Selecting explorers and junior miners

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Wed, Feb 12, 2014 - 11:02am Gwyde
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Miners rally into second gear

The worst asset class of 2013 has metamorphosed into the high flyer of the first months of 2014. After a few weeks of hesitation, the gold miners rally gets into second gear. When evaluating miners relative to precious metals, the paradigm change is revealing itself. Throughout nearly the complete gold miner bear market, the main index for unhedged miners quoting on American exchanges (HUI) was losing ground relative to gold. Moreover it rarely even regained its declining 200 days moving average. The trend reversed and HUI/Gold now breaks above its 200 dma.

Continue reading at: https://gwyde.blogspot.be/2014/02/miners-rally-into-second-gear.html

Miners may take a breather today. This frequently happens after a run-up is getting traction. Short term traders need momentum to get out. Meanwhile, it 's a buying opportunity for adopters of the 'gold trend reversal' hypothesis who were waiting for confirmation to accumulate.

Gwyde
Sat, Feb 15, 2014 - 4:48pm Gwyde
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Miners outperform bullion

End December, as miners were hovering above their lows relative to precious metals, I mentioned that we would need to see $1300 gold before any recovery could get traction. There we are, now did we steam up higher? Miners just ended the best week since the bear market ended. The HUI index is up over 11% since Friday Feb 7. Meanwhile gold strengthened 4.1% to $1319.1 by the close on Friday 14, making HUI/Gold strengthen to 0.184. The dynamics definitely has altered.

How about our "Contributor driven explorer and Junior spreadsheet"? We are up 12.3% over the week, outperforming both the HUI index and the GDX, but just falling short of GDXJ and GLDX which recovered some more of their (still much higher) losses. Our average loss is cut to 25.1%, cap weighed that translates to a 21.92% loss. We have 21 picks up over the week, with only Miranda Gold down and Moneta Porcupine flat over the week. Double digit weekly gains are the rule more than the exception. Aurcana leads with a 47% weekly gain. The silver miner left the penny stock realm behind to close the week at C$1.33. Over the long haul we are back up to three winners: Ivanhoe Mines strengthened and is once more joining PLG at the winning side. Sandstorm Gold is up 12.65% over the week, making it above break-even after diving into the red for several months. Pretium and Sabina Gold&Silver saw their long term loss reduced to single digits.

Gwyde
Sat, Feb 22, 2014 - 11:34am Gwyde
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Rocky week

We only had four trading days on American exchanges last week, yet the miner price swings more than compensated for this. On balance we don't end up very far from where we left off last Friday. Gold is barely up(+0.53%) since Friday last week while silver continues its recovery (+1.58%). The HUI ends this rocky week up 1.17%, making HUI/Gold firm marginally to 0.185. You find the usual updated graphs on HUI/Gold and SIL/Silver along with miners indices and performance disparity on the GoldMinerPulse page.

Where does all of this lead our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet”? Our list is up 1.67%barely outperforming the HUI. We have 12 miners up on our list, against 8 down and 3 flat over the week. Over the long haul, PLG, Ivanhoe Mines (Ivanplats) and Miranda are the only long-term gains. Sandstorm is down only little, but enough to turn gain to loss once again. Pretium and Sabina Gold&Silver are near the break-even, having reduced their long term loss to the single digit range.

Project generator Miranda Gold, Excelsior Gold (our Aussi mine developer) and Excellon Resources are the best picks of last week, up double digits. Miranda turns loss into gain while the last two are cutting their previous long term loss.

Gwyde
Sat, Mar 1, 2014 - 6:36pm Gwyde
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Moneta Porcupine saves our week

Precious metals have been rising ever since 'tapering' became a fact rather than a whisper. Last week however we've seen pull backs and restarts. On balance gold is almost flat, adding a timid 0.19% since Friday Feb 21, silver slid back and gave up much of its extended gains of the previous week. The white metal is down 2.84%. Though American stock markets held on to modest gains over the week, the HUI miners index eased 3.19%, making the HUI/Gold ratio slide to 0.179. A lousy week for gold miners. Some mining CEO dropped the word at the BMO investor conference that such events most often cause adverse reactions for the mining stocks involved and "it should rather be organized by the end of the 2nd quarter, when a correction is seasonally expected anyhow". You find the usual updated graphs on HUI/Gold at the GMP page: https://gwyde.blogspot.be/p/gold-miner-pulse.html

