, in the meantime it will remove as much deliverable product from the paper gold market that when the real delivery demands begin (wink wink Bundesbank), then the real fun starts.

Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): The processes of refining and minting had to have been built over a number of many years and assuredly the level of capacity was ample otherwise capitalism would have "built more" if there was a buck to be made. There wasn't, there wasn't not so much because of the demand side but because of the levels of "supply" from the world's mines and scrap supply. This is so because a refinery or mint can only create product with actual supply of raw material...which has to come from somewhere. Please ask yourself "where" this might be from? While asking yourself this question, please also contemplate the question "if 'something", anything is withdrawn from a hoard...does not that hoard shrink"? Briefly, the bottom line is what it has been all along...how much metal do the central banks really have left? Not "what do think they have left?, how much vaulted gold (by the NY Fed) is ACTUALLY left" because this is the ONLY place that the excess supply could have come from? How do I know this? Simply because of the sheer size and amounts that the mints and refineries are processing...there are no other "hoards" in the world large enough to supply what is now being processed.

Zero Hedge: Mykola Azurov, the prime minister of Ukraine, (and his cabinet) has resigned. The move comes as the government faced losing a no confidence vote and being stripped off their power. It seems the opposition (pro-Europe) are gaining momentum once again as the Ukraine also repealed the controversial anti-protest laws that created more tension last week. The Russians are not amused and have warned that they may reconsider the $15 billion bailout offer if the current government is removed. The Ukrainian Hryvnia is continuing its collapse on this news and has dropped towards record lows.

Harvey: In the last 24 hours we have witnessed two suicide deaths from bankers. (ZH) Early this morning, at JPM's 33 story high London Headquarters located at 25 Bank Street in Canary Wharf, a 39 year-old man jumped to his death after falling onto a 9th floor roof. (Bloomberg) William Broeksmit, a recently retired executive at Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) who worked at Merrill Lynch in the 1990s with Anshu Jain, now Deutsche Bank’s co-chief executive officer, has died. He was 58. He died on Jan. 26 at his home in London, according to a memo to staff obtained by Bloomberg News. Deutsche Bank spokesman Michael Golden confirmed the contents, which didn’t give a cause of death. When asked by telephone about Broeksmit’s death, London police confirmed in a statement that a 58-year-old man was found hanging at an Evelyn Gardens address on Jan. 26. Police said they aren’t treating the death as suspicious. Golden declined to comment on the police statement. Harvey: Is this just the first of many banker suicides, if indeed this was a suicide? DS: If these suicides were death by their own hands, it was probably because they were given the choice of suicide or death by torture, but probably these were probably not suicides and they were murdered and the police were told to keep quiet.

****************

Harvey's comments on Tuesday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed down $12.80 at $1250.80 (Comex closing time). Silver was down 29 cents at $19.48.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM:

Gold: $1257.00

Silver: $19.58

Monday, Jan 27th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/01/jan-28gld-and-salv-constantanother-huge.html

Total, Jan (Silver), Feb (Gold), Mar (Silver) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI rose by 1530 contracts as silver was up in price yesterday to the tune of 3 cents. The total OI now rests tonight at 141,878. contracts. The non active month of January saw it's OI rise by 5 contracts up to to 21. We had 0 notices served on yesterday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz of silver will stand for the January contract month. The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI rose by 732 contracts to 86,408.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest fell today by 7049 contracts from 412,077 to 405,028 as gold was down $0.70 yesterday.In the non active front month of January the OI fell by 18 contracts down to 66. We had 14 notices served upon yesterday so we thus lost 4 contracts or an additional 800 oz of gold will not stand for the January contract month. The next big active month for gold is February and here the OI fell by 28,077 contracts to 83,831. We have less than 1 week before first day notice for the big February contract month which falls on Friday, Jan 31.2014.Last February we had over 40 tonnes of gold stand for delivery.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was good coming in at 34,064 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was also good at 40,834 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was excellent at 235,565 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was also excellent coming in at 242,052.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into CNT: 67,451.30 oz

ii) Into Scotia; 799,484.710

Total customer deposit: 866,936.01 oz

We had 2 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware: 14,535.692 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 300,417.30 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 314,952.992 oz

We had 1 adjustment today:

i) Out of the Delaware vault: 246,242.119 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account and thus this is probably a settlement.

Registered (dealer) silver: 49.831 million oz

Total of all silver: 179.535 million oz.

In Gold:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 0 customer deposits:

Total customer deposits: nil oz

We had 1 huge customer withdrawals:

i) Out of JPMorgan: 321,500.00 oz (exactly 10 tonnes or 10,000 kilobars)

Total customer withdrawals: 321,500.000 oz.

This is the second withdrawal by JPMorgan of exactly 10 tonnes. If kilobars no doubt this would be heading straight for China. Now the question is how much gold is JPMorgan obligated to supply sovereign China.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in January, I take the total number of notices served (138) x 100 oz per contract to give us 13,800 oz so far tonight and add the difference between the remaining OI standing for January (66) and today's delivery notices (46) to get 15,800 x 100 oz which will stand in the January contract month.

In summary:

138 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this January month or 13,800 oz + (66) notices remaining to be served this month - 46 (notices served today) = 15,800 oz or.491 tonnes standing for the January gold month.

As you will see below we have only 8.881 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 11.53 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 11.66 tonnes. We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except small deposits from Brinks. Brinks settled finally on its tiny issuance from last week.

In Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 11.66 tonnes.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 728,956.437 (22.674) tonnes.

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 87,071.35 oz (2.708 tonnes).

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 8.881 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December being the busiest month for the gold calender. January is generally very quiet but we should see some gold transfer into JPMorgan from HSBC and Scotia for December settlements.

In going back over the data for the month of December and today, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

plus we had 2,700.600 oz ( jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia and 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes

plus 0.006 tonnes and last Thursday's 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments

Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and therefore 3.880 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes - 16.310 tonnes).

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 8.881 tonnes which must settle upon the 3.880 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 6.173 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 3.880 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

The fun will begin in February especially if we have a large amount of physical gold standing!!

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1177.0 down 40.00 (3.29%). WTI March crude was 97.10 up 1.28. Brent crude was 107.41 up 0.38. The spread between Brent and WTI was 10.31 down 0.90. The 30 year US Treasury bond was down 0.0100 at 3.6700. The 10 year T-Note was down 0.0200 at 2.7500. The dollar was up 0.13 at 80.63. The PPT/Dow was 15928.56 up 90.68. Silver closed at 19.56 down 0.13. The GSR was 64.1973 up 0.3832 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 55.14 up 1.59 (2.97%). March wheat was up 2.50 at 566.000. March corn was up 0.25 at 432.00. April lean hogs were down 0.725 at 93.575. March feeder cattle were down 0.425 at 168.375. March copper was down 0.006 at 3.253. February natural gas was up 0.186 at 5.033. March coal was up 0.25 at 59.50.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Wed, Jan 29, 2014 - 10:46pm
DayStar
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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~~Harvey 29 Jan 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Wednesday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

Harvey: Today was quite a surprise to see gold and silver rise despite the fact that we had the State of the Union message yesterday and the FOMC results today (another 10 billion USA of tapering). The other good news was the rise in inventory at the GLD. It is conceivable that the boys over in England have run out of metal to service both of China and the increase in demand for metal for new shareholders of GLD. GOFO rates were all positive. GLD: Gold gained 2.1 tonnes to stand at 792.56 tonnes. SLV: Silver was unchanged and stands at 10,029.22.

Mark O'Byrne (Goldcore): Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is heading for an £8 billion loss for 2013, rewarding senior executives massive bonuses despite losses, having to lay aside nearly $5 billion to cover potential litigation claims related to mortgage-backed securities and other high risk products sold before the financial crisis, gouging some of their business clients and now allegations of currency price fixing. RBS is to stop providing dozens of currency benchmarks, as regulatory rate rigging probes raise doubts about the integrity of daily price fixings in the global foreign exchange and gold markets. In a memo to clients, the bank said that it would limit its offering of foreign exchange benchmarks to a handful of price fixings, and that it would wind down its internal benchmark, called RBS Fix. Nearly six years after the financial crisis and its massive bailout, it looks like business as usual by the bankers in RBS and in the City of London and Wall Street. DS: Imagine how you would feel if you were a customer of RBS, and you got bailed in, but yet the executives paid themselves massive bonuses. These bankers are robbing the bank in broad daylight and getting away with it.

Bloomberg: Gold futures fell the most in five weeks on speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale back U.S. monetary stimulus, damping demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Fed policy makers, who start a two-day meeting today, may reduce asset purchases by $10 billion at each meeting to end the program this year, economists in a Bloomberg survey have forecast. Gold has dropped 24 percent in the past 12 months, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of equities has climbed 19 percent. “The Fed will very likely introduce additional taper action tomorrow,” Bart Melek, the head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. “Some people want to unwind positions before the announcement.” DS: We sure haven't heard much from Yellen. I keep hearing about Bernanke, even though he is no longer officially at the Fed. I guess we will hear from Yellen soon enough.

Alan Greenspan: There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

Rein de Vries (In Gold We Trust): Alan Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve fully well knowing how the system could only evolve and what consequences there would be after abandoning the gold standard in 1971. He wrote and talked extensively about it in his younger years. Now that he had become one of the people he used to criticize, his words and actions didn’t match with his former believes anymore. Greenspan knew the only way to keep an economy going, where money is just credit, was ever more credit (money) creation. He just couldn't say it anymore. New credit had to be created constantly or soon enough there would be a deflationary down cycle. So Greenspan did what he had to do to keep the fiat system going and during his term, the US national debt went up from $2,300 billion dollars to $8,000 billion dollars. DS: Koos Jenson picked out a catchy title for his blog (In Gold We Trust). It is very similar to the slogan on American money, "In God We Trust". I can see Jenson's point in that gold is money and all else is credit, but the title bugs me because it replaces "God" with "gold" in the phrase, In God we trust. The love of money (gold) is the root of all evil, and replacing God with gold puts ones heart in the wrong place. Seek you first the kingdom of God and all these "things" will be added to you.

Mark Mahaffey (Hinde Capital): It’s time to pay attention, because the most overvalued, best loved and best performing asset class (the S&P) has had a 20 day price break DOWN and the cheapest, most hated and worst performing asset class (gold) has had a 20 day price break UP. If we need a ‘Balkans-moment’ catalyst, we look no further than a chart of the Argentine peso which fell 15% last week to 8 pesos/dollar official rate (13 on the streets of Buenos Aires apparently). Other emerging markets have also been affected. It has at least one hallmark of significance. At least two politicians/central bankers have commented that it’s an isolated case and contagion is unlikely (heard that one before). A small country far away…

Jim Willie (Golden Jackass): We are at the doorstep of a major USTreasury Bond breakdown. If and when the breakout comes, it will make the Taper Talk backfire seem rather insignificant, as a gathering storm will hit like a financial hurricane on every continent. The Jackass is on record with a forecast of 3.5%, which remains in place. One must be patient to watch it unfold, since it can take months to unfold and to manifest itself. The USDollar control room at the infested USDept Treasury and the Banker Crime Syndicate at the US Fed Reserve will defend the 3.0% level to the death. A break above 3.0% toward 3.5% would bring about at least one big bank failure, force deadly dominoes of destruction, and reveal some more London Whale-type sightings with catastrophic losses. A very reliable reversal pattern is evident, the Cup & Handle formation, which indicates a breakout lift potential 1.0% higher. In my own past experience, the reversal pattern has been correct at least 80% of the time, but the timing of the breakout is always a challenge. DS: Some years ago there was correspondant on my blog at Kitco who called himself FreeMarketAgent. He appeared to me to be closely connected to the elites, and he said the bond crash of which Willie speaks here, is the elitists' pièce de résistance. They plan to be short the dollar and short US Treasuries in off shore hedge funds when they pull the plug on the dollar, like Soros was short the Bank of England when the elites pulled the plug on it. The event will bring the world economy to a standstill and neither food nor fuel will be delivered. It will be a catastrophe of the first order which the elites plan to use to get the nations to volunteer to give up sovereignty so the people can eat.

Jim Willie on the derivative control mechanism: The Jackass theory is that the derivatives used to restrain the rising rates might be broken, as a direct consequence of the QE bond monetization applied for way too long. Over two years of QE programs is an obscenity, a situation replete with heresy. The combination of permanent ZIRP (zero bound rate) and QE hyper monetary inflation has broken the USTreasury Bond complex. The evidence is ample. The dumping exercise by the various major creditor nations has added incredible strain. The new device of Indirect Exchange in established trend has also added strain. With the latter practice, nations pay for gigantic projects or outsized energy bills or massive tangible asset purchases with USTBonds stored in reserves. The US bond is the amply applied currency spent, no longer horded. The USFed must offset the considerable dumped sale of bonds by creditors. They use openly visible monetary inflation, plus hidden derivative tools that has lost their unchallenged power. The system is in breakdown mode.

Lawrence Williams (MineWeb): But even though China is importing such a huge amount of gold, it is definitely not the only country so doing. Even with all its import restrictions in place India will have remained a major importer of gold last year with big amounts coming in early in the year in particular before the most stringent import restrictions were put in place. The World Gold Council puts Indian gold demand in 2013 at around 900 tonnes despite the restrictions. A number of other countries have also recorded significant gold imports in 2013, while central banks have purchased 300 tonnes or more. Where’s all this gold coming from? Any surplus of supply over demand is usually accounted for by scrap recovery, but falling gold prices will have almost certainly cut this supply source dramatically so the balance will have had to come from other sources – the most prevalent being sales out of the big gold ETFs and out of Comex and other inventories – some even suggest from central bank leased gold. (Indeed there have been some very big, out of the ordinary withdrawals from Comex warehouses in the past week - all of which is thought to be headed east. DS: There is a source of scrap gold in China that is not usually considered. Wealthy chinese who can no longer get bank loans due to tighter credit are using gold loans to get cash. They borrow gold to be paid back in gold plus interest at some future date, sell the gold and take the cash and invest in high return activities or use it to fund their business operations. The gold that they sell must go to SGE to be melted down and recast with new bar numbers. This activity of internal gold leasing in China is generating high volume amounts of scrap that shows up as new volume on the SGE.

Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): The gold is gone! How hard is it to put this 1+1=2 together? This to me is absolute proof positive that the "run" that has obviously been going on is reaching a critical mass. You see, in the past the excess demand had to be satisfied from somewhere but not a "public somewhere" which is what the Comex, LBMA, the ETF's and individual vaults are. This "somewhere" was most obviously the central banks and the NY Fed in particular...but, maybe they have already run out of most if not all of their stacks which is why we now are seeing the "bank run" publicly. This is not rocket science folks, this is just plain common or street smarts that apparently are not taught in Yale or Harvard economic books. These books only teach "oh, they would never do this" (or maybe they are manuals on "how" to do this since Washington and Wall St. are packed full of 'well heeled and schooled elites'?). Like it or not, the mother of all bank runs in real gold money is happening right before your eyes. You have a choice, you can act (or may already have) or not. You can believe what they tell you or follow what your "common sense gut" is telling you. The danger is that the "run" ends, the doors are locked and you are on the outside looking in at those who are making the rules for the future gold tied currency system!

Tyler Durden: The Fed tightens by a little: markets soar; Turkey tightens by a lot: markets soar. If only it was that easy, everyone would tighten. Only it never is. Which is why as we just reported, the initial euphoria in Turkey is long gone and the Turkish Lira is basically at pre-announcement levels, only now the government has a furious, and loan-challenged population to deal with, not to mention an economy which has just ground to a halt. So... a 3% drop in the S&P from all time highs, a $10 billion taper, and the world was on the verge of an EM "domino crisis" - is this your centrally-planned stability? Of course, tomorrow the Fed will taper another $10 billion: do we repeat the entire exercise from square one then?

Zero Hedge: With all eyes on Russia over the next month as the Sochi Winter Olympics ramps up, we are sure having the market's attention on a collapsing currency is not what Putin had in mind before he dropped $50 billion to make it snow. While the Ruble remains just above record lows against the USD, Bloomberg reports that it has dropped to a record low against the central bank's dollar-euro basket.

Steven Englander (Citi): From the viewpoint of domestic US economic conditions the Fed tapering statement is completely anodyne [DS: Anodyne--not likely to offend or upset anyone]. From the point of view of EM, the Fed has just said “hasta la vista, baby”. The comment on US growth was a not surprising upgrade in the growth assessment – economic activity ‘picked up’ rather than ‘is expanding at a moderate pace’, but very little else changed other than the expected USD10bn additional tapering. There were no dissents and no changes in the forward guidance language. Since the announcement MXN and AUD are down about 0.4%, so there is modest disappointment in high-beta currencies. The S&P is down about 10 points, taking down US Treasury yields which initially spiked but have since dropped.

****************

Harvey's comments on Wednesday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed up $11.40 at $1262.20 (Comex closing time). Silver was up 5 cents at $19.53.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM

Gold: $1267.00

Silver: $19.73

Tuesday, Jan 28th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/01/jan-29gld-rises-in-gold-inventoryslv.html

Total, Jan (Silver), Feb (Gold), Mar (Silver) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI rose by 2366 contracts as silver was down in price yesterday to the tune of 29 cents. The total OI now rests tonight at 144,244. contracts. The non active month of January saw it's OI fall by 18 contracts down to 3. We had 18 notices served on yesterday so we neither gained nor lost any contracts standing for the January silver contract month. The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI rose by 1989 contracts to 88,397.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest fell today by a whopping 22,289 contracts from 405,028 down to 382,739 as gold was down $12.80 yesterday. It is surprising that gold has been in an upward trajectory this month and yet players refuse to roll to a future month even though the cost isnegligible. In the non active front month of January the OI fell by 46 contracts down to 20. We had 46 notices served upon yesterday so we thus we neither gained nor lost any contracts of gold will standing for the January contract month. The next big active month for gold is February and here the OI fell by 38,027 contracts to 45,804 . We have 2 more readings before first day notice,(Thursday and Friday) as first day notice is this Friday, Jan 31.2014. Last February we had over 40 tonnes of gold stand for delivery. The estimated volume today was good at 234,425 contracts.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was good coming in at 36,827 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was also good at 39,101 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was good at 234,425 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was also good coming in at 258,334, despite the many rollovers. We may have a huge amount of gold in excess of 1.2 million oz standing for February.

Inventory Numbers[/size]

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had small activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

We had 0 customer deposits:

Total customer deposit: nil oz

We had 3 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 2,005.000 oz (another nice round number)

ii) Out of Scotia: 60,511.70 oziii) Out of CNT: 30,016.60 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 92,533.300 oz

We had 1 adjustment today:

i) Out of the Brink's vault: 103,854.13 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account and thus this is probably head for a settlement.

Registered (dealer) silver: 49.935 million oz

Total of all silver: 179.443 million oz.

In Gold:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 0 customer deposits:

Total customer deposits: nil oz

We had 0 customer withdrawals:

Total customer withdrawals: nil oz.

Today we had 0 adjustments.

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 87,071.35 oz or 2.708 tonnes.

Today, 20 notices were issued from JPMorgan's dealer account and 0 notices were issued from its client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 20 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan's dealer (house) account or 0% of the issuance and 0 notices were stopped by JPMorgan's customer account. It seems that all the stopping or receiving of contracts is from the house of Morgan right under the watchful eye of the regulators who do nothing as JPM's concentration in the paper gold Comex advances again.

The total dealer Comex gold rests tonight at 375,139.467 oz or only 11.668 tonnes of gold. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,141,230.857 oz or 222.122 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks (Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) resting at only 8.881 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 88,532.124 oz or 2.754 tonnes.

ii) HSBC: 109,981.67 oz or 3.421tonnes.

iii) JPMorgan: 8,707,135 oz or 270.828 tonnes.

Total: 8.881 tonnes.

Brinks' dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain tonight at 85,140.4 oz or 2.648 tonnes. A few months ago Brinks had over 13 tonnes of gold in its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 2 notices filed for 10,000 oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 20 notices served upon our longs for 2,000 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 1671 x 5,000 oz per contract to which I add the difference between the OI standing thus far: (3) minus the notices served today (2) = 8,360,000 oz standing. It is possible that the last contract was paid out in cash and then the amount standing would be 8,355,000 oz

In summary, the amounts standing for silver:

1671 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 8,355,000 oz + (3) OI standing for this month - 2 (notices served today)x 5000 oz = 8,360,000 silver ounces standing for the January contract month.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in January, I take the total number of notices served (158) x 100 oz per contract to give us 15,800 oz so far tonight and add the difference between the remaining OI standing for January (20) and today's delivery notices (20) to get 15,800 x 100 oz which will stand in the January contract month.

