Selecting explorers and junior miners

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Sat, Oct 25, 2014 - 7:51pm Gwyde
Gwyde
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Miner bear market unabated

Broad markets have recovered from their correction, yet for precious metals the slump continues. Gold weakens 0.6% since the previous Friday but silver is steady (+0.12%). After Monday's bounce, miners have been heading south once again. The HUI is closing at 184.4, down 1.4% over the week and making HUI/Gold weaken to 0.1497, considerably beneath the December 2013 bottom and setting a fresh 14-year low. Miners never have been as dirt cheap since before the onset of the secular gold bull market by the end of 2000.

You find fresh graphs on the GoldMinerPulse page.

This can only mean more harm for our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet. We can't repeat last week's counter-trend gain. We are down 4.8% over the week and the aggregated loss deepens to 43.68%. Only Platinum Group Metals and Wellgreen Platinum escape from the down draft. Last week's out-performers: Continental gold, Excellon Res. and Ivanhoe Mining (Ivanplats) suffer double digit losses.

As announced last week, I've included junior miner Allied Nevada in the list as of last Friday at its $2.30 close.

Gwyde
Sun, Nov 2, 2014 - 11:28am Gwyde
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Capitulation

American markets are steaming up to new highs. The contrast with the precious metals slide cannot be higher. Gold slid 4.7% last week, closing below $1200 on Thursday and making fresh intra-day low (since 2010) on Friday to close at $1173. Silver once more is off worse, down 6% over the week and sliding below $16 intra-day on Friday to close at $16.18. The gold to silver ratio reaches a five year high at 72.5.

After modest gains on Tuesday, the miner slide has turned to a free-fall, culminating in the Halloween capitulation. The HUI is closing at 156.2, plunging 15.3% over the week and making HUI/Gold slide to 0.133, setting a fresh 14-year low. Miners never have been as dirt cheap since before the onset of the secular gold bull market by the end of 2000. The HUI level now equals its 2008 bottom level, only: back then gold was quoting barely above at $700. Despite the slide, it still stands over 60% higher now. You find fresh graphs on the GoldMinerPulse page.

This can only end in tears for our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet. We are down 15.9%, in line with the HUI index (-15.3%) and with GDX (-15.9%) but less bad than the over 20% slide of GDXJ. The aggregated loss has risen to 52.63%. (The first time ever the list is down more than half.) Last week's inclusion of ANV is a textbook example of bad timing. Allied Nevada had its worst week ever, sliding nearly 40%. It's the major drag on our list. No miners are up, but two explorers were holding ground, miraculously sheltered from the torment. Six more list components limit their loss to the single digits, an accomplishment ...

Gwyde
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