So how about our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet"? We have weekly losses outnumbering gains about 3:1, but Moneta Porcupine saves our week. The stock doubled after excellent drilling results: read at https://www.monetaporcupine.com/i/pdf/2014-02-28_NRa.pdf

The aggregate performance therefore is up 1.88% (though cap weighed we lose over 2%). Our aggregate loss is trimmed to 22.4%. Moneta Porcupine joins the select group of long-term winners, but Miranda Gold slid into the red once again. The total therefore stays at three long term gains against 20 losses.

Gwyde
Sat, Mar 8, 2014 - 6:51pm Gwyde
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Decent week ending with a slide

The ebb and flow of the news coming from Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula stays at the back of investor's minds. Commodities and oil are on the rise (for corn recovering from last year's low). Gold and Platinum have seen a net advance (Gold +1.4%), yet ending the week with a slide on Friday. Silver nosedives on Friday, holding on to a tiny weekly gain. Despite a predictable slide on Friday, miners were in favor last week. The HUI holds on to a 3% gain, making HUI/Gold appreciate to 0.181, well off the week's high though. You find the usual updated graphs on HUI/Gold, Sil/Silver and the performance disparity graph at the GMP page: https://gwyde.blogspot.be/p/gold-miner-pulse.html

Our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet" cannot confirm. We break even (+0.01%) over the week and the accumulated loss stays put at 22.4%, but the cap weighed return advances 1.55%. Nevertheless we have twelve picks up against ten down with Sandstorm breaking even. But last week's winner 'Moneta Porcupine' slid back 15% and Aurcana also lost 10%. This was compensated by Romarco adding over 20% and greatly cutting its loss. Oceana Gold made it above break-even, which brings us to 4 long term winners. Pretium and Sabina Gold&Silver added a few percent and cut their loss to single digits again.

Gwyde
Sun, Mar 16, 2014 - 9:08am Gwyde
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Uptrend resuming

The Crimean referendum for attaching the peninsula to Russia, is haunting the markets. Precious metals and above all gold are on the rise. The yellow metal is at a six month high. You find the usual updated graphs on HUI/Gold and SIL/Silver along with miners indices and performance disparity on the GoldMinerPulse page.

Our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet" confirms, with a 4.1% gain over the week. The accumulated loss is reduced to 19.24%. The cap weighed return advances 4.7%, trimming the accumulated loss to 18.5%. Despite a poor performance on Friday, we have 15 stocks up over the week against 7 down, with Eurasian minerals flat. Sandstorm rallied to a 27% weekly gain, making it above break even. Pretium also rallied to join the long term winners. We now have six picks up since inclusion against seventeen down: a remarkable improvement.

Gwyde
Sun, Mar 23, 2014 - 3:21pm Gwyde
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Major pull-back

Any major trend reversal never comes without any hick-up, questioning the trend. Throughout the gold-miner bear market we have seen quite a few false recoveries, which were merely decent exit points allowing investors to mitigate their loss. In every occasion worse was to come. The major pull-back we faced last week is one of those key-events questioning the trend. Those doubting the reversal should have sold last week, the believers are now offered an opportunity to add to their positions.

After the clear result of the Crimean referendum for attaching the peninsula to Russia, there was much flexing the muscles, but very little violence. Markets resumed their uptrend, but precious metals have been sliding.

As usual, miners exacerbate the correction incurred by gold and silver. The HUI/Gold ratiio slid back to 0.1769. You find the usual updated graphs on HUI/Gold and SIL/Silver along with miners indices and performance disparity on the GoldMinerPulse page.

Our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet" evolves in line, with a near 6% slide over the week (against an 8.6% loss for the HUI). The accumulated loss rises again to 24.05%. The cap weighed return deteriorates 7%, bringing the accumulated loss to 24.7%. On our list, there are only 4 gains against 19 losses over the week. None of the gains is in the double digits, but several of the losses are. TRX (Tanzanian Royalty Exploration) , shed 23% last week. Pretium slid back into the red, which brings us back to five picks up since inclusion against eighteen down.

