Silver vs. Gold: Let's Settle This

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BullsandBears's picture
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Silver vs. Gold: Let's Settle This

I posted an interesting article with my take on the gold vs. silver debate, and how it I see it playing out. The link is available below for anyone interested.


Bulls and Bears

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:30
ratioarbitrage's picture
Joined: 06/04/2012
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GSR of 1 or 100?

Many thanks for an interesting article. The comments below it on your website were also very interesting, coming from a wide range of viewpoints.

I do not feel that the article settles the debate on the longer-term relative values of silver and gold; it simply expresses one well-argued viewpoint, namely that the ratio will fall for a time under easily imaginable circumstances *and then rise under different circumstances*.

The big question is therefore: will those different circumstances obtain? What we are looking at is a collapse of USD hegemony, which will probably be followed by a confused period with different, competing claims of moneyness. There will no doubt be a vociferous silver camp (as under the Gold Standard) and a quieter but more powerful gold camp. Under the classical gold standard as Turd's recent posts and related links have demonstrated, the situation was not essentially of universal officially distorted prices but for the most part of free floating prices corrected by metal flows *due to international discord*.

Since I expect continuing international discord during the coming period of transition, I would argue that it is not currently possible to settle the argument on the GSR under a putative "settled" future situation. Since if USD monetary hegemony is gone, who is to say that the monetary hegemony of central banks will remain? Furthermore, some of the claims to "moneyness" may be regional (as you mentioned re: Mexico), or may be coercive, either through capital controls or more invasive police states enforcing distorted ideas of patriotism.

I would agree with your conclusions: hold both metals. I would further suggest that for large amounts gold is better for reasons of portability (in view of the various forms of instability and coercion that can be reasonably expected). Clearly in absolute value terms silver has a chance at outperforming in the short term as the manipulations are unwound. But for the rest I think we need to watch events.

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