In summary:

158 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this January month or 15,800 oz + (20) notices remaining to be served this month - 20 (notices served today) = 15,800 oz or.491 tonnes standing for the January gold month.

As you will see below we have only 8.881 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 11.53 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 11.66 tonnes. We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except small deposits from Brinks. Brinks settled finally on its tiny issuance from last week.

In Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 11.66 tonnes.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 728,956.437 (22.674) tonnes.

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 87,071.35 oz (2.708 tonnes).

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 8.881 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December being the busiest month for the gold calender. January is generally very quiet but we should see some gold transfer into JPMorgan from HSBC and Scotia for December settlements.

In going back over the data for the month of December and today, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

plus we had 2,700.600 oz ( jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes

(Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia and 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes

plus 0.006 tonnes and last Thursday's 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments.

Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now 0.4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3714 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + 0.4914 - 16.310 tonnes).

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 8.881 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3714 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 6.173 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3714 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

The fun will begin in February especially if we have a large amount of physical gold standing!!

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,148.00, 2.46%. WTI March crude was 97.65 up 0.55. Brent crude was 107.92 up 0.51. The spread between Brent and WTI was 10.27 down 0.04. The 30 year US Treasury bond was down 0.0500 at 3.6200. The 10 year T-Note was down 0.0700 at 2.6800. The dollar was down 0.02 at 80.61. The PPT/Dow was 15738.79 down 189.77. Silver closed at 19.71 up 0.15. The GSR was 64.3176 up 0.1203 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 53.53 down 1.61 (2.92%). March wheat was down 14.50 at 551.500. March corn was down 4.50 at 427.50. April lean hogs were up 0.225 at 93.800. March feeder cattle were up 0.850 at 169.225. March copper was down 0.013 at 3.241. February natural gas was up 0.524 at 5.557. April coal was down 0.47 at 59.03.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Thu, Jan 30, 2014 - 10:05pm
DayStar
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2586
14106

~~Harvey 30 Jan 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Thursday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

Nigel Farage (via King World News): The EU wants the ability and wants the power when it’s tracking our cars as they travel across Europe, if they don’t like what we are doing they would have something built in to all new cars that would allow them to press a button and literally stop our car from running. Can you believe the lengths to which these people are prepared to go? It just shows you the mindset and the mentality that are being built here within Brussels. They’ve already talked to all of the car manufacturers. They’ve got the technology ready to do this. All they need to do it to bully it through the European institutions and we’re going to end up living in something that even (George) Orwell couldn’t have even invented.” DS: Oh, but you don't have anything to hide, do you? So what do you care? Wear the chains, and go softly into the night.

Zero Hedge: In other news, the Baltic Dry Index has now plunged 51% from its late December highs and has collapsed to 5-month lows. DS: Hmmm! Wonder that could mean when the bulk cargo carriers don't have anything to carry?

Bill Fleckenstein (via King World News): I think stocks here and elsewhere will continue to be under pressure because at the margin the Fed has spooked people. Remember, this was in an environment where everyone was pretty fully loaded up with stocks. So I think stocks will continue to be weaker for a while until the Fed says, ‘Uncle,’ and I think the metals are going to trade higher. So the bear market in the metals is over. Last year was a year of fantasy where people were willing to suspend disbelief. This year is going to be the year of reality. Reality, to me, means lower stock prices, weaker bond markets, higher metals prices, and more turmoil.

Marc Faber: “I have no faith in paper money, period. Next, insider buying is also high in gold shares. Gold has massively underperformed relative to the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Maybe the price will go down some from here, but individual investors and my fellow panelists and Barron's editors ought to own some gold.” With regards to his allocation to physical gold, Faber was as transparent and candid as ever and said that he holds about 20% of his net worth in physical gold. "Own physical gold because the old system will implode. Those who own paper assets are doomed." DS: Amen, brother! Amen!

Mac Slavo (SHTFplan.com): Over the weekend Matt Drudge took to his Twitter account with a simple warning consisting of just four words… Have an Exit Plan. Something has spooked Matt Drudge and he’s not alone. Last year one of America’s leading talk show hosts, Mark Levin, warned that the U.S. government has been simulating the collapse of our financial system and society with the potential for widespread violence. There are countless such examples of highly influential media personalities who are issuing similar warnings. His exit plan warning may encompass any number of potential scenarios such as a coming shock to financial markets, evacuating major cities in an emergency, preparing for the destruction of our currency, or having a way to get out of the United States in the event of a Soviet-style purge. Whatever the case, Matt Drudge understands that his views and comments are followed by hundreds of millions of people worldwide, thus we are confident that he would not publicly issue such a warning unless he has access to credible information that supports his claims. That being said, we urge readers to remain vigilant. And, in the off chance that some terrible event is in our near future, we strongly suggest having a preparedness plan that includes emergency food storage, barter supplies, medicines, precious metals, and a strategic relocation plan in case you are forced to evacuate your current residence. DS: I just hope the system holds together long enough for me to get some things fixed.

GoldCore: The World Bank’s former chief economist wants to replace the US dollar with a single global super-currency, saying it will create a more stable global financial system, China Daily reports: ‘‘The dominance of the greenback is the root cause of global financial and economic crises,” Justin Yifu Lin told Bruegel, a Brussels-based policy-research think tank. “The solution to this is to replace the national currency with a global currency. The head of the American delegation at Bretton Woods, Harry Dexter White, responded to Keynes’s idea thus: “We have been perfectly adamant on that point. We have taken the position of absolutely no.” Instead he proposed an International Stabilisation Fund, which would place the entire burden of maintaining the balance of trade on the deficit nations. It would impose no limits on the surplus that successful exporters could accumulate. He also suggested an International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which would provide capital for economic reconstruction after the war. White, backed by the financial clout of the US treasury, prevailed. The International Stabilisation Fund became the International Monetary Fund. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development remains the principal lending arm of the World Bank.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Financial Times, London): Half the world economy is one accident away from a deflation trap. The International Monetary Fund says the probability may now be as high as 20pc. It is a remarkable state of affairs that the G2 monetary superpowers - the US and China - should both be tightening into such a 20pc risk, though no doubt they have concluded that asset bubbles are becoming an even bigger danger. "We need to be extremely vigilant," said the IMF's Christine Lagarde in Davos. "The deflation risk is what would occur if there was a shock to those economies now at low inflation rates, way below target. I don't think anyone can dispute that in the eurozone, inflation is way below target." It is not hard to imagine what that shock might be. It is already before us as Turkey, India and South Africa all slam on the brakes, forced to defend their currencies as global liquidity drains away. The World Bank warns in its latest report - Capital Flows and Risks in Developing Countries - that the withdrawal of stimulus by the US Federal Reserve could throw a "curve ball" at the international system. "If market reactions to tapering are precipitous, developing countries could see flows decline by as much as 80pc for several months," it said. A quarter of these economies risk a sudden stop. "While this adjustment might be short-lived, it is likely to inflict serious stresses, potentially heightening crisis risks." DS: Remember, Christine Lagarde is the IMF head that wants to "revalue" all the global currencies, and she is now talking about a "shock to the economies". Last week she was screaming at bankers in New York telling them to get with the program and pony up the money or she was going to shut down some banks.

X22Report: Lloyds banking group is laying off approximately 1300 employees. Durable goods declined and computer and electronics have plunged to 1993 levels. Sales of homes are declining and now we see home prices starting to fall. Nigeria is now selling off dollars to purchase the Yuan to beef up its reserves. Other countries have switched from the dollar and are using the yuan for bilateral trade. The Geneva II talks are going no where and the build up to a false flag to strike Syria is starting to build. The threat of a terrorist attack at the SuperBowl has been building, the FBI has setup a base of operations, DHS is on site and they have been holding drills for the last couple of weeks to be ready for a terrorist attack.

Harvey: Today is the last day that every holder of a February contract in gold must either roll or stand for delivery. For the past several years, the crooks always bomb gold on this day trying to convince our players not to take delivery of metal. These games will never end. We should have a good day price wise tomorrow. GOFO for all months is still positive. Now for the first time, we are witnessing gold demand i.e. gold entering and leaving the vaults of the Shanghai gold exchange surpass annual global production. The world produces a touch less than 2200 tonnes per year ex Russia and ex China (who keep all of their gold). China's demand now exceeds this level. Bill Kaye also discusses that the paper gold scheme is coming to an end because main stream media like London's Financial times is now reporting on it. GLD: Gold increased by 0.6 tonnes to 793.16 tonnes. SLV: Silver was unchanged at 10,029.22.

Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): The boy(s) who cried wolf" and have said that the entire financial system was going to come down have been saying it for quite a while now...I am one of them. "We" were right yet, we miscalculated one thing..."we" never believed that sovereign governments would bankrupt themselves in an effort to hide the truth. Is it possible for the current debt that has built up in the system to ever be repaid? Which said another way, will holders of this debt (bonds) ever get their "money back"? Is it possible for the $1+ quadrillion derivatives market to ever actually perform? When I say "perform" I am referring to actually "pay off" given the circumstances they were originally designed to protect against? Think about this, one party...or the other (or both) were absolutely nuts when they entered into an agreement to either insure or be insured of a U.S. bankruptcy! Is JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, AIG, Credit Swiss or some Chinese behemoth going to have the ability to "pay up" when the game stops? Wouldn't a U.S. bankruptcy..."bankrupt" whoever it is that sold the insurance in the first place? Going just a step further, what will dollars or euros be worth? Don't they derive their "values" based upon the "full faith and credit" of the respective governments? Was it possible for these "alarmist wolves" to have foreseen central banks (the NY Fed?) selling gold that wasn't even actually their own? Did "we" believe that 100 paper ounces would be sold for every 1 real ounce that actually exists? Could ANYONE have forecast that Mother Nature would be temporarily stuffed and metals prices would drop in the face of record demand with stable or actually shrinking supply? I get asked the question constantly "so when do you think this thing will break?". I have a standard answer, "a few years ago". There is no way that "left alone" to free markets and Mother Nature that we could have even approached as upside down and perverted as we have become economically and financially (not to mention socially). But, it is what it is...until it isn't. DS: Since the laws of nature dictate that the financial system left to itself would have broken and fixed itself long ago, and since the global financial system continues to exist and levitate despite the gargantuan forces that are trying to correct it, can anyone deny that the elites are purposely distorting the system to make the crash more devastating?

Zero Hedge: Following last week's Flash PMI print of 49.6, the Final print for January China Manufacturing dropped further to 49.5 confirming the contraction is deepening. Japanese stocks were down the most since August in the early going as Nikkei futures extended the losses from the US day-session (and rather notably decoupled from USDJPY and breaking below 15,000). The Nikkei is heading for the worst month since May 2012 (-8.66% so far). S&P futures tracked USDJPY as 102.00 was defended aggressively. Chinese stocks are also tumbling (though not as hard as Japan and US) and the PBOC will not be adding liquidity today. Furthermore the blame is being shifted as Deputy FinMin Zhu warns that the "Chinese economy faces risks from overseas uncertainty." Meanwhile, foreign investment in France crashes 77% in 2013 (most on record) to 26 year lows and The Russian central bank needed to intervene today to stem the losses of the Ruble, and now, even Zimbabwe opines on the emerging market crisis as Zimbabwe retailers, concerned about the rapid devaluation of the currency of their southern neighbor, South Africa's Rand, have now stopped accepting it entirely.

****************

Harvey's comments on Thursday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed down $20.00 at $1242.20 (Comex closing time). Silver was down 42 cents at $19.11.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM:

Gold: $1244.00

Silver: $19.16

Wednesday, Jan 29th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/01/jan-302014gold-and-silver-whacked.html

Total, Jan (Silver), Feb (Gold), Mar (Silver) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI fell by 1362 contracts as silver was up in price yesterday to the tune of 5 cents. The total OI now rests tonight at 142,882. contracts. The non active month of January is now off the board.The non active February silver contract month saw its OI fall by 5 contracts down to 308. The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI fell by 1652 contracts to 86,745.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest fell today by another whopping 6595 contracts from 382,739 down to 376,144 as gold was up $11.40 yesterday. It is surprising that gold has been in an upward trajectory this month and yet players refuse to roll to a future month even though the cost is negligible. The non active front month of January is now off the board. The next big active month for gold is February where first day notice is tomorrow and here the OI fell by 23,574 contracts to 22,230. We have 1 more readings before first day notice and that will be released at 1:30 pm tomorrow and then I will be available to predict what will stand for February initially. Last February we had over 40 tonnes of gold stand for delivery.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was good coming in at 49,789 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was also good at 47,674 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was fair at 201,639 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was good coming in at 279,863 despite the many rollovers. I would think that around 8,000 contracts will roll out for tomorrow's reading leaving us with around 1.2 million oz standing. This will be huge, but anything can happen.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawal: nil oz.

We had 1 customer deposit:

i) into Brinks: 600,360.90 oz

Total customer deposit: 600,360.90 oz

We had 3 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 35,755.08 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 183,717.09 oz

iii) Out of HSBC: 1,018.799 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 220,490.969 oz

We had 0 adjustments today

Registered (dealer) silver: 49.935 million oz

Total of all silver: 179.823 million oz.

In Gold:

Quote:

Again We had zero activity in the Comex gold vaults today and still no gold enters the dealer and little gold enters any vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 0 customer deposits:

Total customer deposits: nil oz

We had 0 customer withdrawals:

Total customer withdrawals: nil oz.

Today we had 1 major adjustment:

i) out of the HSBC vault: 64,760.541 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account at HSBC. This will for sure be used in the delivery process. It is amazing that the only way the Comex is settling is through the adjustments. No gold is entering by way of the dealer accounts.

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 87,071.35 oz or 2.708 tonnes.

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan's dealer account and 0 notices were issued from its client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan's dealer (house) account or 0% of the issuance and 0 notices were stopped by JPMorgan's customer account. It seems that all the stopping or receiving of contracts is from the house of Morgan right under the watchful eye of the regulators who do nothing as JPM's concentration in the paper gold Comex advances again.

The total dealer Comex gold rests tonight at 439,900.008 oz or only 13.683 tonnes of gold. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,141,230.857 oz or 222.122 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks (Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) resting at only 10.896 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 88,532.124 oz or 2.754 tonnes.

ii) HSBC: 174,742.211 oz or 5.435tonnes.

iii) JPMorgan: 8,707,135 oz or 270.828 tonnes.

Total: 10.896 tonnes.

Brinks' dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain tonight at 85,140.4 oz or 2.648 tonnes. A few months ago Brinks had over 13 tonnes of gold in its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 1 notices filed for 5,000 oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 0 notices served upon our longs for nil oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 1672 x 5,000 oz per contractor 8,360,000 oz.

Thus in summary, the final standings for January silver:

1672 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 8,360,000 oz

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in December, I take the total number of notices served (158) x 100 oz per contract to give us 15,800 oz for the month.

In summary, the final standings:

158 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this January month or 15,800 oz or 0.4914 tonnes

As you will see below we have only 10.896 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC,Scotia) and 13.544 tonnes if you include Brinks.(If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 13.6827 tonnes). We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except small deposits from Brinks.

In Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 13.6827 tonnes.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 728,956.437 (22.673 tonnes after losing 10 tonnes of gold)

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 87,071.35 oz (2.708 tonnes)

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 10.896 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account. What is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December being the busiest month for the gold calender and February around the corner. January is generally very quiet but we should see some gold transfer into JPMorgan from HSBC and Scotia for December settlements.

In going back over the data for the month of December and today, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

plus we had 2,700.600 oz ( Jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes

plus (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia

plus 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes

plus 0.006 tonnes and last Thursday's .3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments

Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now .4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3714 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + .4914 - 16.310 tonnes)

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 10.896 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3714 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 8.188 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3714 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

The fun will begin in February especially if we have a large amount of physical gold standing!!

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,127.00, down 1.83%. WTI March crude was 98.13 up 1.03. Brent crude was 107.87 up 0.46. The spread between Brent and WTI was 9.74 down 0.57. The 30 year US Treasury bond was down 0.0300 at 3.6400. The 10 year T-Note was down 0.0600 at 2.6900. The dollar was up 0.46 at 81.09. The PPT/Dow was 15848.61 down 79.95. Silver closed at 19.14 down 0.42. The GSR was 64.9478 up 0.7505 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 61.08 up 5.94 (10.77%). March wheat was down 12.50 at 553.500. March corn was up 1.50 at 433.50. April lean hogs were up 0.050 at 93.625. March feeder cattle were up 0.325 at 168.700. March copper was down 0.027 at 3.227. February natural gas was up 0.524 at 5.557. April coal was down 0.92 at 58.58.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Sat, Feb 1, 2014 - 9:24am
DayStar
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2586
14106

~~Harvey 1 Feb 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Friday Harvey Report.

FDIC Seized Banks

The FDIC seized the Syringa Bank in Boise, ID.

The Commitment of Traders Report

Gold: In the gold COT the commercials went net short by a huge 18,888 which is bearish, and also the commercials let the large specs off the hook???? I continue to have trouble with the data that the CME provides us. DS: I think the large specs are just an extension of the bullion banks. They all work together to manipulate the markets.

Silver: The silver COT was neutral as the commercials went slightly net long.

News and Commentary

Keith Barron (via King World News): What happens in countries like Argentina with a currency collapse is you have to go around with big wads of money to pay for things and nobody ever has any small change. So what’s happened in some of the Latin American countries, and I specifically remember in Argentina, people started to use candies as small change. You would buy a newspaper and they would give you 3 or 4 candies back. I remember being in Kazakhstan and the small change was actually made out of cardboard. It was actually official money, but it was made out of cardboard. Kazakhstan didn’t have any metal to make the small change. This is the kind of thing that happens. People get quite innovative as they go into ‘survival mode.’ When they get paid they go out and spend it right away. So the velocity of money becomes very, very high in these countries because you want to get rid of the money before it depreciates. There is no waiting to pay. If you have a bill the collector is there that afternoon waiting to collect the money, and it becomes an all-cash economy. People routinely carry around large wads of cash with them. The wads are so large that in many cases they are done up with string or elastic bands, and the outside bundles of the money get frayed. It gets so bad that people don’t even count the money any more, instead they just hand over bundles.

Harvey: GOFO rates were all positive. GLD: Gold was unchanged at 793.16 tonnes. SLV: Silver was unchanged at 10,029.22 tonnes.

Gerald Celente (via King World News): Now let’s get this straight: These countries in the emerging markets are raising interest rates in order to protect their currencies as their economies are declining. Brilliant. That’s the exact opposite strategy for growth. So as the decline in their economies accelerates, you are going to see the civil unrest intensify. The people are restless and they are waking up to the corruption that’s going on throughout the world, and how the elites are taking almost everything, and how almost everybody else is left with nothing. they just passed laws in Spain to stop people from protesting. But all the laws in the world do not feed starving people. All the laws in the world do not put roofs over people’s heads. The entire global financial system has been floating on the fumes of the US Federal Reserve’s Ponzi scheme. So now with the Fed announcing the first tapering, and then the second, you can already see chaos engulfing the world as the Fed’s global financial scheme is collapsing. This collapse is engulfing the entire world, from Russia, to South Africa, into China and emerging markets across the globe. And the only way to stop this global route will be for the Fed to reverse course and dramatically increase QE.

Reuters: In a sign of the times, whistleblowers who help bust illegal gold shipments can get a bigger reward in India than those who help catch cocaine and heroin smugglers..."There has been a several-fold increase in gold smuggling this year after restrictions from the government, which has left narcotics behind." From travellers laden head-to-toe in jewellery to passengers who conceal carbon-wrapped gold pieces in their bodies — in the mistaken belief that metal detectors will not be set off — Indians are smuggling in more bullion than ever, government officials say, driven by the country's insatiable demand for the metal. That suggests official data showing a sharp fall in gold buying, which has helped narrow India's current account gap, may significantly underestimate the real level of gold flows. The World Gold Council estimates that 150 to 200 tonnes of smuggled gold will enter India in 2013, on top of the 900 tonnes of official demand. DS: Since when has the World Gold Council's estimates been anywhere close to as much gold was actually involved in something. Who knows how the WGC got their numbers unless they got it from the elitist members of the government that are involved in smuggling, and they reported the amount that they themselves control.