Gwyde
Sat, Mar 29, 2014 - 4:15pm Gwyde
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Awful week ending on an up-beat note

The major pull-back started with a continuous slide last week, extending awfully during the past week. We however end on an up-beat note. On Thursday miners ignored the further slide of precious metals. The future expiration day indeed gave rise to usual shenanigans, with volume selling to inflict some blood letting on leveraged longs. On Friday precious metals showed a timid recovery, enough for mining investors to jump on the bandwagon again, after the first major correction we 've experienced in 2014. That didn't prevent the HUI index to posting a weekly loss of 4.77%. The ratio HUI/Gold further deteriorates to 0.174, but not after putting down a low of 0.168 on Wednesday. That kind of value we have last seen mid January. It also implies that in the correction, we've lost much of the accumulated gains of the whole recovery. You can check out on the graphs (HUI/Gold, Sil/Silver ...) on the GoldMinerPulse page.

Our “contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet" evolves in line, with a near 3.18% slide over the week (against an 4.77% loss for the HUI). The accumulated loss rises again to 26.46%. The cap weighed return deteriorates 4.6%, bringing the accumulated loss to 28.2%. On our list, there are only 5 gains against 17 losses over the week. Oceana Gold and Platinum Group Metals slid back into the red, whereas Miranda Gold recovered to join the few long term winners left. This brings us back to four picks up since inclusion against nineteen down.

I have added Wellgreen Platinum to the list, effective on Friday. The above accumulated loss data are registered before adding the new pick. Of course adding a new miner or explorer (starting at 0%) dilutes both loss (and profits whenever there might be.) WG is finalizing exploration on a platinum/palladium belt identified in the Yukon. The exploration & development costs are running high, implying an elevated cash burn. The potential is however very high. We hope and pray we won't be diluted into oblivion before Wellgreen gets taken over.

Gwyde
Sun, Apr 6, 2014 - 2:39pm Gwyde
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Turnaround without splendor

We started the week past with another slide for precious metals and miners on Monday. It didn't quite set the tone for the rest of the week as we alternated gains with losses. On Friday metals and miners ultimately chose the better side of the fence. The HUI ends the week up fractionally and so is the yellow metal, which means that HUI/Gold stays put. As our Contributor driven Explorer & Junior miner spreadsheet upheld better than did the HUI (we enjoyed a couple of unexpected positive surprises), now is the time to pay the piper. The burst of enthousiasm has waned and some of the high flyers faced profit taking. Our list is down fractionally with the accumulated loss stiffening to 26.39%. Cap weighed we are nearly flat. Over the week, 13 picks are up against 11 down. Miranda gold sold off and dipped into the red again. Platinum Group Metals gains 5%: enough to join the long term winners. Finally Wellgreen Platinum ended its first week on the list up. We now are 5 picks up against 19 down over the long haul. Every cloud has its silver lining...

Gwyde
Sun, Apr 13, 2014 - 11:50am
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No escape from the downtrend

Over the week past, precious metals tended to recover from their first major correction in 2014. Gold still posts above $1300, with a 1.24% weekly gain, closing at $1318.5 on Friday. Silver once more lags with a meager 0.1% gain and again closing at $19.98, withing a sigh of the $20 fence. With major stock markets extending their correction last week, gold miners didn't enjoy any profits from precious metals recovering. The HUI index lost 0.4% over the week, sending HUI/Gold down to 0.171. The graphs on the GoldMinerPulse page include all updates as of April 11. There is no escape from the downtrend so far.

Much the same accounts for our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet. Our selection adds to its accumulated losses now posting a 29.1% loss. Only 5 picks are up over the week, against 17 down with Excelsior Gold and Monument Mining breaking even. Our 3% weekly loss is in line with GDXJ, one of our bench marks. What's worse is that we faced minor losses on 3 of the long term gains, pushing them into the red. That leaves us with only Moneta Porcupine and Ivanhoe Miners (Ivanplats) on the up side: very little to show off with.

Once more we have an opportunity for some new entries to the list at very decent prices. Any suggestions?