Richard Russell (via King World News): Certain members warned Bernanke to halt the Fed's wild money creation, fearing that it would wind up in hyper-inflation. But the Fed cannot completely halt its QE. The Fed is now buying 90% of the Treasuries that are put out for sale. If the Fed halts its buying of Treasuries, who will buy them? Certainly not China or USA investors. Bernanke's thinking or hoping is that continued Fed stimulus will result in the US economy becoming so strong on its own that in due time it won't need any Fed stimulus. However, matters are not working out in the way Bernanke wishes. The economy is still dragging its feet, and employment is still lagging. In the meantime, the banks, not the US populace, have prospered. The banks' reserves have been swelling. What dissenting Fed members are worried about is that bank reserves are growing and are beginning to resemble water behind a dam, pressuring to be released. When the dam finally breaks, all assets will go through the roof, and, as usual, leave the ever-suffering middle class behind. So that's the story and the problem of the era. As I said years ago, the choice is, inflate or die.

Koos Jansen (In Gold We Trust): In the trading week from January 20 – 24 physical gold withdrawn from the SGE vaults accounted for 57 tons, this is the third week in a row SGE withdrawals have been more than weekly global mine production. In the first 24 days of 2014 withdrawals from the SGE accounted for 216 tons. With one trading week left this month it’s very likely January 2014 will break the all time record of monthly withdrawals, surpassing the 236 tons from April 2013. Is this the height of the Chinese gold rush? Demand for gold has been strong due to the celebration of the Chinese lunar year, the year of the horse, starting January 31. Across the nation people buy golden gifts for each other, especially by these low prices. It’s quite clear now that the Chinese people will only buy more physical gold as the price remains low, or will further drop. They are not scared of a loss in value, as it has been in their culture for thousands of years to save in gold as a core asset. The young people, this is taught by the elder. After many years of economic suppression they regained their freedom to do so, being spurred by newly acquired wealth. Lower gold prices give an extra boost to demand,” said Yang Chunyan, an analyst at Orient Securities Co. in Shanghai. “Sales of gold gifts typically accelerate in the two weeks leading up to the lunar new year and have really taken off.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler (GATA): We offer two explanations for the Fed's tapering. One is technical, and one is strategic. First the technical explanation. The Fed’s bond purchases and the banks’ interest rate swap derivatives have made a dent in the supply of Treasuries. With income tax payments starting to flow in, fewer Treasuries are being issued to put pressure on interest rates. This permits the Fed to make a show of doing the right thing and reduce bond purchases. As a weakening economy becomes apparent as the year progresses, calls for the Fed to support the economy will permit the Fed to broaden the array of instruments that it purchases. A strategic explanation for tapering is that the growth of US debt and money creation is causing the world to turn a jaundiced eye toward the US dollar and toward its role as world reserve currency. Currently the Russian Duma is discussing legislation that would eliminate the dollar’s use and presence in Russia. Other countries are moving away from the dollar. Recently the Nigerian central bank reduced its dollar reserves and increased its holdings of Chinese yuan. Zimbabwe, which was using the US dollar as its own currency, switched to Chinese yuan. The former chief economist of the World Bank recently called for terminating the use of the dollar as world reserve currency. He said that “the dominance of the greenback is the root cause of global financial and economic crises.” Moreover, the Federal Reserve is very much aware of the flight away from the dollar into gold, because it is this flight that causes the Fed to manipulate the gold price in order to hold it down and in order to be able to free up gold for delivery. The Fed knows that the ability of the US to pay its bills in its own currency is the reason it can stand its large trade imbalance and is the basis for US power. If the dollar loses the reserve currency role, the US becomes just another country with balance of payments and currency problems and an inability to sell its bonds in order to finance its budget deficits. In other words, perhaps the Fed understands that a dollar crisis is a bigger crisis than a bank crisis and that its bailout of the banks is undermining the dollar. The question is: will the Fed let the banks go in order to save the dollar?

Andrew Maguire (via King World News): We started the week some $30 above the $1,250 options sweet spot, and it was no coincidence that on the following day, (with most participants on the side-lines ahead of FOMC), that at the exact moment of option expiry we hit that precise level. Of course this price manipulation pays no attention to the strong wholesale market and because of this divergent action, it allows large volumes of physical gold to exit the Western system without driving up the price. After the FOMC meeting, we saw the first real evidence of official intervention this year. Footprints strongly suggested it was the BIS who was actively intervening in the gold market. With stocks collapsing and gold rising, a worst case scenario was unfolding for the Fed. However, what was different this time around was that the FED had nothing but propaganda, or short term tricks to attempt to control the gold price. The large scale selling which took place yesterday came in size just before the news release. This was highly suspect and almost certainly related to BIS official supply. And nobody places such large bets minutes ahead of a major news release without knowing the outcome in advance. The BIS and the primary agent bullion banks have the data at least 24 hours ahead of the market, and in this instance they planned to use this insider information given to them by the Fed to drive down the price of gold back through key short-term moving averages, in order to trip large long stops and draw in additional momentum short selling. Without this intervention, gold would have almost certainly risen and large short covering would have ensued. These kinds of footprints are totally visible and indicate official selling. The BIS has their agent bullion banks counterintuitively tricking the market into further short selling. The bullion banks then take the long side of these short sales and capitulated longs. So in all of this chaotic trading the bullion banks have gotten even more long, physical buyers have increased purchases, and the hot money crowd is now holding an even bigger bag.

Egon von Greyerz (via King World News): What most holders of dollars don’t realize is that their currency is being totally debased in real terms by falling 97% against gold in the last 43 years, and 80% against the Swiss franc. It is totally amazing that anyone outside the US wants to hold dollars. And even the Americans would be much better off to dump their own currency. Based on my projection, the dollar should fall another 50% against the Swiss franc. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Swiss franc will appreciate in real terms. So even if Swiss francs will be better to hold than dollars in the next few years, there is still a risk just like there is with most paper currencies. With the world financial and economic situation being at a very dangerous breaking point, for investors there is of course nothing safer than holding real physical gold and storing it outside the banking system.

Gerald Celente (via X22Report): The fall-out from our current economic climate is going to be unprecedented. For those who deny this is happening, understand that the above warning comes directly from our Treasury Department. They’re the money guys. And they are telling us what’s going to happen. And be assured it won’t just be stock markets that drop precipitously. What we’re talking about here is the collapse of the economy of the United States of America – the richest nation on Earth. The consequences will be devastating on every level and those of us on Main Street will be taking the brunt of the impact. Imagine a situation where jobs continue to be shed by the hundreds of thousands every month without abatement. A situation where the price of basic essentials like energy and food rise without restraint. A situation where medical care is so expensive that average Americans will go bankrupt trying to pay for government mandated coverage. A situation where whatever money you do have in savings becomes worthless because our currency loses credibility around the world. This is what’s happening right now. The scary version: There is no way to turn this around. It’s just going to get progressively worse. If you haven’t taken steps to prepare – to insulate yourself for an economic end of the world as we know it – then life for you and your family is going to be horrific. This is the depression.

Eric Sprott (Sprott Asset Management): “The price of gold and silver will both hit new highs in 2014. The price of gold goes north of $2,000, and silver will quickly go over $50. When it does, it will get a little crazy.” Sprott says, “They know a day of reckoning is coming, and they are setting up for it. . . . I am convinced some sovereign banking systems fail in 2014.”

Doug Casey of CaseyResearch.com warns, “Were going into what I call ‘The Greater Depression.’ It’s going to be much more serious than what happened in the 1930s. . . A depression is a period of time when most people’s standard of living drops significantly.” Casey explains, “There is a gigantic amount of debt in the U.S. at all levels—governmental, corporate and individual. Debt is a sign you have been living above your means. It’s a debt bubble, and this is a major reason the government wants interest rates low. When interest rates rise, it makes it harder for people in debt to service that debt. They are simply delaying the inevitable at this point, but it is inevitable what is going to happen, and we are going to have a fantastic depression.” On physical gold and silver, Casey says, “Gold is more important to own and perhaps a better bargain now than in 1971 or 2001, and the same is true of silver.” DS: If this was all that happened, bankruptcies would happen, debt would be forgiven, people would pick themselves up, and life would go on. Unfortunately, that's not all that will happen. The folks that are causing the economic crash are also planning to create a famine, to destroy our currency, to price food out of reach, to spray us with germs and chemicals, to turn off the power, to break the continental plate, set off earthquakes and volcanoes, and to strive to kill as many of us as they can. The good part is, that in spite of their efforts, the good guys are projected to win and America will for a time again be the shining city on the hill. The angel told George Washington that this coming time would be the worst of the three great crisis that will strike America. The angel warned America will face an invasion of the combined armies of Africa, Asia and Europe where millions will engage in mortal combat. Though they are almost overcome, a few patriots will continue to resist until Jesus comes and saves them from annihilation.

Alasdair Macleod (GoldMoney): Over much of the last century US dollar cash and deposits expanded on the back of a gold standard; in the same way today's emerging markets have expanded on the back of a dollar standard. Therefore, the redemption of these currencies into the US dollar mirrors pre-WW1 bank runs, except on a global scale. And In every bank run a bank pretends there is no problem until it is too late. Central banks cannot escape the fact that currencies depend entirely on confidence. Markets are now painfully reminding us of this truism, following the Fed's second tapering announcement. A whisper in New York becomes a storm in Delhi, Ankara, Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires and Pretoria. It is an important point. In the same way that under a gold standard a central bank had to have sufficient gold stocks to maintain confidence in its currency, an emerging market central bank has to have sufficient dollar reserves on hand. And this is why from a monetary perspective a desperate central bank is compelled to increase interest rates when Keynesian text books tell us such a move is certain to drive these economies into a deflationary slump.

****************

Harvey's comments on Friday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed down $2.10 at $1240.10 (Comex closing time).

Silver was unchanged at $19.11.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM:

Gold: $1244.00

Silver: $19.16

Thursday, Jan 30th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/01/jan-31gld-and-slv-remain-constantalmost.html

Total, Jan (Silver), Feb (Gold), Mar (Silver) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI rose by 3803 contracts as silver was down in price yesterday to the tune of 42 cents. The total OI now rests tonight at 146,695. contracts. The non active month of January is now off the board.The non active February silver contract month saw its OI rise by 17 contracts up to 325. The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI rose by 3631 contracts to 90,376.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest rose slightly today by 167 contracts from 376,144 up to 376,311 as gold was down $20.00 yesterday. The non active front month of January is now off the board. The next big active month for gold is February where first day notice is today and here the OI fell by 13,737 contracts to 8,993. The next non active gold contract month is March and here the OI rose by 52 contracts.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was good coming in at 35,367 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent at 53,003 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was poor at 114,632 contracts as many players have opted out of playing at the Comex. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair coming in at 221,725 despite the many rollovers.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had tiny activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawal:

i) out of Brinks: 394,700.58 oz

Total dealer withdrawals: 394,700.58 oz

We had 1 customer deposits:

i) into Delaware: 2,005.000 oz (another of those perfectly round deposits)

Total customer deposit: 2005.000 oz

We had 2 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Scotia: 20,664.40 ozii) Out of HSBC: 1,108.30 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 21,772.74 oz

We had 1 adjustment today

From the CNT vaults: 692,101.880 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and into the dealer account. We should see a settlement here shortly next week.

Registered (dealer) silver: 50.233 million oz

Total of all silver: 179.408 million oz.

In Gold:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 1 tiny customer deposits:

i) Into Brinks: 160.75 oz

Total customer deposits: 160.75 oz

We had 0 customer withdrawals:

Total customer withdrawals: nil oz.

Today we had 0 adjustments.

Thus we end this weekend with the following with respect to JPMorgan's inventory.

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 87,071.35 oz or 2.708 tonnes

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan's dealer account and 53 notices were issued from its client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 55 contracts of which 11 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan's dealer (house) account or 0% of the issuance and 0 notices were stopped by JPMorgan's customer account. It seems that all the stopping or receiving of contracts is from the house of Morgan right under the watchful eye of the regulators who do nothing as JPM's concentration in the paper gold Comex advances again.

The total dealer Comex gold rests tonight at 439,900.008 oz or only 13.683 tonnes of gold. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,141,230.857 oz or 222.122 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks (Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) resting at only 10.896 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 88,532.124 oz or 2.754 tonnes.

ii) HSBC: 174,742.211 oz or 5.435tonnes.

iii) JPMorgan: 8,707,135 oz or 270.828 tonnes.

Total: 10.896 tonnes.

Brinks' dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain tonight at 85,140.4 oz or 2.648 tonnes. A few months ago Brinks had over 13 tonnes of gold in its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 181 notices filed for 905,000 oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 55 notices served upon our longs for 5500 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 905 x 5,000 oz per contractor 905,000 oz to which we add the difference between the OI standing for February (325) minus the number of contracts served today (181) x 5,000 oz

Thus in summary, for first day notice:

181 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 905,000 oz + (325) OI standing for February - (181) number of notices filed today x 5000 oz = 1,625,000 oz

a very good showing for silver in this generally weak delivery month of February.

Today, no change in gold inventory at the GLD

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 55 notices served upon our longs for 5500 oz of gold. In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in December, I take the number of contracts served so far this month at 55 x 100 oz = 5500 oz to which I add the difference between the open interest standing for February: (8993) x 100 oz minus the notices sent down for today (55) x 100 oz to give us what will stand for the month.

In summary:

55 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this February month or 5500 oz + (8993 notices) - ( 55) notices filed today x 100 oz = 899,300 oz or 27.97 tonnes of gold.

This greatly exceeds the registered gold inventory at the Comex. The bankers no doubt will try and use fiat to buy out some contracts as no gold can be seen entering the Comex vaults.

As you will see below we have only 10.896 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC,Scotia) and 13.544 tonnes if you include Brinks.(If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 13.6827 tonnes). We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except small deposits from Brinks.

In Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 13.6827 tonnes.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 728,956.437 (22.673 tonnes after losing 10 tonnes of gold)

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 87,071.35 oz (2.708 tonnes)

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, Scotia) have collectively only 10.896 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December and February are the busiest months for the gold calender .

In going back over the data for the month of December and January, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

plus we had 2,700.600 oz (jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes

plus (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia

plus 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes + 0.006 tonnes and last Thursday's 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments

Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now .4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3714 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + .4914 - 16.310 tonnes)

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 10.896 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3714 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 8.188 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3714 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

The fun will begin in February especially if we have a large amount of physical gold standing!!

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,110.00, 1.51%. WTI March crude was 97.49 down 0.64. Brent crude was 106.40 down 1.47. The spread between Brent and WTI was 8.91 down 0.83. The 30 year US Treasury bond was down 0.0200 at 3.6200. The 10 year T-Note was down 0.0200 at 2.6700. The dollar was up 0.16 at 81.25. The PPT/Dow was 15698.85 down 149.76. Silver closed at 19.17 up 0.03. The GSR was 64.9922 up 0.0444 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 62.57 up 1.49 (2.44%). March wheat was up 2.25 at 555.750. March corn was up 0.50 at 434.00. April lean hogs were up 1.175 at 94.800. March feeder cattle were up 0.725 at 169.425. March copper was down 0.030 at 3.197. March natural gas was down 0.614 at 4.943. April coal was down 1.73 at 56.85.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Mon, Feb 3, 2014 - 12:57am
ajwgator
Offline
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Lexington, KY
Joined: Sep 20, 2012
45
69

Thanks Daystar!  I can't tell

Thanks Daystar! I can't tell you enough how much I appreciate your daily postings and opinions. You are like my extra set of eyes and ears in these times when up is down, bad is good, and lies are spread as truth! I look forward to reading your blog everyday.

Mon, Feb 3, 2014 - 9:49pm
DayStar
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2586
14106

~~Harvey 3 Feb 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Monday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

John Ing (via King World News): Gold is up about 6% since year end, despite all of the mainstream media anti-gold propaganda. This rally in gold has taken place among the much feared taper. This is really just the consequences of the three rounds of quantitative easing and the orgy of money printing and liquidity that’s been created by the world’s central banks. “The emerging market turmoil has accelerated and increased as tapering has come into effect. We saw Argentina devalue their peso, which automatically caused a rush into gold. Gold has soared in peso terms and it’s a reminder that all of this means the onset of even more risk. The classic shelter during this turmoil has historically always been gold. The last time we spoke I suggested a major bottom had been made at $1,180. Gold then moved up into resistance in the $1,270 area, and now we are just backing and filling. But I think the next target after $1,270 is $1,325, and then there is a big gap to $1,600. So despite the pullback in gold, people need to fasten their seat belts.” We are in unchartered waters. I’ve been saying for some time now that 2014 is the year that we will see the consequences of quantitative easing. That’s why I see a rush into gold and new highs. At the same time, tomorrow is the beginning of the Chinese New Year. You must look at what’s happening in China, where the demand for gold remains high. Volumes through the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased roughly 60% last year. There is no reason why this increase will slow down. There will continue to be heavy demand from Asia and continued central bank buying. This continued push by various entities into physical gold is going to drive higher prices in 2014.”

Harvey: Today all bourses around the globe sounded the retreat as red ink was the name of the game. The USA released its ISM manufacturing numbers and it was awful and that set the tone for the USA. The GOFO rates are positive for all months. GLD: Gold was unchanged at 793.16 tonnes. SLV: Silver gained a whopping 2.117 million oz and stands at 10,095.06 tonnes.

Robert Fitzwilson (via King World News): With margin debt at stratospheric levels and the presence of high frequency trading, the markets are operating within a toxic stew that could devolve rapidly into a very nasty correction or bear market. The wild cards are the Fed and the underlying economy. If the Fed cannot get the parade of unsupportive economic indicators to reverse, yet they continue to support the stock market, the separation between valuations and reality will become even more dangerous. If they are able to pull off this “hat trick” of getting positive momentum in the economy and provide support for stocks, the equity markets could rise significantly from current levels. The sad part of this is that it relies upon a handful of people at the Fed to make monumental decisions on an immensely complex world economy. It is an impossible task and is destined for failure, but that is the situation in which we find ourselves. We are hearing that there was a near revolt within the Fed to exit QE. It cannot be done without creating more of the turmoil that we are seeing in the emerging markets. If continued at this pace, that turmoil will spread to the developed countries and markets.

Mark O'Byrne (Goldcore): Gold rose 3.2% in January, its first monthly advance in five, as concerns about emerging markets and the Fed’s tapering led to declines in stock markets and safe haven buying. Australia’s Perth Mint, which refines most of the bullion from the world’s second-biggest producer, joined the U.S. Mint in reporting gold demand climbed in January. Sales of coins and the increasingly popular minted gold bars at the Perth Mint increased 10% to 64,818 ounces last month from 58,944 ounces in December. The mint sold 912,388 ounces of silver compared with 845,941 ounces in December, it said. Sales of gold coins by the U.S. Mint rose 63% in January to the highest since April. Sales climbed to 91,500 ounces from 56,000 ounces in December, while sales of silver coins almost tripled to 4.78 million ounces, the highest in a year, the data showed. Part of the reason for the surge in demand is due to dealers restocking inventories and due to collector demand for the newly minted 2014 coins. Austria’s Muenze Oesterreich AG is running 24 hours a day to meet a surge in demand on behalf of investors - particularly in Germany which continues to be Europe’s largest buyer of gold.

Michael Snyder (X22Report): I have posted quotes from five men that are greatly respected in the financial world. What they have to say is quite chilling: #1 Doug Casey: “Now is a very good time to start thinking financially because I’m afraid that this year, in 2014, we’re going to go back into the financial hurricane. We’ve been in the eye of the storm since 2009, but now we’re going to go back into the trailing edge of the storm, and it’s going to be much longer lasting and much worse and much different than what we had in 2008 and 2009.” #2 Bill Fleckenstein: “The [price-to-earnings ratio] is 16, 17 times earnings,” Fleckenstein said on Tuesday’s episode of “Futures Now.” “Why would you pay 16 times for an S&P company? I don’t care about where rates are, because rates are artificially suppressed. Why isn’t that worth 11 or 12 times? Just by that analysis, you’d be down by a quarter or 30 percent. So there’s a huge amount of downside.” #3 Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management: “Nothing goes (down) in a straight line, but the emerging market problems will accelerate and it will spread to the very overbought and the very overvalued stock markets and economies in the West. So stock markets are now starting a secular bear trend which will last for many years, and we could see falls of massive proportions. At the end of this, the wealth that has been created in the last few decades will be destroyed.” #4 Peter Schiff: “The crisis is imminent,” Schiff said. “I don’t think Obama is going to finish his second term without the bottom dropping out. And stock market investors are oblivious to the problems.” “We’re broke, Schiff added. “We owe trillions. Look at our budget deficit; look at the debt to GDP ratio, the unfunded liabilities. If we were in the Eurozone, they would kick us out.” #5 Gerald Celente: “This selloff in the emerging markets, with their currencies going down and their interest rates going up, it’s going to be disastrous and there are going to be riots everywhere...So as the decline in their economies accelerates, you are going to see the civil unrest intensify.”