Gwyde
Mon, Apr 21, 2014 - 11:32am Gwyde
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Perseverance

Precious metals started off the short trading week with a bounce on Monday. This wasn’t the harbinger of what was to follow as we extended last week’s slide until the close on Maundy Thursday. Gold closed at 1294.6 and silver at $19.65, both ending at the down side of the fence. The graphs on the GoldMinerPulse page include all updates as of April 17. There is no escape from the downtrend so far, on the contrary. HUI/Gold firmly settles below 0.17: a level we were at heading off into 2014. Most of the gains of past recovery have vaporized. We’re back to square one.

Precious metals start off the new week extending their slide in thin markets (Easter Monday Bank Holiday across Europe). Once more flares of violence in the Ukraine are unable to inspire the gold longs, after they have faced the usual shenanigans driving down the gold price below its emerging recovery trend after the Crimean tension waned. The Syrian civil war has become a non-event in this perspective. For the crude price a different logic seem to hold as it resumes its uptrend well above $100.

As we see the gold shorts persevering, while celebrating the first anniversary of the gold plunge, it is time to take some distance and analyze some of the mechanism behind. I added my grain of salt checking out the intra-day fluctuations over the long run. See: Failure of a rigging scheme (?).

No update for the spreadsheet over the past trading week.

Gwyde
Sun, Apr 27, 2014 - 5:38am
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Relief rally

Gold started the week sliding to a new post January 2014 low, plunging well below $1280 intraday. The Thursday afternoon step-up ended the downtrend and on Friday gold rallied back to a $1303.8 close. The weekly gain is but a tiny 0,71%. Silver had a hard time crawling back and still closes the week at $19.73, barely up (+0.4%) since last week. Platinum group metals were off better and have been leading the recovery.

Gold miners, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS index, HUI, largely ignored the latest gold plunge. Miners started their rally back on Tuesday, two full days before the yellow metal. This same sequence of events marked the June 2013 gold market bottom. Over the week HUI/Gold is up to 0.1754 from below 0.17 last week. The graphs on the GoldMinerPulse page include all updates as of April 25.

Our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet was last updated on April 11. Over those two weeks we've witnessed another plunge of miners, largely offset by last week's rally. With a 0.25% retreat, our selection almost breaks even. The accumulated loss stands at 29.5%.

Over two weeks, we have 11 stocks up against 12 down, with Monument Mining breaking even. Ivanhoe mines and Romarco Minerals made double digit gains. Platinum Metals Group (PLG) once more joined long time winners. We now have 3 winners over the long haul, against still 21 down. Three of those have cut losses to single digits.

Gwyde
Sat, May 3, 2014 - 3:54pm Gwyde
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A Friday rally doesn't make our week

Precious metals have been retreating for most of the week, until the Friday rally mitigated the weekly loss to 0.25% with gold closing at $1300. Silver made a major slide, which a 2.3% Friday rally couldn't heal. The white metal still is down 1.37% over the week. Miners were retreating with the metals, except on Tuesday when gold closed nearly flat and gold miners were inspired by a better general stock market sentiment. Again the Friday rally doesn't make our week and the HUI closes at 226.56 down nearly 1% over the week. HUI/Gold gives way only marginally at 0.174. You find all updated graphs as of May 2 on the GoldMinerPulse page.

The selection of our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet ends the week down 0.73%, in line with the HUI index. We have 15 stocks down against 7 up with Pilot Gold and Miranda Gold unchanged. Excellon Resources and Ivanhoe Mines (Ivanplats), post a nice return, but Brixton Metals deepens its loss significantly and Moneta Porcupine dissipates what was left of its long term gains. Oceana Gold and Sandstorm Gold switch sides to the long term winners, but Platinum Metals Group once more joins the squadron of losers. Over the long haul, we now have 3 stocks up, against 20 down, with Moneta Porcupine flat since inclusion.

Changes to the list: a stock category column differentiates junior miners from developers or explorers, with project generator Miranda and streamer Sandstorm gold a single item category. A second column also differentiates among the main metal in the resources for explorers or produced for miners. The column with the name of the contributor is omitted. (Made little sense as the only gains are among the 'draft' picks.)

Gwyde
Sun, May 11, 2014 - 6:20pm Gwyde
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Sliding all week long

Last Monday gold closed at $1309.7, which was going to be the highest close of the week. Miners already felt the weather changing as the HUI index barely moved up and the losses were outnumbering gains among juniors and explorers. Forces moving against gold were better economic macro data (some more FED speak by Yellen) and the ECB chairman Mario Draghi talking the euro down from its 24 month high, making the USD look stronger towards the end of the week. For gold bulls this means damage control. The yellow metal slid below $1300, but from the Wednesday close ($1289.9) onwards there barely was any change by the Friday close at $1290.1 or -0.84% over the week. Silver upheld less well giving way to $19.16 or a weekly loss of -1.54% on Friday.

Miners leveraged down precious metals weakening with the slide continuing all week. The HUI index lost 3.14% making HUI/Gold retreat to 0.1703. The graphs on the GoldMinerPulse page include all updates as of May 9. Among ETF's, GDX (-2.43%) does slightly better than the HUI, but the other ETF's show a more grim picture. GDXJ: -4.25%, GLDX: -4.65% and SIL -4.07%.

We didn't do any better on our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet where the aggregated loss is up to -33.51%, down close to 5% over the week. With only two picks up marginally over the week (Aurcana and Pretium) and Platinum Group Metals flat, we face 21 stocks sliding. Four double digit losses (Brixton metals, Monument Mining, Eurasian Minerals and Romarco Minerals) make this week hard to digest.

Gwyde
Wed, May 14, 2014 - 3:52am
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Only PVG

Pretium (PVG) is about the only miner I'm interested in these days.

As the miner destruction game continues into 2014. same ole same ole so far. as expected.

good luck to all.

Sun, May 18, 2014 - 3:11pm Gwyde
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Structural sentiment deterioration

Looking beyond the day-to-day fluctuations of precious metals and miners, a more fundamental tendency is revealed when plotting the NYSE Arca gold miners index (HUI) relative to gold. This is the first graph on the GoldMinerPulse page. Over six months, we clearly see the December bottom, where HUI/Gold bottomed below 0.16. The recovery took us with severral starts and pull-backs close to 0.19 by mid March. Since this is relative valuation, it means that miners have been outperforming gold by 20% on the way up. Over two months later, there is little left of that optimism. Gold is well off its high, unable to sustainably uphold $1300/oz. Last week we once more leapfrogged that level to slide back on Thursday. What's worse is that with every such cycle, gold mining stocks seem to erode: HUI/Gold now is down to 0.1679 from 0.1703 last week. Nevertheless the yellow metal is marginally higher (+0.2%) on a weekly basis. The HUI however lost 1.12%. This is back to the 2013 logic, where stagnation means deterioration for miners. Technically, HUI/Gold is about to make a 'death cross' as the 50 dma is tending to fall below the 200 dma. All of this doesn't bode well for gold miners.

Where does that bring our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet? We are down close to 1% (grossly in line with the HUI). Seven picks are up against 15 down, with Moneta Porcupine and Brixton Metals flat. Pretium rose 9.47% over the week, joining the long term winners. Platinum group metals also switched camp to the winners side, which brings us back to 4 explorers/juniors up against 20 down over the long haul. The aggregatted loss now adds up to 34.17% again. Cap weighed that translates to 31.92%, since the nano-caps on average did even worse than other juniors.

Gwyde
Sat, May 24, 2014 - 8:07pm Gwyde
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Intra-day volatility

Broad stock markets end a choppy week rallying higher, with a 1900 close on the S&P. However, very little movement on the precious metals market since Friday May 16. The yellow metal is flat on the Comex close, while silver books a tiny gain (+0.57%). The week closing flat however hides the intra-day volatility we've witnessed. Gold hopped over $1300 several consecutive days, only to slide back towards the Comex close. On Monday, both LBMA gold fixings were above $1300. A lackluster week for the HUI miners index ending 0.4% lower on balance. This deteriorates the HUI/Gold ratio a little to 0.1672. More is shown on the graphs of the GoldMinerPulse page.