SRSRocco (via Silver Doctors): As we continue to witness orchestrated take-downs in the paper price of silver, the real market rigging is taking place in another industry. After the price of silver fell 5% in a twenty-four hour period of time, precious metals investors are once again concerned about the future outlook of the shiny metal. If psychology is the key to market trading, the Fed and its member banks have done an excellent job destroying market sentiment in silver currently. I say currently, because “ALL” fiat currencies and Ponzi schemes collapse. There are no exceptions. Precious metals investors need to understand that in order for this Grand Derivatives Ponzi Scheme to continue, the price of gold and silver have to be controlled to keep the masses from waking up. To keep the public purchasing worthless 401k’s, IRA’s, bonds, most equities, pension plans, CD’s and etc, the OUT OF SITE, OUT OF MIND TACTIC is used by the Fed, U.S. Treasury and member banks. When the price of gold and silver move up too high, this puts a kink in the fiat monetary authorities game plan. The Fed and banks have no use for a public that is WELL INFORMED AND AWAKE. As long as Americans continue to behave and purchase the crap the U.S. Treasury and banks sell them… everything is fine.

Ronald-Peter Stoferle (via King World News): Today the main factor influencing financial markets seems to be the anticipation of central bank actions. Historical market patterns have been radically altered over recent years. Since 2009 the Fed has reacted to every economic slowdown by introducing fresh easing measures, so that a paradoxical situation can be observed by now: disappointing macroeconomic data lead to price increases in stocks, as a continuation, respectively expansion of the QE program is priced in. Better than expected macroeconomic data on the other hand lead most of the time to price declines, as a reduction of future QE is anticipated. Prior to the beginning of QE1, the historic correlation between the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the S&P 500 Index was 20%. Since 2009, this correlation has increased to 86%. The expansion of the money supply thus has had a bigger effect on the stock market than the trend of corporate profits. This relationship has been acknowledged by the Federal Reserve who argued in a study that, absent intervention by the central bank, the S&P 500 would be 50% lower.

Michael Snyder (The Economic Collapse): The Dow has already fallen more than 1000 points from the peak of the market.(16,588.25) back in late December. This is the first time that we have seen the Dow drop below its 200-day moving average in more than a year, and there are many that believe that this is just the beginning of a major stock market decline. Meanwhile, things are even worse in other parts of the world. For example, the Nikkei is now down about 1700 points from its 2013 high. This is causing havoc all over Asia, and the sharp movement that we have been seeing in the USD/JPY is creating a tremendous amount of anxiety among Forex traders. For those that are not interested in the technical details, what all of this means is that global financial markets are starting to become extremely unstable.

Harry Wilson (The Telegraph): The growing problems in the Chinese banking system could spill over into a wider financial crisis, one of the most respected analysts of China’s lenders has warned. Charlene Chu, a former senior analyst at Fitch in Beijing and now the head of Asian research at Autonomous Research, said the rapid expansion of foreign-currency borrowing meant a crisis in China’s financial system was becoming a bigger risk for international banks. “One of the reasons why the situation in China has been so stable up to this point is that, unlike many emerging markets, there is very, very little reliance on foreign funding. As that changes, it obviously increases their vulnerability to swings in foreign investor appetite,” said Ms Chu in an interview with The Telegraph. Ms Chu has been warning since 2009 about the growth of a shadow banking system in China that has helped fuel the credit expansion seen in the country in the wake of the Western financial crisis. However, fears are growing that the build-up of foreign borrowing by the Chinese, particularly in US dollars, is creating an even greater build-up of risk than that seen before the crisis of 2008.

Ron Paul: The loss of our basic right to determine our own health care including Forced Vaccinations is coming and in many cases the precursors already exist. When We The People no longer have the right to decide what goes into our bodies and are forced to acquiesce to government mandates on such issues as Vaccinations then tyranny is no longer a possibility … it is a fact!

Bertrand Russell: “Education should aim at destroying free will, so that, after pupils have left school, they shall be incapable, throughout the rest of their lives, of thinking or acting otherwise than as their schoolmasters would have wished. . . . Diet, injections, and injunctions will combine, from a very early age, to produce the sort of character and the sort of beliefs that the authorities consider desirable, and any serious criticism of the powers that be will become psychologically impossible.” The Impact of Science on Society, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1953, p. 50.

Bill Holter (Mile Franklin): The "we owe it to ourselves" explanation of our national debt is pure hogwash. The thought process is that since "we owe it to ourselves" who cares how much total debt we have because it just doesn't matter. If we defaulted, we would only be defaulting on ourselves so no harm no foul. From one angle, let's look at this from a balance sheet perspective. If we "owe" something but that "something" is also an asset then they just cancel each other out right? Well yes, sort of but you also must look at this from a "quality" standpoint. If we owe "too much" and the debt becomes unpayable from a practical or mathematical standpoint then just how "good" is the asset (Treasury bond) that we claim on our balance sheet? From another perspective, do we really "owe it to ourselves"? No, we owe China alone over $3 trillion followed by the Japanese and other foreigners. Switching gears, the Fed has built up a balance sheet over $4 trillion...which we "owe to ourselves" because it is the "Federal" reserve. Sorry to burst your bubble but the "Fed" is a private institution privately owned I believe by 13 families mostly of European background. Mayer Rothschild himself said that he didn't care who the king was or which party was in power, he only wanted control of the "issuance" of money and from there he could control everything ...which is exactly how and why the Federal Reserve was chartered in the first place.

Harvey: Argentina has lost 2 billion dollars in a two week period and now the burn rate is slightly over 4 billion per month. The foreign reserves (almost all USA) is now 28 billion dollars of which included in the figure is 61.74 tonnes of gold (2.461 billion usa dollars). You will recall that the Paris club got angry at Nestor Kirchner (then President of Argentina) who in 2002 decided to purchase 55 tonnes of gold instead of repaying its debt after defaulting.

Dr Gary Null extensively documents the junk science and lies about vaccines which do nada at best, and harm most likely. One of the inventors of the Gardasil vaccine admitted in the huge conference in Reston, VA she could no longer sleep at night due to knowing she participated in the cover up behind Gardasil (can’t recall her name). Vaccines violate the physicians tenet and ethical obligation to “do no harm.”

heyJoe, if you want some recent DS: comments, check out these links. But a warning: these links are not for the faint of heart: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/612760#comment-612760, https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/612767#comment-612767, https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/612776#comment-612776

****************

Harvey's comments on Monday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed up $20.20 at $1260.20 (Comex closing time). Silver was up 28 cents to $19.39.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM

Gold: $1258.00

Silver: $19.33

Friday, Jan 31st Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/02/feb-3gld-remains-constantslv-rises-by.html

Total, Jan (Silver), Feb (Gold), Mar (Silver) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI fell by 308 contracts as silver was unchanged in price on Friday. The total OI now rests tonight at 146,387. contracts. The non active February silver contract month saw its OI fall by 109 contracts down to 216. We had 181 notices filed on Friday and thus we gained 72 contracts of silver standing in February.The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI fell by 1136 contracts to 89,241.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest fell again today by 2,505 contracts from 376,311 down top 373,806 as gold was down $2.10 on Friday. We are now in the big active month of February and here the OI fell by 3,128 contracts to 5,865. We had only 55 notices filed on Friday so we lost 3073 contracts or 307,300 oz. The next non active gold contract month is March and here the OI fell by 108 contracts. The next big active contract month is April and here the OI rose by 131 contracts up to 230,457.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was fair coming in at 32,959 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was good at 43,308 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was poor at 116,302 contracts as many players have opted out of playing at the Comex. The confirmed volume on Friday was also fair coming in at 127,213.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had tiny activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 0 customer deposits:

Total customer deposit: nil oz

We had 2 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 89,863.26 ozii) Out of HSBC: 21,764.40 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 111,627.600 oz

We had 1 adjustment today

i) from the Brinks vaults: 495,957.70 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and into the dealer account. We should see a settlement here shortly next week.

Registered (dealer) silver: 50.729 million oz

Total of all silver: 179.297 million oz.

In Gold:

Quote:

Today we had some activity in the Comex gold vaults today but still no gold enters the dealer and no gold enters any vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 0 tiny customer deposits:

Total customer deposits: nil oz

We had 2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 32.15 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 60,129.65 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 60,129.65 oz.

Today we had 0 adjustments.

Thus we have the following with respect to JPMorgan's inventory:

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 87,071.35 oz or 2.708 tonnes.

JPM customer inventory remains tonight at: 728,956.437 oz or 22.673 tonnes

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices stopped by JPMorgan customer account.

The total dealer Comex gold remains tonight at 439,900.008 oz or only 13.68 tonnes of gold . However this will decline in inventory once settlement occurs. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,081,261.89 oz or 220.25 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks (Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) resting tonight at only 10.896 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 88,532.124 oz or 2.753 tonnes

ii) HSBC: 174,742.211 oz or 5.435 tonnes

iii) JPMorgan: 87,071,35 oz or 2.708 tonnes

Total: 10.896 tonnes

Brinks dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain constant tonight at only 85,140.4 oz or 2.648 tonnes. A few months ago they had over 13 tonnes of gold at its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 134 notices filed for 670,000 oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had only 4 notices served upon our longs for 400 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 315 x 5,000 oz per contractor 1,575,000 oz to which we add the difference between the OI standing for February (216) minus the number of contracts served today (134) x 5,000 oz

Thus in summary, for first day notice:

315 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 1,575,000 oz + (216) OI standing for February - (134) number of notices filed today x 5000 oz = 1,985,000 oz, a very good showing for silver in this generally weak delivery month of February.

In gold:

Quote:
In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in December, I take the number of contracts served so far this month at 59 x 100 oz = 5900 oz to which I add the difference between the open interest standing for February: (5865) x 100 oz minus the notices sent down for today (4) x 100 oz to give us what will stand for the month. In summary: 59 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this February month or 5900 oz + (5865 notices) - ( 4) notices filed today x 100 oz = 592,000 oz or 18.41 tonnes of gold. This still exceeds the registered gold inventory at the comex. The bankers no doubt will try and use fiat to buy out some contracts as no gold can be seen entering the comex vaults. As you will see below we have only 10.896 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 13.544 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we still end up with a total dealer gold of only 13.6827 tonnes. We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except small deposits from Brinks. In Summary: i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 13.6827 tonnes. ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 728,956.437 (22.673 tonnes after losing 10 tonnes of gold) ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 87,071.35 oz (2.708 tonnes) iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 10.896 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December and February are the busiest months for the gold calender . In going back over the data for the month of December and January, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer: 3.7 tonnes 1.92 tonnes 1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December) plus we had 2,700.600 oz ( jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes plus (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia plus 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014) plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes + 0.006 tonnes and last Thursday's 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements. We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now 0.4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3714 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + .4914 - 16.310 tonnes) Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 10.896 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3714 tonnes still outstanding. Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 8.188 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3714 tonnes of gold still outstanding. The fun will begin in February especially if we have a large amount of physical gold standing!!

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,093 down 1.53%. WTI March crude was 96.67 down 0.82. Brent crude was 106.04 down 0.36. The spread between Brent and WTI was 9.37 up 0.46. The 30 year US Treasury bond was down 0.0800 at 3.5400. The 10 year T-Note was down 0.0900 at 2.5800. The dollar was down 0.17 at 81.08. The PPT/Dow was 15,372.80 down 326.05. Silver closed at 19.34 up 0.17. The GSR was 65.0000 up 0.0078 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 61.48 down 1.09 (1.74%). March wheat was up 8.00 at 563.750. March corn was up 1.75 at 435.75. April lean hogs were down 1.950 at 92.850. March feeder cattle were down 1.425 at 168.000. March copper was down 0.014 at 3.184. March natural gas was down 0.038 at 4.905. April coal was down 0.55 at 56.30.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Mon, Feb 3, 2014 - 10:04pm ajwgator
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Thanks AJWGator

Thanks, AJWGator. If it was not for regular readers like yourself, there would be no point in doing this. I very much appreciate the "thank you" and your continued readership.

Thanks,

DayStar

Mon, Feb 3, 2014 - 10:46pm
heyJoe
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@DayStar

Sadly, nothing surprises or shocks me anymore. These are the realities of our times.

Tue, Feb 4, 2014 - 7:34pm
Axil
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Joined: Apr 13, 2013
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Again ! Thanks for the HO thread

Let me chime in my personal appreciation of your efforts DayStar. I enjoy yours and Mr Fix's commentaries on current events. Thanks for all that you do and thanks for the "DOTS" link. I'm finding it all very "illuminating" ... ... to say the least !

Blessings

Tue, Feb 4, 2014 - 10:07pm
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~~Harvey 4 Feb 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Tuesday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

Rick Rule (via King World News): What’s been interesting during this decline, at least up to this point, is that gold has found a bid as a safe haven. Often during broad-based declines, gold and silver decline with everything else because the sell decisions are made by margin clerks. So it is interesting, at least in the near-term, to see the separation of global equity markets and precious metals markets. This may represent safe haven and value-based buying, or the fact that the physical markets, which have been extremely strong, are beginning to get the upper hand against the financial futures or paper markets -- where volumes have been steadily declining.

Harvey: Today the crooks decided to suppress the price of gold and silver due to negative news coming from Japan and China as both the Nikkei and the Shanghai composite sank. The big news today is the rise in GLD inventory. No doubt we are witnessing an increase in demand for shares as some players are anxious to get their hands on gold. The bankers also wish to obtain shares so they can cash their shares to obtain gold inventory and send this off to Shanghai. This should be the death knell for our bankers, as sooner or later the Bank of England runs out of metal. The front month GOFO is in backwardation, and the other two months are moving in that direction. GLD: Gold gained a huge 3.89 tonnes of gold and stands at 797.05. SLV: Silver was unchanged at 10,095.06 tonnes.

Stephen Leeb (via King World News): I have told you on numerous occasions that I believe gold is headed over $10,000 an ounce. But I want to talk about silver for a moment. The industrial uses for silver are continuing to increase, particularly in the use of photovoltaics. Furthermore, most of the silver that we have in this world comes from lead, zinc, copper and gold. If you look at silver’s performance relative to these other metals it has been much worse over the past several years. The price of silver hasn’t really done anything, but yet the demand for silver is much, much higher. So something strange is going on in the silver market, Eric. Someone is manipulating the price of silver, but who in the hell is doing it? But I think silver under $20 is a major buy. The price just doesn’t make sense. I know there is a tremendous amount of demand, but where is the supply coming from? There is enormous demand from China for silver, and from all of the global mints for investment. Again, where is this silver coming from? Also, I have reason to believe that the Chinese are stockpiling silver for their future infrastructure needs. So I am not normally a conspiracy theorist, but something strange is going on in the silver market. But I think whoever is manipulating the price of silver is not going to be able to hold it down for much longer. DS: Why does Leeb have to defend himself against being a conspiracy theorist? Tell the truth, and let the chips fall where they may. However, where the silver coming from is a question I also had for a long time. It does not appear to be moving out of Comex or SLV. I have a couple of guesses, but that's what they are: guesses. One is, the elites foresaw this shortage of silver as a result of their price controls, and they stockpiled silver back in the 30s which is one reason why there was such a dirth of currency in those days. The other is that the elites are dishording some of an ancient stash. In the 1300s the Venetian banks had acquired about one third of all the silver in Europe. Both possibilities could be in play or others I have not considered. For example, the Vatican has very large stashes of silver, and they are the central player in this saga. They could be using the Vatican silver to suppress the silver market.

Richard Russell (via X22Report): I’d be lying if I said that I wasn’t worried about the way things are going. Frankly, I’m truly scared for myself, my family and the nation. I have the sinking feeling that the stock market is on the edge of a crash. If that happens, investor sentiment will turn quickly bearish. And the bear market will start feeding on itself. Ironically, the recent action occurred in the face of almost insane bullishness on the part of the crowd and on the part of investors. I’ve been writing about the stock market for over 60 years and I can’t remember a time when I was so filled with foreboding regarding what lies ahead. The primary trend of the market, like the tide of the ocean, is irresistible, and waits for no man. What scares me the most in this current situation is that I see no clear island of safety. DS: Buy physical gold, Richard, buy gold!

Marc Farber (via X22Report): Marc Faber warns: “Emerging economies have practically no growth and we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than strategists are willing to believe,” he adds and this is “causing a vicious circle to the downside” in inflated asset markets as most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging markets. Faber suggests Treasuries as a safe haven in the short-term; but is nervous of their value in the long-term as “debt is becoming burdensome on the system. “I don’t like [10-year Treasuries] for the long-term because the maximum you can earn is something like 2.65 percent per annum for the next 10 years, but Treasuries are expected to rally because of economic weakness and a stock market decline. In the last few years at least there was a flight into quality – that is, a flight into Treasurys.” On China and shadow banking defaults: “China can handle it by printing money but it will again have unintended negative consequences… but the problem is real… but it’s not just in China…” Faber warned of the risks of the present global credit bubble and said another slowdown could follow on the back of rising consumer debt levels – which had previously helped to create growth. “Total credit as a percent of the global economy is now 30 percent higher than it was at the start of the economic crisis in 2007, we have had rapidly escalating household debt especially in emerging economies and resource economies like Canada and Australia and we have come to a point where household debt has become burdensome on the system—that is, where an economic slowdown follows.”

Nat Rudarakanchana (Investing.com): Mexico’s pension funds have shown fresh interest in gold, after the lifting of years of strict investment regulations, according to the World Gold Council. Legislation from 2012 allowed Mexican pension funds to invest in gold and commodities in 2013, and invest more freely in foreign assets. Japan’s pension funds, who together hold the world’s second largest pool of retirement assets, have also gravitated towards gold. “I spoke to many of the pension funds in Mexico last year,” Artigas told reporters in New York on Monday. “Many of them are interested…They need to get a certification for investing in commodities. But once they do, it’ll be likely that they’ll start investing.” Mexican pension fund purchases of gold may amount to dozens of metric tons at most, in a market which demands over 4000 tons annually. But there are already fifteen Japanese pension funds buying gold through exchange-traded funds, who may make a larger impact, according to William Rhind, who handles institutional investors for the council.

Harvey: This does not look good: Russia cancels its second straight sovereign government bond auction due to lack of bids. The yield on its 2028 government sovereign bond is yielding today around 8.58% as the ruble has weakened 6.9% already in 2014 and among all emerging nations the ruble is the worst performing after the Argentinian peso which is a basket case.

David McWilliams: These are serious days for the Fifth Republic. Talking to French people, you get a sense that the country is in an ongoing crisis which is structural. Unlike Ireland, France didn’t have a boom/bust, credit-driven bubble which went wallop. Its predicament is more one of a lack of any real direction, demanding a re-thinking of its whole economic model. At the moment, the current account deficit is a reflection of the fact that France can’t afford its brilliant welfare state. The budget deficit is financed effortlessly because the world believes that France is at the centre of the European project and it simply could never have a current account financing crisis. I am not sure about this. Italy and Spain, two huge economies in difficulty, both had near-death experiences in the financial markets last year. Could this happen in France? It has to be a possibility.

Mac Slavo (SHTFPlan): U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia at a recent event where law students asked the judge about the internment of Japanese-Americans during World War II. "Well of course Korematsu was wrong. And I think we have repudiated in a later case. But you are kidding yourself if you think the same thing will not happen again. That’s what was going on — the panic about the war and the invasion of the Pacific and whatnot. That’s what happens. It was wrong, but I would not be surprised to see it happen again, in time of war. It’s no justification, but it is the reality." Mac Slavo: There will come a time in America when panic grips the nation. There will be riots, violence, and bloodshed resulting from any number of plausible scenarios like the collapse of our economic and monetary systems. When this happens the government will implement their continuity plans. Martial law will be declared. FEMA camps will be activated. If you’re paying attention you can already see the signs everywhere. The government of the United States is preparing for a widespread event that, based on their recent activities, will require the deployment of armed police, military and even a multi-million strong civilian security force. This is happening and a Supreme Court Justice of the United States just confirmed that there will be no stopping it.

Koos Jansen (In Gold We Trust): China is in the top ten nations in terms of gold holdings, but initially held only a small fraction of gold relative to its total FX reserves. A big problem for China has been buying large quantities of physical gold without increasing the price. For this reason China’s strategy has been to be as secretive as possible about its gold purchases. They don’t disclose their gold import numbers, nor any interim changes in official gold holdings. They hide their dire hunger for the yellow metal to simply bargain a better price. China’s main objective is to buy as much gold for as little dollars. The main objective of the US is to devalue the dollar. The US debt problem has created the necessity to devalue the dollar in order to shrink their debt (and boost export). China holds at least $1.3 trillion in FX exchange which will be wiped out by a US dollar devaluation. The US and China have a strong trade relationship; Both benefit from China exporting cheap goods to the US. The US and China share a mutual interest in holding the value of the dollar in check for trading. Can it be these two mighty countries agreed in early 2013 to support the value of the dollar for the time being, while heavily suppressing the price of gold in the paper markets to allow China to accumulate as much of the yellow metal as needed? This would surely provide the best outcome for both after what inevitably will happen: a devaluation of the US dollar and a revaluation of gold.

Harry Wilson (The Telegraph): Charlene Chu: “The banking sector has extended $14 trillion to $15 trillion in the span of five years. There’s no way that we are not going to have massive problems in China,” she says. Behind these problems lie a baffling range of “trusts”, “wealth management products” and foreign-currency borrowings that have allowed indebtedness to expand even as the authorities have attempted to clamp down on mainstream lending by the big banks. Chu has explained the creation – from a standing start just five years ago – of a shadow banking industry in China that today is responsible for as many loans in terms of volume as the country’s entire mainstream financial system. A default of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China trust was averted, but Ms Chu remains clear that the linkage between the official banking system and its shadow twin remains a threat. Many take comfort that foreign currency reserves, estimated at close to $4 trillion, could be used to rescue the financial system in a crisis. Chu says such optimism is wishful thinking. “I believe [the FX reserves] can’t be used in their entirety by any means because they are offset by the other side of the balance sheet of the PBOC [People’s Bank of China]. Because of that, you can’t just run down one side of the balance sheet, the asset side, and not deal with the liability side of the PBOC balance sheet.” “The critical question is that, at some point are these one-off issues going to turn into a very big wave of defaults? That is going to be very difficult for the authorities to manage in the same way that they have been able to manage the one-offs.”

Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): When the global and systemic Ponzi scheme(s) in anything and everything financial does finally unwind the "perception" will change and the reality that gold and silver actually are money will become apparent. It is at this point that the global mining industry will again be perceived as "important", actually a necessity! While mining is considered a joke or a sideshow right now, an economy cannot perform or sustain without "money". When the current freely created "monies" blow up, and they will, the "production" of real money will come into fashion again. Many of you do not know that 100+ years ago the mining industry was considered like a utility that was a suitable investment for widows and orphans. They were like banks that truly stood on a solid foundation and paid stable dividends. Even for those who do not believe in mining but do understand gold and silver as money...someone, somewhere must "create" money supply in the future and that would be the world's mines. Please remember what JP Morgan and Mayer Rothschild said, "gold is money, everything else is credit" and "give me control over a country's money supply and I care not who its ruler is" respectively. They were correct when they made these statements and are still correct to this day.

Harvey: This Reuters' story is huge as we learn that European banks have 3 trillion dollars worth of exposure to the emerging nations debt. European banks have loaned in excess of $3 trillion to emerging markets, more than four times US lenders. The biggest risk is that a jump in interest rates sparks defaults on loans. The huge derivative losses will be devastating to these banks on top of the huge losses on sovereign bonds from the Club Med European countries (Italy, Spain, Greece, Cyprus Portugal).

Graham Summers (Phoenix Research Capital): We find it truly extraordinary that anyone is surprised the financial system is under duress again. After all, what have the Central Banks accomplished in the last five years? 1) Did they clear out the bad debts that caused the 2008 collapse? NOPE 2) Did they implement structural reforms to insure another 2008 didn’t happen? NOPE 3) Did they punish fraud or corruption in any way to insure that the system was clean? NOPE So what did they do? They cut interest rates over 500 times and funneled over $10 trillion into the financial system, over 98% of which went to the very players (key banks) who nearly blew up the world in 2008. And people are actually surprised that the system is back in trouble again? Would you be surprised if giving another shot of heroin to a drug addict who was in a coma didn’t bring him to health?

****************

Harvey's comments on Tuesday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed down $8.70 at $1251.70 (Comex closing time). Silver was up 1 cent to $19.40.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM

Gold: $1255.00

Silver: $19.50

Monday, Feb 3rd Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/02/feb4gld-advances-by-389-tonnesslv.html

Total, Feb(Gold), Mar (Silver), Apr (Gold) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI rose by 1378 contracts as silver was up in price to the tune of 28 cents yesterday. The total OI now rests tonight at 147,765 contracts. The non active February silver contract month saw its OI fall by 56 contracts down to 160. We had 134 notices filed yesterday and thus we gained 78 contracts of silver standing in February. The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI rose by 240 contracts to 89,481.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest fell again today by 2,673 contracts from 373,806 down to 371,133 as gold was up $20.20 yesterday. In the big active month of February the OI fell by 1,072 contracts to 4,793. We had only 4 notices filed yesterday so we lost 1068 contracts or 106,800 oz will not stand. The next non active gold contract month is March and here the OI fell by 107 contracts. The next big active contract month is April and here the OI fell by 1338 contracts down to 229,119.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was poor coming in at 25,795 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was good at 41,350 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was poor at 92,522 contracts as many players have opted out of playing at the Comex. The confirmed volume yesterday was also poor coming in at 133,401.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had tiny activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into CNT: 17,074.10 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 1002.00 oz (another of those perfectly round deposits)

Total customer deposit: 18,076.10 oz

We had 1 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) out of Delaware: 2045.64 oz

In Gold:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into HSBC: 60,097.498 oz (arrived from yesterday's withdrawal from Scotia)

ii) Into Scotia: 4,822.500 oz

Total customer deposits: 64,919.998 oz

We had 0 customer withdrawals:

Total customer withdrawals: nil oz.

Today we had 0 adjustments.

Thus we have the following with respect to JPMorgan's inventory.

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 87,071.35 oz or 2.708 tonnes.

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan's dealer account and 0 notices were issued from its client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 253 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan's dealer (house) account or 0% of the issuance and 16 notices were stopped by JPMorgan's customer account.

The total dealer Comex gold rests tonight at 439,900.008 oz or only 13.683 tonnes of gold. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,146,181.888 oz or 222.276 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks (Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) resting at only 10.896 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 88,532.124 oz or 2.754 tonnes.

ii) HSBC: 174,742.211 oz or 5.435tonnes.

iii) JPMorgan: 8,707,135 oz or 270.828 tonnes.

Total: 10.896 tonnes.

Brinks' dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain tonight at 85,140.4 oz or 2.648 tonnes. A few months ago Brinks had over 13 tonnes of gold in its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 141 notices filed for 705,000 oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had only 253 notices served upon our longs for 25,300 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in December, I take the number of contracts served so far this month at 312 x 100 oz = 31,200 oz to which I add the difference between the open interest standing for February: (4793) x 100 oz minus the notices sent down for today (253) x 100 oz to give us what will stand for the month.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in February, I take the number of contracts served so far this month at 312 x 100 oz = 31,200 oz to which I add the difference between the open interest standing for February: (4793) x 100 oz minus the notices sent down for today (253) x 100 oz to give us what will stand for the month.

In summary:

312 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this February month or 31,200 oz + (4793 notices) - (253) notices filed today x 100 oz = 485,200 oz or 15.09 tonnes of gold.

This still exceeds the registered gold inventory at the Comex. The bankers no doubt will try and use fiat to buy out some contracts as no gold can be seen entering the Comex vaults.

As you will see below we have only 10.896 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 13.544 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 13.6827 tonnes. We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except small deposits from Brinks.

In Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 13.6827 tonnes.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 728,956.437 (22.673 tonnes after losing 10 tonnes of gold)

ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 87,071.35 oz (2.708 tonnes)

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 10.896 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December and February are the busiest months for the gold calender.

In going back over the data for the month of December and January, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

plus We had 2,700.600 oz ( jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes

plus (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia

plus 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes + 0.006 tonnes and last Thursday's 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments

Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now 0.4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3714 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + 0.4914 - 16.310 tonnes)

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 10.896 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3714 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 8.188 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3714 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

Selected Commodities

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,084.00, up 0.82%. WTI March crude was 97.68 up 1.01. Brent crude was 105.78 down 0.26. The spread between Brent and WTI was 8.10 down 1.27. The 30 year US Treasury bond was up 0.0500 at 3.5900. The 10 year T-Note was up 0.0400 at 2.6200. The dollar was up 0.02 at 81.10. The PPT/Dow was 15445.24 up 72.44. Silver closed at 19.51 up 0.17. The GSR was 64.2952 down 0.7048 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 62.75 up 1.27 (2.07%). March wheat was up 20.75 at 584.500. March corn was up 6.00 at 441.75. April lean hogs were up 0.275 at 93.125. March feeder cattle were down 1.025 at 166.975. March copper was up 0.008 at 3.192. March natural gas was up 0.470 at 5.375. April coal was up 0.03 at 56.33.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Tue, Feb 4, 2014 - 10:10pm
DayStar
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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Thanks for your expression of

Thanks for your expression of gratitude, Axil. I think Mr. Fix enjoys writing. I know I do, especially when folks seem to appreciate what I write.

Thanks,

DayStar

Wed, Feb 5, 2014 - 10:34pm
DayStar
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Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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~~Harvey 5 Feb 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Wednesday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

Debarati Roy (Bloomberg): Silver prices, which jumped the most in more than four months yesterday, may extend a rally today as as signs that the U.S. economy is slowing boosted the appeal of haven assets. Silver and gold are rebounding after declines last year that were the biggest since 1981. A brightening growth outlook prompted the Federal Reserve to start cutting stimulus in December. DS: If the economy is brightening, why are stocks falling and wealth is looking for a safe haven in gold and silver?

Harvey: So far the bankers are still in control of the gold and silver market as gold jumped to 74 early this morning on the poor ADP jobs report only to be repelled back to the 55 range. The good news today is that the GLD inventory levels held constant again and also gold seems to be moving again into backwardation. The GOFO one month is in backwardation and the two and three months are headed in that direction. GLD: Gold was unchanged at 797.05 tonnes. SLV: Silver had a slight loss of 141,000 oz and stands at 10,090.68 tonnes.

Bloomberg: Demand for physical gold and silver remains robust. The U.S. Mint has raised its silver coin supply to 850,000 ounces this week. That compares with 761,000 1 ounce American Silver Eagle coins allocated last week, Michael White, a spokesman at the U.S. Mint, told Bloomberg. Sales by the mint last month rose to 4.775 million ounces from 1.2 million ounces in December. The World Gold Council has confirmed that the all-in production costs to produce one ounce of gold is around ,200 an ounce. A drop below that level for a sustained period of time would have a significant effect on miners' production, World Gold Council Director of Investment Research Juan Carlos Artigas said yesterday. If gold dips below ,200 per ounce for a “sustained” period, serious production cutbacks are likely. About 30% of the gold mining industry becomes unprofitable if prices fall below that threshold, the council estimates. Massive capital writedowns from 2013, from the world’s largest gold miner Barrick Gold Corp. (TSE:ABX) among others, could also “impair future production for some miners,” said the council’s 2014 outlook. Global mine production is likely to hit 2,980 tons in 2013, up 4% from the year before. Gold mines can take years to come online, up to 20 years after deposits are first discovered. The industry is also beset by a shortage of qualified mining engineers. “There’s a real cost of getting it out of the ground. And that cost has to be accounted for” said the Council. The council’s view adds to existing research highlighting ,200 per ounce as a key price threshold. Declining scrap or recycled gold supply, which fell to a five-year low in 2013, exacerbates a “tight supply picture”, said Artigas.

Jeff Morganteen (CNBC): Tres Knippa believes the troubles in Japan are far worse than they seem, and the fund manager has backed up his pessimism in the form of a leveraged short position against Japanese government bonds. "They're going to have a default," Knippa told CNBC on Tuesday during an interview with "Squawk on the Street." Knippa, who runs Kenai Capital Management in Chicago, foresees Japanese officials accelerating debt problems in an ill-fated attempt to protect the country from a bond crisis. If the yen weakens enough, Japanese government bond holders won't hold onto those securities as returns decline along with the yen, he said. His comments came after Japan's Nikkei stock index ended Tuesday about 14 percent down for the year. Knippa joins noted hedge fund manager Kyle Bass in his opinion on a looming Japanese debt crisis. driven by a stagnant economy and rapidly aging population. DS: I see that Japanese demographic paraded out nearly every day. Is that really significant on a day to day basis? I don't think so. Knippa is making a bet on a Japanese government bond crash. I agree, but the problem is, "when"? The market can stay irrational longer probably than Kippa can stay solvent, just like the gold bugs have been waiting 3 years for the wave 4 moon shot in gold and silver, and they are still waiting.

Eric King (King World News): One of the greatest traders in the history of the world was Jesse Livermore. Livermore said, "“Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices ... the ticker is always on their minds. They are so engrossed with the minor ups and downs, they miss the big movements.” I wanted to highlight that particular Jesse Livermore quote today because too many KWN listeners globally fall into this trap. Many have positioned themselves in the secular bull market in gold, and yet with every break in the price of gold they begin to worry. Here is a second quote from Livermore that KWN readers and listeners should be aware of: “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” Those may seem like harsh words, but I can assure you that Jesse was trying to save people from themselves. In order to succeed at this game you must be able to look at the big picture, always ignoring minor fluctuations or even significant reactions in markets. For those market veterans that trade I will leave you with this final thought for today: Do not churn your accounts. Jesse Livermore: “There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done.” Remember, buy into bull markets as early as possible and hold. This is the only way to make the big money, don’t ever forget that.

Myra P. Saefong and William L. Watts (MarketWatch): Gold prices closed lower on Tuesday, giving back a portion of the previous day’s gains but holding ground above ,250 an ounce, as the dollar edged higher and U.S. equities saw a modest rebound. The metal’s prices also edged lower for most of the day without support from Asia, he said, where gold retailers remained largely closed until Thursday for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Bill Fleckenstein (via King World News): The gold bear market is over. We spent a lot of time testing this ,200 range. The unanimity that gold must decline was almost as strong as the one that said stocks had to go higher in 2014. So if the bear market is over, the next thing is going to be the bull market. This ,200 level has been tested and it’s not going to break. Everybody knows that the Chinese are inhaling gold. One of these days the Indians will get rid of this import tax and they will be back. At some point Americans are going to see they need it (gold). The real upside is going to be when Americans realize they need something like gold to protect themselves from the lunacy of the Fed. But there was lot of pressure brought (to the downside), and that’s over with. At the margin, when people start to see the economic activity here and worldwide for what it is, which is really labored, and they stop looking at the news through the rose-colored glasses of an 1,800 point S&P, they will see that we’ve got a recipe for huge move in gold again because these policies don’t work and they are not going to stop. And one of these days people are going to realize that inflation is slowly eating them alive, but that moment of recognition is not here yet.”

Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): Even if you have no debt, no credit cards or even no bank account...you will be affected in some way once the great unwind is over. The "great unwind" is happening right now and right before your eyes. Emerging markets and currencies are imploding as a result of the "carry trade" unwinding. The credit bubble that we live in was built over many years, actually 100 since the beginning of the Federal Reserve in 1913. The problem is that there is no more collateral left unencumbered, but in any Ponzi scheme there must always be "more fuel" coming in from new blood to feed the earlier participants. I think it's only a matter of time (a week or two?) until we hear Janet Yellen's first major announcement...taper off and an expanded QE? Of all the potential "confessors" that we were arriving at "game over" I never could have been convinced that it would be a bank. Deutsche Bank said on Friday "we've created a global debt monster". The "why now" is answered by considering we are clearly unraveling in one giant global margin call and there are no solutions to this. Once a credit collapse starts it cannot be stopped if there is no collateral left to borrow against. Even a single link in this grand financial chain can and will cause the failure of everything on both sides of it.

Bo Polny (via King World News): “Time is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages of commodities or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future.” “The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.” A big spike is coming and timing will be the key! This means 00+ gold in 2014! “I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.”

Bill Holter: This may "look" and feel like 2008 but it's not. It's not because another, bigger TARP plan 1. wouldn't be big enough, 2. would never pass public approval (yes I know, it did not the first time either), and 3. would actually destroy rather than embolden confidence. As I just wrote earlier, the problem is that there is no longer enough "unencumbered" collateral that can be leveraged. This is a problem because the only "way out" is to reflate again but there is nothing left to reflate with or "upon". From another angle, will anyone believe (for more than a few weeks) that bank deposits will be "guaranteed 100%" as they were in 2008? Or, what will the reactions be when "bail ins" rather than bailouts are used? If over a week or a weekend, balances are suddenly "pilfered" to save the bank itself...what will be the reaction by market participants? As bad as 2008 was, I think what will happen this time around will be worse, much worse. "Worse" as in our greatest fears back in 2008 will become the reality. Very seriously, the tent WILL come down because it is meant to come down. There is no way that any of the choices made or policies used over the last 10 or 20 years were done for "our benefit". Nearly everything over this timespan has had an element of "the hollowing out" of America. America once was "industry". It was a working class country...a self sufficient working class country! Ideas and ideologies have changed dramatically over the years..."policy" has helped facilitate many of these changes. I am sorry for being so negative. I normally say "I'm not being negative, I am simply being a realist and stating the facts (or truth as I see it) but I think that we are very close to a breaking point. A "breaking point" where logic (and probably law) might not prevail. This scares me greatly because I make my decisions based on logic...and the logic based on laws...laws that make good sense and are enforced. I fear that as this biggest financial bubble of all time unwinds, lawlessness will prevail while new and nonsensical (and self serving) laws are passed...and enforced. The danger of anything that is "controlled" is when control is lost...you are watching it happen right now. DS: I think Bill is right in that chaos is coming, and chaos sometimes is a manifestion of loss of control, but the fact is the controllers are controlling the descent into chaos, because it is what they want to happen. They intend to use chaos as a means to seize control, but they also intend to remove 90% of the population and the chaos will do that for them.

Zero Hedge: Following the most recent 10% correction in the Nikkei which may soon become an all out rout if the 101 level in the USDJPY doesn't hold (and then 100, and so on), all Japan suddenly has left, is the shock of soaring food and energy prices, and the hangover of declining wages that refuse to drop dropping. Case in point, last night the Japan labor ministry reported that monthly wages excluding overtime and bonus payments fell 0.2 percent in December from a year earlier to 241,525 yen on average per worker, a series of declines which has now stretched to 19 consecutive months.

Tyler Durden: While we are sure it is a very sad coincidence, on the day when Argentina decrees limits on the FX positions banks can hold and the Argentine Central Bank's reserves accounting is questioned publically, a massive fire - killing 9 people - has destroyed a warehouse archiving banking system documents. As The Washington Post reports, the fire at the Iron Mountain warehouse (which purportedly had multiple protections against fire, including advanced systems that can detect and quench flames without damaging important documents) took hours to control and the sprawling building appeared to be ruined. The cause of the fire wasn’t immediately clear - though we suggest smelling Fernandez' hands.

Zero Hedge: A month ago, Nigeria's state-owned National Petroleum oil company (NNPC) said it had accounted for all of the .8 billion in revenues that were supposed to paid to the government explaining it had spent over bn on subsidies, repairs, and losses on crude oil inventory - "no money is missing," they exclaimed. However, according to Bloomberg, Nigeria's Central Bank governor Lamido Sanusi (often seen at the footer of those emails everyone gets) proclaimed to the government's senate finance committee that NNPC hasn't accounted for billion in revenue. "There is billion that has not come back to us - the burden of proof is on NNPC."That is 8% of GDP!

****************

Harvey's comments on Wednesday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed up $5.60 at $1257.30 (Comex closing time). Silver was up 38 cents to $19.78.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM

Gold: $1258.00

Silver: $19.90

Tuesday, Feb 4th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/02/feb-5gld-remains-constantslv-loses.html

Total, Feb(Gold), Mar (Silver), Apr (Gold) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI rose again by 1398 contracts as silver was up in price to the tune of 1 cent yesterday. The total OI now rests tonight at 149,163 contracts closing in on its all time highs. The non active February silver contract month saw its OI fall by 141 contracts down to 19. We had 141 notices filed yesterday and thus we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing in February.The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI rose by 369 contracts to 89,850.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest fell again today by 2,854 contracts from 371,133 all the way down to 368,279 as gold was down $8.70 yesterday. In the big active month of February the OI fell by 735 contracts to 4,058. We had only 253 notices filed yesterday so we lost 482 contracts or 48,200 oz will not stand. The next non active gold contract month is March and here the OI fell by 28 contracts. The next big active contract month is April and here the OI fell by 2597 contracts down to 226,522.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was excellent coming in at 54,125 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair at 32,058 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was fair at 130,933 contracts as many players have opted out of playing at the Comex. The confirmed volume yesterday was also poor coming in at 102,924.