Mixed blessings for our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet. I have left out Brixton Metals (BBB.V) after last week. If now you notice that stock up several hundred percent, this is due to the 10:1 share consolidation, which has not been taken into account (not on Yahoo, and not even on the TSX site). Nine picks are up against twelve down, with Monument Mining and Platinum Group Metals flat over the week.

Unfortunately several of our long term winners were on the losing side last week. Ivanhoe Mines, Oceana Gold and Pretium Resources slid into the red again. This leaves us with a tiny long term gain for PLG, while both Miranda Gold and Moneta Porcupine are flat since inclusion. The aggregated loss on the list now adds up to 33.41%. (The 'technical' improvement of 1.15% hides a 0.82% loss over a constant list composition.)

Gwyde
Sun, Jun 1, 2014 - 3:05pm Gwyde
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Another lost season for miners

Two weeks ago, I 've been pointing to the HUI:Gold ratio about to make a death cross and how this didn't bode well for the near future. This was spot on unfortunately. Last week, gold has been grinding lower without interruption. Miners leveraged down the gold plunge till Wednesday but then made a mild counter-trend recovery. On Friday miners have been struggling to keep afloat with precious metals aggravating their loss towards the week-end. You find all of this in the first graph on the GoldMinerPulse page. On balance HUI:Gold still ends the week down to 0.163. There is very little left of the early 2014 recovery.

No escape for the contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet: the list is down close to 4% last week, with an aggregated loss now amounting to 36%. We have no long term winners left on the list; PLG is the only pick left at break-even since inclusion. Weekly losses almost across the board, with only three picks posting a tiny gain. Aurcana silver however is the only one down double digits (-10.45%).

After yet another failed rally, investor sentiment is worn out... as confirmed by the lack of forum activity.

Gwyde
Sat, Jun 7, 2014 - 5:34pm Gwyde
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Off the lows ...

There always is some interpretation being done 'justifying the gold trend'. Ultimately the gold slide was attributed to 'el niño' about to cause less abundant monsoon rains and a poor harvest in India. Now Mario Draghi with the negative bank deposit rate at the ECB seems having curbed the trend, unless it is the announced Swiss referendum suggesting to back up the franc with 25% of gold and calling for prohibition of all gold leasing operations. On balance gold is flat over the week (+0.08%) while silver adds 1.06% bringing it back above $19. Hence, any upbeat sentiment is slightly out of place. Miners are off the lows: with HUI/Gold improving a little to 0.1665, the HUI posts a 2.5% gain over the week. You find much more on the GoldMinerPulse page.

The contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet mirrors the broader gold miners index, with a gain of 3.24%. There are 14 list components up, against 7 down with Miranda gold and Monument mining flat over the week. Oceana Gold made it above break even and Platinum group metals also chose for the green after its touch-down at break-even. Eurasian minerals, Timmin's gold and Pilot Gold make a double digit gain over the week and are cutting their losses significantly. Among the 7 components down Moneta Porcupine is off worst with a near 6% loss it incurred on Friday.

Gwyde
Sat, Jun 14, 2014 - 7:54pm Gwyde
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Stealth miners rally

Broad stock market indexes did not recover from the mid-week slide and close fractionally lower since last week. Gold and silver are off their lows now; gold is confirming with a 1.88% gain over the week, closing at $1275.9 and silver even is gaining 3.47%, closing at $19.67 on Friday. Miners seem to engage in a stealth rally, leveraging up timid gains of the metals. The HUI firms 6.35% since last week: HUI/Gold firms to 0.1739, a level last seen in April. The weekly update of the GoldMinerPulse page provides more graphs and data.

The contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet mirrors the broader gold miners index, with a gain of 7.42%. There are 19 list components up, against 3 down with Eurasian minerals flat over the week. Pretium Resources and Sandstorm gold made it above break even which brings us back to 4 long term gains on the list. Platinum miners digested the plunge of PGM's better than might be feared after there is a good perspective on the length strikes in South-African platinum mines coming to an end. Wellgreen nevertheless is off worst with the only double digit loss over the week. This is more than compensated by 10 list components up double digits over the week, lead by Argonaut gold with a 22.9% rally.

Gwyde