Inventory Numbers

In silver:

Quote:

Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.

we had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 1 customer deposits:

i) Into Brinks: 420,032.110 oz

Total customer deposit: 420,032.110 oz

We had 2 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) out of Delaware: 1989.70 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 581,466.20 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 583,455.90 oz

We had 0 adjustments today

In Gold:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 withdrawals.

Total dealer deposits and withdrawals: zilch

We had 0 customer deposits:

Total customer deposits: nil oz

We had 0 customer withdrawals:

Total customer withdrawals: nil oz.

Today we had 3 major adjustments:

i) out of Brinks vaults: 2,466.08 oz was adjusted out of the customer. Also 522.617 oz mysteriously appears into Brinks dealer account and thus 2,988.699 oz was adjusted into the dealer.

ii) Out of JPMorgan: 17,169.512 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account at jPMorgan.

iii) Out of Scotia; 36,148.181 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account.

In summary on the adjustments: 56,306.392 oz lands into the dealer account

which will be used in the settlement process.

Thus we have the following with respect to JPMorgan's inventory:

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 104,240.862 oz or 3.24 tonnes

Today, 643 notices were issued from JPMorgan's dealer account and 0 notices were issued from its client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1336 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan's dealer (house) account or 0% of the issuance and 0 notices were stopped by JPMorgan's customer account. It seems that all the stopping or receiving of contracts is from the house of Morgan right under the watchful eye of the regulators who do nothing as JPM's concentration in the paper gold Comex advances again.

The total dealer Comex gold rests tonight at 496,206.4 oz or only 15.434 tonnes of gold. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,146,704.505 oz or 222.293 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks (Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) resting at only 12.553 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 124,680.305 oz or 3.878 tonnes.

ii) HSBC: 174,742.211 oz or 5.435tonnes.

iii) JPMorgan: 104,240.862 oz or 3.242 tonnes.

Total: 12.553 tonnes.

Brinks' dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain tonight at 88,129.099 oz or 2.741 tonnes. A few months ago Brinks had over 13 tonnes of gold in its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 8 notices filed for 40,000 oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had only 1024 notices served upon our longs for 102,400 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 462 x 5,000 oz per contract or 2,320,000 oz to which we add the difference between the OI standing for February (19) minus the number of contracts served today (8) x 5,000 oz.

Thus in summary:

462 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 2,320,000 oz + (19) OI standing for February - (8) number of notices filed today x 5000 oz = 2,375,000 oz,

the same as yesterday.

This is a very good showing for silver in this generally weak delivery month of February.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in December, I take the number of contracts served so far this month at 1336 x 100 oz = 133,600 oz to which I add the difference between the open interest standing for February: (4058) x 100 oz minus the notices sent down for today (1024) x 100 oz to give us what will stand for the month.

In summary:

1336 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this February month or 133,600 oz + (4058 notices) - (1024) notices filed today x 100 oz = 437,000 oz or 13.59 tonnes of gold.

This still exceeds the registered gold inventory at the Comex. The bankers no doubt will try and use fiat to buy out some contracts as no gold can be seen entering the Comex vaults.

As you will see below we have only 12.553 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 15.294 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we still end up with a total dealer gold of only 15.43 tonnes. We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except from adjustments.

Inventory Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 15.43 tonnes.

i) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 711,786.925 (22.13 tonnes

ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 104,240.862 oz (2.708 tonnes)

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC,Scotia) have collectively only 12.553 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December and February are the busiest months for the gold calender.

In going back over the data for the month of December, January and up to today, we have now had 6 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

plus We had 2,700.600 oz ( jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes

plus (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia

plus 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 3 adjustment from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes + 0.006 tonnes and 3 weeks ago 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments

Total: 16.310 tonnes of gold Comex settlements.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now 0.4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3714 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + 0.4914 - 16.310 tonnes).

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 12.553 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3714 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 9.313 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3714 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,086.00, up 0.18%. WTI March crude was 97.48 down 0.20. Brent crude was 106.27 up 0.49. The spread between Brent and WTI was 8.79 up 0.69. The 30 year US Treasury bond was up 0.0600 at 3.6500. The 10 year T-Note was up 0.0500 at 2.6700. The dollar was down 0.04 at 81.06. The PPT/Dow was 15440.23 down 5.01. Silver closed at 19.90 up 0.39. The GSR was 63.1960 down 1.0992 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 62.19 down 0.56 (0.89%). March wheat was up 3.00 at 587.500. March corn was up 1.50 at 443.25. April lean hogs were up 1.875 at 95.000. March feeder cattle were down 0.050 at 166.925. March copper was down 0.004 at 3.189. March natural gas was down 0.345 at 5.030. April coal was up 0.50 at 56.83.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Thu, Feb 6, 2014 - 10:13pm
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~~Harvey 6 Feb 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Thursday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

William Kaye (via King World News): The problem that gold has faced since it peaked in nominal terms in 2011, is that the pricing mechanism for gold has been the Comex. The problem with the Comex is the high frequency trading algorithms and serious intervention by central banks, including the central bank for the central banks, which is the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The problem for gold is that in a highly levered fractional-reserve system, where the paper market is setting the price that mining companies and investors deal with, as long as that goes on essentially two things happen: One, people in the West who don’t understand what’s going on get scared out of gold. This is extremely unfortunate because that is essentially one of the only safe havens that exist for people today. Second, it creates this artificial and really illusionary view of the true state of the financial world. By that I mean throughout history gold has served the purpose of being an excellent barometer for flawed policies. In other words, it’s a bit like taking a thermometer when you think someone may have a fever and reading it. But the way I see it, gold is about to be liberated. I think gold will be liberated this year. I strongly believe this is part and parcel of the destruction in some of the other financial markets that have been juiced higher in recent years. But as people flock to gold, eventually there won’t be enough physical gold left for authorities to continue their suppression scheme. As the price of gold migrates higher, more and more of the mainstream population is going to wake up and understand that something is terribly wrong. As this awakening takes place, not only will it lead to more physical gold buying, but it will also lead to even more intense volatility in other financial markets, including bond and equity markets. All of this will serve to bring forward the actual day of financial Armageddon -- the actual fall off the cliff. This will be the beginning of a very disturbing secular trend not only financial markets, but more importantly for the livelihoods of billions of people around the world.

Harvey: So far the bankers are still in control of the gold and silver market as gold initially jumped to $1263 early this morning on the USA/Japan Yen ramp (see below) only to be repelled back to the $1257 range. The good news today is that the GLD inventory levels held constant again and also gold seems to be moving closer to backwardation in all months. Tomorrow is the jobs report so expect gold and silver volatility as usual. GOFO was in backwardation for the one month. GLD: Gold was unchanged and stands at 797.05 tonnes. SLV: Silver was unchanged and stands at 10,090.68.

Eric Sprott (via King World News): “You hit the wall when problems in the banking system are allowed to manifest themselves -- where some bank finally realizes, ‘Hey, we don’t have any capital here and we just can’t keep going on pretending that we are solvent when we are insolvent.’ And as we see this constant deterioration in the economic data, I think it will become apparent to everyone that things aren’t working. If stocks start going down, of course it imperils all paper assets, and the banking system owns nothing but paper assets. My biggest concern in the financial arena has always been that the banks end up with problem loans. In Spain something like up to 25% of all loans are problem loans. You just know there is no way for the banks to survive without the support of the central banks, and these central banks are getting extended here. There is only so much they can do. So you will see something (shocking) in the financial system -- maybe it’s in the stock market, maybe it’s some bank going down. The valuations are bearing no relationship to what the underlying fundamentals are today, so something is going to break somewhere along the line. So all of the problems that we had in 2008 are still around, except magnified now. So that’s the big concern -- that we all find out it was just a big Ponzi scheme and the market breaks. It’s the same decision I had to make back in 2000, before the Nasdaq crash, when I thought, ‘Boy, it looks like the Nasdaq is going to crash. What am I going to do?’ The obvious conclusion was you’ve got to own hard assets -- things like gold and silver.

Mark O'Byrne (GoldCore): Traders are positioning for what is widely expected to be a dovish press conference by Draghi, with an outside chance of another rate cut to nearly 0%. The main refinancing rate is already at a record low of 0.25% and the deposit rate is already 0%. Savers and pensioners continue to be punished by ultra loose monetary policies. The Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to keep the BOE's main interest rate at a record-low of 0.5%. The Bank of England is widely predicted also to maintain quantitative easing at £375 billion pounds, opting against following the U.S. Federal Reserve in slightly reducing debt monetisation. Ultra loose monetary policies and financial repression are set to continue for the foreseeable future which underlines the important diversification benefits of owning physical gold.

William Kaye (via King World News): While the carnage in the emerging markets has been intense, what we have seen in major Western markets has not been that big of a deal. But if we look out to 2015 and beyond, it’s likely to be very ugly for the West. We are extremely bearish just because the fundamentals in our view are bearish. The world financial system is going to implode if it stays on its current course. And if we look at what they are doing over in Japan, ‘Abenomics’ is destroying the purchasing power and the savings of its own population. This should be a crime. But what Japan is doing, just like the Western nations, is leading to a global situation that is entirely untenable. In a way, we can throw in China as well with it’s shadow banking fiasco. But the reality is that the debt bubble is just way beyond the Rubicon. There is just no way that any sensible measures can be taken globally to deal with the immense debts that have accumulated and continue to be accumulated around the world. So we are going to reach that point of reckoning, whether it’s this year or 2015. But my guess is that the ‘big crash’ is going to occur in 2015. And as soon as interest rates are reset to a level that approximates anywhere close to an historic norm, the citizens of the world are going to be subjected to financial seizures that are going to make 2008/2009 look like a warm up act. That’s the end game.”

Deutsche Presse-Agentur: The 300 tons of gold that Germany is bringing home from a New York strongroom is being transported little by little and will take until 2020 to complete, the German central bank said Thursday. A spokeswoman for the central bank in Frankfurt said that small shipments back to Germany were preferred for security reasons. The bank said 5 tons were repatriated from New York last year, along with 32 tons brought home from Paris, and the project was proceeding apace. Handelsblatt noted that insurers will cover gold shipments only by air, not by ship, and will not insure shipments of more than 1 ton at a time. Germany aims to ultimately keep only 37 per cent of its gold at the Federal Reserve in New York, where most of the world stores gold. Multi-billion-dollar transfers are easily done by simply carting the gold from one country‘s cubicle to another inside the vault.

Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): "there are no markets". Overnight the German stock market had a "glitch". In less than one minute their market was down 200 points and the market was actually closed for a few minutes. When it opened back up...it did so almost unchanged! So...the 200 point drop didn't happen? What do you suppose the German market might do when it is "discovered" that their gold (actual reserves) really is gone? Will they be able to reopen it a few minutes later with "no harm no foul"? Or how about the US markets? Including the dollar itself? When a country "runs out of reserves" what happens? Argentina anyone? When we can no longer deliver gold to China, what do you suppose the extrapolation will be? Oh yes that's right, we don't need no stinkin' reserves because we are The United States of America. We don't need any "reserves" because we ARE the reserve! We can create as much "reserves" as we'd like, whenever we'd like and we don't need any "reserves for our reserve" (if that makes any sense). We are collectively as a "globe" hanging on by a thread. A "thread" of confidence and nothing more. Bankers in mass suicide(d) mode, archives being toasted and markets doing some truly miraculous stuff...the "stuff" that confidence is made of, right?

Richard Russell: My unconscious fear is unrelenting, and it won't leave me alone. Finally, I've admitted it to myself. I'm afraid we're in a primary bear market in the economy and the stock market. I believe it's going to be an absolute “brute.” And I'm afraid of what might lie ahead. And the worst of it is that we're being deliberately lied to by the Fed and by our government. The markets (which normally tell us the truth) are being controlled and manipulated by the government and the Federal Reserve. I've asked myself why Bernanke got himself into this predicament? I believe his problem is that he studied the Great Depression strictly from the standpoint of economics and the Fed's role in the Depression. But Bernanke never studied nor understood the role of the stock market during the 1930s. DS: Russell is one of the last of the Greatest Generation. These folks held and fought for the American ideal. One aspect of that generation is they trusted their government. Russell is blinded by his world view to the immense evil that pervades our government. He cannot come to grips with the idea that Bernanke and now Yellen are purposely wrecking our economy, our money and our nation. But I will give his gut credit for smelling a skunk in the economy and telling us the Fed is lying to us.

Zero Hedge: That's right - you read it correct: "Blythe Masters, head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s commodities division, is joining an advisory committee of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Now it will be Blythe Masters on top of the one regulators that is supposed to enforce a fair, honest and efficient commodities market. In other words, you too can get a job at the CFTC if only you can answer yes to the following two questions: Has your bank manipulated energy markets under your watch, and Have you been found guilty of commodity price manipulation? It's almost as if they are explicitly telling the handful of people who still care about this entire charade to take a hike.

****************

Harvey's comments on Thursday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed up $.30 at $1257.60 (Comex closing time).

Silver was up 13 cents to $19.91.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM:

Gold: $1258.00

Silver: $19.95

Wednesday, Feb 5th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/02/feb6gld-and-slv-constantblythe-masters.html

Total, Feb(Gold), Mar (Silver), Apr (Gold) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI fell by 2,384 contracts as silver was up in price to the tune of 38 cents yesterday. The total OI now rests tonight at 146,779 contracts. The non active February silver contract month saw its OI fall by 8 contracts down to 11. We had 8 notices filed yesterday and thus we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing in February.The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI fell by 3173 contracts to 86,677.

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest rose today by 2,873 contracts from 368,279 all the way up to 371,152 as gold was up $5.60 yesterday. In the bigactive month of February the OI fell by 1051 contracts to 3,007.We had 1024 notices filed yesterday so we lost 27 contracts or 2,700 oz will not stand. The next non active gold contract month is March and here the OI rose by 36 contracts. The next big active contract month is April and here the OI rose by 2794 contracts down to 229,316.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was good coming in at 41,939 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent at 55,880 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was poor at 83,887 contracts as many players have opted out of playing gold at the Comex. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair coming in at 136,071.

Inventory Numbers

In Silver Inventory:

Quote:

Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawal:

i) Out of Scotia: 504,553.501 oz.

Total dealer withdrawal: 504,553.501 oz.

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into JPM: 504,553.501 oz (this arrived from a dealer Scotia withdrawal)

ii) Into Scotia: 394,700.57 oz.

Total customer deposit: 899,254.071 oz.

We had 3 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) out of Delaware: 246,242.119 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 60,444.19 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 2065.30 oz.

Total customer withdrawals: 308,751.609 oz.

We had 0 adjustments today.

Registered (dealer) silver: 50.732 million oz.

Total of all silver: 179.235 million oz.

In Gold Inventory:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawal.

i) Out of Scotia dealer account: 600.339 oz

Total dealer withdrawal; 600.339 oz

We had 1 Customer deposit

i) Into JPMorgan: 600.339 oz (and this arrived from Scotia dealer)

Total customer deposits: 600.339 oz

We had 1 major customer withdrawal:

i) Out of Scotia: 39,794.707 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 39,794.707 oz.

Today we had 2 major adjustments:

i) out of JPM vaults: 109,856.456 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the JPMorgan dealer account.

ii) Out of Scotia: 11,056.49 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account.

In summary on the adjustments: 120,912.94 oz lands into the dealer account which will be used in the settlement process. Thus we have the following with respect to JPMorgan's inventory:

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 214,097.318 oz or 6.659 tonnes.

Today, 891 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1036 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 49 notices stopped by JPMorgan customer account.

The total dealer Comex gold remains tonight at 616,519.007 oz or only 19.176 tonnes of gold. However, this inventory will decline once settlement occurs. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,106,909.798 oz or 221.05 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks(Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) with its gold inventory resting tonight at only 16.297 tonnes:

i) Scotia: 135,136.456 oz or 4.203 tonnes

ii) HSBC: 174,742.211 oz or 5.435 tonnes

iii) JPMorgan: 2144,097.318 oz or 6.659 tonnes

Total: 16.297 tonnes

Brinks dealer account, which did have the lion's share of the dealer gold, saw its inventory level remain constant tonight at only 88,129.099 oz or 2.741 tonnes. A few months ago they had over 13 tonnes of gold at its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 1036 notices served upon our longs for 103,600 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 462 x 5,000 oz per contract or 2,320,000 oz to which we add the difference between the OI standing for February (11) minus the number of contracts served today (0) x 5,000 oz.

Thus in summary:

462 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 2,320,000 oz + (11) OI standing for February - (0) number of notices filed today x 5000 oz = 2,375,000 oz, the same as yesterday.

This is a very good showing for silver in this generally weak delivery month of February.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in February, I take the number of contracts served so far this month at 2372 x 100 oz = 237,200 oz to which I add the difference between the open interest standing for February: (3007) x 100 oz minus the notices sent down for today (1036) x 100 oz to give us what will stand for the month.

OI Summary:

2372 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this February month or 237,200 oz + (3007 notices) - (1036) notices filed today x 100 oz = 434,300 oz or 13.50 tonnes of gold. We lost 2700 oz of gold standing in this February gold delivery month.

As you will see below we have only 16.297 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 19.038 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 19.176 tonnes. We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except from adjustments.

Dealer Inventory Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 19.176tonnes.

ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 602,530.808 (18.741 tonnes).

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 214,097.318 oz (6.659 tonnes).

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 16.297 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December and February being the busiest months for the gold calender.

In going back over the data for the months of December and January and up to today, we have now had 7 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

We had 2,700.600 oz (jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes

plus (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia

plus 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

plus 600.339 oz (.018 tonnes today, Feb 6.2014)

There were also 3 adjustments from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes + 0.006 tonnes and 3 weeks ago 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments.

Total: 16.328 tonnes of gold Comex adjustments.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now 0.4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3534 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + 0.4914 - 16.328 tonnes= 4.3534 tonnes).

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 16.297 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3534 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 9.638 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3534 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,092.00, up 0.55%. WTI March crude was 97.90 up 0.42. Brent crude was 107.19 up 0.92. The spread between Brent and WTI was 9.29 up 0.50. The 30 year US Treasury bond was up 0.0300 at 3.6800. The 10 year T-Note was up 0.0300 at 2.7000. The dollar was down 0.17 at 80.89. The PPT/Dow was 15628.53 up 188.30. Silver closed at 19.95 up 0.05. The GSR was 63.0476 down 0.1484 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 62.16 down 0.03 (0.05%). March wheat was down 6.75 at 580.750. March corn was down 0.25 at 443.00. April lean hogs were down 0.800 at 94.200. March feeder cattle were up 0.075 at 167.000. March copper was up 0.040 at 3.229. March natural gas was down 0.099 at 4.931. April coal was up 0.59 at 57.42.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Thu, Feb 6, 2014 - 10:25pm
DayStar
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Joined: Jun 14, 2011
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Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

Harvey's up!

Thu, Feb 6, 2014 - 10:31pm DayStar
Mr. Fix
Offline
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Joined: Jun 8, 2012
10803
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Seems strange,

You usually have so much more to say about it.

(They are waiting for you on Main Street)

"When the student is ready, the teacher will appear."
Thu, Feb 6, 2014 - 10:49pm
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RE: Harvey

Brevity is the essence of wit.

DayStar

Sat, Feb 8, 2014 - 12:14pm
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~~Harvey 8 Jan 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Saturday Harvey Report.

FDIC Bank Seizure Report

The FDIC did not seize any banks this week.

Commitment of Traders Report (COT)

Harvey: As many of you know, I have no faith in this data.

Gold: If you believe the data, the commercials went net short by 803 contracts and so this must be construed as bearish and yet gold advanced.

Silver: Conclusion; very bullish as the commercials go net long by 6181 contracts and silver hardly budges in price.

News and Commentary

Grant Williams (via King World News): These guys at the Fed have insisted on this mantra that ‘tapering isn’t tightening,’ which is absolute nonsense. Of course a taper is tightening and we are seeing the effects of that here in Asia where there is the sucking sound of liquidity being drained out. Yes, we have seen a wobble in the Dow, but the real pain has been felt here in Asia. But the most worrying thing that I have seen in the past couple of weeks were the comments made by the central bank governor of India, who essentially said, ‘Look, the cooperation between the world’s central banks is now gone and it’s every man for himself.’ And that’s going to turn into a problem by itself because if we don’t have these coordinated and unified interventions, actions, and interest rate policies that we’ve had, things could get very squirrelly, very quickly, in all kinds of places that most people aren’t even looking at. This is how all hell starts to break loose. We had the Asian currency crisis in 1997 and that started with the Thai baht, but it spread to all kinds of places that no one saw coming. It really feels like if the central planners are not extremely careful that we could be on the edge of another one of those catastrophic situations. Something may happen in a tiny little market somewhere and it may start a whole lot of dominos falling. I think something similar to what happened when a Brazilian hedge fund recently lost 90% of its assets in a week is going to happen with gold. One day people are going to want physical gold, and what hasn't mattered before suddenly is going to matter, because they can’t get it -- they can only get paper. When that happens, you will see a massive reset higher. The fact that it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t. When the chaos really breaks loose around the world, it won’t matter if people bought physical gold at $1,500 or $1,250, they will just be glad they own it.

Mark O'Byrne (GoldCore): Global markets are now dependent on the drug that is cheap money and any reduction in money printing and debt monetisation will likely lead to market turmoil and economic dislocations. Silver posted the longest rally since August, extending a 2014 rebound of over 3% this year as turmoil in emerging markets and slowing economic growth reignited demand for haven assets. Chinese store of wealth buyers return from a week long Lunar New Year holiday which should support physical demand. China became the world’s largest gold buyer last year.

William Kaye (via King World News): Now we are getting to the point where the authorities are recognizing the fact that there is a major problem, and this cannot go on indefinitely. Look at the destruction that has already taken place in emerging markets because of the very slight withdrawal of the most extraordinary aspects of quantitative easing. Now you have China trying to tackle, as best they can, a Leviathan in the shadow banking sector. Virtually all of the developed nations are trying to deal with the failed policies of the last several years. The problem with that is they are not going to be able to succeed. It would be one thing if the central planners had a hope in hell of coming to grips with the enormity of the problems they face, but the reality is, they don’t. So, yes, I’m very concerned about the future. I believe that ultimately the decisions that policymakers are going to be facing either this year or next year, are going to be one of default or debase. Neither of these sets of outcomes are going to be greeted well by financial markets. This will mean much lower equity markets, higher interest rates, and a global reset with respect to the existing global financial architecture. But what you are going to see in the future is going to be unprecedented. I don’t even think the experience of the Great Depression of the 1930s will properly describe what is in store for people. My fear is that as social unrest breaks out pretty much everywhere, the governments of the world will use this as an opportunity to increase the ‘Orwellian’ police state. We have already seen signs of this in many countries, including the United States. But governments will crack down even further. So that will mean a further loss of freedoms for ordinary citizens, under the premise of restoring social order. I view these trends as quite disturbing and leading to a future that is increasingly fascist in my view.

Harvey: So far the bankers are still in control of the gold and silver market as gold initially jumped to $1272 early this morning on the lousy jobs report, only to be repelled back to the $1257 range. However, during the day gold started seeing major bids as gold finished the Comex session at 1263.30 and continued in the access market where it finished at 1267. Silver was still held in check. The good news today is that the GLD inventory levels held constant again and also gold seems to be moving closer to backwardation in all months. GOFO was in backwardation in the one month. GLD: Gold was unchanged, standing at 797.05 tonnes. SLV: Silver lost 1.443 million oz and stands at 10,045.79 tonnes.

John Mauldin (via King World News): At some point when we have a traumatic event, something that really gives us a reason to have a new valuation, then I think we see the big one. I can cogently argue that it’s going to happen this year, but then I can give you tons of reasons why it won’t happen until 2016. I’m not trying to be coy, I just don’t know what is going to be the driver. I suspect it’s going to be Europe, and a European crisis is further out. Now, they could create a crisis with the stress tests they are going to be doing. My cynical nature says they are not going to hold real stress tests, so that’s not going to create a crisis that should be created. Their (European) banks are massively underfunded. But eventually the Europeans are going down because of their sovereign debt issues and budget deficit issues. They are going to have to figure out whether they want to be a fiscal union, or break up. I think they are going to stay together and it’s going to mean a massive restructuring of their treaty, but that’s in the future.

GoldCore: There is a significant and growing consensus amongst academics, independent researchers and asset allocation experts that gold is a hedging instrument and a safe haven asset. Thus, many financial professionals now believe that gold should form part of investment and savings portfolios for reasons of diversification and financial insurance. Indeed, there is now a large body of academic and independent research showing gold is a safe haven asset and showing gold’s importance in investment and pension portfolios. This allocation is in order to both enhance returns but more importantly reduce overall volatility.

Brandon Smith (Alt-Market.com): In the eight years since 2006 I have seen an undeniable steady trend of fiscal decline. I have never had any doubt that the U.S. economy as we know it was headed for total and catastrophic collapse, the only question was when, exactly, the final trigger event would occur. As I have pointed out in the past, economic implosion is a process. It grows over time, like the ice shelf on a mountain developing into a potential avalanche. It is easy to shrug off the danger because the visible destruction is not immediate, it is latent; but when the avalanche finally begins, it is far too late for most people to escape. The financial crash of 2008, the same crash which has been ongoing for years, is NOT an accident. It is a concerted and engineered crisis meant to position the U.S. for currency disintegration and the institution of a global basket currency controlled by an unaccountable supranational governing body like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The American populace is being conditioned through economic fear to accept the institutionalization of global financial control and the loss of sovereignty. If you understand that the goal of the Fed and the globalists is to dismantle the dollar and the U.S. economic system to make way for something “new”, then certain recent events and policy initiatives do start to make sense. At the end of 2013 we saw at least three major events that could have sent America spiraling into total collapse. The first was the announcement of possible taper measures by the Fed, which have now begun. The second was the possible invasion of Syria which the Obama Administration is still desperate for despite successful efforts by the liberty movement to deny him public support for war. And, the third event was the last debt ceiling debate (or debt ceiling theater depending on how you look at it), which placed the U.S. squarely on the edge of fiscal default. As we begin 2014, these same threatening issues remain.

Illuminating Concepts: New street lights that include “Homeland Security” applications including speaker systems, motion sensors and video surveillance are now being rolled out with the aid of government funding. The Intellistreets system comprises of a wireless digital infrastructure that allows street lights to be controlled remotely by means of a ubiquitous wi-fi link and a miniature computer housed inside each street light, allowing for “security, energy management, data harvesting and digital media.” With the aid of grant money from the federal government, the company is about to launch the first concept installation of the system in the city of Farmington Hills, Michigan. Using street lights as surveillance tools has already been advanced by several European countries. In 2007, leaked documents out of the UK Home Office revealed that British authorities were working on proposals to fit lamp posts with CCTV cameras that would X-ray scan passers-by and “undress them” in order to “trap terror suspects”. So-called ‘talking surveillance cameras’ that use a speaker system similar to the Intellistreets model are already being used in UK cities like Middlesborough to bark orders and reprimand people for dropping litter and other minor offenses.

The Daily Sheeple: Former Federal Reserve economist Mike Dueker has made the fourth in a growing and bizarre list of dead international bankers. Dueker was just found dead at his home near Tacoma, Washington. Dueker, 50, was a chief economist at Russell Investments. He had been missing since January 29th was found dead by the side of the road in what police said appeared to be a suicide. Anonymous sources said that he had been having troubles at work, but no further details, nor sources were disclosed. A week ago, on Sunday, William Broeksmit, 58, a former senior manager for Deutsche Bank, was found dead in his home as well. He was hanging from a rope, in what was ruled a suicide as well. The very next day, on January 27th, Tata Motors managing director Karl Slym, 51, was also found dead on the fourth floor of the Shangri-La hotel in Bangkok, Thailand. Police there are ruling it a suicide, but have not explained why. Slym was staying on the 22nd floor with his wife, and had not shown any signs of being suicidal. On Tuesday, Gabriel Magee, 39, the vice president at JPMorgan Chase & Co’s (JPM) London headquarters, was said to have killed himself as well, in the Canary Wharf area. He apparently jumped off a building, in what was also ruled a suicide. Richard Talley, 57, founder and CEO of American Title Services in Centennial, Colorado, was found dead in his home on Tuesday with up to eight wounds to the torso and head from a nail gun. Jim Willie himself has stated that the suicided bankers had flipped during prosecution investigation, and were assassinated to prevent insider testimony of bank fraud from reaching the prosecution. Willie emphasizes that we are NOT seeing bad bankers removed, we are witnessing bankers taken out who are on the verge of revealing BIG DATA details.DS: In a possibly related note: The First Rule of the dead bankers club--stay gone. Some bankers are rumored to be operating from remote secondary locations. Lindsey Williams says many of the men he knew have fortresses in rural Alaska.

V-UPDATE 9:24 AM MOUNTAIN 5 FEB 2014: NEXT ON THE HIT LIST CITI EXECUTIVE TIED IN WITH FOREX FRAUD. THE HIT LIST HAS 3 DOZEN MORE NAMES-DESPERATE TIMES REQUIRE DESPERATE MEASURES IN THE WORLD OF MONETARY CONTROL! JPM can’t hold yellow metal shorts on notional gold. LIBOR and derivative hits continue as bankster suddenly commit “suicide”. 43 are on the knock off list and counting. The shock waves of this and many other scandals are creating turmoil everywhere. DS: US NGOs appear to be the major force behind stirring up the western Ukraine.

Chris Powell (GATA): The Bundesbank as saying that it is repatriating Germany's gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in small shipments because they are "preferred for security reasons". GATA's friend and consultant R.M. observes: "I was just thinking. ...There are 295 tonnes of German gold still to move from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to Frankfurt under the Bundesbank's plan to repatriate 300 of its 1,500 tonnes at the New York Fed by 2020. Five tonnes are reported to have been transferred already. There are 307 weeks from now until January 1, 2020. If the Bundesbank plans taking until 2020 to repatriate the German gold, that would mean flying an average of 1 tonne of gold per week from New York to Frankfurt every week between now and 2020, or 50 flights per year with two weeks of down time per year. That is crazy and a security nightmare in itself, since it would establish a routine pattern of gold flights between the same destinations. So the Bundesbank's explanation for the slow pace of its gold repatriation from the New York Fed looks even more bogus." Of course that Western central banks are generally so secretive about their gold reserves and particularly about their gold swaps and loans is confirmation in itself that central banks are doing things with gold for which they fear accounting to their publics and the market.

****************

Harvey's comments on Friday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed up $5.70 at $1263.30 (Comex closing time).

Silver was up 1 cent to $19.92.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM:

Gold: $1267.00

Silver: $20.00

Thursday, Feb 6th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/02/feb-7.html

Total, Feb(Gold), Mar (Silver), Apr (Gold) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI fell by 492 contracts as silver was up in price to the tune of 13 cents yesterday. The total OI now rests tonight at 146,327 contracts. The non active February silver contract month saw its OI remain constant at 11 contracts. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing in February.The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI fell by 3309 contracts to 83,368.First day notice for the silver March contract is Friday, Feb 28.2014

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest fell today by 1,680 contracts from 371,152 all the way down to 369,472 as gold was up $.30 yesterday. In the bigactive month of February the OI fell by 1053 contracts to 1,954.We had 1036 notices filed yesterday so we lost 17 contracts or 1,700 oz will not stand. The next non active gold contract month is March and here the OI rose by 43 contracts. The next big active contract month is April and here the OI fell by 930 contracts down to 228,386.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was good coming in at 46,755 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent at 51,452 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was fair at 133,565 contracts as many players have opted out of playing gold at the Comex. The confirmed volume yesterday was poor coming in at 91,010.

Inventory Numbers

In Silver Inventory:

Quote:

Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 1 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawal:

i) Out of Scotia: 489,842.29 oz.

and this lands into the dealer: JPMorgan: 489,842.29 oz.

Total dealer withdrawal: 489,842.29 oz

total dealer deposit: 489,842.29 oz.

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into CNT: 599.982.80 oz.

ii) Into HSBC: 1,923,740.419 oz.

Total customer deposit: 2,523,723.219 oz.

We had 1 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 3860.15 oz.

Total customer withdrawals: 3860.15 oz.

We had 0 adjustments today.

Registered (dealer) silver: 50.732 million oz.

Total of all silver: 181.755 million oz.

In Gold Inventory:

Quote:

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

i) Out of Scotia dealer account: 600.339 oz

Total dealer withdrawal; nil oz

We had 1 Customer deposit

i) Into HSBC: 39,794.710 oz (and this arrived from Scotia customer account)

ii) into Scotia: 32.15 oz

Total customer deposits: 39,826.86 oz

We had 1 major customer withdrawals:

i) Out of HSBC: 3118.550 oz

Total customer withdrawals: 3118.550 oz.

Today we had 1 major adjustments:

i) out of Scotia vaults: 20,371.416 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the JPMorgan dealer account.

In summary on the adjustments: 29,371.416 oz lands into the dealer account which will be used in the settlement process.

Thus we have the following with respect to JPMorgan's inventory.

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 214,097.318 oz or 6.659 tonnes.

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 3 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 177 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 8 notices stopped by JPMorgan customer account. Scotia today issued 162 of the 177 contracts.

The total dealer Comex gold remains tonight at 636,890.423 oz or only 19.809 tonnes of gold. However, this inventory will decline once settlement occurs. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,143,618.108 oz or 222.19 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks(Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) with its gold inventory resting tonight at only 16.930 tonnes.

i) Scotia: 155,507.872 oz or 4.836 tonnes

ii) HSBC: 174,742.211 oz or 5.435 tonnes

iii) JPMorgan: 2144,097.318 oz or 6.659 tonnes

total: 16.930 tonnes

Brinks dealer account which did have the lions share of the dealer gold saw its inventory level remains constant tonight at only 88,129.099 oz or 2.741 tonnes. A few months ago they had over 13 tonnes of gold at its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 177 notices served upon our longs for 17,700 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 462 x 5,000 oz per contract or 2,320,000 oz to which we add the difference between the OI standing for February (11) minus the number of contracts served today (0) x 5,000 oz.

Thus in summary:

462 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 2,320,000 oz + (11) OI standing for February - (0) number of notices filed today x 5000 oz = 2,375,000 oz, the same as yesterday.

This is a very good showing for silver in this generally weak delivery month of February.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in February, I take the number of contracts served so far this month at 2549 x 100 oz = 254,900 oz to which I add the difference between the open interest standing for February: (1954) x 100 oz minus the notices sent down for today (177) x 100 oz to give us what will stand for the month.

OI Summary:

2549 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this February month or 254,900 oz + (1954 notices) - (177) notices filed today x 100 oz = 432,600 oz or 13.450 tonnes of gold. We lost 1700 oz of gold standing in this February gold delivery month.

As you will see below we have only 16.930 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 19.671 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 19.809 tonnes). We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except from adjustments.

Dealer Inventory Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 19.809tonnes.ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 602,530.808 (18.741 tonnes).

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 214,097.318 oz (6.659 tonnes).

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 16.93 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December and February being the busiest months for the gold calender.

In going back over the data for the months of December and January and up to today, we have now had 7 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

We had 2,700.600 oz (jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes

plus (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia

plus 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

and 600.339 oz (.018 tonnes today, Feb 6.2014)

plus 3 adjustments from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes + 0.006 tonnes and 3 weeks ago 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments.

Total: 16.328 tonnes of gold Comex adjustments.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now 0.4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3534 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + 0.4914 - 16.328 tonnes= 4.3534 tonnes).

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 16.93 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3534 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 10.271 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3534 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,091.00, down 0.09%. WTI March crude was 99.88 up 1.98. Brent crude was 109.57 up 2.38. The spread between Brent and WTI was 9.69 up 0.40. The 30 year US Treasury bond was down 0.0100 at 3.6700. The 10 year T-Note was down 0.0200 at 2.6800. The dollar was down 0.22 at 80.67. The PPT/Dow was 15794.08 up 165.55. Silver closed at 20.00 up 0.05. The GSR was 63.3550 up 0.3074 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 64.32 up 2.16 (3.47%). March wheat was down 3.25 at 577.500. March corn was up 1.25 at 444.25. April lean hogs were up 0.525 at 94.725. March feeder cattle were up 0.800 at 167.800. March copper was up 0.007 at 3.236. March natural gas was down 0.156 at 4.775. April coal was up 0.28 at 57.70.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

**************

Mon, Feb 10, 2014 - 10:14pm
DayStar
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2586
14106

~~Harvey 10 Feb 2014

This is DayStar (DS) with the Monday Harvey Report.

News and Commentary

Mark O'Byrne: Gold advanced 3.2% in January, the first monthly gain since August, as the benchmark MSCI World Index of equities slumped 4.1%. Gold is now 5.7% higher so far in 2014 and it’s importance as a diversification is being seen again.Gold’s gains come before new Fed Chair Yellen's testimony tomorrow. Market participants await her assessment of the poor payrolls data and for guidance regarding whether uber dovish monetary policy will continue. Spot gold in Shanghai climbed to its highest level since December 26 as China returned from the Lunar New Year holidays. Gold of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange gained 0.8% to 250.25 yuan/gram. China’s gold buying lept 41% to 1,176.4 tonnes in 2013. Gold bullion demand surged 57% and gold jewellery demand surged 43% according to the China Gold Association.

Harvey: Today we witnessed the breakout of gold beyond the huge resistance level of $1270.00. We will have to see if this level holds up. The price of silver was quite subdued which may be a signal for our bankers to attack tomorrow. GOFO is in backwardation for the one month and the two month. GLD: Gold was unchanged at 797.05 tonnes. SLV: Silver was unchanged at 10,045.79 tonnes.

GoldCore: The gold demand surge has helped China become the world’s largest gold buyer. Falling gold prices attracted store of wealth buyers for jewellery and bullion in China. This did not support prices in 2013, but could be the catalyst for higher prices in 2014. While gold ownership has surged in China in recent years, per capita ownership of gold in China remains well below levels in India. Therefore, many analysts believe that the surge in demand is sustainable and will likely continue, underlining the shift in global demand from west to east.

Bill Holter on Jim Sinclair (Miles Franklin): "Honor" in the financial world is completely gone and that fraud is everywhere. He did do a recap of derivatives and said that any and all "pre Lehman" derivatives are worthless and that "bail ins" are scary as hell and probably inevitable. Because "honor and integrity" are long gone, no one really knows what they have in their bank accounts. Your bank statements can say whatever they say but you won't know really know what you have until after the dust of bankruptcies and bail ins has settled. He spoke of gold's "triple bottom" and believes it highly unlikely that the $1,180-$1,200 level will be broken or even tested again. He rightly pointed out that gold has been acting very differently recently and the "feel" has changed 180 degrees. Even if another retest of support or even a break were to happen it will be meaningless in the big picture. Gold and silver have been manipulated "too low" in price (under the cost of production) and that the unintended consequence of creating excess demand (especially from Asia) has put them on very solid ground and in very strong hands. The "pricing" mechanism of gold and silver will change, Comex will become a "cash settled" market and become irrelevant while the "physical settled" markets (like the one he is chairing in Singapore) that are popping up in Asia will come forward and become the pricing mechanism. Bill Murphy asked Jim that if the bullion banks were now long, who would take the short side? The answer to this was "no one"...which would cause air pockets to the upside. Air pockets as in no offers and flash crashes upwards faster, greater in size and more violent than we have experienced to the downside. Surprisingly, Sinclair is wildly bullish about silver. Sinclair: "silver will lead and it will be gold on steroids". He followed up by mentioning that you will need to make a decision in the future about silver, while it will outperform gold by a huge margin there is a "monetary event" out there somewhere and that a decision will need to be made as to whether to hang on to your silver or to swap into gold. Don't worry, he was not talking "now", now he believes that silver will trade to $50 and possibly even $100 this year. DS: The monetary event will be the collapse of the global economy, but silver will not take a hit. It will continue to outperform gold even during the reign of the NWO.

Chris Powell on Eric Sprott (GATA): Buying of shares of the gold exchange-traded fund GLD likely will increase this year as a contrarian play and put serious strain on the world gold supply, adding that the U.S. gold reserve is likely depleted.

Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler: On several recent occasions gold has attempted to push through the $1,270 per ounce price. If the gold price rises beyond this level, it would trigger a flood of short-covering by the hedge funds who are “piggy-backing” on the bullion banks’ manipulation of gold. The purchases by the hedge funds in order to cover their short positions would drive the gold price higher. Readers have asked if gold can continue to be shorted on the Comex once no gold is left for delivery. From what we have seen–the fixing of the LIBOR rate, the London gold price, foreign exchange rates, the price of bonds and the manipulation of gold and stock market futures prices–we don’t know what the limit is to the ability of the Fed, the Treasury, the Plunge Protection Team, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and the banks to manipulate the markets.

Goldsilverworlds.com: Ted Butler, precious metals analyst specialized in COT analysis, reveals a remarkable insight in the physical silver market. Butler's calculations show that JPMorgan (JPM) has piled up the largest holding of physical silver in modern world. Since the silver price peak in May 2011, the bank has accumulated between 100 and 200 million ounces of physical silver (if not more). The equivalent in metric tonnes is between 3,110 and 6,220 tonnes. To put that number in perspective, it surpasses the amounts held by the Hunt Brothers or Warren Buffett (in his investment company Berkshire Hathaway). Butler: “Causing the price of silver to be depressed via a concentrated short position on the Comex along with the ability to crush prices in an HFT second, to then scooping up physical metal (and covering paper shorts) at the self-created depressed prices. What this also highlights is the madness and illegality of having the paper price on the Comex setting the price in the physical market. If JPM hadn't been capable of rigging silver prices lower in 2013, it would never have been able to buy back 100 million ounces of short paper contracts and buy many tens of millions of physical silver as well.” Butler: The extent to which JPM adds new short contracts on the next silver rally will determine the strength of the rally. Simply put – if JPM doesn't add new short positions, the manipulation is over. Someday, JPM won't add to silver short positions and they, more than anyone else, will be best positioned to realize massive gains.

John Embry (via King World News): “One of the most important tenets of Austrian economics, of which I am a true believer, is that it takes more and more credit creation to generate a real increase in GDP as you get deeper into an economic cycle, and we are extremely deep into this cycle. The amount of credit creation that is required to get growth at this point, it can’t even be supported. We can’t even support the debt load that we have now, let alone massive new quantities of debt. So the idea that we are going to have a self-sustaining recovery is just fantasy. I think the Western world, particularly in Japan, is long since past the point of no return. And China, from all of the financial numbers I look at, may be approaching the point of no return as well. It is taking more and more credit creation to grow their economy, and clearly they are starting to have major credit problems. So I’m very comfortable with the idea that there are only two possible outcomes: A 1930s-style Great Depression, or the path of least resistance, which is where you just keep printing money so that nothing caves in, and that most assuredly will lead to hyperinflation.

John Embry on Gold: it looks like the bottom is solidly in and these attacks by the paper players are starting to be repelled. We still see the flash crashes, where these guys dump an enormous amount of contracts in a minute or two, but they are no longer having any lasting impact. The price just comes back and establishes a new short-term high. This is very positive action. I am also encouraged by the strength that has appeared in the gold and silver space. I am invested extremely heavily in this space and a number of my holdings have experienced high double-digit gains so far this year. I am not excited yet because I think many of these are going to go up 5 to 10 times in price, and that’s going to happen in the wake of much higher gold and silver prices. There are so many paper claims on gold and silver that when this Ponzi scheme is finally revealed for what it is, I think the move is going to be historic. When people finally realize they have been conned with all these paper products, it will be the very time they need their physical gold and silver. So this is building into a crescendo and I would expect this to be an interesting year for those who have suffered in the gold and silver space for the past 2 1/2 years. I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet in terms of the what the ultimate chaos will be. People were frightened in 2008, but they will be even more terrified when the [fit hits the Shan] this time.

Robert Fitzwilson (via King World News): It is very obvious that the manipulation is alive and well. What has been different, though, is there definitely seems to be a significant base that has been building for both metals. Silver has been trapped in a very tight trading range between $19 and $20, but the trading range for gold has been migrating higher. Not too long ago, the top looked to be $1,200. The next top was $1,250. The most recent top has been $1,270, but it feels as if we are close to breaking through it. Perhaps this is the “managed retreat” that has been mentioned before on KWN. There is no question that the setup for the central bank proxies would generate huge profits if the prices of gold and silver were allowed to suddenly jump to a higher trading range. However, the primary goal of the manipulation is to protect the dollar and the ability to create money out of thin air. The value of that capability is immensely greater than the trading profits from allowing some semblance of market prices. Therefore, it is unlikely that we are rapidly approaching the tectonic spike to the upside that would be justified in free market conditions. It will happen when the central planners either lose control or it becomes in their best interest.

Chris Powell (GATA): One must suspect that security really isn't the reason for the slow pace of the Bundesbank's gold repatriation from the New York Fed -- that the reason is that, as fund manager, geopolitical strategist, and author James G. Rickards has speculated, the Bundesbank really doesn't want its gold back from the New York Fed and that the nominal repatriation is meant only to ease political clamor in Germany. Or one must suspect that, as many supposedly paranoid gold bugs believe, the German gold is no longer available, having been overcommitted in the fractional-reserve gold banking system of the Western central bank gold price suppression scheme. Of course the latter explanation also could be why the Bundesbank might not really want its gold back any time soon. What an embarrassment, scandal, and financial loss the truth might be. In any case, when it comes to gold repatriation, Venezuela, whose collapsing command economy lately has forced people to rush over to Colombia in search of basic foodstuffs and consumer items, mocks the famous German efficiency.

Camila Russo and Charlie Devereux (Bloomberg): “In a context of uncertainty such as this one, Argentines who have lived through hyperinflation and numerous mega-devaluations, they want to keep their dollars,” said Belen Olaiz, an analyst at Buenos Aires research company abeceb.com. In the 2001 financial crisis, Argentina froze savings accounts to stop a run on bank deposits, a measure dubbed the “corralito.” Early the next year, the government forced banks to convert dollar-denominated deposits into pesos, which slashed savings to a fourth of their value. Argentines have an estimated $160 billion of undeclared funds held abroad or stashed at home, according to the government. The Federal Reserve estimated in a 2006 report that Argentina, which the CIA says is the world’s 33rd-most populous nation, had at least $50 billion in U.S. cash -- about one of every nine dollars then circulating abroad. n the latest effort to prop up reserves and attract investors to peso assets, policy makers raised interest rates and pledged the peso will stabilize at around 8 per dollar. Still, the interest rates don’t compensate for estimated 28 percent inflation and non-deliverable forwards show traders betting the peso will weaken to 11.7 per dollar over the next year.

Jim Rickards (via King World News): "outright manipulation" is "very visible" in Comex gold futures prices. "Between central bank manipulation through Comex futures and bullion banks dumping the physical and by cleaning out the GLD warehouse and the Comex warehouse for that matter," Rickards says, "there is a massive amount of gold that came on the market over and above normal supply trends, putting massive selling pressure on the Comex." But the trend of investors to move gold from investment banks, where it can be "rehypothecated" to oblivion, to ordinary vaults outside the banking system is tightening the gold supply, Rickards adds. DS: The dishording of GLD's gold, the sale of Comex's gold, and short covering by hedge funds has put massive selling pressure on Comex, but the basic underlying pressure is a ground swell of bullion buying by the East and investors in general.

The Prudent Investor: The looming bankruptcy of a mid-sized regional bank, Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA), may propel the country to the disdained position of being the catalyst for a new round of bank failures due to interwoven banks risks on both the domestic and the international level. Austrian politicians are up in arms since a third-party expert opinion that recommends to wind down the bank at a cost of €18 billion has been leaked to the media. On Monday Austrian financial market authority FMA publicly said what the official Austria never wanted to hear: any further delay would make the doomed HGAA an incalculable risk and that Austria should consider no option as a taboo anymore. Nothing could be more true. An unorderly liquidation of HGAA will not only push Austria from the throne of the best economy in the Eurozone, pushing its public debt to GDP ratio well over 100%, but will also have continent wide reverberations. Austria's banking woes look eerily similar to the failure of Creditanstalt in 1931 that was the fuse for the last European Kondratieff winter. For those sticking with K-cycles this may not be a good outlook. 83 years later such an event is more than overdue in Europe and given Europe's overall outlook it does not take much anymore to set the Great EU Chaos into full fledged motion.

Micahel Pento (via King World News): The mainstream media will never report this, but the American consumer is about to be brought to their knees. In fact, I am extremely worried about the global economy and consumers in all nations around the world. We have Chinese growth slowing dramatically. China used to have a double-digit growth economy, but I am only looking for 5 to 6 percent growth in 2014. So we now have a problem with slowing growth in China. Second, we have emerging-market chaos. This has caused tremendous turmoil in their currency, interest rate, and equity markets. We also have flat incomes here in the United States, after taxes and inflation. Real disposable income was only up 0.7% for the entire year of 2013. We also have an overvalued stock market in the United States. Even Warren Buffett is worried about this situation. The total capitalization of the stock market is now at 112% of GDP. That is actually higher than it was at the start of the Great Recession. The historical average of the total market cap of the stock market as a percentage of GDP is only 50%! This relationship goes back for many, many decades. So the US stock market has been priced in the stratosphere. The US stock market is now more than twice the historical valuation as a percentage of GDP. I promise you that is unsustainable. We have a bubble in bonds, a bubble in stocks, and what is the US doing about it? Unbelievably, politicians are now debating about raising the debt ceiling even higher. The deficit for this year is going to be over half a trillion dollars. I will tell you, that’s a rosy estimate for the deficit because that’s assuming 3% GDP growth which we will never see.

Zero Hedge: Just like Greece has become a money "tolling" intermediary for the ECB and German banks, in which Europe pretends to bail out the crushed country when in reality it is just funding debt payments to its own banks, so the Ukraine has now become an intermediary, in which loan payments from Russia go to pay... Russia's Gazprom. And in the process Russia pulls the Ukraine from the European sphere of influence and back into that of the New Normal USSR. Rising animosity between the former Cold War powers was on full display Friday when Russia chose a former figure skater who tweeted out a racially charged picture of President Obama for the symbolic lighting of the Olympic cauldron. Russian President Vladimir Putin hoped hosting the first Games since the 1980 Moscow Olympics, which the U.S. boycotted, would showcase a “new Russia” emerging from the ashes of the Soviet Union as he enters his 15th year in power. Instead the U.S. and its western allies have consistently painted the picture of a corrupt autocracy. “I understand how the press here works. They need hot issues in order to be read, to have high circulation,” Sergey Kislyak, Putin's envoy to Washington, told The Washington Diplomat last month. That's ok - as long as the US population can keep itself distracted from the sheer implosion of US standing internationally by looking at tweeted images of decrepit toilets and busted Sochi plumbing, and continue feeling good about itself, then all is well. After all, that's just what Putin wants.

Pam Martens: The suspicious death of JPMorgan vice president, Gabriel Magee, is under investigation in London. No solid evidence exists currently to suggest that the death was a suicide. In fact, there is a strong piece of evidence pointing in the opposite direction. Magee had emailed his girlfriend, Veronica, on the evening of January 27 to say that he was about to leave the office and would see her shortly. She received no further emails from him, suggesting that whatever happened to Magee happened shortly thereafter, not the next morning. According to multiple sources, Magee’s girlfriend reported his disappearance on the evening of January 27. The Metropolitan Police would provide me with no details on that investigation. If Magee became aware that incriminating emails, instant messages, or video teleconferences were not turned over in their entirety to Senate investigators or Justice Department prosecutors, that might be reason enough for his untimely death.

Ambrose Evans-Pitchard (Financial Times): Germany’s top court has issued a blistering attack on the European Central Bank, arguing that its rescue plan for the euro violates EU treaty law and exceeds the bank’s policy mandate, but it referred the case to the European Court. This is the first time that the Verfasungsgericht has referred a case to the European Court. Contrary to general belief, however, the ECJ is not the higher judicial body. The referral is a courtesy, and in this case a clever political ploy. The Verfassungsgericht ruled in its famous judgment on the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 that it reserves the right to strike down any EU law that breaches the German Grundgesetz or Basic Law. It went even further in its ruling on the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, reminding the EU authorities in acid terms that the sovereign states are the “masters of the EU Treaties” and not the other way around. It set out limits to EU integration and warned that whole areas of policy “must forever remain German”, adding that Germany must be prepared to “refuse further participation in the European Union” if EU aggrandizement threatens its democracy in any way. Today Europe's most powerful court dropped another bombshell. Investors reacted calmly to the news, with bond yields falling slightly in southern Europe.

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Harvey's comments on Monday price action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

Quote:

Gold closed up $11.50 at $1274.80 (Comex closing time).

Silver was up 15 cents to $20.10.

In the access market tonight at 5:15 PM:

Gold: $1275.00

Silver: $20.10

Friday, Feb 7th Gold and Silver Action (basis 1:30 PM EST)

https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2014/02/feb-10hypo-bank-in-austria-needs-to-be.html

Total, Feb (Gold), Mar (Silver), Apr (Gold) Open Interest

In silver:

Quote:

The total silver Comex OI fell by 172 contracts as silver was up in price to the tune of 1 cent on Friday. The total OI now rests tonight at 146,155 contracts. The non active February silver contract month saw its OI remain constant at 11 contracts. We had 0 notices filed on Friday so we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing in February.The next big active delivery month for silver is March and here the OI fell by 5193 contracts to 78,175. First day notice for the silver March contract is Friday, Feb 28.2014

In Gold:

Quote:

The total gold Comex open interest rose today by only 1,565 contracts from 369,472 all the way up to 371,037 as gold was up $5.70 on Friday. In the bigactive month of February the OI fell by 224 contracts to 1,730.We had 177 notices filed on Friday so we lost 43 contracts or 4300 oz will not stand. (no doubt that they were cash settled)The next non active gold contract month is March and here the OI rose by 93 contracts. The next big active contract month is April and here the OI rose by 3322 contracts up to 231,708.

Volume

In Silver:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was excellent coming in at 58,233 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was also excellent at 58,258 contracts.

In gold:

Quote:

The estimated volume today was poor at 93,204 contracts as many players have opted out of playing gold at the Comex. The confirmed volume on Friday was fair coming in at 146,878.

Inventory Numbers

In Silver Inventory:

Quote:

Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.

We had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.

Total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

total dealer deposit: nil oz.

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into Delaware: 3,860.15 oz.

ii) Into Scotia: 630,222.80 oz.

Total customer deposit: 634,082.95 oz.

We had 3 customer (eligible) withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks: 2,981.46 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 95,669.70 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 2065.988 oz.

Total customer withdrawals: 100,717.148 oz.

We had 0 adjustments today.

Registered (dealer) silver: 50.732 million oz.

Total of all silver: 182.288 million oz.

In Gold Inventory:

Quote:

We had 1 dealer deposit and 0 dealer withdrawals.

i) Into the dealer Brinks account: 200.10 oz

Total dealer withdrawal; nil oz

We had 2 Customer deposit

i) Into HSBC: 19,267.764 oz (and this arrived from Scotia customer account)

ii) into Scotia: 2,572.000 oz (a perfectly round deposit/or 80 kilobars)

Total customer deposits: 21,839.764 oz

We had 2 major customer withdrawals:

i) Out of HSBC: 1,086.84 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 19,267.764 oz (and this lands into HSBC today)

Total customer withdrawals: 20,364.604 oz.

Today we had 1 major adjustment:

i) out of Scotia vaults: 20,304.003 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the JPMorgan dealer account.

In summary on the adjustments: 20,304.003 oz lands into the dealer account

which will be used in the settlement process.

Thus we have the following with respect to JPMorgan's inventory.

JPM dealer inventory remains tonight at 214,097.318 oz or 6.659 tonnes

Today, 30 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 118 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 5 notices stopped by JPMorgan customer account. Scotia today issued 82 of the 118 contracts and HSBC stopped 77.

The total dealer Comex gold remains tonight at 657,394.526 oz or 20.4477 tonnes of gold. However, this inventory will decline once settlement occurs. The total of all Comex gold (dealer and customer) rests at 7,145,303.368 oz or 222.24 tonnes.

Tonight, we have dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks(Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan) with its gold inventory resting tonight at only 17.562 tonnes.

i) Scotia: 175,811.875 oz or 5.468 tonnes

ii) HSBC: 174,742.211 oz or 5.435 tonnes

iii) JPMorgan: 2144,097.318 oz or 6.659 tonnes

total: 17.562 tonnes

Brinks dealer account which did have the lions share of the dealer gold saw its inventory level remains constant tonight at only 88,329.199 oz or 2.747 tonnes. A few months ago they had over 13 tonnes of gold at its registered or dealer account.

Delivery Notices

In silver:

Quote:

The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.

In gold:

Quote:

Today we had 118 notices served upon our longs for 11,800 oz of gold.

Contracts Left To Be Delivered + Month-To-Date Summary

In silver:

For those that are interested in the alleged bullion in the vaults of Comex by date, you can see it here:

https://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/Base_Metals_Inventory_London_and_Shanghai.htm#Comex_silver

In silver:

Quote:

To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of December, I take the number of contracts served for the entire month at 462 x 5,000 oz per contract or 2,320,000 oz to which we add the difference between the OI standing for February (11) minus the number of contracts served today (0) x 5,000 oz.

Thus in summary:

462 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 2,320,000 oz + (11) OI standing for February - (0) number of notices filed today x 5000 oz = 2,375,000 oz, the same as yesterday.

This is a very good showing for silver in this generally weak delivery month of February.

In gold:

Quote:

In order to calculate what will be standing for delivery in February, I take the number of contracts served so far this month at 2667 x 100 oz = 266,700 oz to which I add the difference between the open interest standing for February: (1730) x 100 oz minus the notices sent down for today (118) x 100 oz to give us what will stand for the month.

OI Summary:

2667 notices x 100 oz per contracts already served this February month or 266,700 oz + (1730 notices) - (118) notices filed today x 100 oz = 427,800 oz or 13.309 tonnes of gold. We lost 4300 oz of gold standing in this February gold delivery month.

As you will see below we have only 17.562 tonnes in the registered or for sale category for the big 3 (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) and 20.309 tonnes if you include Brinks. If you include the tiny Manfra, we end up with a total dealer gold of only 20.4477 tonnes). We have witnessed little gold enter the dealer except from Brinks and adjustments

Dealer Inventory Summary:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold settles tonight at a very dangerously low level of only 20.4477tonnes.ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory rests tonight at 602,530.808 (18.741 tonnes).

ii) b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 214,097.318 oz (6.659 tonnes).

iii) the 3 major bullion banks (JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotia) have collectively only 17.562 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account, and what is totally remarkable is the fact that little gold entered the dealer Comex vaults despite December and February being the busiest months for the gold calender.

In going back over the data for the months of December and January and up to today, we have now had 7 withdrawals from the dealer:

3.7 tonnes

1.92 tonnes

1.669 tonnes (from Brinks on last Thursday in December)

We had 2,700.600 oz (jan 3/2014 from Manfra) or 0.084 tonnes

plus (Jan 9) 1.987 tonnes from Scotia

plus 2.79 tonnes (from Brinks Jan 15.2014)

and 600.339 oz (.018 tonnes today, Feb 6.2014)

plus 3 adjustments from the dealer to the customer account of 3.806 tonnes + 0.006 tonnes and 3 weeks ago 0.3547 tonnes of HSBC adjustments.

Total: 16.328 tonnes of gold Comex adjustments.

We had 20.19 tonnes of gold standing for the December contract month and now 0.4914 tonnes for January 2014. Therefore 4.3534 tonnes is left to be settled upon (20.19 tonnes + 0.4914 - 16.328 tonnes= 4.3534 tonnes).

Thus from the big 3 of JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia we have a dealer inventory of only 17.562 tonnes which must settle upon the 4.3534 tonnes still outstanding.

Since JPMorgan has stopped 97% of all issuance, if you remove them from the big three, then we have HSBC and Scotia having an inventory of only 10.903 tonnes of gold which must settle upon 4.3534 tonnes of gold still outstanding.

Select Commodity Prices

The Bloomberg Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,096.00, up 0.46%. WTI March crude was 100.04 up 0.16. Brent crude was 108.63 down 0.94. The spread between Brent and WTI was 8.59 down 1.10. The 30 year US Treasury bond was down 0.0100 at 3.6600. The 10 year T-Note was up 0.0000 at 2.6800. The dollar was down 0.05 at 80.62. The PPT/Dow was 15801.79 up 7.71. Silver closed at 20.08 up 0.08. The GSR was 63.4960 up 0.1410 oz of silver per oz of gold. CIA's Facebook was 63.55 down 0.77 (1.20%). March wheat was up 7.25 at 584.750. March corn was down 1.25 at 443.00. April lean hogs were up 0.025 at 94.750. March feeder cattle were up 0.100 at 167.900. March copper was down 0.012 at 3.225. March natural gas was down 0.196 at 4.579. April coal was up 0.18 at 57.88.

Thank you for reading the Harvey Report!

There is much more on Harvey's blog https://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.

Goooood day!

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